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Clinton-Approved Iranian Arms Transfers Help Turn Bosnia into Militant Islamic Base

“‘There is no question that the policy of getting arms into Bosnia was of great assistance in allowing the Iranians to dig in and create good relations with the Bosnian government,’ a senior CIA officer told Congress in a classified deposition. ‘And it is a thing we will live to regret because when they blow up some Americans, as they no doubt will before this . . . thing is over, it will be in part because the Iranians were able to have the time and contacts to establish themselves well in Bosnia.’” ["Iran Gave Bosnia Leader $500,000, CIA Alleges: Classified Report Says Izetbegovic Has Been 'Co-Opted,' Contradicting U.S. Public Assertion of Rift," Los Angeles Times, 12/31/96. Ellipses in original. Alija Izetbegovic is the Muslim president of Bosnia.]

“‘If you read President Izetbegovic’s writings, as I have, there is no doubt that he is an Islamic fundamentalist,’ said a senior Western diplomat with long experience in the region. ‘He is a very nice fundamentalist, but he is still a fundamentalist. This has not changed. His goal is to establish a Muslim state in Bosnia, and the Serbs and Croats understand this better than the rest of us.’” ["Bosnian Leader Hails Islam at Election Rallies," New York Times, 9/2/96]

Introduction and Summary

In late 1995, President Bill Clinton dispatched some 20,000 U.S. troops to Bosnia-Hercegovina as part of a NATO-led “implementation force” (IFOR) to ensure that the warring Muslim, Serbian, and Croatian factions complied with provisions of the Dayton peace plan. [NOTE: This paper assumes the reader is acquainted with the basic facts of the Bosnian war leading to the IFOR deployment. For background, see RPC's "Clinton Administration Ready to Send U.S. Troops to Bosnia, "9/28/95," and Legislative Notice No. 60, "Senate to Consider Several Resolutions on Bosnia," 12/12/95] Through statements by Administration spokesmen, notably Defense Secretary Perry and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Shalikashvili, the president firmly assured Congress and the American people that U.S. personnel would be out of Bosnia at the end of one year. Predictably, as soon as the November 1996 election was safely behind him, President Clinton announced that approximately 8,500 U.S. troops would be remaining for another 18 months as part of a restructured and scaled down contingent, the “stabilization force” (SFOR), officially established on December 20, 1996.

SFOR begins its mission in Bosnia under a serious cloud both as to the nature of its mission and the dangers it will face. While IFOR had successfully accomplished its basic military task — separating the factions’ armed forces — there has been very little progress toward other stated goals of the Dayton agreement, including political and economic reintegration of Bosnia, return of refugees to their homes, and apprehension and prosecution of accused war criminals. It is far from certain that the cease-fire that has held through the past year will continue for much longer, in light of such unresolved issues as the status of the cities of Brcko (claimed by Muslims but held by the Serbs) and Mostar (divided between nominal Muslim and Croat allies, both of which are currently being armed by the Clinton Administration). Moreover, at a strength approximately one-third that of its predecessor, SFOR may not be in as strong a position to deter attacks by one or another of the Bosnian factions or to avoid attempts to involve it in renewed fighting: “IFOR forces, despite having suffered few casualties, have been vulnerable to attacks from all of the contending sides over the year of the Dayton mandate. As a second mandate [i.e., SFOR] evolves, presumably maintaining a smaller force on the ground, the deterrent effect which has existed may well become less compelling and vulnerabilities of the troops will increase.” ["Military Security in Bosnia-Herzegovina: Present and Future," Bulletin of the Atlantic Council of the United States, 12/18/96]

The Iranian Connection

Perhaps most threatening to the SFOR mission — and more importantly, to the safety of the American personnel serving in Bosnia — is the unwillingness of the Clinton Administration to come clean with the Congress and with the American people about its complicity in the delivery of weapons from Iran to the Muslim government in Sarajevo. That policy, personally approved by Bill Clinton in April 1994 at the urging of CIA Director-designate (and then-NSC chief) Anthony Lake and the U.S. ambassador to Croatia Peter Galbraith, has, according to the Los Angeles Times (citing classified intelligence community sources), “played a central role in the dramatic increase in Iranian influence in Bosnia.” Further, according to the Times, in September 1996 National Security Agency analysts contradicted Clinton Administration claims of declining Iranian influence, insisting instead that “Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel remain active throughout Bosnia.” Likewise, “CIA analysts noted that the Iranian presence was expanding last fall,” with some ostensible cultural and humanitarian activities “known to be fronts” for the Revolutionary Guard and Iran’s intelligence service, known as VEVAK, the Islamic revolutionary successor to the Shah’s SAVAK. [LAT, 12/31/96] At a time when there is evidence of increased willingness by pro-Iranian Islamic militants to target American assets abroad — as illustrated by the June 1996 car-bombing at the Khobar Towers in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, that killed 19 American airmen, in which the Iranian government or pro-Iranian terrorist organizations are suspected ["U.S. Focuses Bomb Probe on Iran, Saudi Dissident," Chicago Tribune, 11/4/96] — it is irresponsible in the extreme for the Clinton Administration to gloss over the extent to which its policies have put American personnel in an increasingly vulnerable position while performing an increasingly questionable mission.

Three Key Issues for Examination

This paper will examine the Clinton policy of giving the green light to Iranian arms shipments to the Bosnian Muslims, with serious implications for the safety of U.S. troops deployed there. (In addition, RPC will release a general analysis of the SFOR mission and the Clinton Administration’s request for supplemental appropriations to fund it in the near future.) Specifically, the balance of this paper will examine in detail the three issues summarized below:

1. The Clinton Green Light to Iranian Arms Shipments (page 3): In April 1994, President Clinton gave the government of Croatia what has been described by Congressional committees as a “green light” for shipments of weapons from Iran and other Muslim countries to the Muslim-led government of Bosnia. The policy was approved at the urging of NSC chief Anthony Lake and the U.S. ambassador to Croatia Peter Galbraith. The CIA and the Departments of State and Defense were kept in the dark until after the decision was made.

2. The Militant Islamic Network (page 5): Along with the weapons, Iranian Revolutionary Guards and VEVAK intelligence operatives entered Bosnia in large numbers, along with thousands of mujahedin (“holy warriors”) from across the Muslim world. Also engaged in the effort were several other Muslim countries (including Brunei, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Turkey) and a number of radical Muslim organizations. For example, the role of one Sudan-based “humanitarian organization,” called the Third World Relief Agency, has been well-documented. The Clinton Administration’s “hands-on” involvement with the Islamic network’s arms pipeline included inspections of missiles from Iran by U.S. government officials.

3. The Radical Islamic Character of the Sarajevo Regime (page 8): Underlying the Clinton Administration’s misguided green light policy is a complete misreading of its main beneficiary, the Bosnian Muslim government of Alija Izetbegovic. Rather than being the tolerant, multiethnic democratic government it pretends to be, there is clear evidence that the ruling circle of Izetbegovic’s party, the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), has long been guided by the principles of radical Islam. This Islamist orientation is illustrated by profiles of three important officials, including President Izetbegovic himself; the progressive Islamization of the Bosnian army, including creation of native Bosnian mujahedin units; credible claims that major atrocities against civilians in Sarajevo were staged for propaganda purposes by operatives of the Izetbegovic government; and suppression of enemies, both non-Muslim and Muslim.

The Clinton Green Light to Iranian Arms Shipments

Both the Senate Intelligence Committee and the House Select Subcommittee to Investigate the United States Role in Iranian Arms Transfers to Croatia and Bosnia issued reports late last year. (The Senate report, dated November 1996, is unclassified. The House report is classified, with the exception of the final section of conclusions, which was released on October 8, 1996; a declassified version of the full report is expected to be released soon.) The reports, consistent with numerous press accounts, confirm that on April 27, 1994, President Clinton directed Ambassador Galbraith to inform the government of Croatia that he had “no instructions” regarding Croatia’s decision whether or not to permit weapons, primarily from Iran, to be transshipped to Bosnia through Croatia. (The purpose was to facilitate the acquisition of arms by the Muslim-led government in Sarajevo despite the arms embargo imposed on Yugoslavia by the U.N. Security Council.) Clinton Administration officials took that course despite their awareness of the source of the weapons and despite the fact that the Croats (who were themselves divided on whether to permit arms deliveries to the Muslims) would take anything short of a U.S. statement that they should not facilitate the flow of Iranian arms to Bosnia as a “green light.”

The green light policy was decided upon and implemented with unusual secrecy, with the CIA and the Departments of State and Defense only informed after the fact. ["U.S. Had Options to Let Bosnia Get Arms, Avoid Iran," Los Angeles Times, 7/14/96] Among the key conclusions of the House Subcommittee were the following (taken from the unclassified section released on October 8):

“The President and the American people were poorly served by the Administration officials who rushed the green light decision without due deliberation, full information and an adequate consideration of the consequences.” (page 202)

“The Administration’s efforts to keep even senior US officials from seeing its ‘fingerprints’ on the green light policy led to confusion and disarray within the government.” (page 203)

“The Administration repeatedly deceived the American people about its Iranian green light policy.” (page 204)

Clinton, Lake, and Galbraith Responsible

While the final go-ahead for the green light was given by President Clinton — who is ultimately accountable for the results of his decision — two Clinton Administration officials bear particular responsibility: Ambassador Galbraith and then-NSC Director Anthony Lake, against both of whom the House of Representatives has referred criminal charges to the Justice Department. Mr. Lake, who personally presented the proposal to Bill Clinton for approval, “played a central role in preventing the responsible congressional committees from knowing about the Administration’s fateful decision to acquiesce in radical Islamic Iran’s effort to penetrate the European continent through arms shipments and military cooperation with the Bosnian government.” ["'In Lake We Trust'? Confirmation Make-Over Exacerbates Senate Concerns About D.C.I.-Designate's Candor, Reliability," Center for Security Policy, Washington, D.C., 1/8/97] His responsibility for the operation is certain to be a major hurdle in his effort to be confirmed as CIA Director: “The fact that Lake was one of the authors of the duplicitous policy in Bosnia, which is very controversial and which has probably helped strengthen the hand of the Iranians, doesn’t play well,” stated Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Shelby. ["Lake to be asked about donation," Washington Times, 1/2/97]

For his part, Ambassador Galbraith was the key person both in conceiving the policy and in serving as the link between the Clinton Administration and the Croatian government; he also met with Imam Sevko Omerbasic, the top Muslim cleric in Croatia, “who the CIA says was an intermediary for Iran.” ["Fingerprints: Arms to Bosnia, the real story," The New Republic, 10/28/96; see also LAT 12/23/96] As the House Subcommittee concluded (page 206): “There is evidence that Ambassador Galbraith may have engaged in activities that could be characterized as unauthorized covert action.” The Senate Committee (pages 19 and 20 of the report) was unable to agree on the specific legal issue of whether Galbraith’s actions constituted a “covert action” within the definition of section 503(e) of the National Security Act of 1947 (50 U.S.C. Sec. 413(e)), as amended, defined as “an activity or activities . . . to influence political, economic, or military conditions abroad, where it is intended that the role of the United States Government will not be apparent or acknowledged publicly.”

The Militant Islamic Network

The House Subcommittee report also concluded (page 2): “The Administration’s Iranian green light policy gave Iran an unprecedented foothold in Europe and has recklessly endangered American lives and US strategic interests.” Further –

” . . . The Iranian presence and influence [in Bosnia] jumped radically in the months following the green light. Iranian elements infiltrated the Bosnian government and established close ties with the current leadership in Bosnia and the next generation of leaders. Iranian Revolutionary Guards accompanied Iranian weapons into Bosnia and soon were integrated in the Bosnian military structure from top to bottom as well as operating in independent units throughout Bosnia. The Iranian intelligence service [VEVAK] ran wild through the area developing intelligence networks, setting up terrorist support systems, recruiting terrorist ‘sleeper’ agents and agents of influence, and insinuating itself with the Bosnian political leadership to a remarkable degree. The Iranians effectively annexed large portions of the Bosnian security apparatus [known as the Agency for Information and Documentation (AID)] to act as their intelligence and terrorist surrogates. This extended to the point of jointly planning terrorist activities. The Iranian embassy became the largest in Bosnia and its officers were given unparalleled privileges and access at every level of the Bosnian government.” (page 201)

Not Just the Iranians

To understand how the Clinton green light would lead to this degree of Iranian influence, it is necessary to remember that the policy was adopted in the context of extensive and growing radical Islamic activity in Bosnia. That is, the Iranians and other Muslim militants had long been active in Bosnia; the American green light was an important political signal to both Sarajevo and the militants that the United States was unable or unwilling to present an obstacle to those activities — and, to a certain extent, was willing to cooperate with them. In short, the Clinton Administration’s policy of facilitating the delivery of arms to the Bosnian Muslims made it the de facto partner of an ongoing international network of governments and organizations pursuing their own agenda in Bosnia: the promotion of Islamic revolution in Europe. That network involves not only Iran but Brunei, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan (a key ally of Iran), and Turkey, together with front groups supposedly pursuing humanitarian and cultural activities.

For example, one such group about which details have come to light is the Third World Relief Agency (TWRA), a Sudan-based, phoney humanitarian organization which has been a major link in the arms pipeline to Bosnia. ["How Bosnia's Muslims Dodged Arms Embargo: Relief Agency Brokered Aid From Nations, Radical Groups," Washington Post, 9/22/96; see also "Saudis Funded Weapons For Bosnia, Official Says: $300 Million Program Had U.S. 'Stealth Cooperation'," Washington Post, 2/2/96] TWRA is believed to be connected with such fixtures of the Islamic terror network as Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman (the convicted mastermind behind the 1993 World Trade Center bombing) and Osama Binladen, a wealthy Saudi emigre believed to bankroll numerous militant groups. [WP, 9/22/96] (Sheik Rahman, a native of Egypt, is currently in prison in the United States; letter bombs addressed to targets in Washington and London, apparently from Alexandria, Egypt, are believed connected with his case. Binladen was a resident in Khartoum, Sudan, until last year; he is now believed to be in Afghanistan, “where he has issued statements calling for attacks on U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf.” [WP, 9/22/96])

The Clinton Administration’s “Hands-On” Help

The extent to which Clinton Administration officials, notably Ambassador Galbraith, knowingly or negligently, cooperated with the efforts of such front organizations is unclear. For example, according to one intelligence account seen by an unnamed U.S. official in the Balkans, “Galbraith ‘talked with representatives of Muslim countries on payment for arms that would be sent to Bosnia,’ . . . [T]he dollar amount mentioned in the report was $500 million-$800 million. The U.S. official said he also saw subsequent ‘operational reports’ in 1995 on almost weekly arms shipments of automatic weapons, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, anti-armor rockets and TOW missiles.” [TNR, 10/28/96] The United States played a disturbingly “hands-on” role, with, according to the Senate report (page 19), U.S. government personnel twice conducting inspections in Croatia of missiles en route to Bosnia. Further –

“The U.S. decision to send personnel to Croatia to inspect rockets bound for Bosnia is . . . subject to varying interpretations. It may have been simply a straightforward effort to determine whether chemical weapons were being shipped into Bosnia. It was certainly, at least in part, an opportunity to examine a rocket in which the United States had some interest. But it may also have been designed to ensure that Croatia would not shut down the pipeline.” (page 21)

The account in The New Republic points sharply to the latter explanation: “Enraged at Iran’s apparent attempt to slip super weapons past Croat monitors, the Croatian defense minister nonetheless sent the missiles on to Bosnia ‘just as Peter [i.e., Ambassador Galbraith] told us to do,’ sources familiar with the episode said.” [TNR, 10/28/96] In short, the Clinton Administration’s connection with the various players that made up the arms network seems to have been direct and intimate.

