Fatal Jewish Control of the United States Congress

[The following is total B.S.  American leaders cannot impose anything on Israel and everyone knows it.  As Ariel Sharon said, it is they who control us.  It will probably be obvious by summer, when the latest ZioNazi offensive against Hezbollah (and who knows who else) gets underway.  Three/fourths of the US House of Representatives side with Israel over the American people.]

Israel fears US wants to impose peace

By STEVEN GUTKIN (AP) – 2 hours ago

JERUSALEM — Israel’s hardline government is deeply worried that the U.S. will try to impose a Mideast peace deal, that the Palestinians might declare statehood unilaterally and that Washington could be moving to end tensions with Syria.

These fears underscore how the current differences between the U.S. and Israel go far beyond a still unresolved diplomatic row over Israeli settlement building. Instead, there is a deepening chasm between the visions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama, raising questions about the strength of the U.S.-Israeli alliance despite mutual pronouncements that the bond is unshakable. JRL117

Netanyahu fears Israel could be forced into unwanted concessions and its enemies’ hands will be strengthened. His government is pushing to keep the focus firmly on threats from Hezbollah, Hamas and — particularly — Iran and its disputed nuclear program.

Obama, in contrast, is speaking about the promises of peace and has taken a new unusual step, publicly characterizing Israeli-Arab strife as harmful to U.S. interests — which many interpreted as a prelude to taking action to push through a peace.

A forum of Israel’s top seven ministers met three times this week to try to find ways to warm the chilly relationship with the Obama administration, but failed to agree on any specific measures, such as stopping Jewish construction in east Jerusalem, officials said on condition of anonymity because the meetings were closed.

Israeli officials have been phoning U.S. congress members for help in repairing the ties that were damaged last month when Israel announced a massive new Jewish housing project in east Jerusalem during a visit by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. Palestinians hope to make that part of the city their future capital.

Israel still has not given its response to a series of demands Obama reportedly made in a tense meeting with Netanyahu in Washington on March 23. This has led to speculation that Netanyahu might be seeking to buy time in the hope that Obama would be less inclined to pressure Israel in the run-up to November’s U.S. congressional elections, in which Jewish American support is key.

U.S. frustration over the lack of progress on Mideast peace has led to a debate in the Obama administration over whether to propose an American peace plan that would clearly outline U.S. expectations. Israeli officials fear that would mean heavy pressure on them to make territorial compromises they have so far resisted.

“All those who support a forced solution are in fact making the solution much less probable,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon.

Israel has spent the past week trying to draw attention to the myriad threats it says it faces in the region.

As the U.S. prepared to reinstall an ambassador in the Syrian capital of Damascus, Israeli intelligence officials said this week they believe Syria was transferring deadly Scud missiles to Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, a claim Syria denied. Hezbollah admits it has been massively arming since its 2006 war with Israel, yet the timing of the statements suggested they may have also reflected Israeli concerns about Obama’s Syria policy.

Also, during annual Holocaust commemorations, Netanyahu raised Europe’s failure to act early to stop the rise of Nazi Germany in order to push Israel’s demands for stronger action to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

The U.S. and its allies accuse Iran of seeking to build a nuclear weapon, and Israel says it would be under direct threat. In Washington, senior military and intelligence officials warned that in about a year, Iran could amass enough nuclear material to build a bomb. Iran denies it has any intention to do so.

The current U.S.-Israeli friction might be an unavoidable outcome of having a liberal administration in Washington and a right-wing government in Israel. But with Israel’s international image in tatters following its bruising offensive against Hamas militants in Gaza last year — and with the U.S. badly in need of Muslim support to accomplish its goals in Afghanistan and Iraq — patience for Israel’s 43-year-old occupation of the Palestinians is wearing thin.

Driven by similar frustrations, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has floated the idea of unilaterally declaring statehood as early as next year — a proposal that led Israel’s foreign minister to threaten to annul past peace agreements and even annex parts of the West Bank.

The U.S.-Israel tensions also reflect a fair amount of irony. Israel is showing deep distrust for Obama even though what he is proposing could ensure Israel’s survival as a Jewish and democratic country — considering that Arabs will soon outnumber Jews in the lands comprising historic Palestine.

Netanyahu is reluctant to make territorial compromises mostly because he thinks they will jeopardize Israel’s security, but his hardline stance is liable to hinder his attempts to marshal international support for his overarching goal of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

U.S. Mideast envoy George Mitchell is due back in the region in the coming days to try to revive a plan to have the sides begin U.S.-mediated, indirect talks. Pressuring Netanyahu ahead of talks has so far proven ineffective. Doing so instead once talks have started — and a real peace plan is on the table — could bring the Israeli leader to a moment of truth, having to choose between his hawkish partners and a more moderate coalition, between compromise and keeping all the land.

Steven Gutkin is AP’s bureau chief for Israel and the Palestinian territories. AP writer Grant Slater contributed to this report.

Is India even a regional power?

Is India even a regional power?

Power to the people

Group Capt AG Bewoor

The Sin that is Committed by Killing One, Who Does Not Deserve to Be Killed, Is As Great as the Sin, of Not Killing One Who Deserves to Be Killed.
Mahabharat Udyoga Parva. Chapter 72, Verse 18

We entered the 21st century with the Y2K bust. The visionaries who predicted doomsday had to redeem their stature and come up with something quite different. At that point in time, the Indian Diaspora was flourishing, emails heralded monumental achievements of Indians, our girls had won most beauty pageants, Indian Armed Forces were unconquerable – recollect Kargil of 1999 and shooting of the Atlantique – our economy was expanding; things looked hunky-dory for good old Bharat. In this exuberant ambience we were told that the 21st century belongs to Asia, and it caught every Indian’s imagination.

Western intelligentsia, we said smugly, looks at India with respect. India with China will decide international matters for a century, we argued. Finally, our 5,000 year old civilisation is getting its place in the sun. India has arrived.

This euphoria permeated the psyche of the Indian Armed Forces and ‘Think Tanks’ comprising mainly retired military officers. They started writing and expounding theories and critiques on why India must become a regional power, especially since the West is saying so. The source of this astounding deduction seemed to be the single Super Power, the US. Unfortunately we ignored the fact that policies and doctrines emerging from the US on use and impact of military power have failed consistently after the Second Great War, and that many American doctrines during World War II were utter failures too. But since the victor writes history, they were smothered. So here we were, in 2001 CE, basking in the assumed glory of becoming the Regional Power. No one asked why we should become a Regional Power. Strange?

This article may be construed as a diatribe against preferred thought, and seems defeatist. On the contrary, it is time for the Indian Armed Forces, and their mentors in and out of Government, to question favourite theories and pleasant conclusions based on unsubstantiated and easily demolished deductions that please the ego, but not the soul.

What Does It Mean?

First, it is pertinent to remind ourselves that we have essentially been branded as a Regional Power by the US and her partners. But what does being a Regional Power mean in real terms? Are we to police this region? If yes, do we have the capability to do it? Do we have the military, bureaucratic and most of all political courage to become the Regional Policeman?

Events from 2001 till now have proven otherwise.

Does Regional Power mean that other powers should consult us before engaging militarily/ economically/ diplomatically in this region? But the US and its allies never bothered to tell, let alone ask India, before they intervened in Afghanistan/ Pakistan. Has China talked to us before their interactions with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar? In fact does any nation of this region seek India’s advice before making agreements with other nations of or outside this region?

The answer to each of these questions is a No.

If we take the way ahead to become a Regional Power, will this change?

Doubtful. To be able to project power, we bought Admiral Gorshkov from Russia and named her Vikramaditya. But where is the ship? Where is that power on high seas? Our horizon does not even show the outline of a carrier.

The Arihant (the lead ship of India’s Arihant class of nuclear-powered submarines) has not been armed as yet, and we do not have a indigenously manufactured fighter/bomber. Nor do we have the Missile regime that makes the military might of a Regional Power credible. Our Main Battle Tank is an utter failure. How then can we call ourselves a Regional Power? Who accepts or even believes that India is, or can be a Regional Power?

No one.

Is there not something amiss in this perception? How can there be ‘a way ahead’, when we do not have the means to pave the path?

Readers may be probably getting annoyed at the direction this article is taking? It is intentional.

Do they know?

What type of governance have we shown since the dawn of the 21st Century? What reliability and continuance of policies, both internal and external have we demonstrated to the world? Who were the visionaries and planners that we showcased to buttress the mantle of Regional Power? All our luminaries are abroad.

Has our infrastructure in transportation on land, air and waters been enhanced as befits a Regional Power? Have we come anywhere close to the energy demands that are imperative to be a Regional Power? Has the Government of the day, NDA or UPA, shown the tidiness and resolve of an aspiring Regional Power? Has our ability to educate Indians to behave as a Regional Power been honed and upgraded? Have Governments, both Central and State, taken appropriate actions to secure India and Indians?

Once again the answer to each question is a sad No. How then can we write so laudably and convincingly about the way ahead, when there is no one to tread that path?

Just soldiers, sailors and airmen with some paramilitary thrown in for colour, do not make a Regional Power. How has our Cabinet functioned under crisis? What quality of administrative advice is given by bureaucrats from Finance, Energy, Defence, Intelligence, Agriculture, Security, to the political leadership? Is that advice evident to Indians and other nations? How pliant is the Cabinet to political party bosses? Are the powerful ‘behind the scene’ actors aware of what a Regional Power means, or do they just parrot the jargon?

There has been much dismay at India not getting a permanent seat in UNSC, and we have blamed others for this. But we have never accepted that governance in India has been of consistent poor quality, and just being the second largest nation in Asia with one billion plus population, and about a million strong army, does not qualify for permanent seat in UNSC. India herself is to blame for remaining just another member of UN. The basic cause for this embarrassment is poor governance over many years, with no visible signs of change for the better. How can there be ‘a way ahead’ as a Regional Power if we are unable to govern ourselves?

Forget about a Regional Power, even an ordinary power keeps its military closely associated in their decision making process. Indian bureaucracy and its political patrons make sure that that faujis are the last to know about decisions that intimately and intricately involve military forces. This is not the hallmark of a Regional Power. The dictum that military must remain under civilian control does not mean keeping the military out of the decision making loop. It means closely integrating military advisers for all decisions that may or may not demand military action, and finally making a decision that is binding on all elements of Indian governance.

Media reports now talk of getting a military adviser to tackle the Naxal menace. It has taken the Indian politico-bureaucratic-police establishment more than 30 years to realise that military advice on Naxals may be worthwhile. Is this how a Regional Power functions? Other nations observe the patterns of Indian governance, and decide whether India can be ignored, and we are disregarded. How can a civilian centric decision to engage in a military campaign succeed, if military advice is not taken from the start?

But the disdain that bureaucrats and politicians have for the military, results in poor strategic military decisions like IPKF, Parakram, Cease Fire of 1947-48, the return of 93,000 POWs to Pakistan without any quid pro quo, the return of Haji Pir salient in 1965, non-use of the IAF fighters in 1962, and many more. What is frightening is that others know about it, but Indians are blissfully ignorant, and with more than 75 percent of the educated populace unaware of its military capability, such a nation cannot be a Regional Power. The military is prohibited from informing their civilian brethren about the gaping holes in the decision matrix, thus preventing public debate and outcry. This is not the hallmark of a Regional Power.

How can we ‘go ahead’, if there is no one to tread the path?

Military Umbrella?

Which ‘umbrella’ is being alluded to? Is there a nation in this region that will accept Indian Military Umbrella (IMU)? When the Indian military hierarchy is surprised by its own Government about the Course of Action, who will accept cover under this fragile and poorly administered arrangement?

Even laymen know that when the military is screened from military decisions, the result has to be a failure, the umbrella becomes unreliable.

A Regional Power does not get sucked into dead-end military adventures that are doomed to fail. When super powers are failing, we without the wherewithal, want to offer a tattered umbrella? Our airborne assault in Maldives in Nov 88, was successful despite civilian-bureaucratic, and to some extent military gung-ho attitudes. Lady luck played a greater role than strategic decision making. Notwithstanding that more than 20 years have elapsed, the process remains unchanged. It is pertinent to warn ourselves of the dangers of being overwhelmed by jingoistic jargon like ‘Study of Contemporary Conflicts’, ‘Comprehensive National Power’, ‘Hard and Soft Power’, ‘From Euro-Atlantic West to Asia’. Goldman Sachs says that India has 4th largest GDP, and she will be a developed nation by 2050. These are doctored reports, controlled by the host nation to place India on a pedestal, saying that the path we follow is correct creating a false sense of well being, though evidence shows otherwise.

We fail to remind ourselves that the very same West feared an undivided India and created a permanent schism in our sub-continent. Economic disinformation campaigns by super powers have caused untold misery across the globe, and we are falling into that trap.

What kind of Indian Military Umbrella can we build without a strong, reliable, accountable, and efficient Defence industry? DRDO, PSUs and Ordnance Factories have floundered for ages. The world knows it, the regional nations know it, the Govt of the day knows it, the military knows it, but ordinary Indians are blissfully unaware that military hardware with the soldier, sailor and airman is unreliable and certainly not ‘state-of-the-art’ as befits a Regional Power. The equipment supplied to the Armed Forces, Paramilitary, Police hinders rather than enhancing their fighting capability. The INSAS rifle, Arjun tank. Indra radar, Aakash, Nag, Kaveri, LCA, Saras, armoured jackets, winter clothing, simple webbing, are significant failures in content, time frames, effectiveness, reliability, robustness.

What military umbrella can India offer with unreliable design, manufacturing and maintenance from her Defence Industries? Where is ‘the way ahead’ for India to be a Regional Power, when her military might is poorly supported by indigenous industry? The private sector can willingly take over defence production if we hand over most of our DRDO, Ordnance Factories and PSUs that have consistently failed India. Military umbrellas demand uninterrupted support by reliable, disciplined, innovative industrial capacity, not behemoths that exist as job creation cesspools controlled by self serving politico/bureaucratic powers.

Human Resources – Our Youth

To be considered a Regional Power, by ourselves and others, a well educated, healthy, motivated, disciplined youth needs to be the bedrock of our strength. Just witness the way we have callously destroyed our education system with crass political interference, regular messing around with syllabi, poorly paid teachers, inadequate infrastructure. Are these the hallmark of a Regional Power? Higher education is an uncontrolled disaster. IIM and IIT products seek avenues outside India, and we have encouraged this trend with gross salary in dollars as evidence of huge success stories. There are no Mohans of Swades in real life, youngsters do not want to work towards making India a Regional Power. The dissatisfaction levels are scary, and politicisation of our under-graduate community is frightening. Who then will look at us as a potential Regional Power, and we want to remain so for another 90 years? The situation is comic. We want to be a Regional Power without the wherewithal in governance, military hardware, military inputs into decision making, educated and motivated youth, energy generation, food security, and to top it all, a political leadership that takes its cues from filial rather than professional unbiased advice. Central as well as State leadership is created on family contacts rather than political acumen. Why should other nations of this Region have faith in such a flimsy political frame-work without any genuine signs of the youth wanting to remedy it?

Vibrant fallacy

The words ’vibrant democracy’ is so widely abused from all platforms that it feels like an advertisement, bombarding citizens with painful regularity. The sad truth is that there is nothing ‘vibrant’ about our democratic processes, nor about our parliamentarians and legislators. We just cannot get rid of acknowledged criminals from politics, we just cannot insulate the Police from vibrant interference by politicians, nor can we have politics without the family tree. Look at the innumerable ‘first families’. Does a Regional Power depend on the whims and fancies of a few families? Why in heavens name should any nation in this region be willing to get associated with India ruled by families rather than stand-alone politicians and unencumbered bureaucrats?

Efforts to inject meritocracy into politics is invariably junked by family pressures, as also by old timers who will not go away. Octogenarians with ossified minds and inability to appreciate today’s realities, makes one wonder what really is vibrant about our democracy? Who makes policies, ill informed matriarchs, or wise and experienced officers from the IAS?

The MEA does not even bother to send officers to attend courses at initial and mid-level military institutions where actual forces, strategies as well as tactics are discussed and war-gamed. Thus they do not understand military compulsions, limitations and capabilities. Witness their botching up of the Sri Lanka imbroglio with OP PAWAN, controlling operations from New Delhi through pliable military leadership. How on the earth will they have any idea of what it takes to defend India’s frontiers? The job of our foreign service is to ensure that India is surrounded by friends, but they have successfully created antagonistic neighbours, with full support from juvenile political leadership. As has been repeatedly said, Indian diplomats and the MEA will never let national interests interfere with their adherence to principles. This is not the characteristic and attribute of a Regional Power. The MEA bosses keep, insisting on the need to take a ‘holistic eagles’ view rather than look at issues like a ‘worm’. True, indeed true, but how can this part of India’s vibrant democracy, the MEA, ensure a holistic soaring eagle viewpoint if they remain wormlike and accept nothing from other equally vibrant elements of Indian democracy? Besides, unless these holistic and eagle eye viewpoints are debated publicly in the full glare of our media, they will remain the exclusive obstinate worm-like views espoused for the last 60 years. Behave like a tortoise you will be treated like one.

The Military Takeover Paranoia

There has been since Pandit Nehru’s time the false bogey of a military coup in India – a bogey mischievously nurtured by pliant incompetent politicians and abetted by wily civil servants. It was the basis for creating huge paramilitary forces as a counterpoise, to supposedly prevent that fearful military take-over. A more despicable and unwarranted canard without any substantiated evidence could not have been espoused and sustained. The total apolitical nature of the Armed Forces has been the strongest and unshakable pillar of Indian democracy, proven under greatest of provocation both during peace and war.

The shabby treatment meted out to the Armed Forces by bureaucrats and politicians at varying levels of hierarchy has been obnoxious and yet the Generals, Admirals and Air Marshals have strictly remained in their barracks. A more powerful democratic rock of India does not exist. Lackeys and sycophants of both the bureaucracy and its political leadership have sustained this bogey of a military coup, and is one of the shameful reasons why military leaders are excluded from the highest decision making groups, in which ironically, military strategies and even tactics are discussed and formalised. On many an occasions, gung-ho military leaders have added fuel to this atrocious fire. There is no soldier, sailor or airman who wants to take over governance of India and ruin the effectiveness or blunt the sharpness of the Indian military machine. This fact alone is the one mainstay that convinces the rest of the world that Indian democracy is thriving, vivacious and safe.

Stop press!

To effectively operate as a Regional Power, the nation needs a very responsible and mature media which can bear the burden of being part of that ‘power’. While the Fourth Estate must have its freedoms to ensure that the State does not impinge on other functions, it has some inescapable duties. It is no secret that our media is far from mature, and is unfailingly aping western media styles. Both print and electronic media have succumbed to jingoistic methods, making non-issues appear important with the infamous, ‘Breaking News’.

Editors, who have limited knowledge on governance, economics, security, education, agriculture, commerce, industry, military, espouse policies that reek of ignorance and borrowed information. TV anchors declare their critically analysed deductions before the issue has been understood and examined. They attempt influencing policy by their unfounded pronouncements only because of their unimpeded reach across, the ether. They demand ‘freedom of expression and the right to know’, but will not honour others freedom to know the truth as separated from media generated ‘facts’-amazing demands from the fourth Estate. Other nations will shy away from associating with a nation where their vital interests and confidential agreements, are twisted out of context and proportion by the media.

To top it all, the Indian media is heavily financed by non Indian institutions which effectively control what is broadcast and written, and blow up matters that serve their wicked designs. Very similar to bombastic definitions and dictums that emerge from Western Think Tanks which are well known for spreading misinformation to lull both adversaries and friends alike, into a false sense of well-being. That the 21st Century belongs to Asia is one such example. If indeed India and China are to determine what the world will do in the next this century, the first 10 years has not shown it to be so.

The Judiciary of a Regional Power

Finally, all disputes land up in a court of law. A Regional Power should have a judiciary that is above board and open to criticism. Indian judiciary is lacking in both vistas. Corruption, constantly being exposed at different levels in the judicial system including cronyism with the police on one hand, and criminals on the other, is frightening. Why should any nation agree to come under our ‘umbrella’ when it would well nigh involve getting embroiled with the Indian judiciary? A Regional Power does not display such unacceptable systemic infallibilities in its judicial system. The ban on suppliers of military hardware, ammunition for Bofors artillery, may be good in law, but it is stupid for the security of the homeland. Did the judge bother to consult any military official about the adverse impact if he ruled as he did? When a citizen objects it is contempt of court. What about contempt of India’s security? What about contempt of India and Indians? Why should any nation place its security under Indian military umbrella when it can be jeopardised by a judge who sees only the law?

