Sending Kazakh soldiers in Afghanistan (such an intention was announced last week), Astana, and it is quite obvious lose the status of the capital, located in the side of the key political trends. Practically, this means: Kazakhstan is the fourth – after Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – Central Asian republics, which assumes the risk associated with a gradual U.S. withdrawal from the region. And another state, whose citizens will need to take more care to the forgotten bag in places with large concentrations of people.
Becoming hostage to American foreign policy, Kazakhstan, engaged in a game that you can not control. It is obvious – to ensure internal security, in particular, controlling and directing migration flows, the republic’s authorities are able only when the total absence of well-organized terrorist groups inside the country. In fact, until now the special services of Kazakhstan have been concerned only with issues against domestic extremism. No reports of timely diagnosis and eliminate the threat of real terrorism in the information field of the republic there. More than convinced: this is due to complete lack of serious terrorist forces in the territory of Kazakhstan.
Afghanistan can completely change the situation. After entering the Kazakh military personnel – more obvious target than, in fact, Kazakhstan, to terrorists in Central Asia simply will not. The country hosting the summit of the OSCE, collaborating with Western states, and now – actually the only republic in the region, which tries to look in the eyes of an informed public safe and stable state. Until now, this is quite able to do small forces – natural protection in this sense was the geographical location of the country. Kazakhstan is covered with a kind of cordon sanitaire, consisting of the states bordering Afghanistan. Good protection in a “peaceful” time, it is unlikely he will be a serious obstacle to radical forces, if they decides to answer the country for her too multidirectional foreign policy.
However, it should be noted: the highest echelons of power – has long lived in another Kazakhstan. In another reality, where the republic is simply no poorer neighbors, exporting to the territory of cheap labor. For this country there is no radical groups and civil, in fact, the war in nearby Tajikistan. On the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan officials of Kazakhstan’s thinking when in the information field of the country slipping infrequent reports of liquidation in the south of another sect, who was distributing extremist ideas, and flyers. Here do not know anything about the closed family system west of the country – and, accordingly, deny even the existence of an excellent growth medium for various microorganisms radical clerics. On the total corruption of the final oskotinivshihsya the majority of officials in all the departments of Kazakhstan: from the village registry offices, ending with the presidential administration – are remembered only during the anti-corruption pyatiminutok when the next victim of the system by chance throws in a dense system of bureaucrats.
Perhaps this is why politicians in Kazakhstan sure: the republic has long been a significant political player in global scale, rather than the usual third-world monarchy, the actual resource base for a truly global players. Otherwise – what with such a zeal worthy of better application, members of the government and most importantly – President Nursultan Nazarbayev has sought the OSCE summit in Astana? Because until now there is no understanding of – what we can offer the world except nabivshey nauseam interethnic tolerance, in the fact of the existence of which, incidentally, has no merit acting power? Complete lack of understanding – what to do with fallen down on the head of large scale events, incidentally, confirmed on the eve of the Foreign Ministry of the country. But officials of Kazakhstan, seems to have other priorities. They want a picture of U.S. presidents and Kazakhstan on the background of the Ak Orda. And more and more obvious it becomes: the only people who are totally divorced from reality, could such a wild visit to press Obama for a summit of OSCE. To solve this problem, tell thrown considerable strength, having the right to exhibit in exchange for this concession of any material profit, administered by the Kazakh government.
Partly for this reason, any foreign policy initiatives of Kazakhstan – since frankly stupid vain attempts to solve the frozen conflicts in the CIS space, and ending with obscure idea – to become as chairman of the Organization of Islamic Conference – the leader of the Turkic world – personally, I have been only the fear and frustration.Let’s be honest: the authorities do not know how to interact with their own neighbors are not too difficult to water and energy issues, but trying, nonetheless, to play in global politics – hardly in a position to adequately assess their own capabilities. This was evident from the apparent confusion at the time of the Andijan events. It finally became clear when blown up Osh – and the chairman of the OSCE, which gave annoying advice in Transnistria and Nagorno Karabakh – unable to squeeze out of yourself even anything like a coherent position. Yes, God is with her foreign policy. Can the authorities say at least something about the flow of heroin, which is sent including through Kazakhstan to Russia? Controls whether Kazakhstan’s own borders? What kind of policy toward Afghanistan in general can we talk?
However, there is little hope that related to the U.S. withdrawal from the region would bypass the problem is too ambitious for no apparent reason, the Republic. Now, as is clear from official statements, speeches about sending a full-fledged military contingent from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan until it goes. Rather, the OSCE chairman, said of the initiative more to seed, to demonstrate their loyalty to the coalition forces. And so – to work for the benefit of NATO forces in the coalition HQ go on the strength of five or six English-speaking officers. It’s very small – and a total of almost a safe number of people whose presence may not be noticed. However, even here has a zakavyka. Judging by the silence usually talkative officials from the Ministry of Defence, the structures close to the presidential administration and other parts of the power vertical, bargaining with the administration of U.S. President goes so far. After a final and definitive “no” about his visit to Astana, both in private conversation, noticed colleagues who are familiar with presidential protocol, Barack Obama did not say so.
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