The Mujahedin Threat

In addition to (and working closely with) the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and VEVAK intelligence are members of numerous radical groups known for their anti-Western orientation, along with thousands of volunteermujahedin (“holy warriors”) from across the Islamic world. From the beginning of the NATO-led deployment, the Clinton Administration has given insufficient weight to military concerns regarding the mujahedinpresence in Bosnia as well as the danger they pose to American personnel. Many of the fighters are concentrated in the so-called “green triangle” (the color green symbolizes Islam) centered on the town of Zenica in the American IFOR/SFOR zone but are also found throughout the country.

The Clinton Administration has been willing to accept Sarajevo’s transparently false assurances of the departure of the foreign fighters based on the contention that they have married Bosnian women and have acquired Bosnian citizenship — and thus are no longer “foreign”! — or, having left overt military units to join “humanitarian,” “cultural,” or “charitable” organizations, are no longer “fighters.” [See "Foreign Muslims Fighting in Bosnia Considered 'Threat' to U.S. Troops," Washington Post, 11/30/95; "Outsiders Bring Islamic Fervor To the Balkans," New York Times, 9/23/96; "Islamic Alien Fighters Settle in Bosnia," Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 9/23/96; "Mujahideen rule Bosnian villages: Threaten NATO forces, non-Muslims," Washington Times, 9/23/96; and Yossef Bodansky, Offensive in the Balkans (November 1995) and Some Call It Peace (August 1996), International Media Corporation, Ltd., London. Bodansky, an analyst with the House Republican Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, is an internationally recognized authority on Islamic terrorism.] The methods employed to qualify for Bosnian citizenship are themselves problematic: “Islamic militants from Iran and other foreign countries are employing techniques such as forced marriages, kidnappings and the occupation of apartments and houses to remain in Bosnia in violation of the Dayton peace accord and may be a threat to U.S. forces.” ["Mujaheddin Remaining in Bosnia: Islamic Militants Strongarm Civilians, Defy Dayton Plan," Washington Post, 7/8/96]

The threat presented by the mujahedin to IFOR (and now, to SFOR) — contingent only upon the precise time their commanders in Tehran or Sarajevo should choose to activate them — has been evident from the beginning of the NATO-led deployment. For example, in February 1996 NATO forces raided a terrorist training camp near the town of Fojnica, taking into custody 11 men (8 Bosnian citizens — two of whom may have been naturalized foreign mujahedin – and three Iranian instructors); also seized were explosives “built into small children’s plastic toys, including a car, a helicopter and an ice cream cone,” plus other weapons such as handguns, sniper rifles, grenade launchers, etc. The Sarajevo government denounced the raid, claiming the facility was an “intelligence service school”; the detainees were released promptly after NATO turned them over to local authorities. ["NATO Captures Terrorist Training Camp, Claims Iranian Involvement," Associated Press, 2/16/96; "Bosnian government denies camp was for terrorists," Reuters, 2/16/96; Bodansky Some Call It Peace, page 56] In May 1996, a previously unknown group called “Bosnian Islamic Jihad” (jihad means “holy war”) threatened attacks on NATO troops by suicide bombers, similar to those that had recently been launched in Israel. ["Jihad Threat in Bosnia Alarms NATO," The European, 5/9/96]

Stepping-Stone to Europe

The intended targets of the mujahedin network in Bosnia are not limited to that country but extend to Western Europe. For example, in August 1995, the conservative Paris daily Le Figaro reported that French security services believe that “Islamic fundamentalists from Algeria have set up a security network across Europe with fighters trained in Afghan guerrilla camps and [in] southern France while some have been tested in Bosnia.” [(London) Daily Telegraph, 8/17/95] Also, in April 1996, Belgian security arrested a number of Islamic militants, including two native Bosnians, smuggling weapons to Algerian guerrillas active in France. [Intelligence Newsletter, Paris, 5/9/96 (No. 287)] Finally, also in April 1996, a meeting of radicals aligned with HizbAllah (“Party of God”), a pro-Iran group based in Lebanon, set plans for stepping up attacks on U.S. assets on all continents; among those participating was an Egyptian, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who “runs the Islamist terrorist operations in Bosnia-Herzegovina from a special headquarters in Sofia, Bulgaria. His forces are already deployed throughout Bosnia, ready to attack US and other I-FOR (NATO Implementation Force) targets.” ["State-Sponsored Terrorism and The Rise of the HizbAllah International," Defense and Foreign Affairs and Strategic Policy, London, 8/31/96] Finally, in December 1996, French and Belgian security arrested several would-be terrorists trained at Iranian-run camps in Bosnia. ["Terrorism: The Bosnian Connection," (Paris)L'Express, 12/26/96]

The Radical Islamic Character of the Sarajevo Regime

Underlying the Clinton Administration’s misguided policy toward Iranian influence in Bosnia is a fundamental misreading of the true nature of the Muslim regime that benefitted from the Iran/Bosnia arms policy: “The most dubious of all Bosniac [i.e., Bosnian Muslim] claims pertains to the self-serving commercial that the government hopes to eventually establish a multiethnic liberal democratic society. Such ideals may appeal to a few members of Bosnia’s ruling circle as well as to a generally secular populace, but President Izetbegovic and his cabal appear to harbor much different private intentions and goals.” ["Selling the Bosnia Myth to America: Buyer Beware," Lieutenant Colonel John E. Sray, USA, U.S. Army Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, KS, October 1995]

The evidence that the leadership of the ruling Party of Democratic Action (SDA), and consequently, the Sarajevo-based government, has long been motivated by the principles of radical Islam is inescapable. The following three profiles are instructive:

Alija Izetbegovic: Alija Izetbegovic, current Bosnian president and head of the SDA, in 1970 authored the radical “Islamic Declaration,” which calls for “the Islamic movement” to start to take power as soon as it can overturn “the existing non-Muslim government . . . [and] build up a new Islamic one,” to destroy non-Islamic institutions (“There can be neither peace nor coexistence between the Islamic religion and non-Islamic social institutions”), and to create an international federation of Islamic states. [The Islamic Declaration: A Programme for the Islamization of Muslims and the Muslim Peoples, Sarajevo, in English, 1990] Izetbegovic’s radical pro-Iran associations go back decades: “At the center of the Iranian system in Europe is Bosnia-Hercegovina’s President, Alija Izetbegovic, . . . who is committed to the establishment of an Islamic Republic in Bosnia-Hercegovina.” ["Iran's European Springboard?", House Republican Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, 9/1/92] The Task Force report further describes Izetbegovic’s contacts with Iran and Libya in 1991, before the Bosnian war began; he is also noted as a “fundamentalist Muslim” and a member of the “Fedayeen of Islam” organization, an Iran-based radical group dating to the 1930s and which by the late 1960s had recognized the leadership of the Ayatollah Khomeini (then in exile from the Shah). Following Khomeini’s accession to power in 1979, Izetbegovic stepped-up his efforts to establish Islamic power in Bosnia and was jailed by the communists in 1983. Today, he is open and unapologetic about his links to Iran: “Perhaps the most telling detail of the [SDA's September 1, 1996] campaign rally . . . was the presence of the Iranian Ambassador and his Bosnian and Iranian bodyguards, who sat in the shadow of the huge birchwood platform. . . . As the only foreign diplomat [present], indeed the only foreigner traveling in the President’s [i.e., Izetbegovic's] heavily guarded motorcade of bulky four-wheel drive jeeps, he lent a silent Islamic imprimatur to the event, one that many American and European supporters of the Bosnian Government are trying hard to ignore or dismiss.” [NYT, 9/2/96] During the summer 1996 election campaign, the Iranians delivered to him, in two suitcases, $500,000 in cash; Izetbegovic “is now ‘literally on their [i.e., the Iranians'] payroll,’ according to a classified report based on the CIA’s analysis of the issue.” [LAT, 12/31/96. See also "Iran Contributed $500,000 to Bosnian President's Election Effort, U.S. Says," New York Times, 1/1/97, and Washington Times, 1/2/97] Adil Zulfikarpasic, a Muslim co-founder of the SDA, broke with Izetbegovic in late 1990 due to the increasingly overt fundamentalist and pro-Iranian direction of the party. [See Milovan Djilas, Bosnjak: Adil Zulfikarpasic, Zurich, 1994]

Hassan (or Hasan) Cengic: Until recently, deputy defense minister (and now cosmetically reassigned to a potentially even more dangerous job in refugee resettlement at the behest of the Clinton Administration), Cengic, a member of a powerful clan headed by his father, Halid Cengic, is an Islamic cleric who has traveled frequently to Tehran and is deeply involved in the arms pipeline. ["Bosnian Officials Involved in Arms Trade Tied to Radical States," Washington Post, 9/22/96] Cengic was identified by Austrian police as a member of TWRA’s supervisory board, “a fact confirmed by its Sudanese director, Elfatih Hassanein, in a 1994 interview with Gazi Husrev Beg, an Islamic affairs magazine. Cengic later became the key Bosnian official involved in setting up a weapons pipeline from Iran. . . . Cengic . . . is a longtime associate of Izetbegovic’s. He was one of the co-defendants in Izetbegovic’s 1983 trial for fomenting Muslim nationalism in what was then Yugoslavia. Cengic was given a 10-year prison term, most of which he did not serve. In trial testimony Cengic was said to have been traveling to Iran since 1983. Cengic lived in Tehran and Istanbul during much of the war, arranging for weapons to be smuggled into Bosnia.” [WP, 9/22/96] According to a Bosnian Croat radio profile: “Hasan’s father, Halid Cengic . . . is the main logistic expert in the Muslim army. All petrodollar donations from the Islamic world and the procurement of arms and military technology for Muslim units went through him. He made so much money out of this business that he is one of the richest Muslims today. Halid Cengic and his two sons, of whom Hasan has been more in the public spotlight, also control the Islamic wing of the intelligence agency AID [Agency for Information and Documentation]. Well informed sources in Sarajevo claim that only Hasan addresses Izetbegovic with ‘ti’ [second person singular, used as an informal form of address] while all the others address him as ‘Mr. President,’” a sign of his extraordinary degree of intimacy with the president. [BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, 10/28/96, "Radio elaborates on Iranian connection of Bosnian deputy defense minister," from Croat Radio Herceg-Bosna, Mostar, in Serbo-Croatian, 10/25/96, bracketed text in original] In late 1996, at the insistence of the Clinton Administration, Hassan Cengic was reassigned to refugee affairs. However, in his new capacity he may present an even greater hazard to NATO forces in Bosnia, in light of past incidents such as the one that took place near the village of Celic in November 1996. At that time, in what NATO officers called part of a pattern of “military operations in disguise,” American and Russian IFOR troops were caught between Muslims and Serbs as the Muslims, some of them armed, attempted to encroach on the cease-fire line established by Dayton; commented a NATO spokesman: “We believe this to be a deliberate, orchestrated and provocative move to circumvent established procedures for the return of refugees.” ["Gunfire Erupts as Muslims Return Home," Washington Post, 11/13/96]

Dzemal Merdan: “The office of Brig. Gen. Dzemal Merdan is an ornate affair, equipped with an elaborately carved wooden gazebo ringed with red velvet couches and slippers for his guests. A sheepskin prayer mat lies in the corner, pointing toward Mecca. The most striking thing in the chamber is a large flag. It is not the flag of Bosnia, but of Iran. Pinned with a button of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran’s late Islamic leader, the flag occupies pride of place in Merdan’s digs — displayed in the middle of the gazebo for every visitor to see. Next to it hangs another pennant, that of the Democratic Action Party, the increasingly nationalist Islamic organization of President Alija Izetbegovic that dominates Bosnia’s Muslim region. . . . Merdan’s position highlights the American dilemma. As head of the office of training and development of the Bosnian army, he is a key liaison figure in the U.S. [arm and train] program. . . . But Merdan, Western sources say, also has another job — as liaison with foreign Islamic fighters here since 1992 and promoter of the Islamic faith among Bosnia’s recruits. Sources identified Merdan as being instrumental in the creation of a brigade of Bosnian soldiers, called the 7th Muslim Brigade, that is heavily influenced by Islam and trained by fighters from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. He has also launched a program, these sources say, to build mosques on military training grounds to teach Islam to Bosnian recruits. In addition, he helped establish training camps in Bosnia where Revolutionary Guards carried out their work.” ["Arming the Bosnians: U.S. Program Would Aid Force Increasingly Linked to Iran," Washington Post, 1/26/96, emphasis added] General Merdan is a close associate of both Izetbegovic and Cengic; the central region around Zenica, which was “completely militarized in the first two years of the war” under the control of Merdan’s mujahedin, is “under total control of the Cengic family.” ["Who Rules Bosnia and Which Way," (Sarajevo) Slobodna Bosna, 11/17/96, FBIS translation; Slobodna Bosna is one of the few publications in Muslim-held areas that dares to criticize the policies and personal corruption of the ruling SDA clique.] Merdan’s mujahedin were accused by their erstwhile Croat allies of massacring more than 100 Croats near Zenica in late 1993. ["Bosnian Croats vow to probe war crimes by Moslems," Agence France Presse, 5/12/95]

The Islamization of the Bosnian Army

In cooperation with the foreign Islamic presence, the Izetbegovic regime has revamped its security and military apparatus to reflect its Islamic revolutionary outlook, including the creation of mujahedin units throughout the army; some members of these units have assumed the guise of a shaheed (a “martyr,” the Arabic term commonly used to describe suicide bombers), marked by their white garb, representing a shroud. While these units include foreign fighters naturalized in Bosnia, most of the personnel are now Bosnian Muslims trained and indoctrinated by Iranian and other foreign militants — which also makes it easier for the Clinton Administration to minimize the mujahedin threat, because few of them are “foreigners.”