High Investments to Regional Power

If the adult population of India is expected to support the desire to become a Regional Power, Indian governance will have to display better capabilities. Very high investments will have to be committed towards rising to the level of a Regional Power and remaining there. Can we commit such resources today and continue for another 10 years? Proponents of Regional Power say that ‘power is respected even if it whispers’. Observe the timidity demonstrated by India in response to anything the Chinese do with Tibet, Arunachal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Africa, and Dalai Lama.

Our overwhelming desire to appear non-aggressive stymies any positive reaction to not just China, but all other nations. So where is the power? What will we whisper? It will be a cry in the dark. Our most valuable investment is a disciplined, educated, well informed population that understands what it means to be a Regional Power , what sacrifices will be necessary and for how long. What rich dividends can Indians expect in return for supporting the vision of a Regional Power? Will it generate greater respectability, increased influence, and larger share in trade in the region? If not why should Indians forfeit their due for this illusory position? We hesitate to ask this question because the ego knows the answer is negative.

Road less travelled

The proverbial synergy that is an elemental imperative is far from evident in the Armed Forces. The unhealthy competition between them for positions, appointments, and budgets has been the main trap-door that bureaucrats consistently open with willing support of their political masters. We have been falling victim to their guile, always and every time. Increasing defence expenditure is not the panacea to become a Regional Power. The bureaucrats and technocrats must also believe in the benefits of being a Regional Power, and initiate processes towards that aim. It is the sacred duty of the media to correctly inform us about India’s move towards becoming a Regional Power, and how it is beneficial. Unless the regional countries accept and declare Indian governance, industry, technology, and military strength as the best option for progress, how can the average Indian see a personal benefit in supporting the concept of Regional Power? This average Indian must see his ‘stake’ blossom in making India a Regional Power. Is it there?

Why Should We Become a Regional Power?

Is it not amazing that not one proponent of India becoming a Regional Power has clarified as to why India should become a Regional Power?

We entered into the Indo-Sri Lanka accord wanting to behave like a Regional Power, but failed miserably. We tried to influence events in Nepal, and failed. We have been utterly unsuccessful in dealing with Bangladesh’s support and protection to insurgents, the problem of enclaves, and their cosying up with China. Myanmar has not done enough to prevent insurgency and drugs even though we have been embarrassingly silent on their human rights record. Pakistan needs no mention, and our influence in Af-Pak affairs is dismal. Maldives and Bhutan are possibly the only nations where we are able to shape things our way.

There is a terrible mismatch between what we can do, what we have done so far, what we are permitted to do by the nations in our region, what our internal incongruities and dissonance prevents us from doing, and the unattainable desire to become a Regional Power. But the question remains, why do we wish to become a Regional Power? What gains does the ordinary Indian get? After all he will have to pay for this status in various ways, and as said earlier, becoming a Regional Power demands heavy, continuous and prolonged investments. We have not demonstrated that capacity for investment, nor have we shown the willingness to modify our methodology of synergising all elements of governance. Why do we wish to become a Regional Power? When this question is repeatedly asked, and satisfactorily answered for all to understand, then we can proceed.

Instead of researching, advocating and insisting on a path to become a Regional Power, let’s find a wide road to become a power within. Let our strategists and thinkers concentrate on getting our act together. Let us forget about influencing events from Khyber Pass to Elephant Pass to Yangoon to Lhasa to Chittagong to Male to Karachi.

We need to look at and resolve our ills and inadequacies in Sopore, Imphal, Jharkhand, Kalahandi, Telangana, Vidarbha. We must destroy rampant corruption, controlled inefficiency, poor political leadership, piteous infrastructure, gross indiscipline, disregard for the rule of law, and many more ailments that India and Indians suffer from.

Let us first become a ‘power within’. We will then not need to project ourselves as a Regional Power. Others will approach us to assume that role.

Group Capt Bewoor was commissioned into the Transport stream of the IAF in Oct 1965. He has flown more than 5000 hours on 11 types of aircraft. He was a Cat A flying instructor, an Air Force Examiner, and one of the 12 pilots selected for conversion onto IL 76 in USSR in 1984. Groupie Bewoor commanded 44 SQn with IL-76s and led the Airborne Assault into Maldives on 03 Nov 1988. He was the Senior Instructor at DSSC Air Wing for three years.

By the same author: Defence PSUs : The great betrayal

Benazir may have died for seeking better Indo-Pak ties

Benazir may have died for seeking better Indo-Pak ties

Benazir Bhutto


United Nations A possible link between Benazir Bhutto’s ‘independent’ position on improved relations with India with its implications for the Kashmir dispute, and her assassination has been drawn by a UN investigation made public on Friday.The brutal killing of the 54-year-old Bhutto in a gun and suicide attack outside a park in Rawalpindi in December 2007 could have been “prevented” but the then military ruler Pervez Musharraf’s government had failed to protect her despite serious threats, according to the report.

The 65-page report by a three-member independent panel headed by Chile’s UN ambassador Heraldo Munoz was handed over to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. The investigation was undertaken at the behest of the Pakistan government.

Unable to pinpoint who killed Bhutto, the panel said her assassination was “shrouded in mystery” and recommended the setting up of a “truth commission” to find who murdered Pakistan’s first woman Prime Minister.

Such a Commission should follow “all leads and reasonable hypothesis, including Al Qaeda, Taliban and members of the so-called “establishment” consisting of elements of military commanders, ISI, allied political parties and business partners, it said.

The damning report underlines that Bhutto faced threats from several sources, including Al-Qaeda, Pakistani Taliban, other Jihadist groups and “establishment”.

Among the positions taken by Bhutto that “touched” the “establishment’s” concerns was “her independent position on the urgent need to improve relations with India, and its implications for the Kashmir dispute, which the military had regarded as its policy domain.”

Another source of concern to the “establishment” was Benazir’s “alleged willingness to compromise Pakistan’s nuclear programme and allow greater Western access to it.”

Many sources interviewed by the Commission “believe that the establishment was threatened by the possibility of Ms Bhutto’s return to the public office and that it was involved in or bears some responsibility for her assassination,” the report said.

This analysis, it said, is based on “years of observation and knowledge of how the establishment works, although they do not offer any specific evidence with regard to the Bhutto assassination.”

The report severely rebuked Pakistan’s spy agency ISI for interfering in criminal investigations after Bhutto’s assassination. ISI and the police had “deliberately failed” to properly probe the murder.

The investigators said that besides passing on messages of the serious threats to Bhutto, no proactive measures were taken by the authorities to neutralise the danger.

“This pervasive involvement of intelligence agencies in the diverse spheres, which is a open secret, has undermined the rule of law and distorted civil-military relations,” Munoz said, noting that the ISI played a pervasive and clandestine role in every aspect of Pakistani society.

The panel held that after the suicide attack, Bhutto was left vulnerable in a severely damaged vehicle to hospital while the backup bullet proof Mercedes departed prematurely.

There was no autopsy carried out on Bhutto in the Rawalpindi hospital on the orders of the police chief.

Pak used terrorists as a tool in Kashmir: UN

Pak used terrorists as a tool in Kashmir: UN

Agencies

United Nations Pakistan’s powerful spy agency ISI continues to have close links with Lashkar-e-Taiba and has used the terror group’s services to foment anti-India passion in Kashmir and elsewhere, a UN report said today.”The Pakistani military organised and supported the Taliban to take control of Afghanistan in 1996. Similar tactics were used in Kashmir against India after 1989,” said the much-awaited report by UN-appointed independent panel to probe the killing of former Pakistan premier Benazir Bhutto.

The three-member panel concluded that such a policy of the Pakistan military to use terrorists as a tool to achieve its strategic objectives against its neighbours resulted in active linkages between elements of the military and the Establishment with radical Islamists at the expense of national secular forces.

Noting that the jihadi organisations are Sunni groups based largely in Pakistan’s Punjab, the 65-page report said that members of these groups aided the Taliban effort in Afghanistan at the behest of the ISI and later cultivated ties with Al-Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban groups.

“The Pakistani military and ISI also used and supported some of these groups in the Kashmir insurgency after 1989. The bulk of the anti-Indian activity was and still remains the work of groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, which has close ties with the ISI,” said the panel headed by Chile’s UN ambassador Heraldo Munoz.

“A common characteristic of these jihadi groups was their adherence to the Deobandi Sunni sect of Islam, their strong anti-Shia bias, and their use by the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies in Afghanistan and Kashmir,” the report said.

It said that while several Pakistani current and former intelligence officials told the Commission that their agencies no longer had such ties in 2007, but virtually all independent analysts provided information to the contrary and affirmed the ongoing nature of many such links.

The report said Qari Saifullah Akhtar, one of the founders of the extremist Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami (HuJI), was reportedly one of the ISI’s main links to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and is believed to had cultivated ties to Osama bin Laden, who lived in Afghanistan during that period.

“Akhtar’s one-time deputy Ilyas Kashmiri, who had ties with the Pakistani military during the Afghan and Kashmir campaigns, had been a senior aide to bin Laden’s deputy Ayman al Zawahiri,” it said.

“It was such links and connections between elements in the intelligence agencies and militants, which most concerned Bhutto and many others who believed that the authorities could activate these connections to harm her. Given their clandestine nature, any such connection in an attack on her is very difficult to detect or prove,” the report said.

Acidifying two little sisters

Acidifying two little sisters

We had barely recovered from the state of shock that engulfed us when a prominent leader from Balochistan brazenly defended the burial of women alive as a part of Baloch code of honor, now we see the emergence of a self-proclaimed Baloch Ghaerathmand (honored) Group that is staunchly discouraging women’s participation in the affairs of the society. Throwing of acid on the faces of two orphan sisters from a very poor family in Dalbandin, at Chagai district of Balochistan, by a shadowy organization earlier this week is the most alien and outrageous act the Baloch society has ever experienced in centuries.

In the latest contemptible attack, unidentified persons riding a motorcycle acidified the faces of two sisters, Gul Jamal, 11, and Gul Babu, 13, in Qili Hashim area of Chagai district. Their faces were terribly burnt after the attack. For a moment, they remained in a dilemma: Local doctors suggested the immediate shifting of the two teenaged sisters to Quetta, the provincial capital, for immediate medical treatment while the girls, on their part, were too poor to afford the traveling and treatment expenses. At the end of the day, it was the members of the local community who made contributions to ensure the timely shifting of the girls to Quetta’s Bolan Medical Complex (BMC).

After a similar attack by Taliban in Chaman last year when two women were attacked with acid on their faces, it was the second incident of its kind in Balochistan to have ever taken place. What is striking is the fact that Baloch areas, widely adored for their secular and democratic credentials, have experienced a similar uncalled for attack on the women for the first time in the history. This particular attack did not occur unexpectedly. Local media reported a few weeks back that an unknown organization calling itself the Baloch Ghaerathmand Group had distributed pamphlets in the border town to warn the women not to get out of their homes. The threatening letter said women should better stay inside their homes in order to meet with the Baloch code of honor. In case they tried to get out of their homes while wearing ‘seductive clothes’ or went outside without being accompanied by a male member of the family, they would be severely reprimanded with acid thrown on their faces.

Initially, no one took the threat very seriously in the area for the following reasons. Firstly, threatening or harming women is a very alien practice in the Baloch society. An attack on women is considered as an act of cowardice and contradictory to the Baloch code of honor.

Secondly, the threat was issued by an unknown organization which has had no history of carrying out operations in Dalbandin or any other part of Balochistan in the past. There is no proof of this organization having links with the mainstream active armed groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Liberation United Front (BLUF), Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), Baloch Republican Army (BRA) and Lashkar-e-Balochistan (LeB).

Thirdly, restrictions on women’s mobility are commonly known as a religious phenomenon rather than a nationalistic trend. None of the Baloch political parties or the armed groups has asserted such a passionate inclination towards Taliban-like version of Islam. Nationalists have historically been very tolerant, respectful and accommodative of women’s movement. Women’s movement outside their homes to visit relatives and neighbors, work at farms, fetch water and purchase kitchen items from the neighboring shops have been an intrinsic part and parcel of the Baloch culture for ages.

Police in the area have not succeeded in tracing the roots of the elements responsible for this callous attack on innocent Baloch girls. This incident has, however, alerted many supporters of the Baloch nationalist movement. Was this case really perpetrated by the Baloch resistance forces or was the Baloch card used simply to settle some personal/tribal scores? Worst still, has radical Islam taken the Baloch movement hostage in the bordering districts of Balochistan located close to Afghanistan?  There are no clear answers to these questions at this point.

The National Party (NP), a Baloch nationalist political group, has denounced the assault on the Baloch girls in Dalbandin by staging a demonstration along with the local chapter of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) which indicates the strong displeasure of the local people towards the misuse of the Baloch nationalist card to attack women.

It is, however, deplorable that the larger political groups in Balochistan, the provincial government in Quetta and the human rights groups have not risen to the occasion yet to voice support for these innocent girls.

If the attack on the girls is in fact the sanctioned policy of the Baloch nationalists from now on, it is surely a mockery of contributions made by outstanding Baloch women like Banok Karima Baloch, Banok Shakar Bibi, Dr. Hani Baloch and several other brave daughters of the land for the Baloch national struggle. The Baloch movement will take a step backward if it joins the Taliban-like camp and endorses attacks on women. All the Baloch leaders should sit and publicly disassociate themselves with such barbaric acts.

The Balochistan government should take strict notice of the incident and conduct a through probe into the matter. The government and philanthropists should provide financial assistance to the two sisters under treatment in Quetta. They are the first, perhaps not the last, victims of an insane religion-cum-pseudo-nationalism-driven behavior.

U.S. shifts gears to tackle homespun terrorism

U.S. shifts gears to tackle homespun terrorism

Photo

A young Muslim American female student holds the U.S. flag during a ‘Children of the World’ student pageant in Dearborn, Michigan, March 26, 2010. A growing school of thought among counterterrorism specialists argues that law enforcement should engage more deeply with the Muslim community.

REUTERS/Rebecca Cook/Files

By Nick Carey

DEARBORN, Mich. (Reuters) – At a recent congressional hearing on homespun terrorism, Indiana Representative Mark Souder tore into a little-known Los Angeles County sheriff named Lee Baca.

Souder, a Republican member of the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment, pointedly asked why Baca had attended several fund-raisers for an American Muslim group that some describe as a front for Hamas, which is designated by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization.

“The question is, at what point do you start giving legitimacy to groups who fund Hamas?” Souder said. He was referring to Baca’s association with the Council On American-Islamic Relations, or CAIR, which says it does not support terrorism.

Raising his voice and pointing his finger at the congressman, Baca exploded: “For you to associate me (with terrorism) somehow through some circuitous attack on CAIR is not only inappropriate, it is un-American.”

In an interview with Reuters afterward, Baca said the congressman was playing politics. “Souder doesn’t have a solution for dealing with extremism in the United States,” he said. “I have a solution. I have a vision. I have relationships with the Muslim community and am working to make that vision a reality.”

The public altercation on March 17 between Souder, whose office did not return calls seeking comment, and Baca took place amid a significant shift in how the U.S. intends to deal with an alarming, relatively new threat: the recruitment of American Muslims, especially the young, by Islamist militants.

But the heated exchange also underlines the treacherous politics involved in adopting a new strategy that depends less on surveillance (though that won’t go away) and more on dialogue with the U.S. communities in danger of losing their most impressionable cohort to violent jihad.

DEALING WITH EXTREMISM

The administration of President George W. Bush prided itself on taking a hard line on terrorism. Part of its rationale for fighting a war on two fronts was, as Bush said in June 2005 speech, “taking the fight to the terrorists abroad, so we don’t have to face them here at home.”

But a recent spate of security incidents involving the American Muslims is considered by many as evidence that terrorists are already in the house.

“While our European counterparts have been dealing with the threat of radical extremism for some time now, I think we can all agree that the problem is now in the United States,” said Michael McCaul, the ranking Republican member of the subcommittee Souder serves on, at the March 17 hearing.

Teenagers are a top target for recruiters. “A lot of Muslim kids doubt that they belong here because they are made to feel like they are different and inferior, that somehow they are not American,” said Abed Hammoud, a political activist and prosecutor in the Detroit area. “That makes it potentially easier to recruit them.”

A growing school of thought among counterterrorism specialists, and within the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, argues that law enforcement should engage more deeply with the Muslim community. Their case has been bolstered by encouraging examples of outreach programs in the Netherlands, Britain and, closer to home, Los Angeles.

“There is no guarantee that we can stop every attack,” said Mike Rolince, a counterterrorism specialist who spent 31 years at the Federal Bureau of Investigation and now works for consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton and provides technological and strategic consulting services to the U.S. intelligence community. “But the best chance we have lies in sustained engagement with the Muslim community.”

As part of the shift, DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano, on Feb. 3, asked the department’s Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC) — which consists of state and local government officials, first responders, plus academics and private sector representatives — to come up with recommendations on how to overhaul its operations with an eye toward community-based law enforcement.

An official said that review would also focus on how to make the DHS less centralized and more of a resource centre for local law enforcement, plus how to fund, train and support those on the ground who are best placed to tackle homegrown terrorism.

“We are at a watershed moment where we are asking, what is the role of the Department of Homeland Security? What is the best way to use our resources?” said an official at the DHS, who was not allowed to talk on the record. “This problem is not going to be solved by someone from Washington.”

HSAC’s preliminary recommendations are due in May.

U.S. officials and members of America’s Muslim community say two recent incidents show that both sides want to engage each other. There was Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, charged with trying to detonate explosives in his underwear on a Northwest Airlines flight to Detroit on Dec. 25. His father had tried to alert U.S. authorities to his son’s growing radicalism in Nigeria last November, although his warning was not heeded.

That same month, a group of young Pakistani Americans known as the “Northern Virginia Five” were arrested in Pakistan, where they had gone to try to join the Taliban, after their parents were put in touch with the FBI by CAIR.

“This is a case study of cooperation and partnership,” said Nihad Awad, executive director of CAIR. “We should not waste this opportunity.”

POLITICS OF SECURITY

But outreach has the potential to turn political, with Democrats anxious not to appear soft on terrorism before the November elections and Republicans smelling opportunity. Opponents on the right are fiercely critical of this shift in counterterrorism strategy.

“Outreach is a joke,” said conservative commentator Debbie Schlussel, who advocates being tough on mosques and immigration. “Muslims don’t respect people who kowtow to them. I think they respect those whom they fear.”

Obama and Napolitano came under fire for their handling of the failed Dec. 25 bomb attempt, which fuelled Republican criticism that the president is weak on national security.

The expected reaction from the right, some say, has made the Obama administration nervous.

“The DHS is very, very skittish about outreach,” said a former government counterterrorism official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “They are being overly tentative because there are plenty of people on the right who want to portray the Obama administration as soft on terror.”

But outreach advocates say growing support for a policy shift in the intelligence community means while opposition will be stiff, it is not insurmountable.

“There has been a perceptible shift,” said Keith Ellison, who was elected America’s first Muslim congressman in 2006. “More and more Americans understand we need to reach out and stop demonizing an entire community. This (opposition to outreach) is still a powerful lobby, but I think in six months to a year their inflammatory voices will begin to be ignored.”

“A VERY TOUGH TIME FOR EVERYONE”

All told, Muslim community leaders say the eight plus years that have elapsed since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, have seen a massive and worrying breakdown in trust between Muslim Americans and U.S. authorities.

“Before 9/11, parents told kids that if they saw anything bad or suspicious they should find a police officer because the police were there to help,” said Ned Fawaz, a businessman in the Detroit area. “Today they tell kids to stay away from the police no matter what. That breakdown in trust is terribly sad.”

When 19 attackers hijacked four planes on Sept. 11, 2001, crashing two of them into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York and one into the Pentagon, Sam Abed had just finished law school. He passed the bar exam that October and started looking for a job.

A year later, he had sent out more than 1,000 resumes and had not had a single interview while classmates who graduated lower than him in his class all found work.

Frustrated and demoralized, Abed asked one of his law professors at the University of Richmond in Virginia for advice. The professor changed one word on his resume. He crossed out Abed’s real first name, Osama, and wrote ‘Sam.’

Abed sent out 12 resumes the next week and was offered three interviews. “I thought people wouldn’t judge me based on my name alone, but it apparently had an impact,” said Abed, who now works at the Virginia Department of Juvenile Justice. “It was a very tough time for me.”

“But it was a very tough time for everyone,” he added, philosophically. “I am not saying that the racism and discrimination that we saw after 9/11 was right, but it was understandable given the fear and anger that everyone felt.”

Estimates vary as to how many Muslims there are in America. No one knows for sure, in part because the U.S. Census Bureau does not ask people to list their religion.

According to a May 2007 study by the Pew Research Center, there were some 2.35 million Muslims in America. But the Association of Religion Data Archives put the number at almost 4.8 million in 2005. The majority of Americans, around 75 percent according to Pew, are Christians of various denominations.

