Obama Administration Knew About Deepwater Horizon 35,000 Feet Well Bore

Obama Administration Knew About Deepwater Horizon

35,000 Feet Well Bore

Wayne Madsen – Oil Price.com June 22, 2010

President Obama and Secretary of Interior Ken Salazar, Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates were informed that BP would drill an unprecedented 35,000 feet well bore at the Macondo site off the coast of Louisiana. In September 2009, the Deepwater Horizon successfully sunk a well bore at a depth of 35,055 below sea level at the Tiber Prospect in the Keathley Canyon block 102 in the Gulf of Mexico, southeast of Houston.

Controlled burn off the coast of Louisiana in the Gulf

During the September drilling operations, the Deepwater Horizon drill penetrated a massive undersea oil deposit but BP’s priorities changed when the Macondo site in the Mississippi Canyon off the coast of Louisiana was found to contain some 3-4 billion barrels of oil in an underground cavern estimated to be about the size of Mount Everest. It was as a result of another 35,000 feet well bore sank by the Deepwater Horizon at the Macondo site that the catastrophic explosion occurred on April 20.

According to the Wayne Madsen Report (WMR) sources within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Pentagon and Interior and Energy Departments told the Obama Administration that the newly-discovered estimated 3-4 billion barrels of oil in the Gulf of Mexico would cover America’s oil needs for up to eight months if there was a military attack on Iran that resulted in the bottling up of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic, resulting in a cut-off of oil to the United States from the Persian Gulf.

Obama, Salazar, Chu, and Gates green-lighted the risky Macondo drilling operation from the outset, according to WMR’s government sources.

WMR learned that BP was able to have several safety checks waved because of the high-level interest by the White House and Pentagon in tapping the Gulf of Mexico bonanza find in order to plan a military attack on Iran without having to be concerned about an oil and natural gas shortage from the Persian Gulf after an outbreak of hostilities with Iran.

BP still has an ongoing operation to drill down to 40,000 feet below sea level at the Liberty field off the north coast of Alaska.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Obama-Administration-Knew-About-Deepwater-Horizon-35000-Feet-Well-Bore.html

Deepwater Horizon–The Worst-Case Scenario

By Richard Heinberg

22 June, 2010
Post Carbon

Reports from the Gulf of Mexico just keep getting worse. Estimates of the rate of oil spillage from the Deepwater Horizon wellhead just keep gushing (the latest official number: up to 60,000 barrels per day). Forecasts for how long it will take before the leak is finally plugged continue pluming toward August—maybe even December. In addition to the oil itself, BP has (in this case deliberately) spilled a million gallons of toxic Corexit dispersant. Biologists’ accounts of the devastation being wreaked on fish, birds, amphibians, turtles, coral reefs, and marshes grow more apocalyptic by the day—especially in view of the fact that the vast majority of animal victims die alone and uncounted. Warnings are now being raised that the natural gas being vented along with the oil will significantly extend the giant dead zones in the Gulf. And guesses as to the ultimate economic toll of this still-unfolding tragedy—on everything from the tourism and fishing industries of at least five coastal states to the pensioners in Britain whose futures are at risk if BP files for bankruptcy or is taken over by a Chinese oil company—surge every time an analyst steps back to consider the situation from another angle.

We all want the least-bad outcome here. But what if events continue on the current trajectory—that is, what if the situation keeps deteriorating? Just how awful could this get?

For weeks various petroleum engineers and geologists working on the sidelines have speculated that the problems with the Deepwater Horizon may go deep—that the steel well casing, and the cement that seals and supports that casing against the surrounding rock, may have been seriously breached far beneath the seabed. If that is true, then escaping oil mixed with sand could be eroding what’s left of the well casing and cement, pushing out through the cracks and destabilizing the ground around the casing. According to Lisa Margonelli in The Atlantic:

There is the possibility that as the ground and the casing shift, the whole thing collapses inward, the giant Blow Out Preventer falls over, the drill pipe shoots out of the remains of the well, or any number of other scenarios,” that could making it virtually impossible ever to cap the well or even to plug it at depth via relief wells.

Read, for example, this comment at TheOilDrum.com, a site frequented by oil industry technical insiders who often post anonymously. The author of the comment, “dougr,” argues fairly persuasively that disintegration of the sub-surface casing and cement is the best explanation for the recent failure of “top kill” efforts to stop the oil flow by forcibly injecting mud into the wellhead.

Concerns about the integrity of the sub-seabed well casing appear also to be motivating some seriously doomerish recent public statements from Matt Simmons, the energy investment banker who decided to go rogue a couple of years ago following the publication of his controversial Peak Oil book Twilight in the Desert. Simmons says, for example, that “it could be 24 years before the deepwater gusher ends,” a forecast that makes little sense if one accepts the conventional view of what’s wrong with the Deepwater Horizon well and how long it will take to plug it with relief wells.

Are these concerns credible? From a technical standpoint, it is clear that improperly cemented wells can and do rupture and cause blowouts. It’s fairly clear that this is part of what happened with Deepwater Horizon. But is the well casing further disintegrating, and is oil escaping the well bore horizontally as well as vertically? We just don’t know. And that is largely due to the fact that BP is as opaque on this score as it has been with regard to nearly every sensitive technical issue (including the rate of leakage) since its drilling rig exploded two months ago.

So far, up to 3.6 million barrels of oil have spilled into the Gulf. The size of the Macondo oilfield has been estimated as being anywhere from 25 to 100 million barrels. It is unclear how much of that oil-in-place would escape upward into Gulf waters if its flow remained completely unchecked, but it is safe to assume that at least half, and probably a much greater proportion, would eventually drain upward. That means many times as much oil would enter the Gulf waters as has done so until now.

Already Deepwater Horizon is the not only the worst oil spill, but the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. Multiplying the scale of this existing catastrophe multiple times sends us into truly uncharted territory.

Already, coastal ecosystems are being shredded; for a sense of how bad it is for wildlife in the Gulf now, just read “Biologists fear Gulf wildlife will suffer for generations.”In a truly worst case, oil — and perhaps dissolved methane as well — would hitch a ride on ocean currents out to the deep Atlantic, spreading ecological destruction far and wide.

For the economies of coastal states, a worst-case leakage scenario would be utterly devastating. Not only the fishing industry, but the oil industry as well would be fatally crippled, due to the disruption of operations at refineries. Shipping via the Mississippi River, which handles 60 percent of all U.S. grain exports, could be imperiled, since the Port of South Louisiana, the largest bulk cargo port in the world, might have to be closed if ships are unable to operate in oil-drenched waters. Unemployment in the region would soar and economic refugees would scatter in all directions.

The consequences for BP would almost certainly be fatal: it is questionable whether the corporation can survive even in the best case (that is, if “bottom kill” efforts succeed in August); if the spill goes on past the end of the year, then claims against the company and investor flight will probably push it into bankruptcy. Americans may shed few tears over this prospect, but BP happens to be Great Britain’s largest corporation, so the impact to the British economy could be substantial.

The consequences for the oil industry as a whole would also be dire. More regulations, soaring insurance rates, and drilling moratoria would lead to oil price spikes and shortages. Foreign national oil companies could of course continue to operate much as before, but the big independent companies, even if they shifted operations elsewhere, would be hit hard.

For President Obama, an environmental disaster of the scale we are discussing could have political consequences at least equivalent to those of the Iranian hostage crisis during the Carter presidency. Obama’s only chance at survival would be an FDR-like show of leadership backed by bold energy and economic plans and ruthless disregard for partisan bickering and monied interests.

For the U.S. economy, already weakened by a still-unfolding financial crisis, a worst-case scenario in the Gulf could be the last straw. The cumulative impacts—falling grain exports, soaring unemployment in southeastern coastal states, higher oil prices—would almost certainly spell the end to any hope of recovery and might push the nation into the worst Depression in its history.

We would all prefer not even to contemplate such a scenario, much less live with it. It is irresponsible to inflict needless worry on readers on the basis of entirely speculative and extremely unlikely events. But the more I learn about the technical issues, and the worse news gets, the more likely this scenario seems. We all hope that a relief well will succeed in stopping the oil flow sometime around August, and that until then BP will be able to siphon off most of the oil escaping through the riser and damaged blowout preventer. But one has to wonder: is anyone at the White House seriously considering the worst-case scenario? And what should citizens be doing to prepare, just in case?

CIA gives Blackwater firm new $100 million contract

The Central Intelligence Agency has hired Xe Services, the private security firm formerly known as Blackwater Worldwide, to guard its facilities in Afghanistan and elsewhere, according to an industry source.