Prior to 1996, there were three principal mujahedin units in the Bosnian army, the first two of which are headquartered in the American IFOR/SFOR zone: (1) the 7th Muslim Liberation Brigade of the 3rd Corps, headquartered in Zenica; (2) the 9th Muslim Liberation Brigade of the 2nd Corps, headquartered in Travnik (the 2nd Corps is based in Tuzla); and (3) the 4th Muslim Liberation Brigade of the 4th Corps, headquartered in Konjic (in the French zone). [Bodansky, Some Call It Peace, page 40] Particularly ominous, many members of these units have donned the guise of martyrs, indicating their willingness to sacrifice themselves in the cause of Islam. Commenting on an appearance of soldiers from the 7th Liberation Brigade, in Zenica in December 1995, Bodansky writes: “Many of the fighters . . . were dressed in white coveralls over their uniforms. Officially, these were ‘white winter camouflage,’ but the green headbands [bearing Koranic verses] these warriors were wearing left no doubt that these were actually Shaheeds’ shrouds.” [Some Call It Peace, page 12] The same demonstration was staged before the admiring Iranian ambassador and President Izetbegovic in September 1996, when white winter garb could only be symbolic, not functional. [NYT, 9/2/96] By June 1996, ten more mujahedin brigades had been established, along with numerous smaller “special units” dedicated to covert and terrorist operations; while foreigners are present in all of these units, most of the soldiers are now native Bosnian Muslims. [Some Call It Peace, pages 42-46]

In addition to these units, there exists another group known as the Handzar (“dagger” or “scimitar”) Division, described by Bodansky as a “praetorian guard” for President Izetbegovic. “Up to 6000-strong, the Handzar division glories in a fascist culture. They see themselves as the heirs of the SS Handzar division, formed by Bosnian Muslims in 1943 to fight for the Nazis. Their spiritual model was Mohammed Amin al-Husseini, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem who sided with Hitler. According to UN officers, surprisingly few of those in charge of the Handzars . . . seem to speak good Serbo-Croatian. ‘Many of them are Albanian, whether from Kosovo [the Serb province where Albanians are the majority] or from Albania itself.’ They are trained and led by veterans from Afghanistan and Pakistan, say UN sources.” ["Albanians and Afghans fight for the heirs to Bosnia's SS past," (London) Daily Telegraph, 12/29/93, bracketed text in original]

Self-Inflicted Atrocities

Almost since the beginning of the Bosnian war in the spring of 1992, there have been persistent reports — readily found in the European media but little reported in the United States — that civilian deaths in Muslim-held Sarajevo attributed to the Bosnian Serb Army were in some cases actually inflicted by operatives of the Izetbegovic regime in an (ultimately successful) effort to secure American intervention on Sarajevo’s behalf. These allegations include instances of sniping at civilians as well as three major explosions, attributed to Serbian mortar fire, that claimed the lives of dozens of people and, in each case, resulted in the international community’s taking measures against the Muslims’ Serb enemies. (The three explosions were: (1) the May 27, 1992, “breadline massacre,” which was reported to have killed 16 people and which resulted in economic sanctions on the Bosnian Serbs and rump Yugoslavia; (2) the February 5, 1994, Markale “market massacre,” killing 68 and resulting in selective NATO air strikes and an ultimatum to the Serbs to withdraw their heavy weapons from the area near Sarajevo; and (3) the August 28, 1995 “second market massacre,” killing 37 and resulting in large-scale NATO air strikes, eventually leading to the Dayton agreement and the deployment of IFOR.) When she was asked about such allegations (with respect to the February 1994 explosion) then-U.N. Ambassador and current Secretary of State-designate Madeleine Albright, in a stunning non sequitur, said: “It’s very hard to believe any country would do this to their own people, and therefore, although we do not exactly know what the facts are, it would seem to us that the Serbs are the ones that probably have a great deal of responsibility.” ["Senior official admits to secret U.N. report on Sarajevo massacre," Deutsch Presse-Agentur, 6/6/96, emphasis added]

The fact that such a contention is difficult to believe does not mean it is not true. Not only did the incidents lead to the result desired by Sarajevo (Western action against the Bosnian Serbs), their staging by the Muslims would be entirely in keeping with the moral outlook of Islamic radicalism, which has long accepted the deaths of innocent (including Muslim) bystanders killed in terrorist actions. According to a noted analyst: “The dictum that the end justifies the means is adopted by all fundamentalist organizations in their strategies for achieving political power and imposing on society their own view of Islam. What is important in every action is its niy’yah, its motive. No means need be spared in the service of Islam as long as one takes action with a pure niy’yah.” [Amir Taheri, Holy Terror, Bethesda, MD, 1987] With the evidence that the Sarajevo leadership does in fact have a fundamentalist outlook, it is unwarranted to dismiss cavalierly the possibility of Muslim responsibility. Among some of the reports:

Sniping: “French peacekeeping troops in the United Nations unit trying to curtail Bosnian Serb sniping at civilians in Sarajevo have concluded that until mid-June some gunfire also came from Government soldiers deliberately shooting at their own civilians. After what it called a ‘definitive’ investigation, a French marine unit that patrols against snipers said it traced sniper fire to a building normally occupied by Bosnian [i.e., Muslim] soldiers and other security forces. A senior French officer said, ‘We find it almost impossible to believe, but we are sure that it is true.’” ["Investigation Concludes Bosnian Government Snipers Shot at Civilians," New York Times, 8/1/95]

The 1992 “Breadline Massacre”: “United Nations officials and senior Western military officers believe some of the worst killings in Sarajevo, including the massacre of at least 16 people in a bread queue, were carried out by the city’s mainly Muslim defenders — not Serb besiegers — as a propaganda ploy to win world sympathy and military intervention. . . . Classified reports to the UN force commander, General Satish Nambiar, concluded . . . that Bosnian forces loyal to President Alija Izetbegovic may have detonated a bomb. ‘We believe it was a command-detonated explosion, probably in a can,’ a UN official said then. ‘The large impact which is there now is not necessarily similar or anywhere near as large as we came to expect with a mortar round landing on a paved surface.” ["Muslims 'slaughter their own people'," (London) The Independent, 8/22/92] “Our people tell us there were a number of things that didn’t fit. The street had been blocked off just before the incident. Once the crowd was let in and had lined up, the media appeared but kept their distance. The attack took place, and the media were immediately on the scene.” [Major General Lewis MacKenzie, Peacekeeper: The Road to Sarajevo, Vancouver, BC, 1993, pages 193-4; Gen. MacKenzie, a Canadian, had been commander of the U.N. peacekeeping force in Sarajevo.]

The 1994 Markale “Market Massacre”: “French television reported last night that the United Nations investigation into the market-place bombing in Sarajevo two weeks ago had established beyond doubt that the mortar shell that killed 68 people was fired from inside Bosnian [Muslim] lines.” ["UN tracks source of fatal shell," (London) The Times, 2/19/94] “For the first time, a senior U.N. official has admitted the existence of a secret U.N. report that blames the Bosnian Moslems for the February 1994 massacre of Moslems at a Sarajevo market. . . . After studying the crater left by the mortar shell and the distribution of shrapnel, the report concluded that the shell was fired from behind Moslem lines.” The report, however, was kept secret; the context of the wire story implies that U.S. Ambasador Albright may have been involved in its suppression. [DPA, 6/6/96] For a fuller discussion of the conflicting claims, see “Anatomy of a massacre,” Foreign Policy, 12/22/94, by David Binder; Binder, a veteran New York Times reporter in Yugoslavia, had access to the suppressed report. Bodansky categorically states that the bomb “was actually a special charge designed and built with help from HizbAllah ["Party of God," a Beirut-based pro-Iranian terror group] experts and then most likely dropped from a nearby rooftop onto the crowd of shoppers. Video cameras at the ready recorded this expertly-staged spectacle of gore, while dozens of corpses of Bosnian Muslim troops killed in action (exchanged the day before in a ‘body swap’ with the Serbs) were paraded in front of cameras to raise the casualty counts.” [Offensive in the Balkans, page 62]

The 1995 “Second Market Massacre”: “British ammunition experts serving with the United Nations in Sarajevo have challenged key ‘evidence’ of the Serbian atrocity that triggered the devastating Nato bombing campaign which turned the tide of the Bosnian war.” The Britons’ analysis was confirmed by French analysts but their findings were “dismissed” by “a senior American officer” at U.N. headquarters in Sarajevo. ["Serbs 'not guilty' of massacre: Experts warned US that mortar was Bosnian," (London) The Times, 10/1/95] A “crucial U.N. report [stating Serb responsibility for] the market massacre is a classified secret, but four specialists — a Russian, a Canadian and two Americans — have raised serious doubts about its conclusion, suggesting instead that the mortar was fired not by the Serbs but by Bosnian government forces.” A Canadian officer “added that he and fellow Canadian officers in Bosnia were ‘convinced that the Muslim government dropped both the February 5, 1994, and the August 28, 1995, mortar shells on the Sarajevo markets.’” An unidentified U.S. official “contends that the available evidence suggests either ‘the shell was fired at a very low trajectory, which means a range of a few hundred yards — therefore under [Sarajevo] government control,’ or ‘a mortar shell converted into a bomb was dropped from a nearby roof into the crowd.’” ["Bosnia's bombers," The Nation, 10/2/95]. At least some high-ranking French and perhaps other Western officials believed the Muslims responsible; after having received that account from government ministers and two generals, French magazine editor Jean Daniel put the question directly to Prime Minister Edouard Balladur: “‘They [i.e., the Muslims] have committed this carnage on their own people?’ I exclaimed in consternation. ‘Yes,’ confirmed the Prime Minister without hesitation, ‘but at least they have forced NATO to intervene.’” ["No more lies about Bosnia,"Le Nouvel Observateur, 8/31/95, translated in Chronicles: A Magazine of American Culture, January 1997]

Suppression of Enemies

As might be expected, one manifestation of the radical Islamic orientation of the Izetbegovic government is increasing curtailment of the freedoms of the remaining non-Muslims (Croats and Serbs) in the Muslim-held zone. While there are similar pressures on minorities in the Serb- and Croat-held parts of Bosnia, in the Muslim zone they have a distinct Islamic flavor. For example, during the 1996-1997 Christmas and New Year holiday season, Muslim militants attempted to intimidate not only Muslims but Christians from engaging in what had become common holiday practices, such as gift-giving, putting up Christmas or New Year’s trees, and playing the local Santa Claus figure, Grandfather Frost (Deda Mraz). ["The Holiday, All Wrapped Up; Bosnian Muslims Take Sides Over Santa," Washington Post, 12/26/96] In general:

“Even in Sarajevo itself, always portrayed as the most prominent multi-national community in Bosnia, pressure, both psychological and real, is impelling non-Bosniaks [i.e., non-Muslims] to leave. Some measures are indirect, such as attempts to ban the sale of pork and the growing predominance of [Bosniak] street names. Other measures are deliberate efforts to apply pressure. Examples include various means to make non-Bosniaks leave the city. Similar pressures, often with more violent expression and occasionally with overt official participation, are being used throughout Bosnia.” ["Bosnia's Security and U.S. Policy in the Next Phase: A Policy Paper, International Research and Exchanges Board, November 1996]

In addition, President Izetbegovic’s party, the SDA, has launched politically-motivated attacks on moderate Muslims both within the SDA and in rival parties. For example, in the summer of 1996 former Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic, (a Muslim, and son of the former imam at the main Sarajevo mosque) was set upon and beaten by SDA militants. Silajdzic claimed Izetbegovic himself was behind the attacks. [NYT, 9/2/96] Irfan Mustafic, a Muslim who co-founded the SDA, is a member of the Bosnian parliament and was president of the SDA’s executive council in Srebrenica when it fell to Bosnian Serb forces; he was taken prisoner but later released. Because of several policy disagreements with Izetbegovic and his close associates, Mustafic was shot and seriously wounded in Srebrenica by Izetbegovic loyalists. [(Sarajevo) Slobodna Bosna, 7/14/96] Finally, one incident sums up both the ruthlessness of the Sarajevo establishment in dealing with their enemies as well as their international radical links:

“A special Bosnian army unit headed by Bakir Izetbegovic, the Bosnian president’s son, murdered a Bosnian general found shot to death in Belgium last week, a Croatian newspaper reported . . . citing well-informed sources. The Vjesnik newspaper, controlled by the government, said the assassination of Yusuf Prazina was carried out by five members of a commando unit called ‘Delta’ and headed by Ismet Bajramovic also known as Celo. The paper said that three members of the Syrian-backed Palestinian movement Saika had Prazina under surveillance for three weeks before one of them, acting as an arms dealer, lured him into a trap in a car park along the main highway between Liege in eastern Belgium and the German border town of Aachen. Prazina, 30, nicknamed Yuka, went missing early last month. He was found Saturday with two bullet holes to the head. ‘The necessary logistical means to carry out the operation were provided by Bakir Izetbegovic, son of Alija Izetbegovic, who left Sarajevo more than six months ago,’ Vjesnik said. It added that Bakir Izetbegovic ‘often travels between Brussels, Paris, Frankfurt, Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara, by using Iraqi and Pakistani passports,’ and was in Belgium at the time of the assassination. Hasan Cengic, head of logistics for the army in Bosnia-Hercegovina, was ‘personally involved in the assassination of Yuka Prazina,’ the paper said.” [Agence France Presse, 1/5/94]

Conclusion

The Clinton Administration’s blunder in giving the green light to the Iranian arms pipeline was based, among other errors, on a gross misreading of the true nature and goals of the Izetbegovic regime in Sarajevo. It calls to mind the similar mistake of the Carter Administration, which in 1979 began lavish aid to the new Sandinista government in Nicaragua in the hopes that (if the United States were friendly enough) the nine comandanteswould turn out to be democrats, not communists, despite abundant evidence to the contrary. By the time the Reagan Administration finally cut off the dollar spigot in 1981, the comandantes – or the “nine little Castros,” as they were known locally — had fully entrenched themselves in power.