One of the biggest complaints from American Muslims is that they say they are aggressively profiled by the government based on their religion, especially at airports — a charge that the U.S. Transportation Security Administration disputes. The TSA says its security measures are “based on threat, not ethnic or religious background.”

Many American Muslims say they have experienced greater harassment since the Dec. 25 “Underwear Bomber” incident. This has caused frustration because that incident is widely seen as a failure of the U.S. security system.

“Muslims have had to pay the price for the government’s mistakes,” said Imam Hassan Qazwini, a prominent moderate cleric at the Islamic Center of America in Dearborn, the country’s largest mosque.

TARGETING THE ALIENATED

Clark Ervin, director of the homeland security program at the Aspen Institute, was the DHS’s first inspector general and is a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council charged with looking at how to retool the department’s approach to law enforcement.

He said that common factors that contribute to leading impressionable minds down the path to violence are: a lack of economic opportunity; a limited education; strained family ties; a sense of impotence; alienation and grievance, plus a desire to be a part of something big and noble.

“We need to get ahead of that production curve and find out what causes the problem,” he said.

Imam Husham Al-Husainy, director of the Karbalaa Islamic Education Center in Dearborn, which is home to America’s largest Muslim community, says that every time he drives into Canada, he is held up at the border for hours at a time when he returns to the United States.

Al-Husainy said this treatment makes him worried for his 16-year-old son. “I am a grownup so I can understand what is happening. But I’m worried because what would happen if he started carrying hate in his heart because he’s treated differently than other Americans?”

Eboo Patel, executive director of the Chicago-based Interfaith Youth Core, said that there is a “pretty clear process that works like gang recruitment in inner city neighbourhoods.”

“The extremists have created a strong network of recruiters,” he said. “And they use a three-part story on recruits.”

“The narrative goes that we were meant to be and were once a magnificent people,” Patel added. “The trouble is, now we are the victims of oppression. You can help return us to glory. What you have to do is overthrow the oppressors.”

Radicalization is not, however, restricted to the young. Major Nidal Malik Hasan, 39, charged with 13 counts of murder and 32 counts of attempted premeditated murder following a rampage at Fort Hood Army base last Nov. 5, reportedly visited extremist websites and exchanged e-mails with radical Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki.

Zudhi Jasser, president of Phoenix-based American Islamic Forum for Democracy, a moderate group that advocates the separation of mosque and state, said Hasan’s biography was “freakishly similar to my own.” Both attended medical school and served in the U.S. armed forces. Hasan’s parents were Palestinian, Jasser’s came from Syria.

“I was raised by my parents to believe that we could be more Muslim here in America than anywhere else,” Jasser said. “Somewhere along the way, Hasan’s narrative obviously differed greatly from mine.”

In a report released last month, the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the Internet’s “limitless scope allows for the relatively unchecked proliferation of radical material.”

“These communications (between recruiters and recruits) often occurred online, whether via e-mail, Facebook, YouTube, or one of thousands of extremist chat rooms,” the report said.

Rolince of Booz Allen Hamilton, the consulting firm, echoed that view: “Now it’s harder to find recruiters because it’s easier to hide messages and to hide intent, and people can look at that content online in their basement, in libraries and coffee shops.”

Congressman Ellison, whose district in Minnesota includes a Somali community from which some two dozen young men were recruited to fight for an insurgent group in Somalia, said low-income teenagers with no prospects are easy targets.

“The sales pitch is ‘Come home to your country and rid it of foreign invaders,’” he said. “Kids coming from fractured families and low-income backgrounds find a way to get into trouble if given no opportunity. So we need to give them those opportunities.”

LOOKING TO EUROPE

U.S. counterterrorism specialists have looked to recent European experiences.

“Given the nature of its society, America has handled the integration piece well, so that Muslims feel like they are part of the culture,” said Stephen Grand, director of U.S. relations with the Islamic world at the Brookings Institution. “But the Europeans have handled the outreach piece better.”

A March 2009 bipartisan study compiled by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy titled “Rewriting the Narrative: An Integrated Strategy for Counterradicalization” looked at how the Dutch and British have tried to engage with their Muslim communities. The study praised the Netherlands for a “particularly innovative approach to countering radicalization at the local level.”

The Dutch approach employs an “information house” using networks of local Muslims to whom people can refer concerns about specific individuals. The aim is for the local community to handle situations itself without referring to local law enforcement unless there is imminent danger.

The British outreach project, called Prevent, was also held up as a good example. But that program has experienced its own difficulties, as the British government has found that intertwining outreach activities and law enforcement has fuelled suspicion among Muslim communities that the program has been used to spy on them.

In a U.S. case that could undermine efforts to encourage cooperation, an imam who previously had been helpful to law enforcement in New York is being deported after he pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI as they investigated a plot to attack the New York subway system.

The Aspen Institute’s Ervin said the shift in government thinking on outreach has also been greatly influenced by what the U.S. military “famously and disastrously” learned from direct experience as the 2003 invasion of Iraq turned into a long occupation.

“The military discovered in Iraq that reaching out to a community and involving local leaders brought much better results than working without them,” he said.

L.A. CONFIDENTIAL

As part of its policy review, the DHS’s Homeland Security Advisory Council is looking at the experience of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department under Lee Baca, who is on the council. His outreach program, as well as a Muslim Contact Unit, is staffed by Muslim officers. Los Angeles County is America’s most populous county with nearly 10 million residents and Baca heads the world’s largest sheriff’s department with more than 13,000 employees.

“We cannot afford to alienate the great portion of society that is Muslim by virtue of our ignorance,” Baca said of his outreach program. “I’m very well received in the Muslim community now, not because I’m special but because I know how to listen.”

Sergeant Mike Abdeen, who heads the unit, said that when he started in 2007 the reception from local Muslims was frosty at best.

“After what they went through post-9/11 with the FBI using informants and infiltrating the mosques, the Muslims thought we were here to gather intelligence on them,” Abdeen said. “It took a lot of daily contact and working with the community to prove that we are here to serve them too.”

“Now, if there is a problem people in the community will pick up the phone and talk to me,” he added. “They know me and they trust me.”

Chief Mike Grossman, who heads the department’s Homeland Security Division, said daily contact with the Muslim community had paid dividends. He said an American Muslim parent had approached him recently seeking advice about a son whose demeanor, dress and attitude had changed and he was now clearly becoming a devout Muslim.

“What this parent wanted to know was whether the signs they were seeing indicated their son was just being more devout or becoming radicalized,” Grossman said. “We were able to talk calmly about what signs to look for and how to tackle the issue.”

“This program is priceless,” he said. “Without personal daily contact and personal relationships, we would not have a clue what’s going on.”

(Additional reporting by Jeremy Pelofsky, Rebecca Cook, Tim Gaynor, William Maclean and Steve Holland; editing by Jim Impoco and Claudia Parsons)

Forget the Armenians, What About the American Indian Genocide?

Affirmation of the United States Record on the Armenian Genocide Resolution (Introduced in House)

[When will we see the following resolution, calling upon the US Congress to recognize the only unofficial genocide that must be acknowledged by the American people?  The American colonization reduced a Native Indian population from around 18 million to less than one million people, a genocide three times higher than that attributed to Adolph Hitler.

"Calling upon the President to ensure that the foreign policy of the United States reflects appropriate understanding and sensitivity concerning issues related to human rights, ethnic cleansing, and genocide documented in the United States record relating to the Native American Genocide, and for other purposes."]

Were American Indians the Victims of Genocide?

By Guenter Lewy

Guenter Lewy, who for many years taught political science at the University of Massachusetts, has been a contributor to Commentary since 1964. His books include The Catholic Church & Nazi Germany, Religion & Revolution, America in Vietnam, and The Cause that Failed: Communism in American Political Life.

On September 21, the National Museum of the American Indian will open its doors. In an interview early this year, the museum’s founding director, W. Richard West, declared that the new institution would not shy away from such difficult subjects as the effort to eradicate American Indian culture in the 19th and 20th centuries. It is a safe bet that someone will also, inevitably, raise the issue of genocide.

The story of the encounter between European settlers and America’s native population does not make for pleasant reading. Among early accounts, perhaps the most famous is Helen Hunt Jackson’s A Century of Dishonor (1888), a doleful recitation of forced removals, killings, and callous disregard. Jackson’s book, which clearly captured some essential elements of what happened, also set a pattern of exaggeration and one-sided indictment that has persisted to this day.

Thus, according to Ward Churchill, a professor of ethnic studies at the University of Colorado, the reduction of the North American Indian population from an estimated 12 million in 1500 to barely 237,000 in 1900 represents a “vast genocide . . . , the most sustained on record.” By the end of the 19th century, writes David E. Stannard, a historian at the University of Hawaii, native Americans had undergone the “worst human holocaust the world had ever witnessed, roaring across two continents non-stop for four centuries and consuming the lives of countless tens of millions of people.” In the judgment of Lenore A. Stiffarm and Phil Lane, Jr., “there can be no more monumental example of sustained genocide—certainly none involving a ‘race’ of people as broad and complex as this—anywhere in the annals of human history.”

The sweeping charge of genocide against the Indians became especially popular during the Vietnam war, when historians opposed to that conflict began drawing parallels between our actions in Southeast Asia and earlier examples of a supposedly ingrained American viciousness toward non-white peoples. The historian Richard Drinnon, referring to the troops under the command of the Indian scout Kit Carson, called them “forerunners of the Burning Fifth Marines” who set fire to Vietnamese villages, while in The American Indian: The First Victim (1972), Jay David urged contemporary readers to recall how America’s civilization had originated in “theft and murder” and “efforts toward . . . genocide.”

Further accusations of genocide marked the run-up to the 1992 quincentenary of the landing of Columbus. The National Council of Churches adopted a resolution branding this event “an invasion” that resulted in the “slavery and genocide of native people.” In a widely read book, The Conquest of Paradise (1990), Kirkpatrick Sale charged the English and their American successors with pursuing a policy of extermination that had continued unabated for four centuries. Later works have followed suit. In the 1999 Encyclopedia of Genocide, edited by the scholar Israel Charny, an article by Ward Churchill argues that extermination was the “express objective” of the U.S. government. To the Cambodia expert Ben Kiernan, similarly, genocide is the “only appropriate way” to describe how white settlers treated the Indians. And so forth.

That American Indians suffered horribly is indisputable. But whether their suffering amounted to a “holocaust,” or to genocide, is another matter.

II

It is a firmly established fact that a mere 250,000 native Americans were still alive in the territory of the United States at the end of the 19th century. Still in scholarly contention, however, is the number of Indians alive at the time of first contact with Europeans. Some students of the subject speak of an inflated “numbers game”; others charge that the size of the aboriginal population has been deliberately minimized in order to make the decline seem less severe than it was.

The disparity in estimates is enormous. In 1928, the ethnologist James Mooney proposed a total count of 1,152,950 Indians in all tribal areas north of Mexico at the time of the European arrival. By 1987, in American Indian Holocaust and Survival, Russell Thornton was giving a figure of well over 5 million, nearly five times as high as Mooney’s, while Lenore Stiffarm and Phil Lane, Jr. suggested a total of 12 million. That figure rested in turn on the work of the anthropologist Henry Dobyns, who in 1983 had estimated the aboriginal population of North America as a whole at 18 million and of the present territory of the United States at about 10 million.

From one perspective, these differences, however startling, may seem beside the point: there is ample evidence, after all, that the arrival of the white man triggered a drastic reduction in the number of native Americans. Nevertheless, even if the higher figures are credited, they alone do not prove the occurrence of genocide.

To address this issue properly we must begin with the most important reason for the Indians’ catastrophic decline—namely, the spread of highly contagious diseases to which they had no immunity. This phenomenon is known by scholars as a “virgin-soil epidemic”; in North America, it was the norm.

The most lethal of the pathogens introduced by the Europeans was smallpox, which sometimes incapacitated so many adults at once that deaths from hunger and starvation ran as high as deaths from disease; in several cases, entire tribes were rendered extinct. Other killers included measles, influenza, whooping cough, diphtheria, typhus, bubonic plague, cholera, and scarlet fever. Although syphilis was apparently native to parts of the Western hemisphere, it, too, was probably introduced into North America by Europeans.

About all this there is no essential disagreement. The most hideous enemy of native Americans was not the white man and his weaponry, concludes Alfred Crosby, “but the invisible killers which those men brought in their blood and breath.” It is thought that between 75 to 90 percent of all Indian deaths resulted from these killers.

To some, however, this is enough in itself to warrant the term genocide. David Stannard, for instance, states that just as Jews who died of disease and starvation in the ghettos are counted among the victims of the Holocaust, Indians who died of introduced diseases “were as much the victims of the Euro-American genocidal war as were those burned or stabbed or hacked or shot to death, or devoured by hungry dogs.” As an example of actual genocidal conditions, Stannard points to Franciscan missions in California as “furnaces of death.”

But right away we are in highly debatable territory. It is true that the cramped quarters of the missions, with their poor ventilation and bad sanitation, encouraged the spread of disease. But it is demonstrably untrue that, like the Nazis, the missionaries were unconcerned with the welfare of their native converts. No matter how difficult the conditions under which the Indians labored—obligatory work, often inadequate food and medical care, corporal punishment—their experience bore no comparison with the fate of the Jews in the ghettos. The missionaries had a poor understanding of the causes of the diseases that afflicted their charges, and medically there was little they could do for them. By contrast, the Nazis knew exactly what was happening in the ghettos, and quite deliberately deprived the inmates of both food and medicine; unlike in Stannard’s “furnaces of death,” the deaths that occurred there were meant to occur.

The larger picture also does not conform to Stannard’s idea of disease as an expression of “genocidal war.” True, the forced relocations of Indian tribes were often accompanied by great hardship and harsh treatment; the removal of the Cherokee from their homelands to territories west of the Mississippi in 1838 took the lives of thousands and has entered history as the Trail of Tears. But the largest loss of life occurred well before this time, and sometimes after only minimal contact with European traders. True, too, some colonists later welcomed the high mortality among Indians, seeing it as a sign of divine providence; that, however, does not alter the basic fact that Europeans did not come to the New World in order to infect the natives with deadly diseases.

Or did they? Ward Churchill, taking the argument a step further than Stannard, asserts that there was nothing unwitting or unintentional about the way the great bulk of North America’s native population disappeared: “it was precisely malice, not nature, that did the deed.” In brief, the Europeans were engaged in biological warfare.

Unfortunately for this thesis, we know of but a single instance of such warfare, and the documentary evidence is inconclusive. In 1763, a particularly serious uprising threatened the British garrisons west of the Allegheny mountains. Worried about his limited resources, and disgusted by what he saw as the Indians’ treacherous and savage modes of warfare, Sir Jeffrey Amherst, commander-in-chief of British forces in North America, wrote as follows to Colonel Henry Bouquet at Fort Pitt: “You will do well to try to inoculate the Indians [with smallpox] by means of blankets, as well as to try every other method, that can serve to extirpate this execrable race.”

Bouquet clearly approved of Amherst’s suggestion, but whether he himself carried it out is uncertain. On or around June 24, two traders at Fort Pitt did give blankets and a handkerchief from the fort’s quarantined hospital to two visiting Delaware Indians, and one of the traders noted in his journal: “I hope it will have the desired effect.” Smallpox was already present among the tribes of Ohio; at some point after this episode, there was another outbreak in which hundreds died.

A second, even less substantiated instance of alleged biological warfare concerns an incident that occurred on June 20, 1837. On that day, Churchill writes, the U.S. Army began to dispense “‘trade blankets’ to Mandans and other Indians gathered at Fort Clark on the Missouri River in present-day North Dakota.” He continues: Far from being trade goods, the blankets had been taken from a military infirmary in St. Louis quarantined for smallpox, and brought upriver aboard the steamboat St. Peter’s. When the first Indians showed symptoms of the disease on July 14, the post surgeon advised those camped near the post to scatter and seek “sanctuary” in the villages of healthy relatives.

In this way the disease was spread, the Mandans were “virtually exterminated,” and other tribes suffered similarly devastating losses. Citing a figure of “100,000 or more fatalities” caused by the U.S. Army in the 1836-40 smallpox pandemic (elsewhere he speaks of a toll “several times that number”), Churchill refers the reader to Thornton’s American Indian Holocaust and Survival.

Supporting Churchill here are Stiffarm and Lane, who write that “the distribution of smallpox- infected blankets by the U.S. Army to Mandans at Fort Clark . . . was the causative factor in the pandemic of 1836-40.” In evidence, they cite the journal of a contemporary at Fort Clark, Francis A. Chardon.

But Chardon’s journal manifestly does not suggest that the U.S. Army distributed infected blankets, instead blaming the epidemic on the inadvertent spread of disease by a ship’s passenger. And as for the “100,000 fatalities,” not only does Thornton fail to allege such obviously absurd numbers, but he too points to infected passengers on the steamboat St. Peter’s as the cause. Another scholar, drawing on newly discovered source material, has also refuted the idea of a conspiracy to harm the Indians.

Similarly at odds with any such idea is the effort of the United States government at this time to vaccinate the native population. Smallpox vaccination, a procedure developed by the English country doctor Edward Jenner in 1796, was first ordered in 1801 by President Jefferson; the program continued in force for three decades, though its implementation was slowed both by the resistance of the Indians, who suspected a trick, and by lack of interest on the part of some officials. Still, as Thornton writes: “Vaccination of American Indians did eventually succeed in reducing mortality from smallpox.”

To sum up, European settlers came to the New World for a variety of reasons, but the thought of infecting the Indians with deadly pathogens was not one of them. As for the charge that the U.S. government should itself be held responsible for the demographic disaster that overtook the American-Indian population, it is unsupported by evidence or legitimate argument. The United States did not wage biological warfare against the Indians; neither can the large number of deaths as a result of disease be considered the result of a genocidal design.

III

Still, even if up to 90 percent of the reduction in Indian population was the result of disease, that leaves a sizable death toll caused by mistreatment and violence. Should some or all of these deaths be considered instances of genocide?

We may examine representative incidents by following the geographic route of European settlement, beginning in the New England colonies. There, at first, the Puritans did not regard the Indians they encountered as natural enemies, but rather as potential friends and converts. But their Christianizing efforts showed little success, and their experience with the natives gradually yielded a more hostile view. The Pequot tribe in particular, with its reputation for cruelty and ruthlessness, was feared not only by the colonists but by most other Indians in New England. In the warfare that eventually ensued, caused in part by intertribal rivalries, the Narragansett Indians became actively engaged on the Puritan side.

Hostilities opened in late 1636 after the murder of several colonists. When the Pequots refused to comply with the demands of the Massachusetts Bay Colony for the surrender of the guilty and other forms of indemnification, a punitive expedition was led against them by John Endecott, the first resident governor of the colony; although it ended inconclusively, the Pequots retaliated by attacking any settler they could find. Fort Saybrook on the Connecticut River was besieged, and members of the garrison who ventured outside were ambushed and killed. One captured trader, tied to a stake in sight of the fort, was tortured for three days, expiring after his captors flayed his skin with the help of hot timbers and cut off his fingers and toes. Another prisoner was roasted alive.

The torture of prisoners was indeed routine practice for most Indian tribes, and was deeply ingrained in Indian culture. Valuing bravery above all things, the Indians had little sympathy for those who surrendered or were captured. Prisoners. unable to withstand the rigor of wilderness travel were usually killed on the spot. Among those—Indian or European—taken back to the village, some would be adopted to replace slain warriors, the rest subjected to a ritual of torture designed to humiliate them and exact atonement for the tribe’s losses. Afterward the Indians often consumed the body or parts of it in a ceremonial meal, and proudly displayed scalps and fingers as trophies of victory.

Despite the colonists’ own resort to torture in order to extract confessions, the cruelty of these practices strengthened the belief that the natives were savages who deserved no quarter. This revulsion accounts at least in part for the ferocity of the battle of Fort Mystic in May 1637, when a force commanded by John Mason and assisted by militiamen from Saybrook surprised about half of the Pequot tribe encamped near the Mystic River.

The intention of the colonists had been to kill the warriors “with their Swords,” as Mason put it, to plunder the village, and to capture the women and children. But the plan did not work out. About 150 Pequot warriors had arrived in the fort the night before, and when the surprise attack began they emerged from their tents to fight. Fearing the Indians’ numerical strength, the English attackers set fire to the fortified village and retreated outside the palisades. There they formed a circle and shot down anyone seeking to escape; a second cordon of Narragansett Indians cut down the few who managed to get through the English line. When the battle was over, the Pequots had suffered several hundred dead, perhaps as many as 300 of these being women and children. Twenty Narragansett warriors also fell.