The previously undisclosed CIA contract is worth about $100 million, said the industry source, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the deal, which is classified.

“It’s for protective services … guard services, in multiple regions,” said the source.

Two other security contractors, Triple Canopy and DynCorp International, put in losing bids for the CIA’s business, the source said.

The revelation comes only a day after members of a federal commission investigating war-zone contractors blasted the State Department for granting Blackwater with a new $120 million contract to guard U.S. consulates under construction in Afghanistan.

CIA spokesman Paul Gimigliano stopped short of confirming the contract, saying only that Xe personnel would not be involved in operations.

“While this agency does not, as a rule, comment on contractual relationships we may or may not have, we follow all applicable federal laws and regulations,” Gimigliano said.

The spokesman added, “We have a very careful process when it comes to procurement, and we take it seriously. We’ve also made it clear that personnel from Xe do not serve with CIA in any operational roles.”

Mark Corallo, a spokesman for Xe Services president Erik Prince, said the company would have no comment.
“Blackwater has undergone some serious changes,” maintained a U.S. official who is familiar with the deal and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss it freely.

“They’ve had to if they want to survive. They’ve had to prove to the government that they’re a responsible outfit. Having satisfied every legal requirement, they have the right to compete for contracts. They have people who do good work, at times in some very dangerous places. Nobody should forget that, either.”

The Moyock, N.C.-based firm has been fighting off prosecutions and civil suits since a September 2007 incident in Baghdad, when its guards opened fire in a city square, allegedly killing 17 unarmed civilians and wounding 24.

In December a federal judge threw out charges against five of the alleged Blackwater shooters on procedural grounds, but the Justice Department is appealing the ruling.

Early this year German prosecutors launched a preliminary investigation into allegations that the CIA sent Blackwater operatives on an assassination mission against a suspected terrorist in Hamburg, Germany, in 2001.

In April, meanwhile, a federal grand jury indicted five of Prince’s top deputies, including his legal counsel, on 15 counts of conspiracy, weapons and obstruction-of-justice charges.

Prince personally has not been charged with any crimes.

Members of the federal Commission on Wartime Contracting hammereda State Department official during a hearing Monday, repeatedly asking how much weight was given to Blackwater’s record when the decision was made to give the firm a new contract last week.

“I don’t want to guess,” said Charlene Lamb, the department’s assistant director of International Programs.

Apparently weary of all the controversy, Prince announced two weeks ago he was putting the company on the block.

“A number of firms” are interested in buying the company, a spokeswoman said, declining to elaborate.

Meanwhile, on June 15, The Nation magazine reported that Prince was considering moving to the United Arab Emirates.

“If Prince’s rumored future move is linked to concerns over possible indictment,” wrote Jeremy Scahill, author of a book on Blackwater, “the United Arab Emirates would be an interesting choice for a new home — particularly because it does not have an extradition treaty with the United States.”

Prince’s spokesman Corallo declined to discuss his client’s plans, saying “his personal life is his own.”

By Jeff Stein

Where Is the Conscience of Capitalism?

Forbes India: the conscience of capitalism

Arun Maira , Forbes India

At a meeting in Sweden recently of young people from around the world, a Nigerian woman shared the grief of her people. She said that, every year for the past 20 years, large quantities of oil, as much as that leaking into the Gulf of Mexico from the broken BP oil rig, have been spilling in her country from an MNC’s leaking pipelines and broken rigs. The waterways have become completely contaminated. The waters are so oily they even burn! Water for drinking and bathing is hard to come by. The health of the people has been badly affected. There are no more fish to catch. Agriculture is impossible. Livelihoods are destroyed. The US media is full of anger with BP for the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. She sympathised with the people of Louisiana whose concerns are known to the whole world now, but she wondered if they even knew what had been happening in Nigeria all these years?

The Indian media is filled with anger with Union Carbide and the tragedy of Bhopal. When a rare brown pelican was smothered in oil in Louisiana, the US President said he was looking for someone’s ass to kick in BP. The people of Bhopal, where thousands of human beings were killed, ask the Indian government why no one’s ass has been kicked.

These tragedies have raised emotionally charged issues of justice: Of who should be punished; and of double standards — one for the rich and another for poor countries. Beneath these issues are important questions about the responsibilities and liabilities of business corporations, especially multinationals, and about the roles of governments in regulating their behaviour and protecting public interests. These are also questions in the recent debates about who was responsible for the global financial crisis whose fallout has affected many common people. To these questions let us turn.

Thomas Friedman, author of the paean to globalisation, The World is Flat, had written an earlier book,The Lexus and the Olive Tree, that explained how the world is not yet flat. The Lexus car was his metaphor for globalisation: A universally desired product of technology, produced by a multinational corporation. The Olive Tree represented the deep roots in traditions and identities which resist the forces ofglobalisation. His conclusion was that the Lexus would prevail. It may some day, but it will be a struggle. Because the last few years have shown the strength of the Olive Tree’s roots in the demands of communities and nations for their rights to land, resources, dignity and respect.

With information and money sloshing across the world, accelerated by new communication technologies, institutions and ideas of globalisation are spreading across national boundaries. Meanwhile, governments — especially elected governments — must respond to the demands for justice and protection from people within their boundaries. Such are the demands for tribal rights and affirmative action, and even demands for new states.

Many of these demands, springing from histories of injustice, may not sound ‘rational’ to the economists and technologists propounding globalisation. However, with the rapid spread of ideas of human rights, multiplication in the numbers of NGOs fighting for various causes, an explosion of access to information, and very active media, governments ignore these demands at their peril.

At the same time, governments are urged by the global finance lobby and multinational corporations to open their boundaries further to attract investments. In the view of these lobbies, governments that do not make life easy for them are not progressive. Indeed, the chairman of Dow Chemicals, irked by new regulations imposed by the US government after the Enron and WorldCom scandals, said he dreamt of shifting the headquarters of his corporation to an island not subject to any government so that he could be free to make more profits for his shareholders! Thus the stage is set for clashes and governments must intermediate between the forces of the Lexus and the Olive Tree.

Ronald Reagan had said that government is not the solution, it is the problem. Too much rolling back of government contributed to the recent financial crisis in the US. The Government did too little. It should have tamed the animal spirits in the market, its critics now say. Let us look, therefore, into the nature of the beast that is to be tamed, viz. corporations.

The limited liability corporation is an invention of man: A device created to attract capital. The liabilities of investors are limited to encourage them to invest and take risks with their capital. Abraham Lincoln wrote in 1864 after the Civil War, “I see in the future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the future of my country. As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavour to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.” Over the next 150 years, through a series of legal and ideological battles, corporations acquired all the rights of citizens to protection of properties and other freedoms. In addition, they obtained privileges of limited liability and other protections that human citizens do not have. This history has been documented by Ted Nace in an excellent book with a provocative title, The Gangs of America: The Rise of Corporate Power and the Disabling of Democracy. Thus we have institutions and laws whereby corporations can internalise and privatise profits while costs of damages to communities and the environment are externalised and socialised.

When a citizen does wrong, you know whose ass to kick. When a corporation causes harm, who exactly should take the rap? Moreover, unlike a person, as Nace points out, a corporation can do the Houdini — disappear and reappear in another body with a new name — and avoid being punished.

Such are the questions that President Obama and the American people, and also the Indian government and Indian people, are grappling with. Whenever the leaders of the US and India come together, as they will again when President Obama visits India later this year, they proclaim the partnership between the two largest democracies in the world. Along side such visits, business leaders from both countries also meet to promote investments and trade.

Should not these dialogues between government and industry leaders also be about the evolution of better institutions of democracy, and capitalism, and within that, the role of corporations? Because, as leaders of the largest democracies, they must also show leadership in the evolution of ideas and institutions.

Mankind has developed many powerful ‘dual use’ technologies that can do great good but, in the wrong hands, can do great harm too. These include nuclear energy and bio-genetics. Who can be trusted with their power? What safeguards must be in place? The large, limited liability corporation is also a powerful ‘dual use’ concept invented by man. The agenda for co-operation between the US and India is fraught with debates about these ‘dual use’ technologies.

Business needs freedom to take risks, innovate and increase wealth. Governments must protect their citizens and promote the common cause. Therefore, even as governments promote business, they must also regulate it. Business leaders resent regulation. They would rather be trusted to regulate their own behaviour. They must always remember that corporations are given a licence to operate by society, and that society can curb or even withdraw that license. The most egregious illustration of this is the conduct of the East India Company. It was given a charter by the Crown to trade in the East. The minutes of its board meetings in London show that the board was hardly concerned about the conditions of the people in the places in which the company operated. It was concerned about financing the missions; it charged its operators abroad to make profits; and it decided the dividends for the investors. When the conduct of the Company’s operators became intolerable, the people rebelled, and the Crown was compelled to withdrawthe Company’s charter.