To state that the Clinton Administration erred in facilitating the penetration of the Iranians and other radical elements into Europe would be a breathtaking understatement. A thorough reexamination of U.S. policy and goals in the region is essential. In particular, addressing the immediate threat to U.S. troops in Bosnia, exacerbated by the extention of the IFOR/SFOR mission, should be a major priority of the 105th Congress.

Israeli West Bank Annexation Bill

By Stephen Lendman
9-29-11

Palestinians petitioned the UN for sovereign recognition and full UN membership.

Four extremist MKs responded, calling for West Bank settlements annexed. A previous article explained, accessed through the following link:

http://sjlendman.blogspot.com/2011/09/calls-to-annex-west-bank-settlements.html

MK Deputy Speaker Danny Danon wants more.

On September 27, the JTA Global News Service of the Jewish People headlined, “Knesset to vote on annexing the West Bank,” saying:

On September 27, Danon said the Knesset will “take up the bill, which he authored, at the end of October.”

It includes rescinding Israeli/PA financial obligations established by prior agreements. According to Danon:

“If the Palestinian Authority wishes to proceed on this reckless path and bring further instability to the region, Israel cannot continue to pour funds into this sinking ship of failed leadership.”

“The funding agreements with the PA were reached with the hope that their leaders would work to create an environment of lasting peace and security with Israel. Given that it is clear that the Palestinians have no such desire, Israel must no longer be required to stand by these arrangements.”

Palestinians, of course, want and deserve what Israel denied them for 63 years after stealing their homeland violently. Using long ago discredited arguments, Danon and others like him think Israel has a divine right to their land.

Growing millions globally disagree, including Israeli Jews and others everywhere able to distinguished between right and wrong.

Danon said his bill nullifies Oslo, stating:

“All obligations between the State of Israel and the Palestinian Authority as established by international agreements….will be considered null and void.”

Oslo, of course, was a Palestinian Versailles, benefitting Israel, not them. Sovereign recognition and full UN membership are first steps to reversing unilateral surrender.

Representative Joe Walsh (R. IL) is as hardline as Danon. On September 8, he introduced HR 394:

“Supporting Israel’s right to annex Judea and Samaria (the West Bank and Jerusalem) in the event that the Palestinian Authority continues to press for unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations.”

He didn’t address if that would make them Israeli citizens, subhuman serfs to be exploited, or illegal infiltrators on Israeli land, subject to arbitrary expulsion.

Nor did consider what right he, others in Washington, or outsiders anywhere have to meddle in internal Palestinian affairs. America, of course, long ago refined it to an art form, attested to by mass global deaths, destruction and human misery.

Walsh also introduced HR 2457: Palestinian Accountability Act:

“To restrict funds for the Palestinian Authority, and for other purposes.”

In other words, obey or we’ll cut off your allowance. Coming with strings, it’s less aid than bondage to do what we say or we’ll spank you with more than harsh words.

On September 27, Turkish Prime Minister proposed a different solution than Walsh and hardline MKs. On September 27, Haaretz headlined, “Erdogan: UN sanctions on Israel could aid Mideast peace process,” saying:

Sanctions “would have resolved the issue of Mideast peace long ago….adding that he felt the Quartet(‘s)” proposal fell far short of resolving the longstanding Israeli/Palestinian conflict.

Through today, he said, “the UN Security Council has issued more than 89 resolutions on prospective sanctions related to Israel, but they’ve never been executed….One might” ask why?

“When it’s Iran in question, you impose sanctions. Similarly with Sudan. What happens with Israel then.”

If sanctioned, the “conflict would have been resolved long ago.” As a result, he believes the Quartet has no interest in resolution. “Unfortunately, I do not even see (its) traces within the Quartet. Because if (it) was so willing to resolve this issue, (it) would have imposed certain issues on Israel today.”

Of course, strained Turkey/Israeli relations place both countries on opposite sides of various issues, including Palestinian statehood.

Despite the Quartet’s anti-Palestinian UN membership proposal, Haaretz headlined, “Israel’s cabinet fails to reach consensus on Quartet plan for talks with Palestinians,” saying:

Netanyahu “and the eight senior cabinet members were unable to (agree on) the Quartet’s initiative for renewed talks between Israel and the Palestinians.”

Despite Netanyahu’s support, consensus so far isn’t reached. Meanwhile, Security Council deliberations continue on and off behind closed doors.

Reports disagree on whether Palestinians have nine needed votes to force a US veto. Haaretz said UN sources say Washington has enough support to avoid a it.

EU representatives acted like Joe Walsh to a degree, telling PA officials they risk losing European aid by acting “unilaterally.”

On September 28, Haaretz headlined, “Palestinian statehood bid to be reviewed by UN committee,” saying:

On Wednesday, the Security Council “unanimously agreed to hand the Palestinian application to join the United Nations to a committee” for review.

Normally, it takes “a maximum of 35 days, but Western diplomats say that this limit can be waived and might take much longer….”

In other words, delay, obstruct, and consign Palestinian membership to memory hole oblivion. It’s simple to get around it through the General Assembly, whether or not the Security Council provides support.

It recommends. The General Assembly alone admits new members provided Abbas goes that route properly.

A Final Comment

Palestinians have always been on their own since Britain’s 1917 Balfour Declaration, promising a Jewish homeland in Palestine. It included a hollow one to indigenous Palestinians that “nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of the existing non-Jewish communities.”

During its Mandate period, they were systematically denied until losing them in 1948, then entirely in 1967. Israel was born in the original sin of mass slaughter and forced expulsion of 800,000 Palestinians, wanting only to live in peace on their own land.

With full backing from Washington and Western states, Palestinians never got justice. Israel operates outside the law with impunity. Peace process conflict resolution never existed and doesn’t now.

Palestinians understand and want official sovereign recognition and full UN membership. In 1987, Law Professor Francis Boyle drafted its 1988 Declaration of Independence.

Through the 1950 Uniting for Peace Resolution 377, full UN membership is obtainable if Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad want it. A simple two-thirds General Assembly majority gets it.

On the Progressive Radio News Hour to air October 2, Boyle said the 170 nations support it, according to the Financial Times. If all 193 UN members vote, 129 are needed.

According to Boyle, if Abbas petitions the General Assembly under Resolution 377, full UN membership can be gotten in two weeks, making Palestine the body’s 194th member.

Despite enormous Washington/Israeli pressure to back down, what Palestinians have wanted for 63 years is within easy reach. It’s for Abbas and Fayyad now to follow through for them.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net.

Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.

http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/.

Karzai trapped in no-man’s land

By M K Bhadrakumar

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has made his first political move a week after the assassination of the head of the Afghan High Peace Council and former president, Burhanuddin Rabbani.

Following a meeting in Kabul that included tribal elders, legislative chairmen, cabinet ministers, former mujahideen commanders and his two vice presidents, Karzai’s office issued a statement on Wednesday admitting that a question mark should be on the Taliban’s capacity to take independent decisions, implying they were merely a Pakistani proxy.

The statement suggested that Karzai no more regards the Taliban as his errant “brothers”, which used to be his preferred epithet to describe the insurgents. “During our three-year efforts for peace, the Taliban has martyred our religious ulema, tribal elders, women, children, old and young. By killing Rabbani, they showed they are not able to take decisions. Now, the question is [whether we should seek] peace with whom, which people?”

Karzai’s retraction
It is a belated confession by Karzai, necessitated by the force of circumstances, as he gropes for a way forward. Conceivably, it need not be taken as the final word. Karzai is grandstanding. Rabbani’s departure has left Karzai stranded in a no-man’s land where he stands all by himself – derided by the Taliban, disowned by the United States and despised by the many fuming detractors within the erstwhile Northern Alliance (NA) groups whom he sidelined and kept out of office.

Karzai has been one of the first and consistent advocates of peace talks with the Taliban. His speech at the London conference in January 2010 bears eloquent testimony to Karzai’s deep-rooted conviction that Taliban are a part of the Afghan nation and should be allowed to participate in mainstream Afghan life. Many countries were not convinced that was the case but still went along since it was Karzai’s Afghan initiative (backed robustly, of course by Richard Holbrooke, the late US special representative for AfPak).

By Karzai’s own admission, Rabbani’s assassination puts a question mark on his power of judgment. Which is an unfair self-indictment because he was fundamentally right in his judgment that the war was not getting anywhere and only through a political settlement with the Taliban can it be brought to an end.

His bete noir, Abdullah Abdullah, the former Afghan foreign minister and presidential candidate, has seized the moment and was in an incendiary mood this week. He said Taliban have “not demonstrated even one sign of interest in seriously coming to the table to discuss a political settlement … They think that using this strategy will allow them to gain power in Afghanistan.”

Abdullah is riding the wave of indignation among Rabbani’s followers. He knows it makes good politics to do some more Karzai-bashing when Washington is listening: “Day by day, the government is losing people’s support an trust. Government bodies like the police and military have not been developed, and there is no rule of law. So, this encourages the Taliban to continue terrorist attacks and bring harm to the people of Afghanistan.”

But what is the alternative that Abdullah would suggest? Karzai had sensed all along that there was widespread opposition to his peace plan among the non-Pashtun groups belonging to the erstwhile Northern Alliance, which Abdullah was tapping into for mounting a political challenge to his presidency. Karzai was wary about Abdullah’s channels to influential quarters in Washington.

Karzai’s trump cards were two. One, he had Rabbani with him. Karzai counted on him as a political bridge to the non-Pashtun constituencies as well as to the mujahideen. With Rabbani gone, he has a problem connecting with the anti-Taliban constituency in Afghanistan, leave alone bringing them on board a broad-based settlement.

The president’s other trump cards have been his two vice presidents, who are powerful satraps in the non-Pashtun political domain. One is Mohammed Fahim, the strongman from Panjshir who inherited Ahmed Shah Massoud’s war machine and the other is Karim Khalili, leader of the Hazara Shi’ites. Both have everything to lose in a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.

Karzai has also been indulging in a delicate exercise in the past few years building bridges with the Pashtun tribes and carving out a base in the southern regions. He depended heavily on the ruthless skills of his half-brother Wali Karzai on this front, but his assassination in July of Kandahar’s mayor has thrown Karzai’s stratagem into shambles.

If the peace process had progressed, a new political dynamic would have emerged that strengthened Karzai, but with Wali and Rabbani removed from the scene, he is forced to gravitate toward the non-Pashtun camp, although it isn’t his natural constituency.

Peering into a bottomless pit 
Ideally, this is a moment when the Americans should raise his comfort level. On the contrary, they are looking away and are consumed by their own problems. The latest United Nations Report on secretary general Ban Ki-Moon’s desk says Afghanistan is witnessing “considerable political volatility and disconcerting levels of insecurity”.

Former commander of US forces in Afghanistan David Petraeus’ claims regarding the encouraging results of the US’s surge seem an obfuscation of the harsh ground reality. The UN report says there has been a 40% increase in the monthly average number of “security incidents” in the first eight months of 2011 as compared to the same period last year.

More important, it says the southeastern region which was the theatre for Petraeus’ surge remains the “focus of military activity” accounting for two-thirds of all violent incidents, and that even where the US handed over responsibility for security to the Afghan forces, a “resilient insurgency” is challenging the efficacy of the transition.

On top of this, the US is barely coping with Pakistan’s blunt refusal to act against the Haqqani network. The standoff can turn into a confrontation any day from now if the US decides to put the Haqqanis on the list of terrorists.

Chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee Dianne Feinstein has written to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that on the basis of the testimony given by the outgoing chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee Mike Mullen, the Haqqani group “meets the standards for designation” as a terrorist organization. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has agreed with Mullen’s testimony.

In such a scenario, logically, the US would have to consider at some stage declaring Pakistan as a state sponsoring terrorism, putting at risk the entire future of the “war on terror”.

Put plainly, the US-Pakistan relationship is peering into a bottomless pit. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani was not far off the mark in his remark that the US’s Afghan policy shows “confusion and policy disarray”.

At such a juncture, where is the time or inclination for the Barack Obama administration to come to Karzai’s rescue? On the other hand, Washington is resorting to blame game accusing Karzai’s government for ineptitude and corruption and as responsible for all that is going wrong.

The biggest danger in Karzai’s gravitation to the NA camp is that it would exacerbate ethnic polarization in Afghanistan. The strengthening of the NA hold on the power structure in Kabul at this juncture virtually forecloses any scope for reconciliation with the Taliban.

As the US drawdown accelerates through the coming months, Karzai will face the dilemma of having to depend more and more on the military muscle of the NA groups. That would be a recipe for another round of civil war.

Regional politics is bound to play a decisive role in what lies ahead. Karzai understands that Pakistan is central to any peace process with the Taliban. He already met Gilani last Thursday when the Pakistani prime minister traveled to Kabul. Gilani is expected in Kabul again in early October.

Pakistan can be expected to do all it can to kickstart another round of peace process. Its interest lies in preventing Karzai becoming a prisoner of the anti-Taliban NA groups, which is to say to prevent a return of the NA’s dominance of the Kabul government. But in the present political climate in Kabul, the task of finding another consensus candidate to replace Rabbani will not be easy.

Meanwhile, Karzai is heading for New Delhi next week, his first visit abroad after Rabbani’s assassination. It is a scheduled visit apparently for delivering a memorial lecture in New Delhi on regional politics, but Karzai would seek India’s support with the expectation that it might give him leverage vis-a-vis Pakistan in the coming period and it has a degree of influence with the NA groups. India, however, would prefer to stand on the sidelines and it remains wary of another civil war in Afghanistan.

India’s warnings of the shape of things to come are indeed coming true but this is hardly the moment for self-gratification. Delhi is exasperated with the inconsistencies and disarray in the US’s policies. The aggravation of the US-Pakistan rift may appear to work to India’s advantage but on the contrary, there is a sense of disquiet in Delhi over the talk of possible military strikes against Pakistan.

The point is, the result of any such US incursions into Pakistan cannot be far different from what happened in Cambodia following the US invasion in April 1970 – namely, a radicalization of the entire region. Just as the Cambodian incursion couldn’t salvage the Vietnam War, in the present case, too, staving off defeat in Afghanistan is going to be very difficult for the US.

All the same, Indian commentators have almost in unison pointed out that Rabbani’s assassination shows there has been hardly any change in the Taliban’s mindset, which militates against the idea of any from of power sharing with other Afghan groups.

Having said that, New Delhi is also keen to build on the current atmosphere of cordiality with Pakistan and encourage Islamabad to draw a line under cross-border terrorist activities. The standoff with the US, ironically, may make Islamabad more receptive to Indian concerns. Karzai will receive renewed assurances of Indian support during his visit next week, but on balance India will not allow itself to be sucked into the Afghan endgame.