A number of recent historians have charged the Puritans with genocide: that is, with having carried out a premeditated plan to exterminate the Pequots. The evidence belies this. The use of fire as a weapon of war was not unusual for either Europeans or Indians, and every contemporary account stresses that the burning of the fort was an act of self-protection, not part of a pre-planned massacre. In later stages of the Pequot war, moreover, the colonists spared women, children, and the elderly, further contradicting the idea of genocidal intention.

A second famous example from the colonial period is King Philip’s War (1675-76). This conflict, proportionately the costliest of all American wars, took the life of one in every sixteen men of military age in the colonies; large numbers of women and children also perished or were carried into captivity. Fifty-two of New England’s 90 towns were attacked, seventeen were razed to the ground, and 25 were pillaged. Casualties among the Indians were even higher, with many of those captured being executed or sold into slavery abroad.

The war was also merciless, on both sides. At its outset, a colonial council in Boston had declared “that none be Killed or Wounded that are Willing to surrender themselves into Custody.” But these rules were soon abandoned on the grounds that the Indians themselves, failing to adhere either to the laws of war or to the law of nature, would “skulk” behind trees, rocks, and bushes rather than appear openly to do “civilized” battle. Similarly creating a desire for retribution were the cruelties perpetrated by Indians when ambushing English troops or overrunning strongholds housing women and children.

Before long, both colonists and Indians were dismembering corpses and displaying body parts and heads on poles. (Nevertheless, Indians could not be killed with impunity. In the summer of 1676, four men were tried in Boston for the brutal murder of three squaws and three Indian children; all were found guilty and two were executed.)

The hatred kindled by King Philip’s War became even more pronounced in 1689 when strong Indian tribes allied themselves with the French against the British. In 1694, the General Court of Massachusetts ordered all friendly Indians confined to a small area. A bounty was then offered for the killing or capture of hostile Indians, and scalps were accepted as proof of a kill. In 1704, this was amended in the direction of “Christian practice” by means of a scale of rewards graduated by age and sex; bounty was proscribed in the case of children under the age of ten, subsequently raised to twelve (sixteen in Connecticut, fifteen in New Jersey). Here, too, genocidal intent was far from evident; the practices were justified on grounds of self-preservation and revenge, and in reprisal for the extensive scalping carried out by Indians.

IV

We turn now to the American frontier. In Pennsylvania, where the white population had doubled between 1740 and 1760, the pressure on Indian lands increased formidably; in 1754, encouraged by French agents, Indian warriors struck, starting a long and bloody conflict known as the French and Indian War or the Seven Years’ War. By 1763, according to one estimate, about 2,000 whites had been killed or vanished into captivity. Stories of real, exaggerated, and imaginary atrocities spread by word of mouth, in narratives of imprisonment, and by means of provincial newspapers. Some British officers gave orders that captured Indians be given no quarter, and even after the end of formal hostilities, feelings continued to run so high that murderers of Indians, like the infamous Paxton Boys, were applauded rather than arrested.

As the United States expanded westward, such conflicts multiplied. So far had things progressed by 1784 that, according to one British traveler, “white Americans have the most rancorous antipathy to the whole race of Indians; and nothing is more common than to hear them talk of extirpating them totally from the face of the earth, men, women, and children.”

Settlers on the expanding frontier treated the Indians with contempt, often robbing and killing them at will. In 1782, a militia pursuing an Indian war party that had slain a woman and a child massacred more than 90 peaceful Moravian Delawares. Although federal and state officials tried to bring such killers to justice, their efforts, writes the historian Francis Prucha, “were no match for the singular Indian-hating mentality of the frontiersmen, upon whom depended conviction in the local courts.”

But that, too, is only part of the story. The view that the Indian problem could be solved by force alone came under vigorous challenge from a number of federal commissioners who from 1832 on headed the Bureau of Indian Affairs and supervised the network of agents and subagents in the field. Many Americans on the eastern seaboard, too, openly criticized the rough ways of the frontier. Pity for the vanishing Indian, together with a sense of remorse, led to a revival of the 18th-century concept of the noble savage. America’s native inhabitants were romanticized in historiography, art, and literature, notably by James Fenimore Cooper in hisLeatherstocking Tales and Henry Wadsworth Longfellow in his long poem, The Song of Hiawatha.

On the western frontier itself, such views were of course dismissed as rank sentimentality; the perceived nobility of the savages, observed cynics, was directly proportional to one’s geographic distance from them. Instead, settlers vigorously complained that the regular army was failing to meet the Indian threat more aggressively. A large-scale uprising of the Sioux in Minnesota in 1862, in which Indian war parties killed, raped, and pillaged all over the countryside, left in its wake a climate of fear and anger that spread over the entire West.

Colorado was especially tense. Cheyenne and Arapahoe Indians, who had legitimate grievances against the encroaching white settlers, also fought for the sheer joy of combat, the desire for booty, and the prestige that accrued from success. The overland route to the East was particularly vulnerable: at one point in 1864, Denver was cut off from all supplies, and there were several butcheries of entire families at outlying ranches. In one gruesome case, all of the victims were scalped, the throats of the two children were cut, and the mother’s body was ripped open and her entrails pulled over her face.

Writing in September 1864, the Reverend William Crawford reported on the attitude of the white population of Colorado: “There is but one sentiment in regard to the final disposition which shall be made of the Indians: ‘Let them be exterminated—men, women, and children together.’” Of course, he added, “I do not myself share in such views.” The Rocky Mountain News, which at first had distinguished between friendly and hostile Indians, likewise began to advocate extermination of this “dissolute, vagabondish, brutal, and ungrateful race.” With the regular army off fighting the Civil War in the South, the western settlers depended for their protection on volunteer regiments, many lamentably deficient in discipline. It was a local force of such volunteers that committed the massacre of Sand Creek, Colorado on November 29, 1864. Formed in August, the regiment was made up of miners down on their luck, cowpokes tired of ranching, and others itching for battle. Its commander, the Reverend John Milton Chivington, a politician and ardent Indian-hater, had urged war without mercy, even against children. “Nits make lice,” he was fond of saying. The ensuing orgy of violence in the course of a surprise attack on a large Indian encampment left between 70 and 250 Indians dead, the majority women and children. The regiment suffered eight killed and 40 wounded.

News of the Sand Creek massacre sparked an outcry in the East and led to several congressional inquiries. Although some of the investigators appear to have been biased against Chivington, there was no disputing that he had issued orders not to give quarter, or that his soldiers had engaged in massive scalping and other mutilations.

The sorry tale continues in California. The area that in 1850 became admitted to the Union as the 31st state had once held an Indian population estimated at anywhere between 150,000 and 250,000. By the end of the 19th century, the number had dropped to 15,000. As elsewhere, disease was the single most important factor, although the state also witnessed an unusually large number of deliberate killings.

The discovery of gold in 1848 brought about a fundamental change in Indian-white relations. Whereas formerly Mexican ranchers had both exploited the Indians and provided them with a minimum of protection, the new immigrants, mostly young single males, exhibited animosity from the start, trespassing on Indian lands and often freely killing any who were in their way. An American officer wrote to his sister in 1860: “There never was a viler sort of men in the world than is congregated about these mines.”

What was true of miners was often true as well of newly arrived farmers. By the early 1850′s, whites in California outnumbered Indians by about two to one, and the lot of the natives, gradually forced into the least fertile parts of the territory, began to deteriorate rapidly. Many succumbed to starvation; others, desperate for food, went on the attack, stealing and killing livestock. Indian women who prostituted themselves to feed their families contributed to the demographic decline by removing themselves from the reproductive cycle. As a solution to the growing problem, the federal government sought to confine the Indians to reservations, but this was opposed both by the Indians themselves and by white ranchers fearing the loss of labor. Meanwhile, clashes multiplied.

One of the most violent, between white settlers and Yuki Indians in the Round Valley of Mendocino County, lasted for several years and was waged with great ferocity. Although Governor John B. Weller cautioned against an indiscriminate campaign—”[Y]our operations against the Indians,” he wrote to the commander of a volunteer force in 1859, “must be confined strictly to those who are known to have been engaged in killing the stock and destroying the property of our citizens . . . and the women and children under all circumstances must be spared”—his words had little effect. By 1864 the number of Yukis had declined from about 5,000 to 300.

The Humboldt Bay region, just northwest of the Round Valley, was the scene of still more collisions. Here too Indians stole and killed cattle, and militia companies retaliated. A secret league, formed in the town of Eureka, perpetrated a particularly hideous massacre in February 1860, surprising Indians sleeping in their houses and killing about sixty, mostly by hatchet. During the same morning hours, whites attacked two other Indian rancherias, with the same deadly results. In all, nearly 300 Indians were killed on one day, at least half of them women and children.

Once again there was outrage and remorse. “The white settlers,” wrote a historian only 20 years later, “had received great provocation. . . . But nothing they had suffered, no depredations the savages had committed, could justify the cruel slaughter of innocent women and children.” This had also been the opinion of a majority of the people of Eureka, where a grand jury condemned the massacre, while in cities like San Francisco all such killings repeatedly drew strong criticism. But atrocities continued: by the 1870′s, as one historian has summarized the situation in California, “only remnants of the aboriginal populations were still alive, and those who had survived the maelstrom of the preceding quarter-century were dislocated, demoralized, and impoverished.”

Lastly we come to the wars on the Great Plains. Following the end of the Civil War, large waves of white migrants, arriving simultaneously from East and West, squeezed the Plains Indians between them. In response, the Indians attacked vulnerable white outposts; their “acts of devilish cruelty,” reported one officer on the scene, had “no parallel in savage warfare.” The trails west were in similar peril: in December 1866, an army detachment of 80 men was lured into an ambush on the Bozeman Trail, and all of the soldiers were killed.

To force the natives into submission, Generals Sherman and Sheridan, who for two decades after the Civil War commanded the Indian-fighting army units on the Plains, applied the same strategy they had used so successfully in their marches across Georgia and in the Shenandoah Valley. Unable to defeat the Indians on the open prairie, they pursued them to their winter camps, where numbing cold and heavy snows limited their mobility. There they destroyed the lodges and stores of food, a tactic that inevitably resulted in the deaths of women and children.

Genocide? These actions were almost certainly in conformity with the laws of war accepted at the time. The principles of limited war and of noncombatant immunity had been codified in Francis Lieber’s General Order No. 100, issued for the Union Army on April 24, 1863. But the villages of warring Indians who refused to surrender were considered legitimate military objectives. In any event, there was never any order to exterminate the Plains Indians, despite heated pronouncements on the subject by the outraged Sherman and despite Sheridan’s famous quip that “the only good Indians I ever saw were dead.” Although Sheridan did not mean that all Indians should be shot on sight, but rather that none of the warring Indians on the Plains could be trusted, his words, as the historian James Axtell rightly suggests, did “more to harm straight thinking about Indian-white relations than any number of Sand Creeks or Wounded Knees.”

As for that last-named encounter, it took place on December 29, 1890 on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota. By this time, the 7th Regiment of U.S. Cavalry had compiled a reputation for aggressiveness, particularly in the wake of its surprise assault in 1868 on a Cheyenne village on the Washita river in Kansas, where about 100 Indians were killed by General George Custer’s men.

Still, the battle of Washita, although one-sided, had not been a massacre: wounded warriors were given first aid, and 53 women and children who had hidden in their lodges survived the assault and were taken prisoner. Nor were the Cheyennes unarmed innocents; as their chief Black Kettle acknowledged, they had been conducting regular raids into Kansas that he was powerless to stop.

The encounter at Wounded Knee, 22 years later, must be seen in the context of the Ghost Dance religion, a messianic movement that since 1889 had caused great excitement among Indians in the area and that was interpreted by whites as a general call to war. While an encampment of Sioux was being searched for arms, a few young men created an incident; the soldiers, furious at what they considered an act of Indian treachery, fought back furiously as guns surrounding the encampment opened fire with deadly effect. The Army’s casualties were 25 killed and 39 wounded, mostly as a result of friendly fire. More than 300 Indians died.

Wounded Knee has been called “perhaps the best-known genocide of North American Indians.” But, as Robert Utley has concluded in a careful analysis, it is better described as “a regrettable, tragic accident of war,” a bloodbath that neither side intended. In a situation where women and children were mixed with men, it was inevitable that some of the former would be killed. But several groups of women and children were in fact allowed out of the encampment, and wounded Indian warriors, too, were spared and taken to a hospital. There may have been a few deliberate killings of noncombatants, but on the whole, as a court of inquiry ordered by President Harrison established, the officers and soldiers of the unit made supreme efforts to avoid killing women and children.

On January 15, 1891, the last Sioux warriors surrendered. Apart from isolated clashes, America’s Indian wars had ended.

V

The Genocide Convention was approved by the General Assembly of the United Nations on December 9, 1948 and came into force on January 12, 1951; after a long delay, it was ratified by the United States in 1986. Since genocide is now a technical term in international criminal law, the definition established by the convention has assumed prima-facie authority, and it is with this definition that we should begin in assessing the applicability of the concept of genocide to the events we have been considering.

According to Article II of the convention, the crime of genocide consists of a series of acts “committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group as such” (emphases added). Practically all legal scholars accept the centrality of this clause. During the deliberations over the convention, some argued for a clear specification of the reasons, or motives, for the destruction of a group. In the end, instead of a list of such motives, the issue was resolved by adding the words “as such”—i.e., the motive or reason for the destruction must be the ending of the group as a national, ethnic, racial, or religious entity. Evidence of such a motive, as one legal scholar put it, “will constitute an integral part of the proof of a genocidal plan, and therefore of genocidal intent.”

The crucial role played by intentionality in the Genocide Convention means that under its terms the huge number of Indian deaths from epidemics cannot be considered genocide. The lethal diseases were introduced inadvertently, and the Europeans cannot be blamed for their ignorance of what medical science would discover only centuries later. Similarly, military engagements that led to the death of noncombatants, like the battle of the Washita, cannot be seen as genocidal acts, for the loss of innocent life was not intended and the soldiers did not aim at the destruction of the Indians as a defined group. By contrast, some of the massacres in California, where both the perpetrators and their supporters openly acknowledged a desire to destroy the Indians as an ethnic entity, might indeed be regarded under the terms of the convention as exhibiting genocidal intent.

Even as it outlaws the destruction of a group “in whole or in part,” the convention does not address the question of what percentage of a group must be affected in order to qualify as genocide. As a benchmark, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia has suggested “a reasonably significant number, relative to the total of the group as a whole,” adding that the actual or attempted destruction should also relate to “the factual opportunity of the accused to destroy a group in a specific geographic area within the sphere of his control, and not in relation to the entire population of the group in a wider geographic sense.” If this principle were adopted, an atrocity like the Sand Creek massacre, limited to one group in a specific single locality, might also be considered an act of genocide.

Of course, it is far from easy to apply a legal concept developed in the middle of the 20th century to events taking place many decades if not hundreds of years earlier. Our knowledge of many of these occurrences is incomplete. Moreover, the malefactors, long since dead, cannot be tried in a court of law, where it would be possible to establish crucial factual details and to clarify relevant legal principles.

Applying today’s standards to events of the past raises still other questions, legal and moral alike. While history has no statute of limitations, our legal system rejects the idea of retroactivity (ex post facto laws). Morally, even if we accept the idea of universal principles transcending particular cultures and periods, we must exercise caution in condemning, say, the conduct of war during America’s colonial period, which for the most part conformed to thenprevailing notions of right and wrong. To understand all is hardly to forgive all, but historical judgment, as the scholar Gordon Leff has correctly stressed, “must always be contextual: it is no more reprehensible for an age to have lacked our values than to have lacked forks.”

The real task, then, is to ascertain the context of a specific situation and the options it presented. Given circumstances, and the moral standards of the day, did the people on whose conduct we are sitting in judgment have a choice to act differently? Such an approach would lead us to greater indulgence toward the Puritans of New England, who fought for their survival, than toward the miners and volunteer militias of California who often slaughtered Indian men, women, and children for no other reason than to satisfy their appetite for gold and land. The former, in addition, battled their Indian adversaries in an age that had little concern for humane standards of warfare, while the latter committed their atrocities in the face of vehement denunciation not only by self-styled humanitarians in the faraway East but by many of their fellow citizens in California.

Finally, even if some episodes can be considered genocidal—that is, tending toward genocide—they certainly do not justify condemning an entire society. Guilt is personal, and for good reason the Genocide Convention provides that only “persons” can be charged with the crime, probably even ruling out legal proceedings against governments. No less significant is that a massacre like Sand Creek was undertaken by a local volunteer militia and was not the expression of official U.S. policy. No regular U.S. Army unit was ever implicated in a similar atrocity. In the majority of actions, concludes Robert Utley, “the Army shot noncombatants incidentally and accidentally, not purposefully.” As for the larger society, even if some elements in the white population, mainly in the West, at times advocated extermination, no official of the U.S. government ever seriously proposed it. Genocide was never American policy, nor was it the result of policy.

The violent collision between whites and America’s native population was probably unavoidable. Between 1600 and 1850, a dramatic surge in population led to massive waves of emigration from Europe, and many of the millions who arrived in the New World gradually pushed westward into America’s seemingly unlimited space. No doubt, the 19th-century idea of America’s “manifest destiny” was in part a rationalization for acquisitiveness, but the resulting dispossession of the Indians was as unstoppable as other great population movements of the past. The U.S. government could not have prevented the westward movement even if it had wanted to.

In the end, the sad fate of America’s Indians represents not a crime but a tragedy, involving an irreconcilable collision of cultures and values. Despite the efforts of well-meaning people in both camps, there existed no good solution to this clash. The Indians were not prepared to give up the nomadic life of the hunter for the sedentary life of the farmer. The new Americans, convinced of their cultural and racial superiority, were unwilling to grant the original inhabitants of the continent the vast preserve of land required by the Indians’ way of life. The consequence was a conflict in which there were few heroes, but which was far from a simple tale of hapless victims and merciless aggressors. To fling the charge of genocide at an entire society serves neither the interests of the Indians nor those of history.

Volcano cloud grows, grounding thousands more flights

Volcano cloud grows, grounding thousands more flights

LONDON: A huge cloud of volcanic ash from Iceland spread over half of Europe on Friday, forcing the cancellation of thousands more flights in the continent’s biggest air travel shutdown since World War II.

Europe’s air traffic control centre predicted 17,000 flights would be cancelled Friday. And as the giant no-fly zone grew, Poland said it may delay the funeral of President Lech Kaczynski on Sunday because of the cloud threat.

Experts warned the fallout from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in southeast Iceland could take several days to clear and aviation authorities refused tosay when the skies would clear again.

The cloud now extends from the Atlantic to the Russian capital and from the Arctic Circle to Austria. Thousands of people were stranded in airports around the world as a global flight backlog built up.

All of Europe’s three biggest airports – London Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt – were closed by the ash, which is a threat to jet engines and pilot visibility.

Eurocontrol, the European air traffic control group, said only 11,000 of the daily 28,000 flights in the affected zone would take off Friday. It said at least half of the 600 daily flights between Europe and North America would be cancelled.

About 6,000 flights to and within Europe were cancelled Thursday.

Poland, Britain, Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belgium and the Netherlands shut down all or most of their airspace.

Finland, France, Germany, Russia and Spain experienced major disruption, although Sweden began gradually reopening airspace and Norway temporarily opened up some of its.

“Forecasts suggest that the cloud of volcanic ash is continuing to move east and southeast and that the impact will continue for at least the next 24 hours,” Eurocontrol said in a statement.

Most aviation authorities promised a review on Friday, but the Dutch transport inspectorate set the uncertain tone: no flights “until further notice”.

Delaying Kaczynski’s funeral is a “serious alternative” due to the closure of Polish airspace, a presidential official has said.

US President Barack Obama and other world leaders are expected at the ceremony in the southern Polish city of Krakow but all are now monitoring the cloud before confirming their attendance.

In Britain, airports including London Heathrow, the world’s busiest international air hub, were deserted as operators warned travellers not even to turn up for booked flights.

Officials extended the ban on non-emergency flights in most of its airspace until 0000 GMT Saturday “at the earliest”, although some flights in Northern Ireland and western Scotland will be allowed.

Debbie Eidsforth, 36, spent the night at Heathrow and was trying to get back to Adelaide in Australia via Hong Kong.

“I had paid 5,500 pounds (US$8,500) for my flights, but it doesn’t matter what class you fly in, everyone’s in the same situation,” she said.

“I just slept here on the seats, and there were quite a few other people dotted around. They should really have bought blankets and coffee around for us.”

In Scotland, health officials warned that ash falling to the ground over northern Britain might cause symptoms such as itchy eyes or a sore throat.

Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport prepared beds and meals for 2,000 stranded travellers. Hundreds spent the night at the Brussels airport and others across northern Europe.