Self regulation requires a conscience. Corporations are the engines of capitalism. Wherein lies the conscience of the corporation — an inanimate, legal construct devised by man? That is the question at the heart of corporate governance. Does it lie in the board, which society should trust to ensure that the corporation causes no harm? If so, is the board equipped with the moral precepts, intellectual ideas and norms of conduct that will enable it to discharge its responsibility to society? The responsibility of the chairman of the board is to ensure that the board is so equipped. A capable board with a conscience can ensure that the corporation’s executive management is well equipped to act responsibly too.

Finally, as the woman from Nigeria said in Sweden, the people want the buck to stop somewhere. They are tired of buck-passing. Great leaders admit the buck stops with them.

(Arun Maira, the author, is a member of the Planning Commission.)

The RAND study

Arriving on the heels of the London School of Economics (LSE) report comes a RAND study aimed at identifying the extent of Pakistan’s counterinsurgency operations and reasons for their limited success. This latest analysis does not offer anything new to the case argued by Matt Waldman, the author of the LSE report, which stated that the ISI continues to have strong links with the Afghan Taliban and is officially represented in the Quetta Shura. Whatever the reservations about the authenticity of that report, these allegations are not new. They may have served as an eye-opener to naïve counterparts in the west but they are hardly a revelation for Pakistan, where our efforts for ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan and employing jihadist outfits for foreign policy gains have by now compromised our own national security. The RAND report states that apart from posing a threat to Pakistan itself, this courting of insurgents and extremist networks could make possible another attack on US soil.

Outrightly denying such claims may no longer fly as recent reports suggest that Pakistan is trying to act as a mediator between the Haqqani network and the Karzai government for a post-US withdrawal setup in Afghanistan. If the establishment did not continue to have its links with the Afghan Taliban, such speculation about a possible power-sharing setup would not have seen the light of day.

Such reports only serve as reminders that our establishment has not managed a clean break from the Afghan Taliban. This is unwise as recent events have indicated the growing nexus between the TTP, the Punjabi Taliban, splinter factions, the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda. The idea of ‘good’ Taliban remains a myth and our establishment would be better served by acknowledging this truth.

The RAND study blames continued ties with militants as the reason that Pakistan’s operations against the militants since 2001 have only been partially successful. Long-term strategies need to include addressing deficiencies in the local police, providing aid to displaced civilians, advancing development and creating sound administrative structures. The study has noted that such measures do not adequately exist.

The RAND study seems somewhat removed from ground realities. The study claims that local support for military action against the militants is low. However, it would have done the authors well to have analysed the public wrath at the terrorists after recent, indiscriminate attacks on innocent civilians. The militants are losing sympathy and thus, the study does not correctly represent the psyche of Pakistan’s masses. Where it is right is that the same public eyes the US with suspicion as promises of military and economic aid are still to be realised.

Another rather ignorant assertion is that the US should lessen its reliance on Pakistan, starting with looking for alternative supply routes into Afghanistan, citing Iran as a possible option. Considering the deadlock between Iran and the US, and the fact that the rest of the region is a hotbed of political and social instability, RAND should have thought this through better.

RAND has now, for the first time ever, spelled out that the US ought to extend civil nuclear cooperation to Pakistan only if it sustains sincere, long lasting counterinsurgency efforts. That sounds like blackmail for offering us a facility that India enjoys on a discriminatory basis.

For all its claims and analysis, the solutions offered by RAND are hardly convincing. Besides suspicions of ties between Pakistan and the militants, which can hardly be denied, the study is little more than a half-cooked attempt at introducing revised vigour to this war in the US’s interest alone, a recipe for a bigger disaster tomorrow.

TTP warns NATO suppliers of grave consequences

LANDIKOTAL: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has put up posters in the main market in Landikotal, warning those who supply goods to NATO forces in Afghanistan to stop doing so, threatening those who fail to comply with attacks on their homes. The warning was written on the letterhead of the TTP with the name, sign and stamp of Hakimullah Mehsud, the TTP chief. Political administration sources said that a current halt in the supply to NATO forces had nothing to do with the TTP notice; rather, it was due to an increase in Afghan border taxes. The notices say that those working at the NATO supply terminals, those supplying their forces and those protecting their supplies, all deserve to be killed.

The Baloch reality

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi

Balochistan, Mea Culpa! We are to blame. We are so sorry. We agree with your every complaint. We intend to make amends. Please take note of our awards, packages, amendments and initiatives. Won’t you at least be appreciative and put your faith in our good intentions? Can’t you see, if not feel, the pained conscience of our liberal elite over your plight?

Well, if more than 60 years of alienation and exploitation can be washed away so easily it would be very convenient indeed. But Balochistan is not just a major issue in itself; it also represents the cumulative consequence for a country of deliberate and exploitative neglect, stupid self-serving governance, and the arrogant and ignorant use of force, under civilian and military rule, for six decades.

The alienation of the Baloch is just the most salient consequence of the systematic betrayal of the people of Pakistan. Placating them is not just a matter of striking sympathetic and soothing postures, it requires altering the governing context for the country as a whole – something that the ruling elite, not surprisingly, finds unacceptably inconvenient. They are the problem that has to be resolved for any answers to a whole range of specific issues, including Balochistan, to become available.

The ruling elite believes that demonizing Baloch leaders – especially if they resist its blandishments – and trying to recruit more Baloch into its ranks, including the military, can address the problem. This does not represent just arrogance and ignorance; it represents an attitude that sees the Baloch problem as something they can live with, because it can be contained even if never resolved. The Baloch are few in number. The people of the other provinces have their own problems and little contact with the Baloch who, by and large, live beyond the Indus Valley. Iran fears Baloch nationalism even more than Pakistan. Afghanistan has few links with and therefore little sympathy for the Baloch. India may try to leverage the situation to pressure Pakistan but is in no position to effectively assist the Baloch. The US may wish to use the Baloch against Iran but not, as yet, against Pakistan. Like the Kurds, the Baloch have no strategic friends. They can be suppressed at affordable cost – paid for by their own resources.

Moreover, the indigenous people of Balochistan are not one. There are the Baloch, the Brahwi, and the Pashtun. The latter do not identify with the Baloch nationalist cause. The Brahwi have a much more complicated relationship with the Baloch who consider the Brahwi as part of themselves. The Brahwi see themselves as acculturated and politically affiliated to the Baloch but with a distinct identity and language of their own. The Khan of Kalat and some tribes and sub-tribes are considered both Baloch and Brahwi. In recent years, religion and religious parties have come to play a more significant role among the Brahwi than among the Baloch. Nationalist Baloch in an effort to maximize political support claim to speak three languages: Balochi, Brahwi and Seraiki. The Brahwi only claim to speak their own language: Brahwi. Nevertheless, all said and done, the Brahwi are sympathetic to the Baloch nationalist movement and many of them play an active role in it. After all, the areas where neither the Pakistani flag is flown nor the national anthem is sung include Brahwi-inhabited areas.

What about the Baloch sardars? One often hears that the Baloch movement is only a stunt by the sardars to keep their medieval privileges over their own people safe from the modernizing influences of Pakistan. Alternately, and somewhat contradictorily, one hears that of the 70 or so Baloch sardars only three or four are associated with the Baloch national movement and the rest are patriotic Pakistanis. The truth is more complicated. The Baloch sense of grievance is not confined to nationalist sardars. It is shared by the whole Baloch intelligentsia. The sardars of irrigated areas are dependent on the good will of the local administration and have traditionally suffered from the raids of the more independent Baloch hill tribes. Accordingly, they have sought administrative protection against them, and continue this pattern of seeking official patronage today. But they do not wield any influence among the Baloch intelligentsia of today, including students, teachers, lawyers, professionals, etc. who collectively shape Baloch political opinion.

How does this Baloch intelligentsia view Baloch sardars? They make a distinction. They have, by and large, no sympathy for the pro-establishment sardars. As for the nationalist sardars, whatever reservations they may have with regard to their contemporary social relevance, they regard them as essential assets and symbols in their political struggle against the exploitation of the ruling elite of Pakistan – who are seen to be concentrated in the military and from Punjab. Accordingly, they support the nationalist sardars wholeheartedly, particularly the elder generation who led the fourth Baloch rebellion or freedom struggle against Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and later, in their declining years, the fifth struggle against General Musharraf which continues today. It is true neither Bhutto nor Musharraf were Punjabis. But they were seen to be backed by Panjab-based institutions and priorities.