Fatal mistake 
The point is, Karzai’s predicament is also the manifestation of a much bigger crisis that is enveloping Afghanistan. The Afghan body polity is virtually crumbling and the US neither has the energy nor the resources and the will to fortify the Afghan state when such support is needed more than ever in the past decade.

The meltdown leading to a civil war can be rapid if the ethnic rift widens in the coming period. The signs are not good in this regard. Rabbani’s assassination has torn asunder the fragile crust that was forming on the ethnic divides in the country. Karzai’s dependence on the “warlords” of the NA will set the clock back in Afghan politics. Parliament is already at a standstill. There is great political uncertainty. Abdullah was echoing a widely held perception among the Afghan politicians when he said that Rabbani’s is not going to be the last political assassination.

But overarching all this is the disintegration of the US’s alliance with Pakistan. The US needs to grasp that it has no alternative but to concede Pakistan’s legitimate interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan is not going to blink since it has high stakes on the Afghan chessboard and Washington is nobody to dictate how to frame its interests.

Any US incursion into Pakistan is sure to bring forth a furious backlash that will dwarf the Beirut Barracks Bombing in October 1983, which killed 241 American servicemen. And that will be the end of the Obama presidency. Make no mistake about it.

The only course available for the US is to rein in the irreconcilable NA elements (many of whom were foolishly propped up by the US as the “anti-thesis” to Karzai and have no standing of their own) and allow Karzai and his Pakistani interlocutors to kickstart another effort within the framework of the Afghan-Pakistan peace process.

It should allow Karzai to select his own nominee to replace Rabbani with whom he can work closely – and whom Pakistan is comfortable with. That should be the first necessary step in the coming days. A vacuum should not be allowed to develop.

Equally, there should be a change of heart on the part of the US and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies; they should not interfere with the intra-Afghan peace process. Despite whatever inadequacies he may have, Karzai is still the most credible figure to lead the Kabul set up in the peace process.

Again, he deserves to be given more space to do the sort of Afghan-style networking that he is good at, and create his own coalition and establish his credibility with the Taliban. This is simply not the time to apply Western norms of politics. Simply put, there has been far too much US interference.

The US and NATO’s attempt to establish a parallel track of their own has been at the root of the discord between Washington and Islamabad. If and when the veil lifts on Rabbani’s assassination, it is more than probable that his recent proximity with the US turned out to be the ultimate fatal mistake on the part of this extraordinary politician, which cost him his life.

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.

The Privatization of Angst-Creating Operations Is An Extroardinaryly Efficient Business Model

Transforming Peace

The Future of European Cultural Stability

By Boris Beauregard

The future of European stability will bring on new ways of omni-directional peace missions defending elite interests through psychological operations based on a security culture of privatization, internalization and economization. To meet these challenges in transforming European peace operations and to face the new strategic options and risk potentials of a globalized world we have to learn from the grand maneuvers of the past.

In March 1961 JF Kennedy stated to US congress “The free world’s security can be endangered not only by nuclear attack, but by being nibbled away at the periphery… by forces of subversion, infiltration intimidation, indirect non-overt aggression, internal revolution, diplomatic blackmail, guerilla warfare or a series of limited wars”. While the game-theoretical drama of nuclear MAD (mutually assured destruction) was at the forefront, it was the hidden wars that truly signified the cold war era: the invisible battle zones on both sides of the iron curtain. By the end of the Second World War secret stay-behind armies are formed on the experiences and strategies of special operations units and the Western Union Clandestine Committee (WUCC) were created to coordinate secret unorthodox warfare. After the founding of NATO it is integrated into the military alliance under the name ‘Clandestine Planning Committee’ (CPC). By 1958 the NATO sets up the Allied Clandestine Committee (ACC) to coordinate undisclosed warfare, later hidden within the Belgian military secret service SGR with its headquarters next to NATO under the code name SDRA11. Underground armies and black programs worked under code-names like SDRA8 in Belgium, Absalon in Denmark, TD BDJ in Germany, LOK in Greece, Gladio in Italy, I&O in the Netherlands, ROC in Norway, Aginter in Portugal, P26 in Switzerland, Counter-Guerrilla in Turkey, and OWSGV in Austria, jointly laying the foundations of a tradition of black sites and outsourcing operations beyond national borders.

What was at first sold as a fall back option, when a country is overrun by enemy forces, soon developed into invisible armies of internal subversion against democratic forces and egalitarian politics. Strategies of tension and a top-level campaign of political destabilization to stabilize power structures were financed from highly discrete state agencies, private sources and multinational firms. Based on hidden structures, training camps were set up to instruct mercenaries in covert action techniques including hands-on bomb campaigns, silent assassination, subversion and black propaganda techniques, clandestine communication, infiltration and colonial warfare. With the various elites of big business, landowners, church and geopolitical interests on one side and the have nots on the other, the battle lines were clearly drawn. Despite its undisputed successes over several decades the concept of clandestine stability operations needs to be adapted to a 21 Century setting of globalized information environments. Even with top secrecy, highest order “need to know” compartmentalization and the frequent physical neutralization of investigative journalists, judges or others, a large percentage of missions did not remain covert. Even without direct links to a state authority or military command structure, the beans were bound to spill. Where traditional approaches come in conflict with the principle of plausible deniability, privatization provides added layers of operational security and the private sector emerges as the future of invisible warfare and 21 century stability.

The historical achievements of the traditional secret forces in the European past were nonetheless impressive. Large leftist demonstrations against British interference in the post-war government in Athens are broken up by LOK, a secret stay-behind army in Greece, with many dead or wounded. Similarly secret operatives in Turkey and other European countries used their skills to attack domestic opponents and spark violent disorder. Some operations are intended to bring about right-wing military rule. The clandestine Hellenic Raiding Force successfully take control over the Greek Defence Ministry in 1967 and install a dictatorship, deep undercover armies supported the Turkish military to stage a coup d’état in 1960 and execute the Prime Minister. In 1971, the military takes power again and the stay-behind army Counter-Guerrilla engages in domestic terror eliminating hundreds. They open fire on a demonstration of 500,000 in Istanbul with 38 dead and countless wounded in1977, three years later the Counter-Guerrilla commander General Kenan Evren seizes power in a coup. In the following years the Counter-Guerrilla tortures and neutralizes thousands of Kurds, with the Turkish Human Rights Association (IHD) claiming more than 3,500 violent transgressions covered up only with partial success.

Italy’s secret army code-named Gladio drives a silent coup d’etat in 1964 and forces a group of Socialist Ministers to leave the government. In a trial thirty years later the Piazza Fontana incident 1969 in Milan with 16 casualties was exposed by General Giandelio Maletti, former head of Italian counterintelligence, as a Gladio operation to discredit the Italian left. A bomb killing three Carabinieri in 1972, again blamed on the left, is traced back to fascist guerilla which leads to exposure of Gladio. Former Prime Minister and DCI leader Aldo Moro, in 1978 about to form a coalition government that includes the Italian Communist Party, is taken hostage in Rome by a secret unit and executed after 55 days. Investigators trace a bomb exploding at the Bologna railway station in 1980 with 85 dead to these paramilitary networks and the P2 lodge. Official figures in a Gladio investigation in the period between January 1969 and December 1987, claim nearly 1500 acts of political violence in Italy’s most recent history with hundreds dead and many more injured. Documents on Gladio discovered by Judge Felice Casson in the military secret service archives in Rome in 1990 force Prime Minister Giulio Andreotti to confirm the secret army’s existence. After Andreotti’s testimony, deep undercover armies are discovered all over Europe. On November 5th 1990, NATO categorically denies allegations concerning involvement in Operation Gladio and secret unorthodox warfare in Europe. On the next day NATO had to explain that the denial of the previous day had been false while refusing to answer any further questions in regard to the existence of an underground parallel intelligence and armed operations organization outside the law and without democratic controls. Later in the month the invisible army was also discussed by the European Union parliament. Various judicial inquiries evidenced serious cases of terrorism and crime. Lamenting the fact that such networks have been set up to interfere in the internal political affairs of Member States, Greek parliamentarian Ephremidis addressed the EU: “It has operated clandestinely, and we are entitled to attribute to it all the destabilization, all the provocation and all the terrorism that have occurred in our countries over these four decades.” With independent arsenals and military resources at their disposal the various “GLADIO” organizations have an indefinite strike potential on countries in which they operate and an EU parliament resolution sharply condemns the manipulation of European politics with the covert armies. When the Senate commission researching Gladio and the assassination of former Prime Minister Aldo Moro files a FOIA request with the CIA in 1995 it replies: “The CIA can neither confirm nor deny the existence or non-existence of records responsive to your request.” But the secret army had already been exposed by former agent Philip Agee in his 1987 book “Dirty Work: The CIA in Western Europe”, where he revealed that paramilitary groups linked to internal subversion operate throughout Europe.

As in Italy, the Belgian left was discredited by well-planned false flag operations carried out by Special Forces together with secret armies targeting, classical capitalist symbols with explosives. Fighting a psychological battle to keep motivation burning even at times of cold war peaceful coexistence, operators had to be kept alert with the help of imaginary dangers of a revolution circulating in the field. The alleged Communist terror group CCC (Cellules Communistes Combattantes) responsible for 27 attacks between October 1984 and fall 1985 had been set up by the network to create the impression that laid back Belgium was on the brink of a revolution. The secret army attacks and shoots shoppers randomly in the Brabant County in 1985 with 28 dead and many wounded. Investigations soon link it to the stay-behind SDRA8, the Belgian Gendarmerie SDRA6, the right-wing group WNP and the DIA. When the criminal police in the city of Frankfurt in Hessen unearth a German secret army BDJ-TD in 1952 the arrested Nazis are found not guilty. Massive connected arsenals of 33 underground arms caches discovered 1981 in the Luneburger Heide contained large amounts of state of the art combat equipment. Next to automatic weapons, massive chemical combat equipment, large amounts of munitions and artillery guns, tons of explosives and explosive devices as well as truck loads of hand grenades. An arsenal used in the previous year to carry out an attack on the Munich Oktoberfest with a dozen casualties and wounding hundreds. In Austria a first secret stay-behind by right-wing extremists is exposed in 1947 but pardoned by Chancellor Koerner. Another secret army codenamed Oesterreichischer Wander-Sport-und Geselligkeitsverein (OWSGV) was set up by MI6, CIA with locals like Franz Olah involved. With a couple of thousand people employed, and only a few in the know, he later confirmed that units were trained in weapons and plastic explosives to fight against leftists in the country. Police discover hidden stockpiles of arms in an old mine near Windisch-Bleiberg in 1965 and force British authorities to hand over lists of other locations. After more top secret arms caches had been brought to light in early 1996, the Austrian Interior Ministry investigation under Michael Sika declared in its final report in November 28 of the following year “that there can be no absolute certainty about the arms caches and their intended use”. Commission member Oliver Rathkolb of Vienna University placed a FOIA request to gain access to the relevant documents, but the CIA declined under exemptions Bl and B3.

Fake insurgencies and assaults to trigger counter-insurgency methods or maneuvers to influence public opinion continue to be highly successful until this day. Some of the greatest success stories cannot be told without having to kill the audience. But despite the obvious operational success a majority of covert interventions have also created messy spillover effects and bad publicity. Judicial and investigative researchers are on the trail of these activities and make connections to recent European events. Even if theses covert operations continue to mystify audiences in the European theater this is clearly a drawback and the basic approach of such state sponsored stability operations must be considered compromised. Clearly the privatized business driven peacekeeping operations are at a double advantage both in discretion and limited liability as well as efficiency and profitability. Since contemporary economies do not produce products but foremost desires which can then be set on a course to be fed with products, outsourced angst creation is a extraordinary efficient business model. Desire for security becomes a potentially endless market because there cannot ever be such a thing as complete security. Structural discipline reduces the need of prisons in the transformation of the welfare state to the security economy but in environments of constantly high threat levels service contracts for black operations need to go beyond simple procedures to terrorize populations. Looking back at the Congress for Cultural Freedom (CCF) or the International Association for Cultural Freedom (IACF) we witness the triumphant deployment of socio-cultural operations in the early cold war theater. Even though modeled on a traditional top down command and control structure they provided a successful blueprint for cultural asteroids of cellular structured information dominance. Their congenial manipulation of the cultural field provides a clear example of the pervasive power of soft weapons of mass protection in the cognitive arena. With violence as a backup only, new models of less-lethal containment and pacification techniques, provide rich business opportunities in sustainable security economies. An investment in truth projection, media consolidation and enduring peacekeeping is not cheap but it grounds its risk management options firmly into economic success. Strategic communications are an investment into reality.

Poland Offers Europe a Bridge to a More Secure Energy and Economic Future

 

 

Redrawing Europe’s Energy Map: Poland’s Offer

The Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom enjoys unwavering control of gas exports to Europe with little current viable competition. The European Union, overall, receives 25 percent of its natural gas supply via pipelines from Russia, with some (mostly Eastern European) consumers almost completely dependent on the large supplier. These consumers have been actively in pursuit of diversification.

Poland’s shale gas discovery has recently given Europe reason to be optimistic in attaining its energy diversification goals and may serve as a means of tackling Europe’s most imminent energy crises. Just the potential for Poland’s offer is enough to make a change.

3 Legs Resources, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Talisman Energy are among companies leading the effort to unlock gas trapped in shale rocks from Poland to Bulgaria. This supply may be enough to meet regional demand for almost 80 years, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Poland has completed seven wells out of a planned 124.

EIA estimates that Eastern Europe may hold as much as 7.1 trillion cubic meters of shale gas. Poland alone may sit atop about 5.2 trillion cubic meters, amounting to more than 300 years of domestic consumption and approximately 55 percent of the estimated shale gas reserves in Europe. This exceeds projected domestic consumer need, indicating Poland may evolve from an energy importer to an energy exporter, a promising sign for Europe’s energy diversification agenda.

To date, Poland has issued 86 exploration licenses. In April, U.S. explorer Marathon Oil Corp. agreed to sell a 40 percent interest in 10 Polish licenses to Nexen. A month later, Total SA signed an agreement with Exxon to take a 49 percent stake in two licenses in eastern Poland. The licensing process is more or less complete.