The prevailing winds, however, allowed Icelandic airports to remain open.

The ash drifted at an altitude of about 8.0-10 kilometres (5.0-6.0 miles). Although it could not been seen from the ground, experts said it posed a major threat.

In the past 20 years, there have been 80 recorded encounters between aircraft and volcanic clouds, causing the near-loss of two Boeing 747s with almost 500 people on board and damage to 20 other planes, experts said.

The volcano on the Eyjafjallajokull glacier in southern Iceland erupted just after midnight on Wednesday.

Smoke from the top crater stacked more than 6,000 metres (20,000 feet) into the sky. A 500-metre fissure appeared at the top of the crater on Wednesday, Iceland’s RUV broadcaster reported.

The heat melted the surrounding glacier, causing major flooding that forced the evacuation of about 800 people for a second time on Thursday.

The eruption – in a remote area about 125 kilometres (75 miles) east of Reykjavik – was bigger than the blast at the nearby Fimmvorduhals volcano last month.

Some experts have warned that the eruption could last up to a year.

- AFP/yb

Jordan’s King Says Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon War “Imminent”

KingAbdullah.jpg

Congressman Adam Schiff hosted a “Members Only” meeting of the ‘Congressional Friends of Jordan Caucus’ in the US House of Representatives this morning in the CVC Congressional Meeting Room with Jordan’s King Abdullah II.

According to one attendee in the session, “the King’s message was sobering.”

King Abdullah seemed significantly concerned that conflict was about to break out again between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

One congressional source told me that the word the King used was ‘imminent’ with regard to the potential outbreak of war.

On many levels, this is extremely worrisome. Hezbollah is now integrated into Lebanon’s parliament and interacting with countries like France at all levels of government. An Israeli-Lebanon War could preempt the normalization track the United States is pursuing with Syria.

There are reports today about American concerns of Syrian supply of SCUD missiles to Hezbollah and/or training to Hezbollah personnel on SCUDs.

Tomorrow (Thursday), I will be attending the Syria National Day reception at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington where last year I saw many senior State Department officials, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, and several Congressmen.

Hopefully, America’s renewed engagement with Syria will not be knocked off track — but there is no doubt that King Abdullah’s warning to Members of Congress is stirring much concern.

– Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington NoteClemons can be followed on Twitter @SCClemons

UAE-Financed Georgian/German Free Trade Zone, or Economic Beachhead?

[Western interests up the ante with this move, doing with capitalism what they have so far failed to accomplish with militarism.  The invasion of dollars is welcomed by all players, even if it is obvious that the dollar is set to fall.  Everyone thinks that they can profit from assisting in the rape of Central Asia, without getting screwed themselves.

The great chess game goes on, yet it seems to be a one-sided game.  Who are the empire-builders really playing against?  Since all of the governments involved appear to be working as one, there is no opponent left but the people themselves.

If "We the People" are part of the great game then we should at least know it.  If conspiring governments cannot simply take what they want because they fear what the people will then do, then that speaks volumes about real people power.  The people of every nation have the same latent political power recently unleashed in Kyrgyzstan, but very few people have the nerve of the Tulip Revolutionaries.  Whenever the people of the United States and the people of the former Soviet Union stop playing-along with the games that our governments play to deceive us all, then that is the day that all governments shall fall.

The day that all governments fall is the day the human race becomes free.]

Georgia Creates First Free Trade Zone For The Caucasus Region

First free trade zone of the Caucasus is forming up

The first free trade zone of the Caucasus is currently forming up on 3 060 000m² in the Georgian port Poti at the Black Sea.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PR Log (Press Release) – Apr 16, 2010 – The investors from the United Arab Emirates, RAK Investment Authority, acquired a 49 years lasting concession in 2008 and have yet allocated 22 trade licenses within an international field –  companies such as LG Electronic as well as other businesses from Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, UAE and South Korea. Interesting for the investors at this juncture are the modern storage possibilities and their appealing prices for lease and rent, a distinguished technical supply and also low costs for energy.

Poti serves as reloading point for sea freight within the entire South Caucasus and has regular maritime connections to Russia, Bulgaria, Turkey and to the Ukraine. At the landside the free trade zone is connected to the cross-border railway line Tbilisi-Baku from where cargo trains deliver goods to Central Asia at regular intervals. Due to the connections to freeways and nearby airports in Tbilisi and Batumi the region offers an easily accessible transport system plus a well developed infrastructure. Furthermore, the free industrial zone offers licenses for industry, trade, commerce and consulting, whose formalities will be handled within a few days. A good regulatory framework , with a 100% right of property e.g., feature excellent initial points for assembling factories.

The German Business Association in Georgia (DWVG) is comprised of companies which are active in bilateral German-Georgian economic relations. The DWVG was founded in 2007 and currently has 32 member companies from various Georgian and German industrial sectors. The DWVG is a registered association and thus a non-commercial corporate body. The German embassy in Tbilisi is a consulting member of the DWVG board.

The DWVG’s aim is to enhance trade and economic relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and Georgia and to represent German business interests locally. Moreover, the DWVG is a service provider and supports German businesses in Georgia through promotional and networking activities, as well as research and consulting.

Depleted Uranium Deadly to All Life Forms, Sterilizes Israeli Men

[A real "existential threat" to the Zionist state.]

Israel’s Declining Sperm Quality Tied to Depleted Uranium Exposure

Apr-14-2010 22:11Tim King Salem-News.com

With the latest news, Israel may soon lose the need to create and seek out enemies; with a little help from the U.S. they did this to themselves.

Depleted Uranium round in Israel
Round used by Israel during their 2006 attack on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. Photo by Dexter Phoenix, to purchase Dexter’s images from Israel, send an email to:innocent_p0stcard@hotmail.com

(TEL AVIV / SALEM) – Israel’s population is facing a dire threat: a drastic depopulation, from the use of weapons that leave behind Depleted Uranium (DU). Depleted Uranium leads to the word Omnicidal, as DU kills everything in the food chain, everywhere the wind blows. Experts say the dramatic drop in Israel’s sperm count could eliminate their ability to reproduce.

Research by an Israeli doctor shows a significant drop in sperm count level and sperm motility among young Israeli soldiers in recent years. Sperm motility is the ability of sperm to move properly toward an egg.

It is attributed to the inhalation of DU aerosolized nano-particles; the dirty results of extra powerful weapons used by Israel and the U.S.

All of that military might as it turns out, could set the stage for a massive Israeli act of population suicide.

A study by Dr. Ronit Haimov-Kokhman released in November, showed a 40-percent decline in the concentration of sperm cells in Israeli sperm donors from 2004 to 2008, compared to samples taken between 1995 and 1999.

Sperm banks in Israel are now reportedly turning away as many as two-thirds of potential donors, due to the low-quality sperm. In the past, around one-third of the potential donors were turned away.

According to Ofri Ilani’s article in Haaretz, Study: Quality of Israeli sperm down 40% in past decade:

“The research confirmed that in 10 years, the average concentration of sperm among donors declined from 106 million cells per cubic centimeter to 67 million per cubic centimeter. The rate of sperm motility has also declined: from 79 to 67 percent, although the profile of donors did not change over that period; they are still young, healthy and do not smoke.”[1]

Israeli tank that blast Lebanese targets. Photo: Dexter Phoenix

Haimov-Kokhman says the problem is not entirely unique; the quality of sperm has also declined in a number of Western countries. But in Israel he says, it has been particularly rapid.

“If we keep going at this rate, a decline of 3 million cubic centimeters of sperm cells per year, we’ll reach an average of 20 million in 2030. The World Heath Organization defines this as fertility impairment.”

Questionitnow.com said this about the reported thousands of tons of nuclear waste in the form of armor piercing rounds, referred to as “depleted uranium” or “DU”, in the invasion of Iraq:

“The United States and Britain have gravely endangered not only the Iraqis and their own troops, but the entire world. In the first invasion, at least 320 tons of DU were exploded into Iraq, at least 1500 tons were blasted in the second illegal invasion.”[2]

They cite Professor Malcolm Hopper of the University of Sunderland in the U.K., whose extensive studies of health effects on British and U.S. soldiers who served in the Gulf War, shows as many as 21,000 U.S. Gulf War veterans have died, “due not just to DU exposure but to the astounding amounts of organophosphate (OP) poisoning from various toxins (or supposedly anti-toxins) given to the troops as ‘preventive’ medicine.”

This human and environmental disaster was reviewed by Bob Nichols, a correspondent with SFBayView who specializes in nuclear issues with an emphasis on the atmospheric contamination from Depleted Uranium. In the article PTSD, Infertility and Other Consequences of War, he discusses how Israel is likely to be depopulated soon[3].

Oregon Guard soldiers patrol a building in Kabul, Afghanistan that was
destroyed by U.S. bombs. Everyone who served in these countries or visited
them, was potentially subjected to DU contamination. Photo by Tim King.

“Israel falls within the region that has been dosed with depleted uranium [DU] [various kinds of munitions] in the West Asian theatre of war. DU kills people at genetic level.” A report by Dr. Ronit Haimov-Kokhman, which was debated in the Knesset, is cited in the report by Ofri Ilani.

Arun Shrivastava, a writer with the Centre for Research on Globalization, says this has been known for some time.

“Admiral Bhagwat and I made our presentations at GNDU, Amritsar, in April 2008, social workers among the audience came up and narrated some events that actually provide hard enough evidence of DU contamination the entire North-western India. There was a significant presence of top officers from the Indian Army.”

He says they are keenly aware of this silent weapon. “The security forces know what the American and NATO soldiers have done to South and West Asians.”

According to Shrivastava, contamination of the total Indian population stands at over 300 million; the total West and South Asian population affected stands at least 900 million, possibly more than a billion.

“None of these would complete their normal life. None of us will. This entire region will be depopulated which is what the PTBs have in mind and they have set in motion processes that can’t be stopped. No way,” Shrivastava said.

There is little question that this information has tremendous significance for the people of Palestine and Gaza, although these unfortunate people might end up the same way as the Israelis.

Dexter Phoenix also snapped this image of the rounds
Israel’s military doesn’t want photographed, why not?

Reports from other West Asian countries are identical, Shrivastava says, “Both US and NATO forces have committed genocide right in Asia. Our civilizations may never be the same, may not be viable.”

It is important to note how overlooked this significant world problem truly is, and how indicting it turns out to be. Shrivastava says it is also important to remember that the DU is a result of military activity that is illegal under international law.

“Please note that the use of WMD is war crime. There are cases pending under ICCA against three US Presidents and two British PMs and their entire cabinet. DU weapons are WMDs; they are weapons of indiscriminate destruction and environmental contamination….IN PERPETUITY.”

As Nichols states in his article, uranium oxide gas weapons are called “genocidal weapons.”

“They maim and kill millions of people, their animals and their land. The actual targets by the U.S. Expeditionary Forces are the populations of Central Asia and the Middle East, about a billion people.”

He reminds us that more than a million American servicemembers, thousands of contractors, and others, like journalists have had their boots on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past several years, not to mention the thousands of people from other nations.

“The medical disability rate is over 60 percent and ‘PTSD’ is a common diagnosis. Soldiers from the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy report similar medical problems as well.”

According to figures cited in his article, a milligram (mg) of uranium oxide poison gas is roughly equal in size to one of the periods at the end of these sentences. When this is absorbed by Marines and soldiers, through their skin, no limit exists in regard to their exposure. It could range from to one milligram to a thousand.

Rosalie Bertell, Ph.D., GNSH said, “Each tiny milligram shoots about 1,251,000 powerful radioactive bullets a day with a range of about 20 cells of the human body for thousands or even billions of years.”

Dr. Bertell currently serves on a number of Pentagon radiation committees; she has been in this role for decades.

The worst part is that all of it has taken place under protest by activists, scientists, and defense experts. There has been no doubt in the minds of those who know, but their words have gone unheeded. Orders to use these internationally illegal weapons are made by presidential order in U.S. war zones.

Serious information at a serious time in history. It would truly be ironic if Israel’s military machine, so ruthlessly applied over the years on the Arab people, would render the population without the ability to reproduce.

Sources:

[1] Study: Quality of Israeli sperm down 40% in past decade – By Ofri Ilani

[2] Weapons of Mass Destruction Found in Iraq

[3] PTSD, infertility and other consequences of war – by Bob Nichols

Other relevant links:

CIA World Factbook

The Biology of Human Longevity: Inflammation, Nutrition, and Aging in the Evolution of Lifespans (Hardcover) Amazon.com

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Tim King is a former U.S. Marine with twenty years of experience on the west coast as a television news producer, photojournalist, reporter and assignment editor. In addition to his role as a war correspondent, this Los Angeles native serves as Salem-News.com‘s Executive News Editor. Tim spent the winter of 2006/07 covering the war in Afghanistan, and he was in Iraq over the summer of 2008, reporting from the war while embedded with both the U.S. Army and the Marines.

Tim holds numerous awards for reporting, photography, writing and editing, including the Oregon AP Award for Spot News Photographer of the Year (2004), first place Electronic Media Award in Spot News, Las Vegas, (1998), Oregon AP Cooperation Award (1991); and several others including the 2005 Red Cross Good Neighborhood Award for reporting. Serving the community in very real terms, Salem-News.com is the nation’s only truly independent high traffic news Website. You can send Tim an email at this address: newsroom@salem-news.com

U.S. Helped to Prepare the Way for Kyrgyzstan’s Uprising–March 30, 2005

[American financed Democratic-revolutionary forces created the opposition with these printing presses, which unseated the first dictatorship.  What role did they play in the second?]

U.S. Role in Kyrgyz Uprising Yoray Liberman/Getty Images, for The New York Times

Kyrgyz women working Monday at a printing press in Bishkek that is financed by the U.S. government and operated by Freedom House, an American organization. An opposition newspaper has been using the press.

U.S. Helped to Prepare the Way for Kyrgyzstan’s Uprising

March 30, 2005

By CRAIG S. SMITH

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, March 29 – Shortly before Kyrgyzstan’s recent parliamentary elections, an opposition newspaper ran photographs of a palatial home under construction for the country’s deeply unpopular president, Askar Akayev, helping set off widespread outrage and a popular revolt in this poor Central Asian country.

The newspaper was the recipient of United States government grants and was printed on an American government-financed printing press operated by Freedom House, an American organization that describes itself as “a clear voice for democracy and freedom around the world.”

In addition to the United States, several European countries – Britain, the Netherlands and Norway among them – have helped underwrite programs to develop democracy and civil society in this country. The effort played a crucial role in preparing the ground for the popular uprising that swept opposition politicians to power.

“Of course, this infrastructure had an influence,” said one European election observer. “People now believe they have rights, and they were not scared because the repressive capacity of the system was weak.”

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan quickly became an aid magnet with the highest per-capita foreign assistance level of any Central Asian nation. Among the hundreds of millions of dollars that arrived came a large slice focused on building up civil society and democratic institutions.

Most of that money came from the United States, which maintains the largest bilateral pro-democracy program in Kyrgyzstan because of the Freedom Support Act, passed by Congress in 1992 to help the former Soviet republics in their economic and democratic transitions.   [The Freedom Support Act is allegedly a nuclear/conventional weapons control act, yet in Kyrgyzstan it created anti-government printing houses and opposition forces.] The money earmarked for democracy programs in Kyrgyzstan totaled about $12 million last year.

Hundreds of thousands more filter into pro-democracy programs in the country from other United States government-financed institutions like the National Endowment for Democracy. That does not include the money for the Freedom House printing press or Kyrgyz-language service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, a pro-democracy broadcaster.

“It would have been absolutely impossible for this to have happened without that help,” said Edil Baisolov, who leads a coalition of nongovernmental organizations, referring to the uprising last week. Mr. Baisolov’s organization is financed by the United States government through the National Democratic Institute.

American money helps finance civil society centers around the country where activists and citizens can meet, receive training, read independent newspapers and even watch CNN or surf the Internet in some. The N.D.I. alone operates 20 centers that provide news summaries in Russian, Kyrgyz and Uzbek.

The United States sponsors the American University in Kyrgyzstan, whose stated mission is, in part, to promote the development of civil society, and pays for exchange programs that send students and non-governmental organization leaders to the United States. Kyrgyzstan’s new prime minister, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, was one.

All of that money and manpower gave the coalescing Kyrgyz opposition financing and moral support in recent years, as well as the infrastructure that allowed it to communicate its ideas to the Kyrgyz people.

The growing civil society, meanwhile, began to have an awakening effect on the country’s population just as Mr. Akayev and his family grew increasingly enamored of their power. “If none of this had been here, the family would have remained in power and people probably would have remained passive, as they have in other Central Asian countries,” said Jeffrey Lilley, who runs the local office of the International Republican Institute, a United States-financed pro-democracy organization.

Alexander Kim, editor in chief of the opposition newspaper that printed the photos of the president’s house, knows the problem well: in 1999, Mr. Akayev’s son-in-law took control of Mr. Kim’s first newspaper, which he and other employees had bought from the state during the privatizations earlier that decade.

He says the son-in-law used fraudulent means, but he was never able to prove it in court. So Mr. Kim went on to found another newspaper, which went through several incarnations as the government tried to prevent him from publishing. He has been helped by about $70,000 in American government grants, mostly to pay for newsprint.

The problem, though, was finding a press: they were all controlled by the government and refused to print newspapers from the opposition.

Then Mike Stone, Freedom House’s representative in Kyrgyzstan, arrived.

“When Freedom House opened their printing press, it was the end of our problems,” Mr. Kim said.

By January this year, Mr. Kim had begun national distribution of the newspaper, called MSN, for My Capital News. Opposition candidates in the parliamentary elections bought truckloads of the papers to distribute as campaign literature.

Those Kyrgyz who did not read Russian or have access to the newspaper listened to summaries of its articles on Kyrgyz-language Radio Azattyk, the local United States-government financed franchise of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Other independent media carried the opposition’s debates. Talk shows, like “Our Times,” produced in part with United States government grants, were broadcast over the country’s few independent television stations, including Osh TV in the south, where the protests that led to Mr. Akayev’s ouster began. Osh TV expanded its reach with equipment paid for by the State Department.

“The result is that the society became politicized, they were informed,” Mr. Kim said. “The role of the NGO’s and independent media were crucial factors in the revolution.”

As corruption grew worse, the country’s nongovernmental organizations began speaking out, and Mr. Akayev grew wary of the foreign pro-democracy assistance he had long allowed.

The published pictures of his house outraged him. Mr. Stone, who runs the printing press, was summoned to the Foreign Ministry and berated.

A week later, just before the press began printing a 200,000-copy special issue of MSN, the power at the press went out. Radio Liberty was also taken off the air, ostensibly because the government was putting its frequency up for auction.

Mr. Akayev began suggesting that the West was engaged in a conspiracy to destabilize the country. A crudely forged document, made to look like an internal report by the American ambassador, Stephen Young, began circulating among local news organizations. It cast American-financed pro-democracy activities as part of an American conspiracy. “Our primary goal,” the document read, “is to increase pressure upon Akaev (sic) to make him resign ahead of schedule after the parliamentary elections.”

But Mr. Akayev, who had begun his presidential career as an advocate of democracy, did not go further.

The American Embassy sent Freedom House two generators the day after the power went out, allowing the press to print nearly all of the 200,000 copies of MSN’s special issue. The power was restored on March 8, and Mr. Kim’s newspaper became one of the primary sources of information for the mobilizing opposition.

MSN informed people in the north of the unrest in the south. The newspaper also played a critical role in disseminating word of when and where protesters should gather.

“There was fertile soil here, and the Western community planted some seeds,” said one Western official. “I’m hoping these events of the past week will be one of those moments when you see the fruits of your labors.”

Another Hot Summer in the Middle East Includes Oil and Gas Masks


Another Hot Summer in the Middle East Includes Oil and Gas Masks

Claude Salhani

Intelligence sources in the Middle East have indicated that the summer in the region could turn out to be particularly hot and they’re not talking about global warming or the environment. They are referring to the political climate. Of course, predicting future political moves in the Middle East can be accomplished with the precision of guessing what cards your opponent holds in a game of poker.  Pure luck and some experience and your chances for success are still 50-50.

Speaking to this reporter sources who asked not to be identified because of the sensitiveness of the issues said that a series of reports filtering-in from Lebanon and Israel demonstrates that both sides are gearing up for a potential confrontation, once again. That in and of itself is nothing new.

Israel has always been preparing for eventual confrontations with its neighbours.  Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in numerous confrontations, the last one as recently as 2006. But what is worrisome about this potential next round of violence is that it involves Iran and when one says Iran, one says oil.