It is this perception that has led to the tragic phenomenon of targeted assassinations of “non-locals” who have lived for generations in Balochistan which they consider their home and have served admirably. Their loss would be disastrous for Balochistan. The Baloch intelligentsia, however, will not allow anyone to drive a wedge between them and the nationalist sardars, even though it is possible that they feel that when they achieve their nationalist goals the role of all sardars and tumandars would have to be superseded by contemporary democratic and development imperatives. Moreover, they are convinced an independent Balochistan would be economically viable.

What about the Pashtun of Balochistan? They have less grievances than the Baloch. But they are the “invisible people” of Balochistan. They feel politically ignored and taken for granted. So many informed people, including those in government positions in the rest of Pakistan, regard them as settlers from Afghanistan or Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. In fact they are indigenous people who used to belong to the Kandahar province of Afghanistan before the British detached and included them and their areas in British Balochistan. They are happy to be Pakistanis but have grievances with regard to their situation in what they see as a Baloch dominated administration. The potential flash point between the Baloch and the Pashtun could be the city of Quetta. The Khans of Kalat used to own Quetta. But it was gifted to them by Ahmad Shah Abdali of Afghanistan. The current Baloch aspiration for an independent country would certainly include Quetta as its likely capital. The Pashtun, however, regard themselves and the Brahwi as the indigenous inhabitants of the Quetta region, and would not accept inclusion in an independent Balochistan, or the loss of Quetta to it.

These are possible future scenarios. But they could be made real by the continued mishandling of the situation in Balochistan which, as stated, is integrally related to misrule in Pakistan. By and large, despite local rivalries and complaints about allocation of state resources including government jobs, the Baloch/Brahwi and the Pashtun co-exist amicably. The Pashtun of Balochistan accept their identity as Balochistanis. While they have a strong feeling of solidarity with the Pakhtun of KP (and of Afghanistan) there is no desire among them to be included in KP or ruled from Peshawar, which is considered too far, and from where they would be considered as a marginal people. Moreover, their economy depends on the resources of Balochistan which are largely located in Baloch areas as is their access to the coastal areas of the country. Accordingly, a policy of relying on the Pashtun and non-locals as a counter to Baloch grievance-based aspirations would be disastrous for the whole province and, indeed, the whole country.

This is the essence of the situation in Balochistan which needs to be considered by every concerned Pakistani. What are the solutions? Without accepting these realities there are none. If we do, they will be possible if not easy. It is our choice.

The writer is Pakistan’s former envoy to the US and India. Email: ashrafjqazi@yahoo.com

Kyber-Pakhtoonkhaw bars Nato containers entry

[SEE: TERRORISM AT WHERE THERE IS NO ROAD TO AFGHANISTAN (EXCLUSIVE Report from Peshawar)]

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The containers were stopped at Attock Bridge to avoid any untoward incident as there were reports of security threats. – (File Photo)

ISLAMABAD: The provincial government of Kyber-Pakhtoonkhaw has denied entry to 50 containers of NATO supplies on Wednesday.

According to sources, intelligence agencies informed the local government that the terrorists could target containers and therefore, the containers have been stopped at Attock Bridge to avoid any untoward incident. Intelligence agencies have shared the information with federal and provincial governments in this connection and recommended to boost security measures.

Swedish Dock-Workers Union Joining Protest, Block Israeli Cargo

[SEE: Protestors Block Israeli Cargo in California ] Swedish Dockers Block Israeli Cargo in Gaza Protest 23/06/2010 The Swedish Dock Workers Union on Wednesday launched a week-long blockade of cargo to and from the Zionist entity to protest the Israeli raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla last month, a union representative told AFP. The blockade, which also applies to Israeli ships, was launched “because of the assault on the Ship to Gaza (flotilla), that we supported before they took off … and the blockade of the Gaza strip, which affects the civilian population,” union spokesman Rolf Axelsson said. The dock workers’ protest was to take place in all unionized Swedish ports, and ends at midnight (2200 GMT) on June 29. Union chairman Bjoern A. Borg added the union called for an international investigation into the May 31 raid that killed nine pro-Palestinian activists. He told AFP the dock workers believed Israel’s easing of its Gaza blockade, announced on Sunday, was insufficient. Eleven Swedes, including crime writer Henning Mankell, took part in the flotilla and were briefly taken into Israeli custody. (AFP)

Intersection Between Reality and Pipeline Plans–Moment of Opportunity?

[The following rough translation from Russian relates the ripple effect in pipeline plans that has been created by lagging oil production numbers in Kazakhstan, compared to projections made, upon which the pipeline plans are all based (see MAP).  Reality has failed to keep the schedule set by planners.  The short delay in projected production in Kazakh oil fields will mean that there will be a "donut hole," a 2-3 year interval where finished pipelines will sit idle, waiting for enough product to fill them to capacity.  As the author explains below, this  anticipated delay of Kazakh oil has Russian state pipeline company looking westward to perhaps share in the Caspian CPC consortium.  The delay in Russia's game at the same time that American influence appears to be on the wane, could translate into a chaotic international lack of direction at a time when the world is in dire need of a new direction.  Perhaps that will represent a time of opportunity for the anti-state and anti-corporate interests to move forward with new grass roots initiatives.]

“Transneft” wants to SHARE

Sergei racially

As it became known last week, the state company Transneft would like to increase its stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).This is not surprising, given that Kazakhstan in the near future is not going to boost the supply of “black gold” that would bypass Russia …

Perhaps this interest in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is associated with the latest news from Kazakhstan. As said in an interview with Trend chairman of the national company KazMunaiGas (KMG) Kayrgeldy Kabyldin, “by 2012 will not be big oil, and we assume that for the period 2014-2016 years will not be the actual volumes of oil to justify the construction of the Kazakhstan Caspian System Transportation (CCST). Accordingly, the timing of the start of the transport project being postponed.

We recall that until quite recently assured the public about the imminent doubling of oil production in three years thanks to oil from the major Kashagan oil field. The estimated recoverable reserves of the Kashagan field were in the range of 7 to 9 billion barrels of oil and total reserves of hydrocarbons of this structure were evaluated – at 38 billion barrels. And if now Kazakhstan annually produces about 70 million tons of oil, three years later pledged to nearly double crude oil production. Accordingly, under the new volumes of “black gold” cooked pipelines and transportation systems. Plans Kazakh “oil industry” very strained Russians, because President Nursultan Nazarbayev and industry executives do not hide the fact that in the near future oil will bypass Russia.

However, once again plans changed. From what he said Kayrgeldy Kabyldin big oil from Kashagan, has been postponed for at least another three years.The second phase of the Kashagan operation is not approved. ”It will be approved in 2010. It is reasonable to assume that there is a delay the next stage, they (the shareholders of the consortium of North-Caspian project to develop the Kashagan) is an obligation only for the early oil, that is, give it no later than October 2013 “, – said the chief oilman country. It turns out that the first phase of the Kashagan operation “will be produced from 370 thousand to 450 thousand barrels. day. ”These volumes, according to experts, can be transported on the system CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium is under the patronage of the Russians) after the expansion, the Chinese oil pipeline and the pipeline Aktau-Baku – Batumi”, – explained the EP. Next Kayrgeldy Kabyldin suggests that for the period 2014-2016 years will not be big oil, in principle. Therefore the construction of the Kazakhstan Caspian Transportation System (CCTS) is postponed “until a later date. Recall that the Kazakhstan Caspian Transportation System includes oil-Eskene Kuryk and Trans-Caspian system (the terminal at the Kazakh coast of the Caspian Sea, tankers and the terminal in the Azeri Caspian Sea and connecting facilities to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan).

In the autumn of last year at the IV Eurasian Energy Forum KazEnergy, Kazakhstan national oil company KazMunaiGaz and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR or SOCAR) have decided to implement the Trans-Caspian project. How, then told reporters the head KazMunaiGaz Kairgeldy Kabyldin. The oil in the Trans-Caspian oil transportation system will be delivered by tanker to the terminal city Kuryk (Kazakhstan) to Baku, and then enter the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). Power system at the first stage of the order of 27 million tonnes per year. President of SOCAR Rovnag Abdullayev noted that “the expected increase in the near future export of Kazakh oil through Azerbaijan and we are exploring the possibility of delivery of these volumes on the Baku – Supsa pipeline and the construction of a new pipeline to the Black Sea.” Then, the second of October a visit of President Nursultan Nazarbayev in Baku and the agreement between KazMunaiGas and SOCAR on the implementation of Trans-Caspian system was signed.