Poland is a large net importer of natural gas. Of the natural gas consumed in Poland in 2009, 61 percent was imported, almost all of which was supplied by Russia. Realizing the potential for unconventional natural gas to support its declining conventional gas production, the Polish government has shown strong support for shale gas drilling and has put into place very attractive fiscal terms for shale gas development. “Exploration of our own resources is our chance and our obligation,” Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski said. “Shale gas is a chance to limit Poland’s and Europe’s dependence on imports.”

The US shale gas industry serves as a positive influence on the Polish drive for shale gas exploration. Shale gas already covers 20 percent of US gas consumption and Gazprom has admitted that it isn’t able to sell as much to the United States as it used to because of the shale gas reserves there. With the United States as a model, production of shale gas may serve to loosen Poland dependence on Russian gas imports and ease Europe’s energy concerns.

However, Gazprom will not loosen its grip on Eastern European markets easily. Russia has already cut crude oil exports to the major refinery base in Gdansk, sending a clear signal to Warsaw that they should expect other retaliatory actions if they renege on long term contracts with Gazprom.

These responses from Russia are not unique to Poland. Eastern Europe as a whole has been preyed upon by Russian energy and economic interests. Russia-Ukraine gas disputes have been endemic since 2005 and are widely believed to have been Moscow’s response to Ukraine Orange Revolution in 2005, when pro-Western presidential candidate, Viktor Yushchenko was elected after a highly contested election against pro-Russia candidate Viktor Yanukovych. In 2008 and 2009, disputes with Ukraine led Russia to cut off supplies, leaving customers in Kiev and Western Europe briefly without fuel in the dead of winter.

In 2007 a Russia-Belarus energy dispute began when Gazprom demanded an increase in gas prices paid by Belarus. Belarus responded by siphoning off oil from the Druzhba pipeline which runs through Belarus and the dispute escalated further when the Russian state-owned pipeline company, Transneft, stopped pumping the oil entirely. Belarus had yet another dispute with Russian energy suppliers in 2010 concerning outstanding debts.

During its ongoing energy price dispute with Georgia, Gazprom threatened to cut off supplies before finally reaching a settlement in December 2006, a doubling of the price of gas to $235 per 1,000 cubic meters.

“The gas issue in Europe and especially in central and Eastern Europe has much more significance than dollars per cubic meters,” Bulgarian Energy and Economy Minister Traicho Traikov said. “It has to do with national independence.”

The September 2011 launch of the Nord Stream pipeline carrying gas from the Russian Federation to Germany via the Baltic Sea was a successful feat for Gazprom and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Now Russian energy exports can bypass Eastern Europe and Russia can rely significantly less on Ukrainian and other Eastern European pipelines and ensure steady gas flow to Germany and the rest of Western Europe. Shale gas production in Eastern Europe can reverse this isolation.

If initial estimates are confirmed, shale gas production in Poland will, in a decade, transform the European energy market by boosting energy security and lowering gas prices. The Russian Federation will no longer have a secure monopoly of gas exports to Europe and increased competition will ultimately force Russian producers to lower prices. Most importantly, once European shale gas starts running it will be difficult for the Kremlin to use its energy exports as a solid political lever.

Shale gas may be the key to solving some of our most imperative short-term crises. It may serve to bridge the gap to a more secure energy and economic future.

Mackensie Knorr is with the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center.

Source: New Atlanticist

EU Ups the Ante, Offers To Upgrade Ukrainian Gas Transit System, Dismisses Russian South Stream

[This is a repost, since the original article disappeared, somehow.  I hope it is almost equal to the original.--Peter]

[EU negotiators are continuing to play their cards in a very calculated, shrewd manner, emulating their gambling American benefactors by seeming to "bet the house" on their latest hand.  The EU offer to modernize the leaky Ukrainian pipeline system is intended to give the impression that South Stream is just a Russian bluff.  Just days ago, European energy giant BP proposed a new southern pipeline from the Azeri gas fields to Turkey and onward.  The EU's diplomatic blitz to push trough plans for the the Turkmenistan-Azeribaijan Pipeline (TAP) as a means to obtain Turkmen gas, despite Iranian and Russian roadblocks to Caspian delimitation, is a major bluff in itself.  The entire pipeline war scheme could be put into question if Polish shale gas explorations (SEE:  Exxon to Proceed with Hydraulic Fracturing in Poland) prove to be as extensive as preliminary tests indicate, or if the massive Israeli Leviathan gas find, or any new finds around Cyprus or Turkey, become destined for Europe.]

EU assures Ukraine of key gas shipping role for years to come

Kiev (Platts)–30Sep2011/519 am EDT/919 GMT

The European Union assured Ukraine on Thursday that it will continue to be the main transit route for Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, and agreed to disburse $308 million to upgrade its gas pipeline system.

EU energy commissioner Gunther Oettinger late Thursday met Ukrainian Energy and Coal Industry Minister Yuriy Boyko to discuss the plans, and said the money will be disbursed to make sure modernization of the system begins in 2012.

Ukraine will continue to be the most important country for transit of Russian gas to the European Union, Oettinger said at a joint press conference with Boyko late Thursday.

Oettinger said the money will be discussed in detail next week at a meeting involving officials of the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank.

The comment comes less than two weeks after Prime Minister Mykola Azarov warned the EU and Russia that Ukraine may start dismantling its gas pipeline system if Russia keeps building bypassing pipelines.

Azarov, who was reacting to the launch of Nord Stream, a pipeline linking Germany and Russia via the Baltic Sea, said the EU and Russia must let Ukraine know if they still need the Ukrainian system.

Nord Stream, which is currently being filled with gas, will be able to ship up to 28 Bcm/year of gas from Yuzhnorusskoye gas field in Yamal region of Russia.

KEY SHIPPER

Ukraine operates one of the world’s largest natural gas transportation systems and is responsible for shipments of 110 Bcm of gas annually, or up to 80% of Russia’s Europe-bound gas supplies.

Ukraine earns about $2.7 billion annually from rendering gas transportation services to Gazprom of Russia, but those earnings would come under threat if Russia continues to build bypassing pipelines.

One such planned pipeline is South Stream, a pipeline that would link Russia and Bulgaria via the Black Sea. The pipeline’s construction hasn’t yet been started, but Ukraine fears the project, if completed, would undermine its role as a gas shipper.

Oettinger argued that Ukraine will continue to play the major role as a gas shipper even with the launch of Nord Stream because the EU’s gas demand is expected to increase.

He said the EU’s annual demand for gas is expected to increase to about 600 Bcm/year within years, up from about 500 Bcm/year currently, and that will be enough to keep the Ukrainian gas pipelines busy.

Yuriy Korolchuk, a senior analyst at the Kiev-based independent Energy Research Institute, agreed that Ukraine will continue to play the key role as the gas shipper.

“Ukraine will continue to be the main transit nation for Russian gas to the EU for a long time to come,” Korolchuk said.

Russia is expected to deliver 155 Bcm of gas to Europe in 2011, of which 110 Bcm will be shipped via Ukraine, Korolchuk said.

Korolchuk estimated that Europe’s gas demand is expected to increase to up to 700 Bcm/year by 2020, up from 530 Bcm/year in 2010.

–Alexander Bor, newsdesk@platts.com

Impacts of Shale Gas and Shale Oil Extraction on the Environment and on Human Health

Impacts of Shale Gas and Shale Oil Extraction on the Environment and on Human Health.pdf

CONTENTS
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 5
LIST OF TABLES 8
LIST OF FIGURES 8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9
1. INTRODUCTION 12
1.1. Shale gas 12
1.1.1. What is shale gas? 12
1.1.2. Recent development of unconventional gas extraction 14
1.2. Shale oil 15
1.2.1. What is shale oil and tight oil? 15
1.2.2. Recent development of tight oil extraction 16
2. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 17
2.1. Hydraulic fracturing and its possible impacts on the environment 17
2.2. Impacts on Landscape 20
2.3. Air Pollutant Emissions and Soil Contamination 22
2.3.1. Air pollutants from regular operations 22
2.3.2. Pollutants from well blowouts or accidents at drilling sites 24
2.4. Surface and ground water 25
2.4.1. Water consumption 25
2.4.2. Water contamination 27
2.4.3. Waste water disposal 29
2.5. Earthquakes 30
2.6. Chemicals, Radioactivity and Impacts on Human Health 30
2.6.1. Radioactive Materials 30
2.6.2. Chemicals to be used 31
2.6.3. Impacts on human health 34
2.7. Possible long term ecological benefits 35
2.8. Discussion of risks in public debates 36
2.9. Resources consumption 37
3. GREENHOUSE GAS BALANCE 39
3.1. Shale and tight gas 39
3.1.1. Experiences in North America 39
3.1.2. Transferability to European conditions 43
3.1.3. Open issues 46
3.2. Tight oil 46
3.2.1. Experiences in Europe 46
3
Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy
_________________________________________________________________
4. EU REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 48
4.1. Extractive Industry specific Directives 48
4.2. Non-specific Directives (focus: environment and human health) 51
4.2.1. General Mining Risks covered by EU-Directives 51
4.2.2. Specific shale gas and tight oil risks covered by EU-Directives 54
4.3. Gaps and open issues 61
5. AVAILABILITY AND ROLE IN A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY 64
5.1. Introduction 64
5.2. Size and location of shale gas and oil deposits compared to conventional
deposits 65
5.2.1. Shale gas 65
5.2.2. Shale oil and tight oil 68
5.3. Analysis of producing shale gas plays in the United States of America 70
5.3.1. First month production rate 70
5.3.2. Typical production profiles 71
5.3.3. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well 71
5.3.4. Some examples in the USA 71
5.3.5. Key parameters of major European gas shales 73
5.3.6. Hypothetical field development 74
5.4. Role of shale gas extraction in the transition to a low-carbon economy
and the long-term reduction of CO2 emissions 74
5.4.1. Conventional gas production in Europe 74
5.4.2. Probable relevance of unconventional gas production on European gas supply 75
5.4.3. Role of shale gas production for long-term reduction of CO2 emissions 76
6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 77
REFERENCES 80
ANNEX: CONVERSION FACTORS 88

Israel and Turkey Whip-Out Their American-Made Phallus Symbols At Each Other Over Cyprus

Report: Israeli warplanes harassed Turkish seismic ship off East Med

TODAYSZAMAN.COM,

An Israeli F-15 fighter jet prepares to land at an airforce base South of Tel Aviv. A news report said two F-15 jets that took off from Tel Aviv harrased a Turkish seismic research ship which is exploring gas near Cyprus.

A Turkish seismic research ship which is exploring gas near Cyprus was harassed by two low-flying Israel warplanes and a helicopter on Thursday night, Turkish Vatan daily reported on Friday.

Vatan referred to a story by the Greek Cypriot daily Phileleftheros, which argued that Israel boosted its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean as of Thursday night. The report said the two F-15 jets that took off from Tel Aviv flew through the Greek Cypriot and the Turkish Cypriot airspaces. The jets reportedly ignored warnings from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) officials and got so close to Turkey’s Mediterranean coasts that they could be even seen from Mersin’s beaches, the report said. Turkey then reportedly sent two F-16 jets to the area to track the Israeli jets, which then returned to Israel. An Israeli military helicopter also flew over the Turkish research ship, Piri Reis, on Thursday night, according to the daily, as it was in the Aphrodite gas field, off Cyprus’ southern coast and adjacent to the larger Leviathan field. The helicopter flew low over the ship for a long time, the report said. Greek Cyprus has signed agreements to delineate undersea borders in the eastern Mediterranean with Israel, Lebanon and Egypt. A US company licensed by the Greek Cypriot government to drill for gas in the south of Cyprus, Noble Energy, operates with its Israeli partner, Delek. In December 2010, Noble Energy announced that a gas reserve of 16 trillion cubic feet had been discovered off the coast of Israel, estimated to be worth more than $95 billion. Noble Energy owns nearly 40 percent of the prospective discovery in the Israeli section, alongside Israeli partners Delek Group Ltd. units Avner Oil and Gas LP and Delek Drilling LP, with 22.67 percent each. In response, Turkey signed an oil and gas exploration deal with the Turkish Cypriots and sent a Turkish research ship to the Mediterranean to start exploration. Turkey opposes exploration of gas in the eastern Mediterranean, saying it has rights in the region as the biggest coastal state and that the Turkish Cypriots, who run a state that is not internationally recognized in the north of the island, should also be involved. Cyprus is divided into a Greek Cypriot south and a Turkish Cypriot north. The southern administration began exploratory drilling for oil and gas last week, prompting strong protests from Turkey, which does not recognize the Greek Cypriot administration.

Yemen Claims Radical American Cleric Killed in Airstrike

Radical Qaida Cleric Awlaqi Killed in Yemen

by Naharnet Newsdesk

Radical U.S.-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaqi has been killed with several other suspected al-Qaida operatives, the Yemeni defense ministry said on Friday.

The ministry did not elaborate on the circumstances of Awlaqi’s death in a statement released to the media.

But tribal sources told Agence France Presse that Awlaqi, who is wanted by Washington, was killed in an air strike which hit two vehicles in Marib province, an al-Qaida stronghold in eastern Yemen, early on Friday.

Source Agence France Presse

Obama Flips-Off China Selling Upgrades for 145 F-16s To Taiwan

China: U.S. arms sale to Taiwan will disrupt military exchanges, joint drills

( Source: Xinhua  )         2011-September-28 17:49

　　BEIJING. Sept. 28 (Xinhua) — A defense official on Wednesday said the latest U.S. arms sale to Taiwan will disrupt China-U.S. military exchanges and joint drills.

“In light of the serious damage resulting from the U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, planned China-U.S. military exchanges, including high-level visits and joint exercises, will definitely be impacted,” Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said at a monthly press briefing.

Geng’s comments came a week after the U.S. government notified Congress of its decision to sell arms worth 5.85 billion U.S. dollars to Taiwan, including upgrades for 145 of Taiwan’s fighter jets.

Geng issued a statement condemning the sale, saying the move will create severe obstacles for military exchanges between the U.S. and China.

Chen Bingde, chief of the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army of China, spoke by phone to Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen about the issue last Friday at Mullen’s request, according to Geng.

“Mullen gave explanations for the U.S. arms sale, while Chen expressed China’s solemn stance on the issue,” Geng said.

Geng urged the United States to take immediate and effective measures to dispel any negative impact that the arms sale has had on bilateral military relations.

He called on the United States to honor its commitment regarding the Taiwan issue, stop selling arms and take practical measures to work for the healthy and steady development of China-U.S. military relations.