The sources told me that Israel has distributed gas masks to its population in the northern part of the country, the area that would be under direct fire from the Shiite militia’s rockets and artillery emanating from southern Lebanon. Indeed, the presence of the Lebanese Shiite militia in such close proximity to several major Israeli centers of population gives the Islamic Republic of Iran an important beachhead just a few hundred miles north of Israel’s most populous city, Tel Aviv.

Here is what could happen: Iran’s refusal to abide by the international community’s request that is puts a stop to its quest to acquire nuclear technology allowing it to develop nuclear weapons could result in Israel taking unilateral action against the Islamic Republic. Should that occur, there is little doubt that Iran would unleash its proxy militia from Lebanon and have Hezbollah throw everything they have at Israel.

The consequences would be devastating for all sides.

First, no matter how prepared and equipped Israel might be, an all-out assault from Hezbollah, who today is better equipped than the Lebanese army, would cause heavy casualties among the civilian population in northern Israel.

And second, Israel’s repost would be terrible.  We have already had an apercu of what happens when Israel unleashes its military might, as was the case in Lebanon in 2006 and in Gaza in 2009.

The end results would be nefarious on many fronts. Consider the following:

1.    Civilian casualties are bound to be high on both sides of the dispute.

2.    Fighting in the Middle East would frighten away tourists and their much-needed dollars and euros just as the start of the tourist season is about to kick off. As most Westerners tend to lump the Middle East in one basket, it is not only Lebanon and Israel who will suffer from unoccupied hotel rooms and vacant beach resorts, but so too will Egypt, Jordan and other popular destinations.

3.    What will be Iran’s reaction in the Gulf region and to international shipping? That remains an unknown factor. Will Iran’s revolutionary guards attack Western oil tankers? All it takes is to sink one or two oil tankers to close the strategic Straits of Hormuz, through which most of the region’s oil flows. Think of the consequences of a sky-rocketing price of oil on today’s wobbly markets.

4.    And finally, hardly anyone in the Arab and Muslim world is likely to believe that Israel acted without American consent. What impact is that likely to have on U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and other spots where U.S. forces are currently deployed?

One safe prediction is that it will set the war on terrorism back by at least ten years. The war the West and its allies are currently fighting cannot be won through military might alone. Hearts and minds must be won in order to achieve final victory. And that is unlikely to happen unless greater emphasis is given to the peace process.

Now you may understand why the Obama administration sees peace in the Middle East as directly related to the security of the United States.

Claude Salhani is a political analyst specializing in the Middle East.
He is the author of While the Arab World Slept: the impact of the Bush years on the Middle East.

The Aftermath of the Kyrgyz Revolution – The Lesser Players

The Aftermath of the Kyrgyz Revolution – The Lesser Players

by Dr John CK Daly for Oilprice.com

(Part 2 in a three-part series)

The recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan has largely been portrayed as an epic clash between U.S. and Russian interests.

That said, interest in events in Bishkek extend far beyond Kyrgyzstan throughout the regional and one should expect the following voices to add their concerns as the situation evolves. While largely overlooked by media coverage, their influence could be a significant factor in both interim and long-term solutions that emerge to Kyrgyzstan’s recent upheavals.

CHINA

Kyrgyzstan shares a 533-mile border with China. Kyrgyzstan’s primary value to China is as a market for its goods and is interested in economic expansion and access to resources. A week ago a Chinese energy company held discussions with deposed President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s younger son Maksim Bakiyev, who heads the country’s Central Agency on Development, Investment, and Innovation, about a $300-million investment in Kyrgyzstan’s northern Chui Province. China’s exports to Kyrgyzstan range from mass consumer products and home electronics to luxury commodities.

But Chinese investment, unlike American and Russian, suffered from a major drawback – a lack of military bases “flying the flag” to safeguard those interests. Speaking in November last year, Kyrgyz First Deputy Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov stated that Kyrgyzstan despite Beijing’s preferred investment policies expected Chinese companies to endow the Kyrgyz economy without state guarantees, adding the hope that with the assistance of Chinese partners, Chinese FDI in Kyrgyzstan would increase to $1 billion. According to Chinese data, the trade turnover between the two countries reached $7.33 billion in 2008, four times more than in 2006.

While there were no casualties among the estimated 30,000 Chinese nationals living in Kyrgyzstan, some Chinese businessman suffered severe property damage during the recent rioting, with the Chinese-owned Guoying 4,800 square meter four-story commercial center being burned and looted. The commercial center was also gutted during the 2005 Tulip Revolution, suffering losses exceeding $5 million.

On 8 April Beijing said it was “deeply concerned” about the situation in Kyrgyzstan, according to Wang Kaiwen, the Chinese ambassador to Kyrgyzstan. Wang concluded that China hopes that as a “friendly neighbor” it hopes “order can be restored as soon as possible and relevant issues can be resolved through legal channels.”

Chinese academics also weighed in on Kyrgyzstan’s unrest as well, with Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Central Asia director Pan Zhiping providing a trenchant critique, noting, “The domestic unrest in Kyrgyzstan is still ongoing and could last for an unspecific period of time. Widespread corruption has taken its toll on the fall of the Bakiyev government, and the opposition has long tried to seize power.”

In the interim, the new provisional government considers China’s interests to be on a par with both Russia and neighboring Kazakhstan. On 9 April deputy head of the Kyrgyz interim government Omurbek Tekebayev told Russian reporters, “The foreign policy priority will change, and there will be some other amendments, too…  Meanwhile, Russia, Kazakhstan and other neighbors, including China, will remain our strategic partners.”

The reasons for such statements are the China possesses both economic and military latent power. China and Kyrgyzstan are the only regional members of the World Trade Organization. In the regional sphere, while Beijing up to now has pursued strictly pragmatic economic policies, that could change if the new government requested peacekeepers, as Kyrgyzstan and China along with Kazakhstan Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, while India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia have observer status.

In a sign of its growing regional economic power, last June in Ekaterinburg Chinese President Hu Jintao, pledged $10 billion in aid to the SCO Central Asian member nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Accordingly, Beijing potentially has both economic and military levers to pull should the situation require it.

INDIA

India, Asia’s second superpower, was one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with Kyrgyzstan in 1992. The same year an Indo-Kyrgyz Joint Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technological Cooperation was set up. Current bilateral trade between India and Kyrgyzstan remains at a modest level, around $18 million annually. Delhi’s interest in Kyrgyzstan is likely to increase however, because of India’s strong interest potential in the generation of hydroelectric power, a specialty of the Kyrgyz economy.

From its side Kyrgyzstan is particularly interested in Indian investment in telecommunications, oil and gas, tourism, railways and particularly collaboration with India’s information technology industry.

Major Indian exports to include wool, cotton, leather goods, handicrafts, machinery and instruments, cosmetics and toiletries, while major Indian imports from Kyrgyzstan include raw wool, metal manufactures, raw silk, crude minerals and metal scrap.

On 9 April India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement noting, “India is following closely and with concern recent internal developments in the Kyrgyz Republic, a friendly Central Asian country in our extended neighborhood. We hope that the current political situation will be resolved quickly and that peace and stability would return to the Kyrgyz Republic.” Like China, India’s influence over events is primarily economic, though at a far more modest level than Beijing’s. Unlike China, New Delhi has virtually no military cards on the table to play, either bilateral nor alliance, so it must at present remain on the sidelines, except perhaps for deploying its diplomacy.

KAZAKHSTAN

Like neighboring Tajikistan Kazakhstan has closed its border with Kyrgyzstan, but less tightly, barring vehicles from entering unless they are driven by returning Kazakh citizens. The Kazakh terse public and private media tersely covered events in Kyrgyzstan in noncommittal and cautious terms. Kazakh citizens, however, can follow the events through satellite television, and on the Internet.

In an interview with Evron’ius television channel, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev observed, “The Kyrgyz Republic is our neighbor. I watch these events with great sadness. I’m just sorry that the fraternal Kyrgyz people, who are so close to us, have permanently entered such an abyss.”

Last week Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Masimov said that Kazakhstan hoped the situation in Kyrgyzstan would resolve peacefully soon, promising humanitarian aid to help victims of the fighting.

More interesting, on 9 April Air Astana suspended its four scheduled weekly services between the capital Almaty and Bishkek with service scheduled to resume on 19 April, subject to tightened security. Air Astana President Peter Foster said, “Air Astana will do everything possible to help passengers that are stranded in Almaty/Bishkek because of political situation in Kyrgyzstan. Although this is situation beyond our control we will offer full refunds.”

What makes Air Astana’s action so noteworthy is that Kazakhstan may have worried that the airline would be used by Bakiyev administration officials to flee the country. The author was told on 8 April by a high ranking official from a Central Asian embassy in Washington speaking on condition of anonymity that Bakiyev had indeed earlier that day flown to Kazakhstan, only to be turned back.

Kazakh Senate deputy speaker Zhanybek Karibzhanov is currently in Bishkek representing Kazakhstan as chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). On 10 April Karibzhanov said, “The interim government is ready to hold negotiations. The first attempt to hold such talks took place last night.”

What is increasingly obvious is that Kazakhstan intends to play its role as chair of the OSCE to the maximum during the crisis. On 12 April Karibzhanov said, “We have met with a wide spectrum of society, including provisional administration leaders, members of the former parliament and civil society representatives. These talks have helped us get a comprehensive picture of the situation and the current political landscape in the country. Together we have identified spheres where the OSCE could make an effective contribution.”

It is quite a heady assignment for Karibzhanov, Deputy Speaker of Kazakhstan’s Majilis (lower house of Parliament) who was only appointed Special Envoy by the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office on 8 April.

The same day on the other wide of the world the Kyrgyz new agency 24.kg reported that Nazarbayev, in Washington for a nuclear conference, during discussions with President Obama offered the U.S. the possibility of opening a military base on its territory, an offer reportedly confirmed by Michael McFaul, a special assistant to President Obama for Russia, Eurasia and Caucasus affairs, who added that  “The leaders discussed a possibility of the US troops to fly in Afghanistan through the North Pole and territory of Kazakhstan from the US, that is more convenient than flights through Europe.”

TAJIKISTAN

Tajik government limited its official comments to events, only calling the crisis Kyrgyzstan’s “internal affair.” Tajik policy closely aligned with Bakiyev’s, particularly on the contentious issue of the two states’ water flows to their neighboring former Soviet republics Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, a topic which has led to increasing tension over the past several years. Both countries want to build massive hydroelectric projects, which are opposed by their downstream neighbors, particularly Uzbekistan.

Interestingly, in Dushanbe on 9 April the leader of the Islamic Rebirth Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), Muhiddin Kabiri, met U.S. embassy official Charles Martin for a closed door meeting, after which Kabiri stated that recent events in Kyrgyzstan and their impact on Tajikistan had been one of the topics discussed.

Sayfullo Safarov, deputy director of the Centre for Strategic Studies under the Tajik president, analyzed events in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, saying, “Revolutions and coups take place in countries that have weak economies and many social problems. These exact factors were activated in Kyrgyzstan: a weak economy, numerous social problems, an increase in the price of electricity, the monopolization of some economic facilities and localism became the main reason for the people’s revolt in Kyrgyzstan.”

Both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have put their local security forces on higher levels of alert.

UZBEKISTAN

Uzbekistan has yet to make any official statement on the unrest in Kyrgyzstan, but on 9 April Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement announcing the closing of the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan border, because the government hoped to avoid the spreading of riots into Uzbekistan proper, commenting, “Uzbekistan’s government has to take steps to tighten the border crossing regime,” which Tashkent regarded as a prudent measure, as both IMU elements remain in Kyrgyzstan and 15 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s population is ethnic Uzbek.

Speaking on condition of anonymity a Kyrgyz Border Service officer confirmed that the border was closed at Uzbekistan’s initiative, commenting, “The situation on the border with the neighboring countries remains calm.”

WHAT NEXT?

All the above-mentioned nations, while having significant interests in Kyrgyzstan, have adopted a reactive “wait and see” attitude until events there become clearer. Unlike its former Soviet Central Asian republic neighbors, Kyrgyzstan has had no tradition of a strong presidency – rather, the president accrued power over time. But like its neighbors, tribalism and regionalism divide the nation, with Kyrgyzstan split into northern and southern regions. The two factors combined to produce a fragile post-Bakiyev scenario, which could conceivably see Kyrgyzstan’s neighbors address ongoing turmoil in Kyrgyzstan destabilizing the region.

Depending on the situation develops Kyrgyzstan’s neighbors could become involved, as Kyrgyzstan is a member of the post-Soviet Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) along with Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, a NATO counterpart in the former Soviet space. Should the situation in Kyrgyzstan deteriorate, CSTO could conceivably send members of its Collective Rapid Reaction Force, as on 6 October 2007 CSTO members established a peacekeeping force that could deploy with or without a UN mandate in its member states.

A second regional mechanism for intervention could be the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which includes China, Russia and the three above-mentioned Central Asian nations, especially as in October 2007 the SCO signed an agreement with CSTO to broaden cooperation.

What is clear is that all the Eurasian powers are closely watching events in Kyrgyzstan, and are considering options to stabilize the situation if it deteriorates. About the only certainty at this point is that if events warrant a CSTO and/or SCO intervention Washington, with its obsession with retaining at any cost access Manas Transit Center airbase, will watch the scenario unfold as passive observers with M16s locked and loaded from behind its 223 hectares of barbed wire 20 miles from Bishkek. If events of the past week have proved anything to the Kyrgyz people and their Central Asian neighbors, it is that nearly two decades of U.S. harangues about human rights have proven less important than Washington’s geostrategic concerns.

As Michael Corleone observed, “It’s just business,” but the irony that Russia has been ahead of the U.S. in the international vanguard of dealing with the Kyrgyz provisional government established in the wake of a popular uprising that saw nearly 100 killed and over 1,000 wounded is not lost on the Kyrgyz, much less their compatriots in the surrounding “Stans.”

Part one can be found here: http://www.oilprice.com/article-the-truth-behind-the-recent-unrest-in-kyrgyzstan-273.html

This article was written by Dr John CK Daly for Oilprice.com

The Truth Behind The Recent Unrest in Kyrgyzstan

The Truth Behind The Recent Unrest in Kyrgyzstan

by Dr. John CK Daly for Oilprice.com

The following article is the first of three examining the recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan and its implications.  Part 2 tomorrow will deal with the regional fallout from the “Tulip Revolution V2.0” and Part 3 will examine in detail Washington’s highest priority in Kyrgyzstan -  its ongoing access to the Manas Transit Center airbase.

The extraordinary events of last week in Kyrgyzstan, which saw the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s administration by a popular uprising and its replacement by a provisional government have been portrayed by many in the “Beltway-istan” (Washington DC) as the latest tussle betwixt Russia and the U.S. in the ‘Great Game” for influence in the post-Soviet space.

The truth is considerably more complex, however, and like a set of Russian matruishka nesting dolls, the further one digs, the more the complex realities of the situation emerge. While Moscow and Washington’s rivalry for influence with the interim leader, 59-year-old former diplomat Rosa Otambaeyva’s administration is indeed paramount, there are other players watching the debacle, from local superpowers China and India to neighboring “Stans” Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  Any final disposition of the problems emerging from the “Tulip Revolution – Part Two” will have to include consideration of these factors beyond the U.S.-Russian struggle for influence in the post-Soviet space.

NO APPARENT FUNDAMENTALIST INVOLVMENT IN DISTURBANCES

Perhaps the biggest surprise and source of relief to both regional onlookers and the U.S. and Russia in particular is that the demonstrations which erupted in Talas on 6 April and quickly spread to the capital, Bishkek, and other cities has been the absence of Islamic militant involvement in the disturbances despite the fact that Kyrgyzstan has suffered from militant actions for years. Locally-based fundamentalist groups include elements of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and the Hizb ut-Tahrir (Party of Liberation – HuT) movement, which seeks to establish a Central Asian Islamic caliphate, have had a long-term and growing presence there. However, unlike the 2004 “color revolutions” in Ukraine and Georgia, which were relatively nonviolent, the events last week in Kyrgyzstan were accompanied by a tragic loss of life. According to the provisional government’s security chief Keneshbek Dushebaev, more than 80 died in the unrest, while the number of wounded exceeded 400. At a 10 April ceremony burying the dead from the disturbances, Otunbayeva said that 7 April would be commemorated in the future as an official Day of Remembrance.

FINANCIAL CAUSES OF THE UNREST

If there is a surprise in last week’s events, perhaps it is that they were so long in coming. Nineteen years after the collapse of the USSR, 40 percent of the Kyrgyz population lives below the poverty line, with unemployment at a staggering 18 percent, the world’s 16th highest rating, along with a 10 percent inflation rate. The dire economic situation has forced many Kyrgyz to seek work outside the country, most notably in the Russian Federation; in 2007, 27 percent of its GDP, $322 million, was sent as remittances from Kyrgyz working abroad; In the fourth quarter of 2008 Kyrgyz banks reported remittances dropping almost by half, while in the third quarter of last year funds sent back from overseas by Kyrgyz émigrés had recovered slightly to $283 million. After the March 2005 Tulip Revolution, many Kyrgyz expected life to improve under Bakiyev, but soon he fell out with his allies as his regime drifted into cronyism, graft and authoritarianism, and many of today’s opposition leaders were originally in his government.

Worsening the financial situation, the global recession saw Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin In December 2008 argue that Russia’s migrant quota should be cut by up to 50 percent of the total of 3.9 million legally registered guest workers to protect Russian jobs.

RIGGED ELECTIONS AND NEPOTISM

In July 2009, an election that was harshly criticized by opposition figures and international monitors as undemocratic returned Bakiyev to power with a landslide 89 percent of the vote. Having won another five year term Bakiyev increasingly turned the country into his personal fiefdom, increasingly concentrating power in his hands. Last year Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign, Interior, Defense and National Security Service ministries were subordinated to the president and last November Otunbaeva, then a leader in the opposition Social Democrat Party and now leader of the provisional government observed, “Right now, in the (Kyrgyz governmental) White House there are five Bakiyevs working in the upper echelons of power, and that is not even mentioning the many relatives who have occupied every floor of the White House.”

In a telling international rebuke to his increasingly autocratic style, on 3 April U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said during a speech to the Kyrgyz Parliament, “For the United Nations, the protection of human rights is a bedrock principle if a country is to prosper. Quite frankly, ladies and gentlemen, recent events have been troubling, including the past few days. I repeat: all human rights must be protected, including free speech and freedom of the media.”

ALL IN THE FAMILY

Cronyism and corruption also clouded the picture; Kyrgyzstan is now amongst the top 20 in the world for the latter. Bakiyev’s son Maksim, a part owner of the British Blackpool Football Club, in November last year was appointed to head Kyrgyzstan’s Central Agency for Development, Investment and Innovation, which gathered the country’s economic crown jewels under its umbrella, including recently becoming the main shareholder in the country’s Kyrgyzalten gold concern, whose Kumtor mine, The Kumtor gold mine, run by Canada’s Centerra Gold, contributes 10 percent of GDP accounts for 40 percent of the country’s industrial production and 10 percent of the nation’s GDP. Rumors swirled around Bishkek that Maksim was appointed to groom him for the 2014 presidential elections, as Bakiyev stated that intends to step down from office in 2014 commenting only that “he intends to hand over power to trustworthy hands.”

Maksim was scheduled on 8 April in Washington to present “Kyrgyzstan: Creating an Innovation-Focused Economy” at the “Kyrgyz Opportunities Forum II: Creating an Innovation-Focused Economy” economic forum, co-hosted by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Kyrgyz-North America Trade Council. The presenters promised, “How will you benefit by attending?” by promising, “Meet Kyrgyz/U.S. government officials,” “ Understand the market direction, investment climate and opportunities in Kyrgyzstan” and “Discuss the financing and legal issues with the officials from U.S. government financing agencies, aid organizations and advisory firms.” The proposed “Who should attend?” client list included “ Investors, including banks, private equity concerns, infrastructure developers; mining companies; energy companies (especially hydroelectric/renewable, power grid); construction companies; technical assistance contractors (US AID, EBRD, ADB, World Bank); and advisors (accounting/consulting and law firms).”

Needless to say, the event was suspended, and the U.S. Embassy in Kyrgyzstan and the State Department in Washington refused to comment on Maxim’s whereabouts even though on 9 April Deputy Secretary of State Philip J. Crowley said that State Department personnel still planned to meet Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev and Maksim.

U.S. officials likewise are declining to say if they will cooperate with Kyrgyzstan’s provisional government, if Otumbayeva’s administration seeks Maksim’s extradition.