From the above we can make several conclusions. First, fears the Russians that the CTC slowly and methodically set aside, were in vain. The main oil was going, and will go through Russia. Lobbying for the idea of a new agreement to expand the CTC, Moscow tried to prevent the connection of Kazakhstan to the project of “Kazakhstan Caspian Transport System”, involving the transport oil to Azerbaijan and further to the BTC system. What eventually happened. Secondly, there is little that the BTC moribund, so Transcaspian system is now under a big question that will not result in ecstasy, above all the Azerbaijani and Turkish sides. Thirdly, investment in the CTC is becoming a very profitable asset. Fourthly, on hand to shareholders CTC are sanctions against Iran. If they are tightened, then to transport oil Iranian ports closed. While in transit through Iran there are no limitations, but there is no guarantee that the UN Security Council will not go to the next round of anti-Iran measures.

To date, Transneft owns 31% shares of CTC. From the Russian shareholders are located at the 12,5% of LUKOIL and 3.75% in Rosneft. However, to expand its portfolio of “Transneft” will not be easy. For all their interest, besides from the words of the expansion down to business and by 2014 the CTC from the current 35 million tonnes per year will increase capacity to 67 million. Whatever it was, but the share of Kazakhstan in 19% of “Transneft” is not meant exactly, since oil is loaded with oil from Kazakstan. It is therefore likely the talks will go with the owners of the smallest shares of BG Overseas Holding Limited (UK) – 2%, Eni International HAHVSar.l. (Italy) – 2%, and Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC (USA), which has 1.75% of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

Sergei racially – political commentator

Dreams of Iranian Oil and Gas–Nightmares of Tricky US/UN Resolutions

[The big question concerning the heart of the following story, as recently expressed by AfPak Amb. Holbrooke, is: Will US moves against Iran at the UN make pipeline projects which benefit Iran economically illegal?  If the answer is yes, then will either Pakistan or India be willing to go against international treaty law, to obtain Iranian gas?  SEE: UN Iranian Sanctions Will Bend Pipeline Nations To America’s Will]

Iran to India: Energy alliance between South and Central Asia

– by Shiraz Paracha

[thanks to Let Us Build Pakistan for the map]

LUBP Exclusive

Pakistan and India both face energy shortages but this crisis can be turned into a huge opportunity if (and there is big if) India and Pakistan are able to form an alliance that also includes Iran and the Central Asian republics. The driving force behind the alliance between South and Central Asia should be energy.

The United States and the European Union (EU) are likely to oppose such an alliance because their eyes are on the Iranian and Central Asian energy resources. The EU, in particular, needs oil and gas from Central Asia because of its land connectivity with Central Asia. Nearly 25 per cent of the EU gas imports are from Russia.

In the coming years, through new networks of pipelines, oil and gas from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan can be transported to the EU and if a pro-Western government is installed in Tehran, the Iranian oil and gas will also flow to the EU via pipelines that will connect Central Asia with Europe. But the EU plans of energy export from Central Asia may jeopardize if the Central Asian and Iranian oil and gas start flowing eastwards to China as well as to the Indian Sub-continent.

Pakistan and India are home to more than one billion people and therefore the demand for energy is very high in the both countries. Neighboring China also requires tremendous amount of energy to keep its economic growth. China is already importing energy from Central Asia.

Western policy makers fear that if most of the Central Asian and Iranian energy resources are diverted to China and the Indian Sub-continent, the West can be deprived from alternate sources of energy thus the Western opposition to the eastward export of Iranian and Central Asian energy is understandable. NATO’s continuing occupation of Afghanistan may have a link with energy exports. Perhaps, energy is also one of the causes of the West’s troubles with Iran.

By playing energy politics the West is protecting its interests. India, Iran and Pakistan or China should also defend their interests. The easiest way to export oil and gas from Central Asia to India and Pakistan is through Afghanistan. Iranian gas can also reach to India via Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The landmark gas pipeline agreement between Tehran and Islamabad is a great achievement for the power stricken Pakistan but it should be the beginning of a long journey. The US objections to the project are hypocritical and are part of the US vicious agenda against Iran.

Currently, the energy-hungry India is vigorously building relations with Central Asian states to gain direct access to Central Asian energy resources. India wants to do it alone and is focusing on possibilities of opening land routes that bypass Pakistan. Reopening of the ancient Silk Road through China’s Xinjiang region is one option for Indian policy makers. The second possibility is the development of North-South Corridor or road through Iran and Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, the most feasible route for energy imports to India from the former Soviet republics is through Afghanistan and Pakistan. India can also export its products to Central Asian markets using the same route but the main constraint for India’s access to Central Asia via Pakistan is hostility between India and Pakistan and instability in Afghanistan.

India’s energy demands are growing fast. It is one of the largest importers of energy resources in the world. By the end of 2010, India’s oil requirements are expected to exceed three million barrels per day. India also needs gas imports as consumption of gas is growing very rapidly in the country. Currently, 70 percent of India’s crude oil and gas demands are met by imports from the Persian Gulf states but to maintain stable economic growth India needs additional and smooth supplies of oil and gas. Central Asia can offer India an opportunity to meet its energy needs at a comparatively lower price but access to cheaper energy resources of land-locked Central Asia is problematic.
However, the energy crisis is more serious in Pakistan.

Power cuts have crippled Pakistan’s economy and the country’s 180 million people are suffering. Pakistan can import cheap electricity from Tajikistan and it can also utilize Central Asian technical expertise in different forms of power generation. Pakistan can import oil and gas products from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and even from Russia using the Afghan route. But so far Pakistan has not been able to take the strategic advantage that it has for building relations with Central Asia.
Pakistan was hostile towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In the post Cold War years, the Pakistani military has destroyed any goodwill, left in Central Asia for Pakistan, by supporting the Taliban and exporting militancy.

Since the removal of the Taliban regime, India has been developing relations with Kabul but unfortunately New Delhi seems to be more interested in using Afghanistan as a base against Pakistan.
India enjoys warm and friendly relations with Central Asian countries; however, it cannot fully utilize the benefits of these relations and meet its energy demands without land transport connectivity with Central Asia. For that it needs Pakistan.

This year work on Western Europe-Western China International Transport Corridor (WEWCITC) will start. It is a mega project that will link Asia with Europe. The total length of the Corridor will be 8,445 Kilometers. Out of which 2,787-kilometre road will pass through Kazakhstan. The construction of WEWCITC corridor has opened employment opportunities for Indians as the Indian embassy in Kazakhstan has successfully secured jobs for hundreds of Indian engineers, specialists, builders and workers, who will be working on this project. India hopes that, once completed, the WEWCITC will enable India to reach Eurasian markets.

In the meantime, Indian businesses are entering Central Asian markets. Several Indian drug manufactures have begun making products. According to Ashok Sajjanhar, the Indian Ambassador to Kazakhstan, India will be doing business with Kazakhstan’s national nuclear energy company KazAtomProm, and India’s Punjab Bank has acquired a controlling stake in Kazakhstan’s Danabank. Sajjanhar said other Indian businesses want to invest in such sectors of the Kazakhstan economy as agriculture, food production, petrochemicals, information technology, railways and highways.

However, India’s interest in Central Asia is energy driven. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan is a major player in the energy sector. China and India, the two rapidly growing Asian economies, are looking at Kazakhstan as a possible source of their future energy requirements. Kazakhstan’s estimated extractable resources of oil are 7.8 billion tons. Most of Kazakhstan’s reserves are located in the western regions of the country, including the reserves of standard fuel in the Caspian Sea. Experts believe that the Caspian Sea shelf may have much larger oil and gas reserves than previous estimations. That is why the U.S, the EU as well as China and Russia all have stakes in Kazakhstan and they have been competing for influence in Kazakhstan.

If Kazakhstan has oil, its neighbor, Turkmenistan possesses the fifth largest reserves of natural gas in the world. Turkmenistan produces more than 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year. It sells most of its gas to Russia through Russian gas giant Gazprom.
Interestingly, now China has also obtained exploration and production rights in Turkmenistan. By the end of the year, Turkmenistan is expected to be supplying 30 billion cubic meters of gas to China through a new 10,000-kilometre-long gas pipeline.

Turkmenistan also exports about eight billion cubic meters of gas per year to Iran and has recently signed an agreement to increase exports to 14 billion cubic meters.