Editor :  Ouyang Dongmei

Obama, Uzbek leader discuss Afghan supply route

By Matt Spetalnick and Susan Cornwell

WASHINGTON

(Reuters) – President Barack Obama and Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov discussed expanding U.S. use of the central Asian country as a route to supply troops in Afghanistan, a U.S. official said on Thursday, amid growing concern about the viability of Pakistan as a transit route.

The White House said Obama called Karimov on Wednesday to congratulate the former Soviet republic on its 20th anniversary of independence and that the leaders talked about shared interests in a “secure and prosperous” Afghanistan.

Obama’s outreach to Karimov, whose has faced U.S. criticism over his human rights record, came as the United States and Pakistan are locked in a diplomatic crisis over U.S. accusations linking Pakistan’s chief intelligence agency to militant attacks on Americans in Afghanistan.

Rising tension between Washington and Islamabad, at times awkward partners in the fight against Islamic militancy, have raised questions about Pakistan’s role as a major U.S. supply route for American forces fighting in Afghanistan.

That has sent U.S. officials scrambling to consider expanding alternatives to lessen reliance on Pakistan.

A senior Obama administration official said the use of Uzbek territory, which already serves as a key supply route for U.S. war supplies, was an “important topic of discussion” between Obama and Karimov.

On Capitol Hill, U.S. senators have also made a clear push for improving ties with Uzbekistan so that more supplies can be moved to and from Afghanistan through the “Northern Distribution Network” that goes through Uzbekistan.

INCREASINGLY STRIDENT

U.S. lawmakers have become increasingly strident in criticism of Pakistan since last week when the top U.S. military officer, Admiral Mike Mullen, accused Pakistani officials of supporting the militant Haqqani network’s September 13 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

U.S. aid to Pakistan is now under review.

The Senate Appropriations Committee last week approved a bill that would allow the United States to waive restrictions on aid to Uzbekistan if Secretary of State Hillary Clinton certifies this is needed to obtain access to and from Afghanistan.

Those restrictions had been placed on aid to Uzbekistan out of concern over its human rights record. The measure must still be approved by the full House of Representatives and Senate.

“We’re going to probably replace 50 percent of what we ship into Afghanistan from Pakistan, will go through the northern route, Uzbekistan,” Senator Lindsey Graham, who is on the committee, told Reuters this week.

“I expect a major breakthrough between us and the Uzbeks in terms of ground and air access,” Graham said.

Karimov has kept a firm state grip on the economy of Uzbekistan, which has reserves of natural gas and is a major producer of cotton and gold.

A former top Communist Party official, Karimov tolerates no dissent in the mostly Muslim nation of 28 million people, the most populous in Central Asia.

No opposition parties are allowed, the media is tightly controlled and rights groups say thousands of political prisons are in jails rife with torture. Karimov’s unflinching style has also caused tension with Uzbekistan’s neighbors.

(Additional reporting by John O’Callaghan; Editing by Will Dunham)

Kabul to Drop Trilateral Peace Effort

European Pressphoto Agency

By DION NISSENBAUM And MARIA ABI-HABIB

KABUL—Afghanistan plans to suspend an effort to work with Pakistan and the U.S. to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, Afghan officials said, taking a tougher line with Pakistan after last week’s assassination of Kabul’s top peace negotiator.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai attends a condolence ceremony in Kabul this week for Burhanuddin Rabbani, the slain former President and head of High Peace Council.

Senior U.S., Pakistani and Afghan officials had been set to meet in Kabul on Oct. 8 to discuss ways of getting insurgents into peace talks and ending the 10-year-old conflict. Afghanistan has decided to cancel this meeting, deputy national security adviser Shaida Mohammad Abdali said Thursday.

“From now on Afghanistan will follow ‘trust but verify’ approach towards Pakistan, in particular with regard to our peace effort,” said Mr. Abdali, who suggested that Kabul would no longer accept Pakistan’s offers of help without questioning its sincerity.

Afghanistan is also shelving plans for Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to visit Kabul at the end of October for a meeting of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Commission for Reconciliation and Peace in Afghanistan, a three-month-old initiative intended to galvanize the peace process.

Officials at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul declined to comment on Afghanistan’s moves. The U.S. still plans to send Marc Grossman, the State Department’s special representative for the region, to Kabul for talks next week that were meant to include the trilateral meeting, said Gavin Sundwall, a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy.

Afghanistan’s decision to scuttle the meetings is another setback for U.S.-led efforts to cultivate a regional dialog that would make it easier to withdraw most coalition military forces by late 2014.

The cancellations signal a change in strategy for Afghan leaders, who had sought to use the killing in May of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan as a chance to open a new, conciliatory chapter with Pakistan.

But Afghan and U.S. relations with Islamabad have deteriorated in recent weeks following the Sept. 13 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and the subsequent assassination of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani.

Last week, outgoing U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen accused Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency, or ISI, of sponsoring the Haqqani network, the militant group blamed by the U.S. for the embassy attack. Pakistani officials rejected the charge.

Afghan officials have also accused Pakistani intelligence of organizing the elaborate ruse that allowed a purported Taliban emissary to kill Mr. Rabbani, who was leading attempts to broker a peace deal with the Taliban’s top leaders, who are believed to be based in Quetta, Pakistan.

“This was a turning point,” Mr. Abdali said of the assassination. “Definitely it goes back to the same place: Pakistan. The phone calls go all the way from here to Quetta.”

The White House has moved to soften American criticism of Pakistan, seeking to prevent a breakdown in relations.

Afghan officials, however, are ratcheting up the pressure. The alleged four-month project to kill Mr. Rabbani—a plot that convinced Mr. Karzai the Taliban were sending a peace envoy—was too complex to have been the sole work of the Taliban or Haqqanis, said Mr. Abdali.

“There is no question Haqqani is hand-in-glove with the ISI,” echoed Jawed Ludin, Afghanistan’s deputy foreign minister. “For Afghanistan, we’re very, very clear that the ultimate responsibility rests with the ISI.”

—Matthew Rosenberg
contributed to this article

Pak/US War Provocation from the Brits

[The following piece of work from the premier London think tank (of course it is "independent" from the crown), Royal United Services Institute, reads like pure provocation.  It is obviously meant to raise temperatures even further on all sides.]

America loses patience with Pakistan

Relations between the US and Pakistan have reached a breaking point.

Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari with President Obama at the White House Photo: GETTY

By Shashank Joshi

8:34PM BST 29 Sep 2011

33 Comments

Pakistan’s deposed military dictator, Pervez Musharraf, told The Daily Telegraph yesterday that “the United States must accept the compulsions of Pakistan” in using terrorist groups as instruments of foreign policy.

For a decade, the US did just that, even in the face of mounting evidence that Pakistan was responsible for derailing the war in Afghanistan and killing allied forces. But America’s top military officer has now taken the gloves off.

Admiral Mike Mullen, regarded as one of the most pro-Pakistan officials in the US government, has informed the Senate that the Haqqani network – a Taliban-linked insurgent group – is a “veritable arm” of the ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence service. “With ISI support,” said Mullen, the Haqqanis had bombed the US embassy in Kabul earlier this month. For the first time in history, an ally – one which has taken $22 billion of American money since 2002 – stands accused of committing an effective act of war against the US.

We are witnessing the death spasms of an alliance that has been in meltdown from the day it began. Pakistan helped ferry al-Qaeda fighters from Afghanistan after 9/11, and spent the following years helping the Taliban to build up their strength. In 2009, the US tried to repair this by promising billions of dollars and a “strategic partnership” of equals. But a series of incidents this year – from the imprisonment of an American spy to the raid that killed Osama bin Laden – underscores the profound disillusionment felt by a generation of US officials.

There is a dawning realisation that no amount of money will compel Pakistan’s out-of-control army to stop aiding insurgents like the Haqqani network and international terrorists like Lashkar-e-Taiba, responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Even as jihadi outfits tear apart the Pakistani state, the generals can’t give up their addiction to proxy warriors. But if they keep acting like an enemy, the Americans have no choice but to treat them like one.

FBI faces entrapment questions over Rezwan Ferdaus bomb plot arrest

[Have there been any serious bomb threats since Oklahoma City?  It seems that the FBI have been the brains and suppliers behind most previous terror bombings; it is good that they are at least consistent.  It is highly unlikely that the model F-4 planes seen in the video could have flown with a bomb payload of twelve pounds of C4.  It is extremely unlikely that such an overloaded air platform could have obtained flight, or been controllable if it did.  Maybe the guy was just a model airplane enthusiast and he used the FBI to obtain toys out of his own price range.]

Mass. Man and Possible FBI Entrapment plot, posted with vodpod

Sting operation to arrest physics graduate, 26, raises concerns that US Muslims might be targeted using entrapment techniques

• Paul Harris
• guardian.co.uk

Rezwan Ferdaus is accused of plotting to crash explosive-filled miniature planes into the US Capital and Pentagon. Photograph: AP

The dramatic arrest of a man in Massachusetts accused of plotting to crash explosive-filled miniature airplanes into the US Capitol and the Pentagon has sparked fresh concerns that the FBI might be using entrapment techniques aimed at Muslims in America.

Rezwan Ferdaus, a 26-year-old US citizen and physics graduate who lived at home with his parents in Ashland, near Boston, was the target of an FBI sting in which he bought a miniature aircraft that he planned to outfit as a flying bomb.

However, some legal organisations and Muslim groups have questioned whether Ferdaus, whose activities were carried out with two undercover FBI agents posing as terrorists, would have been able to carry out such a sophisticated plot if left to his own devices. In numerous previous cases in the US, the FBI has been accused of over-zealousness in its investigations and of entrapping people into terror plots who might otherwise not have carried out an attack.

“It deeply concerns us. It is another in a pattern of high-profile cases. Would this person have conceived or executed this plot without the influence of the FBI?” said Heidi Boghosian, president of the National Lawyers Guild.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations also expressed its concern and wondered if more details would later emerge at trial that showed the full scale of the FBI involvement in setting up the sting. “There is a big, big difference between a plot initiated by the FBI and a plot initiated by a suspect, and it seems this might have been initiated by the FBI,” said Ibrahim Hooper, CAIR’s director of communications.

The lengthy affidavit filed by prosecutors against Ferdaus details an elaborate plot in which he repeatedly expressed his desire to kill Americans and his support for Islamic jihad. The affidavit showed he came up with a detailed plan of attack and even scouted his targets in Washington in person. He also built mobile phone “detonators” that he supplied to undercover FBI agents posing as al-Qaida terrorists and expressed his pleasure when told him they had been used to kill American soldiers in Iraq.

However, it also contains some areas of concern. Few details are given as to how Ferdaus came to the attention of the FBI. Mention is only made of a co-operating witness, known as CW, who met Ferdaus in December 2010 and soon began recording his conversations.

No details are given as to CW’s identity, but it is mentioned that he or she has a criminal record and has served time in prison. That raises the prospect that the CW may have had some ulterior motive to bring an alleged terror suspect to the attention of the FBI or could be an unreliable witness.

Another potential area of concern is a meeting on 19 April 2011, when the undercover agents met with Ferdaus and questioned the “feasibility” of his plan. That raises the prospect that the FBI agents were somehow goading Ferdaus into more action. “Ferdaus responded in a defensive manner that he had made progress,” the affidavit stated.

At the same meeting the undercover agents also gave financial assistance for Ferdaus to travel to Washington on a scouting trip: a fact that raises the question of whether he would have made the trip without that financial help. The undercover agents also supplied thousands of dollars in cash for Ferdaus to buy the F-86 Sabre miniature plane to be used in an attack.

Another portion of the affidavit also details Ferdaus’s enthusiasm for making mobile phone detonation devices that he believed were being sent to Iraq and used by terrorists. Ferdaus suggested sending a box of 50 mobile phones to war zones where terrorists were in need of them. He even wanted to set up a sort of workshop to produce up to 30 of the devices a week.

“Ferdaus indicated that he could write instructions or make a video on how to construct the cell phone detonation devices,” the affidavit said. Such an apparently outlandish idea that hinges on the idea that Islamic terrorists are desperately short of cheap mobile phones might suggest Ferdaus was, to some extent, a fantasist rather than a genuine threat.

However, some legal experts said that the case against Ferdaus appeared compelling, especially as he frequently and repeatedly indicated his desire and willingness to carry out terrorist attacks against Americans. In trying to mount a successful defence of entrapment it is vital to prove that a suspect has no pre-disposition to the crime they are accused of doing. In the Ferdaus case that would seem to be difficult, lawyers said.

“He took the weaponry and agreed to do it. That demonstrates a propensity and willingness to do it,” said Anthony Barkow, a former terrorism prosecutor and executive director of the Center on the Administration of Criminal Law at New York University.

Barkow defended the FBI investigation and said that the US authorities took careful steps to avoid the issue of entrapment. “The Justice Department is very aware of this issue,” he said.

Certainly the affidavit against Ferdaus paints a compelling picture of a man hellbent on waging jihad in America and eager to take the guns and explosives eventually supplied to him by the undercover FBI agents. He repeatedly states in recorded conversations that he is happy for Americans to die and that the idea for the attack was his own. “That’s excellent,” Ferdaus said when told one of his phone detonators had been used overseas and had killed Americans.

The prosecution case also reveals how Ferdaus ordered the plane and rented a storage facility in which to keep it and then took delivery from the FBI agents of 25 pounds of C-4 explosives, three grenades and six AK-47 rifles. It also shows Ferdaus explaining how he had become convinced that he needed to attack America after viewing jihadist websites online. “I just can’t stop; there is no other choice for me,” he said of his decision to launch the attacks.

Prosecutors have staunchly defended the FBI operation. “Our top priority is to protect our nation from terrorism and national security threats,” said US attorney Carmen Ortiz.