According to a Voice of America 12 April report, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake, being sent to Bishkek, stated that Maskim has since left the country and that he had no contact with U.S. officials. The next day Latvia’s rus.DELFI.lv website reported that Maksim Bakiyev is now in Latvia, where he co-owns several businesses. Maksim’s arrival was reported in the Latvian media to have been agreed with state authorities, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Foreign Minister Maris Riekstins neither confirmed nor denied the report, saying only that the consular authorities of Latvia did not grant a visa to Bakiyev but that he can stay in Latvia, if his visa he was issued by another Schengen country. Bakiyev is a business partner of Latvian banker Valery Belokon, with whom he co-owns the “Maval aktivi” Ltd.. Additionally, Bakiyev is the sole owner of “Who is Who,” formerly owned by Belokon and is also deputy chairman of the board of “Kimmels Riga” joint stock company.

RISING PRICES FOR AN IMPOVERISHED PEOPLE

While in late 2009 Bakiyev sharply increased taxes for small and medium businesses, resentment against the Bakiyev regime began to simmer when on 1 January it imposed new tariffs on telecoms, electricity and hot water, effectively doubling prices on electricity and increasing heating costs by an eye-watering 500-1,000 percent. Otumbayeva remarked that the country’s leading telecoms firm had been sold to an offshore company in the Canary Islands, belonging to a friend of Maksim, adding, “We had an absolutely scandalous situation where Kyrgyzstan had become a family-run regime.” The graft and price rises combined with the shuttering of Internet sites, the Stan TV internet portal and bans on protests and arrests of opposition leaders to bring the populace onto the streets. In retrospect, the main question is what took so long.

THE U.S. – BUSINESS AS USUAL – SAVE THE MANAS TRANSIT CENTER

In February U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke visited Kyrgyzstan, seeking assurances on Manas Transit Center. The following month, on 17 March United States Central Command head General David Petraeus met Bakiyev in Bishkek to discuss bilateral cooperation and the situation in Afghanistan. Always pushing the envelope for increased military privileges, the visit came the day after the Obama administration had confirmed the provision of $5.5 million to the Bakiyev regime for the construction of a counter-terrorism training center in southern Kyrgyzstan, which would provide the Pentagon with its second military outpost in the country. The project dovetailed nicely with Bakiyev’s anxieties about fundamentalism emanating from Afghanistan. The terrorist center would complement the U.S. Manas Transit Center airbase, 20 miles outside the capital, established in late 2001, which had proven, despite rising controversy, increasingly important to the Pentagon’s Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.

RUSSIA – FIRST TO ASSIST THE REVOLUTION

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on April 8 with Roza Otunbaeva, becoming the first known foreign leader to call her once she claimed to be in charge and Kremlin spokesman Dmitrii Peskov stated that Russia stood ready to offer humanitarian aid to Kyrgyzstan. More prudently Russia dispatched two battalions of totaling paratroopers to its Kant air base outside Bishkek, ostensibly to assure the safety of Russian citizens stationed there.

Russia was the first country to recognize the new regime amid speculation that it continues to press for the closure of Manas Transit Center. Russia certainly shed no tears over Bakiyev’s fate, as last year he infuriated the Russian government by reneging on a quid pro quo pledge to close Manas despite having earlier received $2.15 billion in Russian loan pledges.

On 8 April Almazbek Atambayev, the provisional government’s acting minister for economic affairs, was dispatched to Moscow to negotiate a reduction in fuel tariffs and other economic aid. Russia has already moved to render fiscal assistance, According to the National Bank’s Acting Chairman Zair Chokoev, on 10 April the next tranche of Russia’s $300 million credit to Kyrgyzstan of the $2.15 billion loan was transferred to Kyrgyz National Bank accounts.

In perhaps the most telling sign of Russia’s new ascendancy and surely the element certain to unsettle Washington, Russian Federation Council defense and security committee head Viktor Ozerov said that Moscow might consider sending peacekeepers to Kyrgyzstan if asked, perhaps as part of an OSCE or UN mission. Because Kyrgyzstan along with Russia are also part of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russian peacekeepers could be dispatched there as part of either a SCO or CSTO mission as well.

U.S. – SLEEPWALKING WITH FINGERS CROSSED

In late 2001 the U.S. had established an air base at Manas international airport 20 miles from Bishkek to support its military operations in Afghanistan. Cozying up to the presidential administration Washington quickly allowed the administration of President Askar Akayev and its cronies to take over the lucrative refueling and provisioning rights for the bases, paying inflated prices for landing rights and fuel provided by companies under the presidential family’s control.

Akayev’s troubles with Washington began when a bilateral agreement between Russia and Kyrgyzstan signed on 22 September 2003 established a Russian military airbase at Kant near Bishkek.

In March 2005 Kyrgyzstan’s so-called Tulip Revolution, triggered by allegations of government meddling in parliamentary elections and given momentum by popular anger over endemic poverty, corruption and cronyism, succeeded in ousting Akayev, who had led the country since independence.

But the unpalatable truth is, even as Washington delivered homilies on human rights and democracy, the contracts for the US military base became a direct source of corruption, with first Akayev’s and then Bakiyev’s families profiting, by owning the companies with exclusive rights to refuel NATO aircraft.

Washington’s initial response to the recent unrest was limited to general statements from the State Department. On 7 April as the unrest broke out U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs P.J. Crowley told journalists, “We have concerns about issues, you know, intimidation by the government, corruption within the government. We want to see Kyrgyzstan evolve, just as we do other countries in — in the region. But, that said, there is a sitting government. We work closely with that government. We are allied with that government in terms of its support, you know, for international operations in — in Afghanistan.”

At the same time flights at Manas Transit Center were halted for 12 hours, but not before an eyewitnesses reported that Bakiyev’s Air Force Jet No. 1 took off from Manas Transit Center, an image few Kyrgyz are likely to forget anytime soon as rumors swept Bishkek that Bakiyev’s family had been under the protection of the Americans at Manus after fleeing the capital.

Jala-Abad, in the Ferghana valley, to which Bakiyev has fled, is among Central Asia’s most volatile regions. Split between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it is home to different ethnicities and is seen as a HuT hotbed of Islamic extremists pursuing a single Islamic caliphate state. Bakyev, a southerner from the poorer part of the country, is playing upon divisions between the more prosperous northern regions, closer to Russia, and the predominantly rural southern regions.

On 10 April the US military in Kyrgyzstan, giving no explanation, indefinitely suspended all troop flights from the Manas airbase, stranding 1,300 U.S. troops there.  According to U.S. Central Command spokesman Maj John Redfield troop flights would resume once conditions in Kyrgyzstan allow, with the U.S. in the interim transporting all forces to Afghanistan via Kuwait. Flights were subsequently resumed on 12 April.

THE ZERO-SUM GAME

Kyrgyzstan is the only country in the world hosting both U.S. and Russian bases. While both sides vie for position with the new administration and the Western press in particular focuses on the Manas Transit Base and the proposed new anti-terrorist center, the Russian picture is also rather more complex than reported by the press.

In October 2003 during Akayev’s regime the Russian Federation established its airbase at Kant near Bishkek, ostensibly to provide immediate air support for CSTO ground units. The Kant airbase, less than one quarter the size of the Manas Transit Center, was Russia’s first foreign military facility established since 1991, and less than 30 miles away from Manas.

Kant was not the whole story.

Dating from the Soviet era, the Soviet/Russian Navy operated an extensive facility at eastern Lake Issyk-Kul’s eastern end, where submarine and torpedo technology was evaluated. Among the projects tested there was the super-cavitating VA-111 Shkval torpedo, designed originally to sink U.S. carriers, with a speed in excess of 200 knots. In March 2008 the Kyrgyz press reported that 2,140 acres surrounding the Karabulan peninsula on Issyk-Kul would be leased for an indefinite period to the Russian Federation Navy, which is planning to establish new naval testing facilities as part of the 2007 bilateral Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation, Mutual Help, and Protection of Secret Materials, under 2hose terms the Kremlin would pay and annual lease rent of $4.5 million.

Bakiyev in early 2009 ignited a bidding war between Moscow and Washington for access to Kyrgyz space. In February Russia promised its $2.15 billion in loans; five months later, Bakiyev announced his new deal over Manas Transit Center with Washington, effectively earning money from both sides.

And now? On 13 April U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the U.S. has other options to its air base in Kyrgyzstan, noting that Washington explored alternatives last year when it was negotiating a deal to use the base with the Kyrgyz government, but that those alternatives are “more expensive and more challenging.”

It remains to be seen, given the ineptitude of Washington’s Kyrgyz policies, how “expensive” those options might be. For the moment, Moscow has trumped the U.S., purveyor of democratic values, by aiding the provisional government at a critical time when it overthrew an authoritarian regime allied to Washington, which despite its rhetoric remained consistently committed to muting its human rights agenda in return for quiescent ongoing access to its airbase.

The next few days will be interesting indeed.

To be continued…..Part 2 on Wednesday

This article was written by Dr. John CK Daly for Oilprice.com

Kyrgyzstan: Business, Corruption and the Manas Airbase

Kyrgyzstan: Business, Corruption and the Manas Airbase

By. Dr. John CK Daly for Oilprice.com

Kyrgyzstan’s mass anti-government protests last week were essentially the culmination of more than a decade of disillusionment and dissatisfaction that accumulated in the nation’s political, economic and social spheres from the period of Akayev to his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev, with virtually every Kyrgyz concerned about rising prices and falling standards of living, both issues of little concern and dimly understood in Washington.

BAKIYEV FLEES

The diplomatic logjam over the fate of deposed President Kurbanbek Bakiyev has apparently ended, as on 15 April Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency reported that Bakiyev, along with his younger brother Dzhanysh, former head of the country’s feared National Security Service (NSS) and the presidential guard and former Defense Minister Bakytbek Kalyev had fled the country. Kazakh Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kazakhstan Askar Abdyrakhmanov subsequently confirmed that their military aircraft arrived in Taras, Kazakhstan. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) office in Bishkek issued a statement that Bakiyev left “as a result of joint efforts by President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, (U.S. President) Barack Obama and the Russian Federation (President) Dmitrii Medvedev, as well as the active mediation of the OSCE, the UN and the EU.” According to interim government member Almambek Shykmamotov, Bakiyev was allowed to leave the country after signing a formal resignation statement.

While Kyrgyzstan’s political impasse has been resolved by Bakiyev’s sudden departure, expect to see furious behind the scenes politicking in Bishkek, particularly between Russia and the U.S. as both attempt to strengthen their influence with interim Prime Minister Roza Otumbayev’s administration at the expense of the other.

Two issues are likely to dominate Kyrgyzstan’s political scene in upcoming weeks – negotiating as much foreign aid as possible and recovering as much of the money looted by the Bakiyev kleptocracy as possible.

FISCAL DEPREDATIONS BY THE BAKIYEV FAMILY

The scale of the fiscal depredations of Bakiyev’s inner circle is quite startling for a country of only 5 million people. According to Natsional’nyi bank Kyguzstana Acting Chairman Zair Chokoev, during the period 7-8 April, when the unrest peaked, the country’s largest commercial bank, AziiaUniversalBanke (AUB), controlled by Bakiyev’s son Maksim, sent $200 million out of the country.

Such thievery has had an immediate impact on the country’s finances; provisional Finance Minister Temir Sariyev said that as the result of such depredations, the country’s budget deficit will amount to over $20 million in April alone.

Again outpacing Washington, on 14 April Russian Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin announced that Russia was Kyrgyzstan an immediate grant of $20 million and a soft loan of $30 million, commenting, “I think it is possible to provide humanitarian aid – a grant of $ 20 million for the priority of payments for social support…now, collection of customs and tax payments to ensure the ongoing costs of government in Kyrgyzstan is weak.”

WASHINGTON’S INTERIM POLICY

In contrast, Washington has yet to announce any relief aid. Instead, expect the U.S. in the upcoming days to focus obsessively on continued access to the Manas Transit Center airbase, 20 miles from the capital. While the base’s lease expires on 7 July, Otunbayeva has already stated that it will be “automatically” extended, though next year the issue is likely to arise again unless Washington institutes some major course corrections in its previous policies towards Kyrgyzstan. Washington has a major uphill struggle ahead, largely of its own making.

Senior leaders in the interim government that took power last week are accusing the United States of allowing Bakiyev family members to enrich themselves with inflated contracts supplying jet fuel to Manas Transit Center. According to provisional government senior members, companies controlled by the president’s 32-year-old son, Maksim, who last October was appointed by his father to head the country’s newly created Central Agency on Development, Investment, and Innovation, skimmed as much as $8 million a month from daily jet fuel sales to the base of up to a quarter million gallons, utilizing a monopoly and favorable taxes. More than any other single factor, Washington’s policies towards the Manas Transit Center have been responsible for alienating Kyrgyz opinion against the U.S. Accordingly, a brief overview of U.S. policies towards the airbase are in order.

MANAS – A COZY BUSINESS ARRANGEMENT FROM THE START

The Manas airbase was established on 4 December 2001 under the joint Kyrgyz-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) under the administration of then President Askar Akayev. The Pentagon was granted the right to use the airbase for the bargain rent of $2 million annually, but almost immediately Washington established contracts for fueling and landing rights with companies controlled by Akayev’s family, which found the Pentagon paying far higher than prevailing international rates for the base. The Pentagon selected Manas above Kyrgyzstan’s other 52 airports because its 14,000-foot runway, originally built for Soviet bombers, could be utilized by USAF C-5 Galaxy cargo planes and 747s to support Operation Enduring Freedom operations in Afghanistan.

THE MARCH 2005 TULIP REVOLUTION – BUSINESS AS USUAL

By early 2005 Akayev’s increasingly authoritarian turn and increasing corruption alienated many of his supporters. Another less well-known factor in undercutting his authority were the activities of a number of U.S.-based non-governmental organizations, most notably Freedom House, which published many opposition papers.

Washington’s disenchantment with Akayev began in 2003 when he decided to allow Russia to establish a full-fledged military base in Kant near Bishkek, its first outside the Russian Federation since the 1991 collapse of the USSR. Though less than a quarter of the size of Manas, Akayev’s decision landed him on America’s “watch list” and increased aid flowed to the Kyrgyz opposition via American NGOs. In 2004 Washington in assisting the democratic process directed $12 million, an amount six times the ‘formal” rent for Manas, into Kyrgyzstan in the form of scholarships and donations, while the State Department even funded TV station equipment in the restive southern provincial town of Osh. Goerge Soros through his various foundations also helped fund the opposition, while Freedom House operated a printing press in Bishkek.

In April, having fled the unrest, Akayev signed his resignation in Moscow and entered a gilded retirement. In Bishkek Freedom House project director Mike Stone said simply, “Mission accomplished.” Kurmanbek Bakiyev now strode to center stage amid high expectations.

In essence, shortly after the 2005 Tulip Revolution, Washington turned its back on Kyrgyzstan and developments there. The Pentagon had Manas, and Kyrgyzstan had no oil and gas reserves that evoked such Western interest in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Washington simply rewrote its cozy contracts with the Baikyev administration for Manas, delivered intermittent harangues on democracy and human rights, and essentially ignored the country.

Manas would eventually prove an ace in Bakiyev’s hand. The base’s importance increased dramatically after the tragic May 2005 events in Andijan, Uzbekistan, when Tashkent, infuriated with Washington’s ambivalent response, on 29 July unilaterally terminated its SOFA agreement allowing the Pentagon to utilize Uzbekistan’s Karshi-Khanabad (K2) airbase, a mere 60 miles north of the Afghan border. Under the agreement’s terms, the Pentagon had 180 days to evacuate the facility, which it did.

Manas quickly proved to be a useful, if more distant and expensive, alternate base for Afghan operations. Despite being its 400 miles and 90-minutes flying time to Afghanistan, Manas dwarfed the six to eight hours flight time from other potential launching areas, such as ships or U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

Washington’s arrogance and befuddle response to events in Andjian reverberated throughout the region. Even before Uzbekistan abrogated its SOFA agreement with Washington, at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on 5 July 2005 the presidents of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan signed a joint declaration requesting the U.S.-led anti-terrorist coalition forces to set a date for leaving Central Asia. In Kyrgyzstan, then Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Roza Otunbayeva held a news conference to rehash the SCO declaration’s arguments for setting a deadline on the U.S.-led military presence. According to a 6 July 2005 Itar-Tass report, she reiterated the contention that Afghanistan had essentially been stabilized and that consequently active military operations were no longer necessary, implying that Manas had lost its reason for being. Citing the 2001 U.S.-Kyrgyzstan SOFA agreement, Otunbayeva stated, “We intend to act in line with this and discuss the matter. We want to know how long the base is going to stay.”

ALL IN THE FAMILY, COURTESY OF THE PENTAGON

The corruption involved in the Manas lease arrangement which helped precipitate last week’s events had a long genesis, as beginning in early 2002 Akayev’s son Aydar was the recipient of annual $2 million lease payments, plus additional fees of $7,000 per takeoff and landing. In all, Akayev’s family law received $87 million and $32 million for his two airport service companies during Akayev’s tenure as president as shortly after Manas began operations, the Pentagon signed contracts with Manas International Services Ltd. and Aalam Services Ltd., the only two aviation fuel suppliers in Kyrgyzstan, both controlled by Akayev’s relatives. Compalints over American arrogance over the facility would outlast the Akayev regime.

THE LIST OF COMPLAINTS GROWS

Other simmering complaints included a 26 September 2006 aircraft collision involving a KC-135 and the presidential Tu-154 airliner, for which the Americans declined to take responsibility, and the repeated USAF practice of dumping of tons of surplus fuel over Kyrgyz farms adjoining the base. Claims by nearby farmers for compensation were denied.

Things came to a head on 6 December 2006, when 20-year old US soldier Zachary Hatfield shot twice and killed 42-year-old Kyrgyz Aleksandr Ivanov, an ethnic Russian Kyrgyz, at the airbase’s entry gate. Ivanov worked for Aerocraft Petrol Management, which provides fuel services for Kyrgyz and international civilian aircraft. Hatfield maintained that he fired in self defense after Ivanov approached him with a knife. Despite promises to make Hatfield available to the Kyrgyz judicial system, the Pentagon whisked him out of the country.

2009 – BAKIYEV PLAYS BOTH MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON FOR SUCKERS

The year 2009 began with the Bakiyev regime cozying up to Moscow, receiving in early February $2.15 in loan guarantees, the bulk of which would be used to finish the Kambarata-1 hydroelectric cascade. Bishkek’s rumor mill buzzed with gossip that part of the price of the loan was that the Bakiyev administration would shutter Manas.

The Pentagon was certainly alarmed, despite a calm exterior. In January 2009, as negotiations were taking place in Moscow, during a trip through Central Asia, Head of U.S. Central Command General David Petraeus said in relation to Manas that “$63 million of funds (we) are giving (is) for leasing the airport, paying contracts and salaries to the local personnel.” However, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev corrected the general’s spin for the local audience, telling journalists, said that “Kyrgyzstan gets $150 million from the USA every year, but most of these funds are not for deploying the Manas air base,” stressed that this was the “total sum” of U.S. payments and that in fact the air base rental totaled only $17.5 million per year
On 3 February 2009 Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced in Moscow that “the Kyrgyz government has taken a decision to terminate the rent of the base,” signing a bill into law to that effect on 20 February.

As the result of a full-press U.S. diplomatic offensive however, the terms of which remain to be seen by Otunbayeva, on 7 July Bakiyev grandly announced that the lease for Manas had been extended for a year.

WHAT CAN THE U.S. DO NOW?

On 10 April the United States Embassy issued a statement stopping short of endorsing Otunbayeva’s government, commenting, “We remain a committed partner to the development of Kyrgyzstan for the benefit of the Kyrgyz people and intend to continue to support the economic and democratic development of the country.”

On the issue of Manas, while during an interview with RFE/RL on 8 April Otunbaeva said the interim government initially had “some questions” about the base, adding, “we will honor the agreements and commitments we have signed,” a member of the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan told the author, strictly off the record, that the Otunabayeva administration had reached an agreement with Putin about a U.S. withdrawal from the Manas Transit Center, but no date was given. While the threat of the base’s immediate closure has receded for the moment, the next year will prove critical should Washington wish to retain it.

Moscow has currently won the PR war for Kyrgyz “hearts and minds.” While the Kremlin was quick to support the triumphant forces of change and assist the interim government with financial assistance, Washington backed Kyrgyzstan’s now-deposed dictator. The U.S. has already failed to make a significant humanitarian gesture by not opening up the Manas Transit Center’s medical facilities to those injured in last week’s unrest in Bishkek, a mere 20 miles away but putting the base instead into lockdown.

Kyrgyzstan’s provisional government faces a number of daunting tasks, the most immediate being to impose order in the capital. High on the political agenda is to reach agreement on the division of power resources with the southern clans, Bakiyev’s former stronghold. Another with immense foreign implications is to legitimize its victory by creating transitional power structures that are recognized by the international community while preparing a new constitution and organizing new elections for six months’ time while finding foreign assistance to ameliorate the country’s dire fiscal situation.