India and Pakistan also want to tap into Turkmen gas through a proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline but this project has been delayed several times due to diplomatic rows and political instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. An alternate to the TAPI project for India is to import gas from Turkmenistan via Iran instead of Afghanistan. But India’s new warm and friendly relations with the United States can be an obstacle in New Delhi’s search for energy, especially from Iran.

Smooth access to cheaper energy sources of Central Asia is a must for India, but in doing so India has to build bridges with its neighbors. India cannot import oil or gas from Central Asia without transit facilities through China or Pakistan.

Resource-rich Central Asian countries possess vast areas but are thinly populated while neighboring China has a huge population exploding its borders. Migration from China to Central Asia is an issue in some Central Asian countries. Economic and political relations between India and Central Asian countries can balance the growing Chinese influence in the region. Nevertheless, India cannot enter Central Asian markets without land transport connectivity through China. Any future roads or energy pipelines from Russia and Central Asia to India are not possible without transiting through Western China. India is hoping to find ways where it can be connected to the web of land transport grids that have already been developed between China and Central Asia. Such grids connect various countries of the region.

One land route that can connect India with Central Asia through China is slightly less than 3000 kilometers. It can link Kazakhstan’s city of Almaty to India via the Lepu-lekh Pass in Uttarakhand in India. But harsh weather conditions and difficult terrain up in the Lepu-lekh region make it a difficult choice.

Another short route from Central Asia to India can be through Ladakh in Jammu & Kashmir but it is unlikely to work on this route due to the political situation in Kashmir and territorial and diplomatic disputes over the Kashmir region.

In comparison to the above routes, a passage to India via the Khyber Pass could be cheaper and it makes sense because for centuries Central Asian traders and invaders had used the Khyber Pass to reach India.

Central Asia has been a source of war and destruction for the people of the Indian Sub-Continent. During the last 1,000 years, India was invaded and was subject to the loot and plunder of Central Asian worriers. But the 21st century offers different opportunities to forget painful memories and heal the past wounds.

Opening of trade routes and energy transport between Central Asia and South Asia through Afghanistan and Iran can bring an economic revolution in the lives of millions in Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and India. The region needs peace and the growth of trade and business can be a path to peace and prosperity. Mutual trade may create a win-win situation for all the parties—Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India and the Central Asian countries– in terms of economic and social development.

For the last 30 years, Afghanistan and Pakistan have turned into war zones. If land trade and energy routes between South and Central Asia open, Afghanistan and Pakistan will make considerable revenues from transit fees. Construction and developmental work on and along the transport infrastructures will create employment opportunities for hundreds and thousands of people. New cross-country businesses will flourish. Such opportunities and possibilities may offer a second chance to war-hit people of the region. Iran which has been cornered by the West can feel strong again. These a development can eliminate dependence on Western aid and can reduce poverty. Consequently, the whole region can be self-sufficient and thus more independent. It will be a new beginning for the people South and Central Asian.

Shiraz Paracha is an international journalist. His email address is: shiraz_paracha@hotmail.com

Latest Bush Texas Oil Co. Makes a Move On Turkmenistan

[SEE:	Bush Proffers a Probing Tentacle to Turkmenistan ]
Members of the Bush family have become frequent in Turkmenistan
The President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov received the heads of the company «TX Oil Ltd» (Texas) – President Neil Mallon Bush and members of its Board of Directors Mark Allen Bush, a REGNUM correspondent reports News.
The press office of the Turkmen state, the head of «TX Oil Ltd» Turkmen leader gave warm words of welcome on behalf of his father and brother in the past – the presidents of the United States, George HW Bush and George W. Bushaddressed Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov their most best wishes. “During the meeting, vylivsheysya in extensive exchange of views on the prospects of partnership, the guests have confirmed their interest led the company to consolidate its position in Turkmenistan. Noting the crucial perspective of the Turkmen market, due to both the enormous hydrocarbon resources, and conditions created for foreign business, Neil Mallon Bush and Marcus Allen Bush declared the readiness »TX Oil Ltd«, specializing in the energy sector, to take an active part in joint projects. In particular, the head of the U.S. company said that in future they are planning to bring here the major experts and the most advanced technologies in order to develop and explore oil and gas resources of Turkmenistan “, – the press service of the Turkmen president. It is also reported that President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, in turn, emphasized that the Turkmen side is always ready to consider and examine in detail all incoming proposals in this regard. As REGNUM reported earlier news, this is the second of this year’s meeting between President of Turkmenistan with representatives of the American company. The first meeting was held in February 2010, during which the Turkmen president told the guests with the main priorities implemented in Turkmenistan’s energy strategy aimed at fundamental modernization of oil and gas industry and the diversification of routes for Turkmen energy resources to world markets. At the same time Neil Mallon Bush presented Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov a written message from former U.S. president George HW Bush. Regnum

The truth will out-–except, perhaps, in the US

Human rights laws and greater transparency have improved administration of justice internationally – but not yet under the Obama administration

• 
• • Rupert Skilbeck
  • guardian.co.uk

Amnesty International stages a demonstration to voice concerns about the detention of terror suspects and US rendition practices. Photograph: PACourts around the world are being asked to uphold society’s right to the truth about human rights violations and to hold public inquiries. The “Don’t Look Back” policy of the Obama administration fails to do the same for victims of rendition.

In 1972, a small guerrilla movement of students and workers emerged from the Araguaia River region in Brazil, seeking to foment a popular uprising to overthrow the military dictatorship that had been in power since 1964. Over the next two years the Brazilian army brutally suppressed the movement, arresting and torturing members. More than 60 disappeared, their fate still unknown.

With the restoration of democracy in 1982, legal proceedings were brought by the families of the disappeared who sought the truth about what happened to their sons, brothers and fathers, where they were buried, as well as an official recognition of their deaths. But the claims ran foul of Brazil’s 1979 amnesty laws which prohibit any legal action over torture and killings by the military dictatorship. On 30 April this year, the country’s supreme court upheld the amnesty, finding that the actions of the military regime were political in nature and therefore covered by the law.

Three weeks later, the question of the legitimacy of the amnesty was heard by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights in Costa Rica in a different case brought by the family of one of the guerrillas. The family argued that the amnesty laws violated their right to information, their right to justice, and their right to the truth, all of which are elements of personal integrity protected by article 5 of the American convention on human rights.

At the Open Society Justice Initiative, we have filed an amicus curiaebrief which argued that there is a legally enforceable right to the truth for both the victims of human rights violations and for society as a whole. Judicial decisions and soft law standards have confirmed that the right is a broad one, sufficient to allow the public to know about the underlying conditions that led to past abuses which should ensure that such conditions do not reoccur.

The long-awaited publication of the Saville report into Bloody Sunday in Northern Ireland is an example of a very public truth-telling exercise. The unequivocal findings of the report were welcomed by the families of the victims as a vindication of their campaign for the truth, demonstrating the importance of that right even 38 years later. In his statement to the House of Commons, David Cameron quoted the family member of a victim who said “the truth coming out can help set people free.” In a different context, William Hague’s swift decision – as the new foreign secretary – to order a full public inquiry into allegations of involvement in torture by the previous government has been welcomed by the Council of Europe as a “proper response” that might be an example to other countries.

These efforts to expose the truth stand in stark contrast to the “Don’t Look Back” policy of Barack Obama, who has made clear that there will be no accountability for human rights violations that occurred under the Bush administration. This week, the US supreme court declined to review the government claim of “state secrets” in the case of Mohamed Arar, the Canadian who was seized at JFK airport in New York on the basis of incorrect information provided by Canada’s mounted police and then rendered to Syria for torture. In the absence of any US prosecutions, it appears that the Canadian mounted force is now mounting an investigation into crimes committed allegedly by US agents.

Also this week, the Justice Initiative announced the filing of a case against Macedonia to the European court of human rights for collusion in the CIA rendition of a German citizen, Khaled El-Masri, to Afghanistan, where he was held for four months in terrible conditions. The Strasbourg-based court is being asked to give an opinion on whether the behaviour of the CIA rendition team at Skopje airport amounted to torture, and whether by knowingly assisting in sending him to Afghanistan, Macedonia is responsible for what happened next. Legal proceedings in the US also fell victim to the “state secrets” doctrine, and now Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, seems to be maintaining the position of her predecessor, Condoleezza Rice, in refusing even to acknowledge in public that the operation occurred.

The story of the secret rendition programme is sufficiently compelling to prevent it from being forgotten – and the full details will eventually be revealed. But given the attitude of the Obama administration, it seems that justice for the victims will not come from a public inquiry in the US, but from the dogged persistence of foreign investigators, lawyers, prosecutors, and judges who are determined to find the truth.

Rupert Skilbeck is a barrister and litigation director for the Open Society Justice Initiative in New York

U.S. Naval Movements Unrelated to Iran’s Purported Gaza Stunt

Fabrizio Bensch / AFP-Getty Images

The USS Harry S. Truman at an undisclosed location in the Mediterranean Sea earlier this month.

U.S. and European defense and national-security officials say that the movement of a U.S. Navy aircraft-carrier group into the Red Sea through the Suez Canal is unrelated to an alleged attempt by Iran to send one or more ships carrying humanitarian aid to challenge Israel’s blockade of Gaza.

Middle Eastern Web sites and news organizations, including several Israeli media outlets, over the last several days have published increasingly alarming stories about the fact that more than 12 U.S. warships over the last several days had sailed from the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea. Israeli reports, such as this one from the newspaper Haaretz said that at least one Israeli ship had also passed through the canal in the same direction. The U.K.-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported that thousands of Egyptian troops had been deployed along the canal to protect the ships’ as they passed through.

The U.S. naval movement through the canal, described by Al-Quds as one of the largest American flotillas to have passed through the canal in years, quickly provoked feverish speculation on both Israeli Web sites and some left-wing American sites that the deployment was somehow related to reports last week in semi-official Iranian media that Iran’s theocratic rulers were sending one or more ships containing humanitarian aid in the direction of Gaza, presumably to challenge the long-running blockade—which Israel in the last few days announced it was loosening.
As we reported last week, however, U.S. and European officials were relatively relaxed about the alleged Iranian blockade-running threat. The officials noted that Iran’s ability to project naval power is limited and that Egyptian authorities might well delay the passage of any Gaza-bound Iranian vessel through the Suez Canal with inspections and red tape, even if it was absolutely clear that no weapons were on board.

Obama administration and European officials suggest that fears of a  possible looming naval confrontation between the large American fleet and any Iranian boat headed for Gaza are greatly exaggerated. On Monday, the Pentagon distributed an announcement by the U.S. naval command covering the region confirming that a carrier strike group, headed by the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman, had successfully transited the Suez Canal on June 18. But the announcement characterized the naval movement as normal. It said that the carrier group was “relieving the Dwight D. Eisenhower [carrier group] as part of a routine rotation of forces during a scheduled deployment” in support of various ongoing American and allied military operations in the region.

“The U.S. Navy operates in waters all around the world,” a Pentagon spokesman, Bryan Whitman, told Declassified. “Their presence provides security and stability.” Other U.S. and European officials, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, said their understanding was that there was no connection between the timing of the carrier group’s passage through Suez and the alleged Iranian threat to challenge Israel’s Gaza blockade.

The whole purported Iranian threat to try to run the Gaza blockade—and some of the more overheated media reporting, particularly from the Israeli press—ultimately may turn out to be an Internet-driven soufflé of speculation. The latest word from one of the Israeli Web sites that posted one of the more alarming reports about a possible U.S.-Iran confrontation on the high seas is that Iran is now backing away, or at least delaying, the departure of any aid ships for Gaza.

Judge who nixed drilling ban has oil investments

Judge who nixed drilling ban has oil investments

By CURT ANDERSON and MICHAEL KUNZELMAN (AP) – 1 hour ago

NEW ORLEANS — The Louisiana judge who struck down the Obama administration’s six-month ban on deepwater oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico has reported extensive investments in the oil and gas industry, according to financial disclosure reports. He’s also a new member of a secret national security court.

U.S. District Judge Martin Feldman, a 1983 appointee of President Ronald Reagan, reported owning less than $15,000 in stock in 2008 in Transocean Ltd., the company that owned the sunken Deepwater Horizon drilling rig.

Feldman overturned the ban Tuesday, saying the government simply assumed that because one rig exploded, the others pose an imminent danger, too.

The White House promised an immediate appeal. The Interior Department had imposed the moratorium last month in the wake of the BP disaster, halting approval of any new permits for deepwater projects and suspending drilling on 33 exploratory wells.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said in a statement late Tuesday that within the next few days he would issue a new order imposing a moratorium that eliminates any doubt it is needed and appropriate.

Several companies that ferry people and supplies and provide other services to offshore rigs argued that the moratorium was arbitrarily imposed after the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers and blew out a well 5,000 feet underwater. It has spewed anywhere from 67 million to 127 million gallons of oil.

Feldman’s 2008 financial disclosure report — the most recent available — also showed investments in Ocean Energy, a Houston-based company, as well as Quicksilver Resources, Prospect Energy, Peabody Energy, Halliburton, Pengrowth Energy Trust, Atlas Energy Resources, Parker Drilling and others. Halliburton was also involved in the doomed Deepwater Horizon project.

Feldman did not respond to requests for comment and to clarify whether he still holds some or all of these investments.

He’s one of many federal judges across the Gulf Coast region with money in oil and gas. Several have disqualified themselves from hearing spill-related lawsuits and others have sold their holdings so they can preside over some of the 200-plus cases.

Although Feldman ruled in favor of oil interests Tuesday, one expert said his reasoning appeared sound because the six-month ban was overly broad.

“There’s been some concern that he is biased toward the industry, but I don’t see it in this opinion,” said Tim Howard, a Northeastern University law professor who also represents businesses and people claiming economic losses in several spill-related lawsuits. “They overreacted and just shut an industry down, rather than focusing on where the problems are.”

That was what Feldman essentially said in his ruling, writing that the blanket moratorium “seems to assume that because one rig failed and although no one yet fully knows why, all companies and rigs drilling new wells over 500 feet also universally present an imminent danger.”

Josh Reichert, managing director of the Pew Environment Group, said the ruling should be rescinded if Feldman still has investments in companies that could benefit.

“If Judge Feldman has any investments in oil and gas operators in the Gulf, it represents a flagrant conflict of interest,” Reichert said.

Feldman’s ruling prohibits federal officials from enforcing the moratorium until a trial is held. He wrote: “If some drilling equipment parts are flawed, is it rational to say all are? Are all airplanes a danger because one was? All oil tankers like Exxon Valdez? All trains? All mines? That sort of thinking seems heavy-handed, and rather overbearing.”

At least two major oil companies, Shell and Marathon, said they would wait to see how the appeals play out before resuming drilling.

The lawsuit was filed by Hornbeck Offshore Services of Covington, La. CEO Todd Hornbeck said after the ruling that he is looking forward to getting back to work. “It’s the right thing for not only the industry but the country,” he said.

Earlier in the day, executives at a major oil conference in London warned that the moratorium would cripple world energy supplies. Steven Newman, president and CEO of Transocean, called it unnecessary and an overreaction.

“There are things the administration could implement today that would allow the industry to go back to work tomorrow without an arbitrary six-month time limit,” Newman said.

BP stock dropped 81 cents Tuesday, or 2.7 percent, to $29.52, near a 14-year low for the company in U.S. trading. The stocks of other companies associated with the spill remained low despite Feldman’s ruling.

Feldman is a native of St. Louis and former Army captain in the Judge Advocate General Corps who was appointed in May to a seven-year term on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, according to court records.

The court meets secretly to consider government requests for wiretaps in national security cases, such as those involving foreign terrorist groups.

A graduate of Tulane University in New Orleans with bachelor’s and law degrees, Feldman frequently jokes with lawyers before his court about his friendship with Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, known for his strict interpretation of the Constitution as written more than 200 years ago.

Feldman has handled several cases stemming from Hurricane Katrina, among them a lawsuit against the city of New Orleans filed by a retired teacher who sued over his beating by police officers in the French Quarter. The case was settled. Feldman also presided over the first trial in a wave of insurance litigation spawned by the storm.

In August, he will sentence Wayne Read, a former movie studio CEO who pleaded guilty to selling $1.9 million in nonexistent state film tax credits to current and former members of the New Orleans Saints, including head coach Sean Payton and Super Bowl MVP quarterback Drew Brees.

Anderson reported from Miami.

Pakistani PM ignores US warning on Iran gas deal

ISLAMABAD – The Associated Press

Defying a warning from Washington, Pakistan’s prime minister promised to go ahead with a plan to import natural gas from Iran, even if the U.S. levies additional sanctions against the Mideast country.

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s comments Tuesday came two days after the U.S. special envoy to Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, cautioned Pakistan not to “over commit” itself to the deal because it could run afoul of new sanctions against Iran being finalized by Congress.

The deal has been a constant source of tension between the two countries, with Pakistan arguing it is vital to its ability to cope with an energy crisis, and the U.S. stressing it would undercut international pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.