On the issues of securing the capital and dividing power the global community can do little, but its impact on the last issues could be immense. Whoever provides the most significant assistance in resolving these problems can expect to see a commensurate growth in its influence. If current events are anything to go by, then Russia already has the inside track.

Washington should immediately recognize Otumbayeva’s government. Secondly, it should use its considerable clout with international lending institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to assist Bishkek in getting easier access to international lending.

Third, despite the potential embarrassment, the Pentagon should come clean about its Manas contracts and negotiate a fair rent for Manas. This may be inevitable anyway, as Congress is preparing its own probe of the Manas contracts. On 13 April a House of Representatives panel conducting a preliminary investigation into U.S. contracting in Afghanistan began focus on what its chairman called the “unexplained relationships” between the families of two Kyrgyzstan presidents and fuel supplies to Manas. Washington should also use its influence to help the provisional government locate and repatriate as much of Bakiyev’s stolen funds as possible, whatever the embarrassment to U.S. officials over the ‘deals” arranged with the Bakiyev regime.

The United States on 12 April welcomed as “very good news” statements from the Kyrgyz interim government that it will abide by existing agreements covering Manas. Two days later the  U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian affairs Robert Blake met with Otunbayeva in Bishkek, telling journalists that he came to “express support for the steps the provisional government has taken to restore democracy” and to offer American aid.

The Kyrgyz people have grown weary of American “expressions” of support for democracy and human rights; if Washington truly wants to stabilize its presence in Kyrgyzstan, it can begin by understanding that Central Asia is not an American satrapy to be purchased at bargain basement prices and ignored, but that other countries have legitimate interests there as well, including security, and that an integral part of the security is “quality of life” issues, which previous U.S. arrangements with corrupt regimes have signally failed to address. The operating motto of the new provisional government may well prove to be “Show us the money – and help us find what was stolen.” It is an adage that Washington, having apparently up to now learned little since 2005, ignores at its peril.

Parts 1 & 2 can be found at:

Part 1:  The Truth Behind the Recent Unrest in Kyrgyzstan

Part 2: The Aftermath of the Kyrgyz Revolution – The Lesser Players

U.S. – SLEEPWALKING WITH FINGERS CROSSED

U.S. – SLEEPWALKING WITH FINGERS CROSSED

In late 2001 the U.S. had established an air base at Manas international airport 20 miles from Bishkek to support its military operations in Afghanistan. Cozying up to the presidential administration Washington quickly allowed the administration of President Askar Akayev and its cronies to take over the lucrative refueling and provisioning rights for the bases, paying inflated prices for landing rights and fuel provided by companies under the presidential family’s control.

Akayev’s troubles with Washington began when a bilateral agreement between Russia and Kyrgyzstan signed on 22 September 2003 established a Russian military airbase at Kant near Bishkek.

In March 2005 Kyrgyzstan’s so-called Tulip Revolution, triggered by allegations of government meddling in parliamentary elections and given momentum by popular anger over endemic poverty, corruption and cronyism, succeeded in ousting Akayev, who had led the country since independence.

But the unpalatable truth is, even as Washington delivered homilies on human rights and democracy, the contracts for the US military base became a direct source of corruption, with first Akayev’s and then Bakiyev’s families profiting, by owning the companies with exclusive rights to refuel NATO aircraft.

Washington’s initial response to the recent unrest was limited to general statements from the State Department. On 7 April as the unrest broke out U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs P.J. Crowley told journalists, “We have concerns about issues, you know, intimidation by the government, corruption within the government. We want to see Kyrgyzstan evolve, just as we do other countries in — in the region. But, that said, there is a sitting government. We work closely with that government. We are allied with that government in terms of its support, you know, for international operations in — in Afghanistan.”

At the same time flights at Manas Transit Center were halted for 12 hours, but not before an eyewitnesses reported that Bakiyev’s Air Force Jet No. 1 took off from Manas Transit Center, an image few Kyrgyz are likely to forget anytime soon as rumors swept Bishkek that Bakiyev’s family had been under the protection of the Americans at Manus after fleeing the capital.

Jala-Abad, in the Ferghana valley, to which Bakiyev has fled, is among Central Asia’s most volatile regions. Split between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it is home to different ethnicities and is seen as a HuT hotbed of Islamic extremists pursuing a single Islamic caliphate state. Bakyev, a southerner from the poorer part of the country, is playing upon divisions between the more prosperous northern regions, closer to Russia, and the predominantly rural southern regions.

On 10 April the US military in Kyrgyzstan, giving no explanation, indefinitely suspended all troop flights from the Manas airbase, stranding 1,300 U.S. troops there. According to U.S. Central Command spokesman Maj John Redfield troop flights would resume once conditions in Kyrgyzstan allow, with the U.S. in the interim transporting all forces to Afghanistan via Kuwait. Flights were subsequently resumed on 12 April.

THE ZERO-SUM GAME
Kyrgyzstan is the only country in the world hosting both U.S. and Russian bases. While both sides vie for position with the new administration and the Western press in particular focuses on the Manas Transit Base and the proposed new anti-terrorist center, the Russian picture is also rather more complex than reported by the press.

In October 2003 during Akayev’s regime the Russian Federation established its airbase at Kant near Bishkek, ostensibly to provide immediate air support for CSTO ground units. The Kant airbase, less than one quarter the size of the Manas Transit Center, was Russia’s first foreign military facility established since 1991, and less than 30 miles away from Manas.

Kant was not the whole story.

Dating from the Soviet era, the Soviet/Russian Navy operated an extensive facility at eastern Lake Issyk-Kul’s eastern end, where submarine and torpedo technology was evaluated. Among the projects tested there was the super-cavitating VA-111 Shkval torpedo, designed originally to sink U.S. carriers, with a speed in excess of 200 knots. In March 2008 the Kyrgyz press reported that 2,140 acres surrounding the Karabulan peninsula on Issyk-Kul would be leased for an indefinite period to the Russian Federation Navy, which is planning to establish new naval testing facilities as part of the 2007 bilateral Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation, Mutual Help, and Protection of Secret Materials, under 2hose terms the Kremlin would pay and annual lease rent of $4.5 million.

Bakiyev in early 2009 ignited a bidding war between Moscow and Washington for access to Kyrgyz space. In February Russia promised its $2.15 billion in loans; five months later, Bakiyev announced his new deal over Manas Transit Center with Washington, effectively earning money from both sides.

And now? On 13 April U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the U.S. has other options to its air base in Kyrgyzstan, noting that Washington explored alternatives last year when it was negotiating a deal to use the base with the Kyrgyz government, but that those alternatives are “more expensive and more challenging.”

It remains to be seen, given the ineptitude of Washington’s Kyrgyz policies, how “expensive” those options might be. For the moment, Moscow has trumped the U.S., purveyor of democratic values, by aiding the provisional government at a critical time when it overthrew an authoritarian regime allied to Washington, which despite its rhetoric remained consistently committed to muting its human rights agenda in return for quiescent ongoing access to its airbase.

Coutesy: www.Oilprice.com which offers detailed analysis on Crude oil, Geopolitics, Gold and most other Commodities

In Anticipation of a Riot–(Google translation)

[The author of the following makes an important distinction about the color revolutions, in that nothing but the actors seems to change.  The system remains, unfazed by the uproar.  The puppet-masters understand how to turn the revolution on, as well as off, giving them the ability to secure the fate of their new men, as soon as they unseat the old puppets.)

In anticipation of a riot

The collapse of the “color revolutions” marks the beginning of a new, much more dramatic phase
Boris Kagarlitsky

o not have a particularly original thought, to ascertain: the coup that occurred last week in Kyrgyzstan, marks the completion of the regular political cycle “color revolutions”. You can sum up the process. They are grim. In Ukraine, returned to power, Viktor Yanukovych, Georgia became involved in a useless war against Russia and was defeated, and in Kyrgyzstan, the authorities established under the banner of struggle for democracy, was dropped by the insurgent people.

The essence of “color revolutions” was that one part of the ruling elite used the mass discontent against the other. Opposition themselves came from the camp authorities had powerful allies in the business community and not tried to change anything in the social structure. All of their revolutionary commitment was reduced to violate the rules by which previously developed the political process. Administrative resources are applied the ruling group, they opposed the appeal to the masses and the ability to bring people into the streets. People are willing to respond to calls by the opposition: the social discontent had already reached the boiling point. But the secret of “color revolutions” was not in his ability to lead the opposition crowds in the streets and in their ability then that crowd control and remove from the streets as soon as the “serious people” were sitting in their offices, will occupy its own affairs. A key element of the coup was not the mobilization of the masses, but rather, demobilization. Otherwise, the “color revolution” could turn into a real revolution without any fine adjectives. And it does not figure in the plans spin doctors.

I must admit that at first all worked out fine. Events unfolded almost as planned. But there was one problem that the new government could not and was not going to solve: the social problems caused popular discontent did not dare. Hateful most people the system remained unchanged.

Moreover, the change of power is just made to strengthen this system, replacing the “incompetent management” that constituted the old government, more competent, who belonged to the opposition.

Alas, if the incompetence of government officials was undoubtedly, the expertise came in to replace them the opposition was more than doubtful. It was found that the level of corruption is defined only factor – the degree of proximity to power. As soon as the opposition yesterday sat in their places, they began to steal the same – if not more.

Social discontent is now proved was directed against the new government. The winners remained the only trump card – nationalism. It was used to a greater or lesser degree of aggressiveness. The fact that this was anti-Russian nationalism, due to technical reasons only. Who else offers on the role of the enemy? As the saying goes, “nothing personal”.

Alas, the history of “color revolutions” has shown that resource nationalism as a unifying ideology of the society is very limited.

And, most importantly, its excessive use leads to disastrous results. In Kyrgyzstan, the nationalism of the case does not matter, although attempts were made to play this card. In Georgia, it ended naturally lost the war in the Ukraine found that, despite fifteen years handling publicity for the population, hostility towards the eastern neighbor and has not become the basis for national unity, and generally not helped Ukrainians see themselves as one people. Incidentally, this is quite natural: a nation formed not conflict with its neighbors, and, above all, joint economic, cultural and political achievements, which sometimes have to defend against external enemies. If these achievements no, no, even large doses of xenophobic propaganda, do not create a single nation.

Meanwhile, groups, emerged victorious from the “color revolutions”, gnawed each other, and the worse was the situation, the more bickering. And the losers, in turn, have mastered the simple spin doctors and their opponents have learned, albeit a rather artisanal way to apply it for their own purposes.

But the main question still remains the demobilization of the masses. In Georgia, had to use force to keep the streets again become an arena of political struggle. In Ukraine, the demobilization of the masses has been implemented far more successfully – at the cost of universal demoralization and apathy. As a result, when Viktor Yanukovych began to beat the heroine of the Orange Revolution, Yulia Tymoshenko, in that there was no chance to withdraw his supporters onto the streets – were not ready to go, even those who voted for it. It is one thing, reluctantly, to choose those whom consider “lesser evil”, and another – to go for this evil to the barricades.

And finally, in Kyrgyzstan, we could see as “color revolution” has failed its core task: the demobilization of the masses did not take place, the crowd was back on the street. The regime was once again overthrown, came to power a regular opposition. But this time, even outsiders can be seen: the new government has nothing and no one controls, and the very fear of rebel crowd.

Provisions of the Interim government in Bishkek, brings to mind a miserable situation of “temporary” in Petrograd, 1917. Another thing is that in the wings until you see either of the Kyrgyz Lenin nor Trotsky Kyrgyz.

Ultimately, the failure of “color revolutions” was predetermined global economic recession. And not even his own, and its inevitable consequences, which did not even say yet fully. The ruling circles has brought the firm belief that sooner or later things will return to the starting point and will continue as before. This belief is based not only narrow-minded expectations of the “end of the crisis, but the behavior of the authorities, on the same basis are based business strategies of large corporations and small entrepreneurs. Worse, all plans change and hope for change in a society built on the same conviction that, ultimately, nothing has changed and will not change.

People invent the strategy of modernization, firmly believe that one can simply add the current reality of some beneficial improvements, and then life suddenly changed for the better. They do not realize that any strategy for partial improvements, sooner or later stumble on the immutability of the system and crash. And for that wreck someone to answer. Without knowing this, politicians are convinced, though will continue to play its role in the new play, Learn all a few words to the corrected text. And belonging to the government or the opposition does not change anything. The ideal of the opposition – a completely unchanging society. Only here with themselves in power. The ideal government is the preservation of the very order of things, which is the ideal opposition.

They are mistaken if they feel as though after the crisis, things will return to their seats. The fact that these places are long gone. Irreversible change is already occurring or have occurred – they simply have not yet understood. Understanding what happened is not due until after the event as a shock, a sudden awakening caused by a totally unexpected, not predicted and not a deliberate events.

Politics continues to be perceived as the sum of political technologies, manipulative measures taken by various pre-known players. The effectiveness of manipulation depends on the amount of money spent, competence of managers and the extent of administrative resources. No independent role, and even independent political will to “philistine” do not imply any “technology” or the citizens themselves. For a time the only alternative to the role of extras political circus people see the refusal to participate in it.

Mass apathy, indifference and cynicism, is quite happy with the power and, by and large, the opposition, makes the political process in a number of meaningless events in a social vacuum.

In fact, political apathy – in terms of genius phrase of Pushkin’s people remain silent “- there is nothing else as an indicator of profound alienation, the gap between the political system and the masses. And it is about the whole political system, with all its segments – official and unofficial, opposition and pro-government. Latent social protest is growing in the meantime, explosive material is stored. Moving large numbers of people from apathy to active revolt is a complete surprise not only for those in power, but for the masses themselves.

The events in Kyrgyzstan have shown what force can achieve the sudden explosion of public discontent. The question is, against what and against whom he will be sent. Opposition politicians, of course, can use the indignation of the masses against the current government, which automatically becomes responsible for all social ills. Use a wave of public protest may be the opposition, and some, annoyed by his colleagues, the fraction of power, and even a group of fortunate adventurers who have access to the media. But whether they will for a long time to control their elevated wave?

The “color revolutions” that occurred in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine, were a good example of the triumph of spin-doctoring. The crisis demonstrates its exhaustion.

It turned out that the original script was not fit anywhere. And, the more effort is made to implement it, the more ambitious proved to fail. An attempt to bring about change, without changing anything, was originally destined. You can not change the political landscape, without affecting the social system and economic order. Where social contradictions objectively demanded of social revolution, or at least structural reforms, have tried to do simulation “color revolutions”. Not surprisingly, the only outcome of such attempts was a new round of instability, for which, sooner or later comes the return of the masses on the street. But it would no longer be good-natured and tame “the masses”, and angry and do not trust anyone crowd.

The collapse of the “color revolutions” signifies not a return to the past, but rather the beginning of a new phase of a much more dramatic, showing that systemic problems had reached such a depth and acuity that deal with them anyway, one way or another, have to. The only question is who and how to cope with this task. At this point we have no clarity. Bishkek – is, after all, not Petrograd. Even in Petrograd of 1917, few could predict what turn will the event. And yet, one conclusion is already more than clear: whoever comes to power, until, until we found the permission objective social contradictions, divides society, there will be no peace or stability. And this conclusion is true not only of Kyrgyzstan.

Boris Kagarlitsky – Director, Institute of Globalization and Social Movements.

Two Sisters Injured In Taliban-Style Shariah Enforcement Acid Attack

Two sisters injured in acid attack

(apparently by ISI sponsered extremist group)

ccupied Balochistan:Two young girls, both sisters, aged 11 and 13, were severely injured on Tuesday evening in an acid attack while they were on their way home from a shopping centre in Dalbandin City, district Chaghai, Balochistan. They were rushed to a local hospital for initial medical aid, after which they were referred to the Civil Hospital Quetta, around seven hours away by road.

The victims’ parents are extremely poor, so much so that the local community had to contribute money and gather enough funds to send the sisters to the Civil Hospital Quetta by road, where they are currently under treatment.

While the acid-throwers remained unidentified, residents of the area believe that this attack was carried out by the shadowy ‘Baloch Ghaeratmand Group’.

A few days ago, the group, whose members remain unknown even in the close-knit community of Dalbandin city, which has a population of approximately 25,000 people, had distributed flyers in the area, warning women and young girls to remain indoors.

The pamphlet, which is in Urdu, declared that development did not mean that the local population went against the “Baloch culture of Chaddor and Char-Deewari” for women. It also clearly warned women and girls against stepping out of their houses with their faces uncovered, or even going to a doctor unaccompanied by a man. “Acid will be thrown on the faces of women and girls who step out of their houses without covering their faces,” the flyer says. It ends with a chilling warning: “People who fail to comply with these orders will themselves be responsible for the consequences.”

The local police, meanwhile, claim to have no idea about the perpetrators, or whether it was in any way related to the pamphlet issued by the “Baloch Ghaeratmand Group.” They did, however, say that further investigation was under way, and it was too early to pin responsibility on anyone.

“We have never heard of this group; we don’t even know who’s part of it, nor are they associated with the nationalists,” residents of the area told The News on the condition of anonymity. “We don’t know where they came from, or whose orders they’re working on. The police and the Frontier Constabulary (FC) claim to be helpless as well. If they, with all their powers, can’t do anything either, who are we supposed to turn to for assistance?”

Threats from relatively unknown groups, however, are not a new phenomenon in the region. Earlier this month, the Khuzdar Press Club had received threats from another new gang, the ‘Baloch Musallah Difa Tanzeem’, warning them against covering events organised by nationalist parties and groups.

By By Urooj Zia
Karachi

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=234246

Taliban/Sipah e-Sahaba Suicide Bomber Attacks Shiite Mourners at Hospital in Quetta

Police: Bomber kills 8 at SW Pakistan hospital

By ABDUL SATTAR (AP) – 57 minutes ago

QUETTA, Pakistan — A suicide bomber attacked a hospital emergency room where Shiite Muslims were mourning a slain bank manager on Friday, killing eight people including a journalist and two policemen in Pakistan’s main southwest city, police said.

The explosion in Quetta underscored the poor security conditions in Pakistan, a U.S. ally where sectarian violence remains a problem even as al-Qaida and Taliban militants pose a growing — and linked — threat. It wasn’t the first time that Shiite mourners have been attacked at hospitals in Pakistan, evidence of a tactic in vogue for their Sunni extremist foes.

Gunshots rang out after the explosion at the Civil Hospital, and rescuers carried away the dead and wounded, TV footage showed.

Among the dead was a cameraman working for Pakistan’s Samaa TV, said Saifuddin Khan, a hospital official. Two policemen also died, while 35 people were wounded in the apparent “sectarian attack,” said Qazi Abdul Wahid, a senior police investigator.

Journalists were at the hospital covering the aftermath of Friday’s morning shooting of the Shiite bank manager. The emergency room was full of the man’s friends and relatives when the bomber struck at the gate, said Mohammad Sabir, another police official.

Quetta is the capital of Baluchistan province, and it is believed to be a major center for the leadership of the Afghan Taliban. However, the violence that occurs in Baluchistan has been blamed on Baluch separatist groups or tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.

In February, suspected Sunni militants bombed a bus carrying Shiite worshippers and two hours later attacked a hospital treating the victims, killing 25 people and wounding 100 in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi.

And in August 2008, a suicide blast outside the emergency ward of a hospital crowded with Shiite Muslim mourners in the volatile northwest town of Dera Ismail Khan killed at least 27 people, including two police.

Suspected Sunni extremists also have attacked funeral processions of Shiite Muslim mourners.

Extremist Sunnis and Shiites in Pakistan have targeted each other’s leaders in violence that dates well before the 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States. But several of Pakistan’s Sunni extremist groups also are allied with the Taliban and al-Qaida, who view Shiites as infidels.

The Sunni-Shiite schism over the true heir to Islam’s Prophet Muhammad dates to the seventh century.

Taliban / Sipah-e-Sahaba’s attack on Shias in Quetta: At least 10 killed in suicide blast at Civil Hospital

Taliban / Sipah-e-Sahaba’s attack on Shias in Quetta: At least 10 killed in suicide blast at Civil Hospital

A suicide bomber on Friday (16 April 2010) blew himself up in a hospital in the southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta, killing at least ten persons, including a TV journalist (Samaa TV), a DSP, an MNA, and injuring over 35 others.

The majority of dead and injured are relatives and mourners of Mr Arshad Zaidi, a bank manager, who was earlier target killed in the day by sectarian terrorists of Taliban and Sipah-e-Sahaba. Source 12, 3

TV channels beamed dramatic footage of people running out of the hospital complex after the blast as a cloud of dust rose into the sky. The blast blackened the walls of the hospital and shattered  (the rest of the post has been deleted, for some reason)