Gilani said Pakistan would reconsider the deal if it violated U.N. sanctions, but the country was “not bound to follow” unilateral U.S. measures. He said media reports that quoted him as saying Pakistan would heed Holbrooke’s warning were incorrect.

The U.N. has levied four sets of sanctions against Iran for failing to suspend uranium enrichment, a process that can produce fuel for a nuclear weapon. The latest set of U.N. sanctions was approved earlier this month.

New pipeline

The U.S. has also applied a number of unilateral sanctions against Iran, and Congress is finalizing a new set largely aimed at the country’s petroleum industry. Both houses have passed versions of the sanctions and are working to reconcile their differences.

Pakistan and Iran finalized the gas deal earlier this month. Under the contract, Iran will export 21.5 million cubic meters of gas per day to Pakistan through a new pipeline beginning in 2014. The construction of the pipeline is estimated to cost some $7 billion.

While U.S. officials have expressed opposition to the deal, Washington acknowledges that Pakistan faces a severe energy crisis and has made aid to the energy sector one if its top development priorities. Electricity shortages in Pakistan cause rolling blackouts that affect businesses and intensify suffering during the hot summer months.

U.S. opposition to the gas deal has also been tempered by Washington’s reliance on Pakistani cooperation to fight al-Qaeda and Taliban militants staging attacks against NATO troops in Afghanistan.

The Pakistani military is also engaged in fierce battles with Taliban fighters along the Afghan border who have declared war against the state.

Pakistani troops backed by fighter jets killed 43 militants and wounded two dozen others in the Orakzai tribal region Tuesday, said Jahanzeb Khan, the deputy political administrator in the area.

Four soldiers were killed in the fighting and 18 others were wounded, said Khan.

Balochistan Government Wants Full Control Over Gwadar Port

Balochistan Wants Full Control Over Gwadar Port

The Baloch Hal News

QUETTA: The government of Balochistan (GoB) is planning to buy all the share of Gwadar Port in order to secure full control of this strategic port.

It was disclosed by the Provincial Finance Minister Mir Asim Kurd during the post-budget briefing at the Civil Secretariat on Tuesday afternoon.

The Minister said that the government would buy the shares of the Singapore Port Authority and the National Logistics Cell (NLC) asking the federal government to help Balochistan in taking full control over Gwadar Deep Sea Port.

Mr. Kurd said that the government had allocated Rs 12 billion making investment in Saindak, Reko Dik and also buying significant number of share of OGDCL so that control these profitable commercial organizations.

He said government has established Balochistan Investment Board for attracting foreign investors in this backward province of Balochistan. He said the Chief Minister himself would be the chairman of the Board and highly professional people will be inducted in the BIB. “Rs one billion had been allocated for Metal Mining Industry for building a refinery for separating gold from Copper and other metals. He thought that the Provincial Government could earn as much as Rs 45 Billion annually in few years from this projects once they are fully functional. It may be pointed out that the Provincial Government has decided to take over both the Saindak project and Reko Dik and merged both the giant metal mining units changing the future of Balochistan.

At present, the Minister said that the blister copper is being taken to China where it is refined and the Government of Balochistan is unaware how much gold produced from Saindak. He was of the view that by establishing a refinery at the metal mining site—both Reko Dik and Saindak copper and gold project—the Government would provide jobs to a hundreds of more people.

The Minister said that it was the biggest achievement of the Government in getting the best NFC Award providing a huge sum of resources to this backward province. Earlier, Balochistan was denied its legitimate share from the divisible pool and also the right and correct price of its natural gas.

When a senior journalist pointed asked that the Budget had a block allocation of resources for unspcified purposes, the Minister drawn a blank advising the newsmen to put this question to the Minister for Planning and Development on Wednesday when he would hold his post budget briefing.

In regard to job opportunities, Mr. Asim Kurd said that all those 38,000 applicants would get jobs in due course of time. “It was a wrong impression that only 5000 applicants would be given jobs and others would be discarded or denied job. It is our responsible to provide jobs to all the educated youth,” The Minister told a questioner. He said the Provincial Government, with the cooperation of Federal Government, will make efforts to provide jobs to 20,000 people during next financial year.

On a question, he said Rs 30 million had been allocated for each MPA for their respective development programme, much higher than the other provinces. He said it was Rs 40 million during the current fiscal year and it was slashed by Rs 10 million for the next fiscal year.

Holding the previous federal government responsible for deteriorating law and order situation in Balochistan, the Minister said around Rs six billion were spent during the current fiscal year and Rs 12 billion had been allocated for the next financial year. He did not respond to a quip from a senior journalist that the Minister perceived a surge in violence during the next fiscal year.

In regard to rampant corruption, the Minister said that the Chief Minister had launched a war against corrupt practices and he is expected to win the war by substantially reducing corruption. He said that the Chief Minister is a very honest man and he hates corrupt and corrupt practices in his administration.

The Minister said that great emphasis was given to promotion of education and beefing health care facilities in all the districts of Balochistan making specific allocation for each and every district disallowing the more powerful to eat up the share of more backward districts within Balochistan.

He said that the Provincial Government had taken over all the educational institutions from the District and local Government and that is why the number of employees in the Education Department had jumped from 8176 to over 59,000. The allocation of funds also increased up to Rs 17 billion, the Finance Minister told the newsmen.

With the abolition of District Government system, the Balochistan Government had taken over all the schools, dispensaries and other departments and directly looking them after. For this specific reason, the Chief Minister once told newsmen the other day that “ It is my sweat will when to hold the Local Bodies elections in Balochistan.”

Richard Armitage–PKK “Not Sub-Contractor”

‘Dialogue between Turkey, US should continue’

Richard Armitage

The chairman of American-Turkish Council (ATC) said on Tuesday that Turkey and the United States continued cooperation in the area of intelligence.

ATC Chairman Richard Armitage held a press conference at Hilton Hotel in the Turkish capital of Ankara.

Armitage offered his condolences to relatives of those who were killed in terrorist attacks in Turkey in the recent period and those who were killed on board Mavi Marmara aid ship bound for Gaza.

Replying to a question on Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statement that terrorist organization acted as a sub-contractor, Armitage said he did not consider that PKK was a sub-contractor.

Armitage said as US Ambassador James Jeffrey said, cooperation between Turkey and the United States has been continuing in intelligence.

Turkey and the United States had sound relations in several issues like Afghanistan and Iraq as well as many areas, he said.

Israel’s attack on aid flotilla for Gaza was a mistake, he said.

Armitage said the dialogue between Turkey and the United States should continue.

ATC chairman said he would hold talks with Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, officials from the ministries of foreign affairs and national defense during his visit to Turkey.

TurkishNY

The Baloch Strategy–Driving Protests By Destroying Power Transmission Towers

Massive protest across Balochistan against load-shedding

The Baloch Hal News

KHUZDAR: People took to the streets against the prolonged load shedding in Khuzdar district and also blocked the RCD (Regional Cooperation Development) Highway for traffic for several hours on Tuesday.

According to locals, Quetta Electriicty Supply Company (QESCO) is carrying out 20 hours long load shedding in Khuzdar district for the past one week which has severely disturbed the routine life.

The students took to the streets and marched various places to register their protest against the power outage. Enraged protesters set tyres on fire on RCD highway disrupting the vehicular traffic between Quetta to Karachi section.

Police squad rushed to the site after being informed about the QESCO efforts to end load shedding, the people dispersed peacefully. The strike was also observed in Mastung and Kalat where citizens and growers strongly criticized the government for load shedding.

Earlier, growers staged a sit-in in Khuzdar, Nal, Kharan, Mastung, Kalat and Zehri area registering their protest against the power cut.

They claimed that QESCO has been carrying out load shedding since the beginning of summer season, “It seems that it was deliberate load shedding because of which standing crops had been destroyed,” they said. The Zamindar Action Committee Balochistan decided to ‘court arrest’ movement against load shedding. A large number of growers offered their arrest in various police stations condemning the unscheduled load shedding and registering protest.

The strike was observed in Chaman town where growers blocked the Quetta-to-Chaman national highway for past two days. The protestors called off their strike after the assurance of Provincial Ministers Zamruk Khan, Maulana Bari Agha and Matiullah Agha. The law makers ensured that the QESCO would restore supply for 10 hours every day.

It may be mentioned that around 10 power transmission lines were brought down in Chattar area of Nasirabad district after which QESCO announced new schedule of load shedding. According to which 8 to 10 hours load shedding is being carried out in provincial capital and 18 to 20 hours load shedding in rural areas. According to QESCO officials, unidentified persons untied the nut bolts of 10 electric pylons.