FBI officials have also said the investigation was carried out responsibly and to head off a real threat. “We have an obligation to take action to protect the public whenever an individual expresses a desire to commit violence. A committed individual, even one with no direct connections to, or formal training from, an international terrorist organization, can pose a serious danger to the community,” said Richard DesLauriers, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI’s Boston Division

TRIBALISM AND IMPERIAL DECLINE

Restoring Afghanistan’s Tribal Balance.pdf

 

FUTURE STATE: TRIBALISM AND IMPERIAL DECLINE

HEGELIAN DIALECTIC

The situation in Afghanistan is a microcosm of a much larger issue facing Western neocolonial powers, for the global elite’s hegemonic shield has begun to fissure and is in jeopardy of being split asunder at a pace that has defied any prognostications based on the unrest that’s erupted amongst native populations across the globe.
And there is no country in a more precarious position than the United States, which has the bulk of its resources and military mired in two Muslim countries overseas during a time of explosive upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa. The U.S. stands flatfooted while witnessing revolts, riots and uprisings against American-backed dictatorships and puppet monarchies in such countries as Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan and Algeria, among others.
The modern American empire was established in the post-WWII era during the dawn of the Cold War, as British mercantilists passed the imperial baton to the U.S., its corporate elites and associated concentrations of domestic private power. Along with it, the U.S. inherited a 19th century European worldview referred to as the Hegelian Dialectic, which is based on the belief that “conflict creates history.”
The dialectic is derived from German philosopher Georg Hegel’s critique of natural law, written in 1825, in which he posited a theory of social and historical evolution which served as the foundation for the communist economic theories of Karl Marx and Frederick Engels. Hegel in essence disputed the theory of universal natural rights espoused by other philosophers such as Immanuel Kant, as Hegel laid the foundation for the justification of totalitarianism.
According to Hegel, human society can only achieve its highest state and mankind its highest spiritual consciousness through endless self-perpetuating ideological struggles and conflicts between bipolar extremes which result in the eventual synthesizing of opposites. The continual merging of juxtaposing social, economic and cultural ideals as established by extreme right or left belief systems will, according to Hegel, inevitably lead mankind to final perfection.
The “formula” of this theory is based on the notion that each stage of human advance – and the course of history itself – is driven by an argument (thesis), a counterargument (anti-thesis)) and a synthesis of the two extremes into a more advanced argument, and so on and so forth, ad infinitum.
Niki Raapana and Nordica Friedrich 10 from the Anti-Communitarian League provide examples of some of the most common extremes that function to advance the “invisible dialectic”:
10 http://www.cabiz.net/vincent/helgeliandialectic.htm

We can see it in environmentalists instigating conflicts against private property owners, in democrats against republicans, in greens against libertarians, in communists against socialists, in neo-cons against traditional conservatives, in community activists against individuals, in pro-choice versus pro-life, in Christians against Muslims, in isolationists versus interventionists, in peace activists against war hawks. No matter what the issue, the invisible dialectic aims to control both the conflict and the resolution of differences, and leads everyone involved into a new cycle of conflicts.
Dialecticians claim the long-term objective is for man to achieve a more egalitarian condition, yet, in practice, it simply arms those seeking power with the means to manipulate society – a path that has enabled the modern-day control of the many by the few. The ultimate goal is to allow for natural social evolution to run its course to form a utopian “New World Order”, i.e., a world government ruled by the global elite. It is a system of designed social conflict that is used to create a desired social change. Such a desired end state was spelled out by Hegel himself when he said:
"…the State ‘has the supreme right against the individual, whose supreme duty is to be a member of the State… for the right of the world spirit is above all special privileges.”
According to Antony Sutton11, “Above all, the Hegelian doctrine is the divine right of States rather than the divine right of kings.” Sutton claimed that the State for Hegel and Hegelians is God on earth, quoting Hegel again:
"The march of God in history is the cause of the existence of states, their foundation is the power of Reason realizing itself as will. Every state, whatever it be, participates in the Divine essence. The State is not the work of human art, only Reason could produce it."
Looking back over the past 100 years or so it is almost impossible not to see how global elites have established both right and left elements to bring about a global society run by the few. Right-left situations have been deliberately created and placed into conflict to bring about such a synthesis.
The Hegelian dialectic is a powerful tool for influencing the dialogues of cultures and nations, especially if one already controls and/or owns much of the mainstream media – the arena wherein fabricated extremist arguments take place.
As George Orwell ominously put it, "He who controls the past controls the future". Hence, it is altogether possible, and likely, that those who control/own the media can manipulate and revise one’s beliefs and perceptions about historical events in order to influence future behavior.
11 Sutton, Antony, America’s Secret Establishment (Trine Day reprint, 2002)

At a micro-level, this phenomenon has occurred in recent modern history in Afghanistan, where the same Western-backed warlords and fascist leaders have been continually recycled and enthroned with authority by the West, over the past three decades, who then suppress and dominate the population and weaken the tribal balance.
Every decade or so atrocious war crimes are erased from memory by foreign planners at the end of an occupation or civil war, who then, again and again, bestow their favorite strongmen with illegitimate power.
Even more illustrative of the struggle between forever changing dialectic extremes and revisionist history is how during the “jihad” against the Soviets, the Judeo-Christian West teamed up with violent Islamic radicals of the worst sort against the Soviets, because they shared a common hatred for the godless communists.
The same people American leaders once called “freedom fighters” throughout the 80’s are now violent extremist jihadist terrorists who commit immoral acts and heinous human rights violations that all Americans should find deplorable.
Of course, before 9/11 when these “terrorists” were fighting against the Soviets, they were “our terrorists” and such human rights violations and war crimes hardly ever made the press. Today, people aren’t really supposed to remember nor point out this interesting historical irony, especially within the media.
THWARTING A LOSING TRAJECTORY
But, based on our limited successes in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the tumult in the Greater Middle East, has the Hegelian dialectic run its course? Is the American empire at its turning point?
The only way to defeat the progression of Hegel’s hypothesis is to step outside the dialectic and release ourselves from the limitations of controlled and guided thought, by reaffirming our belief in the natural rights of all humans, a concept purportedly the bedrock of American government.
Sutton compares the Hegelian dialectic to the spirit and letter of the Constitution of the United States, stating how "We the people" grant the state some powers and reserve all others to the people and not self-appointed elite running the State.
If Americans truly believe the rights of the state are always subordinate and subject to the will of the people and consent of the governed, and truly believe that all people are endowed with inalienable rights and are created equal, then the dialectic must be abandoned.
The West should be willing extend this doctrine of natural rights to all humanity, not simply a select few – let alone support governments and special interests that actively undermine them.

Hence, Westerners must rediscover themselves by restoring those principles and traditions they claim to uphold.
It is time for Western leaders to understand the dialectic, which demands perpetual war, is a losing cause that has outlived whatever usefulness it ever had. As difficult as it may be for Westerners to grasp, not only does Afghanistan’s future lie in reconnecting with its ancient tribal past, but the West’s future lies in a similar process of retribalization so they can address their own identity crisis. To quote from McLuhan again:
“… we’re standing on the threshold of a liberating and exhilarating world in which the human tribe can become truly one family and man’s consciousness can be freed from the shackles of mechanical culture and enabled to roam the cosmos. I have a deep and abiding belief in man’s potential to grow and learn, to plumb the depths of his own being and to learn the secret songs that orchestrate the universe. We live in a transitional era of profound pain and tragic identity quest, but the agony of our age is the labor pain of rebirth.”
It is critical to establish a new narrative for the Afghan people that will promote the rights of all natives around the world as a new standard for the West.
This can be accomplished by enforcing the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples which was adopted by the UN in 2007. The UN describes it as setting "an important standard for the treatment of indigenous peoples that will undoubtedly be a significant tool towards eliminating human rights violations against the planet’s 370 million indigenous people and assisting them in combating discrimination and marginalization."

Gas prices dispute may drive Turkey to cancel contract with Russia

TODAY’S ZAMAN, İSTANBUL

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yıldız

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yıldız has said that if Russia does not respond to Turkey’s demands to reduce natural gas prices, Turkey plans to terminate the contract it has with its northeastern neighbor.

Speaking to reporters in Ankara on Thursday, Yıldız, in response to a question regarding natural gas prices, which have increased by 39 percent in the last two-and-a-half years, said: “We are going to take a close look at the contracts on the purchase of all raw essentials that are soon to expire. The agreement for the Russia-Turkey Western Pipeline is one of those contracts that need to be looked over again, and if we do not receive the discount we are expecting, it will be terminated.” Yıldız previously spoke on the issue in March when he said: “We definitely understand the conditions the producer countries are in. However, it is normal for us to expect a reduction in natural gas prices,” noting that Turkey wanted to discuss the oil-indexed natural gas price to find other solutions to determine the cost. He also said the two countries should move towards coming up with a structure that gives priority to strategic cooperation and trade. Turkey has been persistent in its demands since Gazprom, Russia’s biggest natural gas company, which meets 67 percent of Turkey’s requirements, reduced the price of the natural gas it was selling to the Italian Edison Company, which filed a lawsuit last November at the Court of Arbitration in Stockholm against Promgas, a company jointly owned by Gazprom and Italy’s Eni. The suit called for a reduction in the price of Russian gas in a long-term contract, and Gazprom agreed to cut its gas prices for Italy’s Edison in July. Gazprom confirmed that the dispute had been resolved since it would not be a major loss for Gazprom as Edison does not buy more than 2 billion cubic meters from the Russian company. The agreement between Turkey and Russia on the transfer of natural gas via the Russia-Turkey Western Pipeline will expire at the end of 2011, and Gazprom’s deal with Edison seems to have complicated its negotiations with larger gas consumers like Turkey.

State Dept’s Robert Blake Opens Mouth and Hillary’s Voice Comes Out

 

 

[The man spends his time selling Western hallucinations to the Asian audiences, knowing that everything he promises is dependent upon American military pacification of Central and Southeast Asia.  He sells "Silk Road Pipe Dreams," like TAPI and Afghan/Pakistani trade agreements, including India, at a time when Pakistani and US forces are about to come to blows over American accusations and scapegoating of Pakistan.  Lies are compounded by even greater lies---and he describes his delusional scenario as a great "Vision."]

Extend Afghanistan- Pakistan trade agreement to India: US

The Obama [ Images ] Administration on Wednesday stressed on the need to extend an Afghanistan- Pakistan transit trade agreement to India [ Images ], asserting this will transform the economic dynamics of the region.

“Opening transit trade to India would be transformative, because India is going to be such an important economic anchor for the region in the 21st century,” Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert Blake [ Images ] said.

“The Indian and Pakistani commerce secretaries have been engaged in very important talks over the last several months to try to increase the volume of direct trade between their two countries that goes across the Wagah border,” Blake said in his remarks at a seminar on ‘Looking Ahead: US-India Strategic Relations and the Trans-Pacific Century’ at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University.

Referring to the ‘New Silk Road’ vision of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton [ Images ], Blake said this is a shared commitment to promote private-sector investment, increase regional trade and transit and foster a network of linkages throughout the region to build up the Afghan private sector and create a stable and prosperous Afghanistan within a stable and prosperous region.

“The Afghan government put forward a vision for its economic future based on increased private sector investment and expanded regional trade and integration,” he said.

“This vision builds on many efforts already underway. For example, Afghanistan and Pakistan have agreed to a transit trade agreement and to implement that and extend it to Central Asia,” Blake said.

“Ultimately, everyone hopes transit trade to India can be opened as well so that products from Afghanistan or from any of the Central Asian countries could transit through Pakistan and into India, Bangladesh and even beyond,” he said.

Blake said another very important priority is to try to expand regional energy infrastructure.

“Already, with the leadership of President Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan, the countries of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan and Pakistan and India have made quite important progress on the TAPI pipeline, which would bring natural gas from the fields of Turkmenistan to the energy markets of India, which, again, are growing very rapidly,” he said.

“It would also bring very important transit revenues for Afghanistan and Pakistan,” he added. The International Afghanistan Conference in Bonn on December 5, 2011, will be a key opportunity for the government of Afghanistan, its neighbours and the broader international community to address how the international community can strengthen economic cooperation to comprehensively address the opportunities the New Silk Road presents, he noted.

“Just as India will be an anchor of the New Silk Road vision, an India more integrated with the markets of the Asia-Pacific and one more engaged in Asia-Pacific security issues will benefit the region and Asian multilateral fora,” Blake said.

This might entail India seeking an increased role in the East Asia Summit, elevating and further deepening its interaction with ASEAN, and developing further political relations with East Asia that match India’s vibrant trade and investment growth in the region, he added.

Image: Robert Blake |  Photohgraph: Reuters

Karzai says Pakistan fomenting instability

Agencies

President Hamid Karzai at a news conference on December 20, 2009 in Kabul, Afghanistan. File photo

KABUL/PESHAWAR - Afghan President Hamid Karzai, long a staunch advocate of peace talks with Taliban, on Wednesday questioned whether the insurgent group was able to seek a political settlement and blamed Pakistan for fomenting instability, as Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said Pakistan was a part of the Afghan solution and any effort to address this issue without it would not be productive.
Karzai took a swipe at Pakistan, saying it was clear the Taliban leadership was not independent enough to make its own decisions about how it conducted the war, and suggesting talks with Islamabad instead. “During our three-year efforts for peace, the Taliban has martyred our religious ulema (leaders), tribal elders, women, children, old and young,” Karzai was quoted as saying in a statement issued by his office. “By killing (Burhanuddin) Rabbani, they showed they are not able to take decisions. Now, the question is (should we seek) peace with who, with which people?”
Hundreds of Rabbani’s supporters protested in Kabul on Tuesday against his killing, chanting “death to Pakistan, death to the Taliban” and demanding the government scrap plans to hold dialogue with the insurgents. Preliminary investigations into Rabbani’s killing, presented to Karzai by the country’s intelligence chiefs on Tuesday, said the attack was plotted outside Afghanistan and the Taliban’s powerful Quetta Shura may have been involved.
Karzai said Afghanistan’s efforts to improve ties with Pakistan had not been reciprocated. “Pakistan did nothing to destroy terrorist strongholds, allowing them to train in its territory,” he said. “And now, if the Taliban is being used… by the ISI, then Afghanistan has to talk with Pakistan and not the Taliban,” he added. Speaking at a dinner hosted by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Masud Kausar in his honour here, Prime Minister Gilani said Pakistan supported the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process.
However, such a process should not destabilise Pakistan, he said. Gilani said that Pakistan had its own interest in the region which it would protect at all costs.

America’s Foreign Policy Fiasco

By Patrick Seale

Barack Obama’s once promising foreign policy has been undermined by short-sighted support for Israel and muddled objectives in Afghanistan.

• US Foreign Policy After Bin Laden
• Chinese Foreign Policy After Hu
• Grimm Foreign Policy?
• India’s Foreign Policy Tightrope
• Has US Turned Afghanistan Corner?

US President Barack Obama is piling up the foreign policy disasters. In at least three areas crucial for world peace and US interests – Arab-Israel tensions, Afghanistan-Pakistan and Yemen-Somalia – he’s pursuing a course that can only be described as foolhardy. Indeed, the anger and hate towards the United States that he’s generating could take a generation to dispel.

Obama’s abject surrender to Israel on the Palestine question has shocked much of the world and gravely damaged the United States’ standing among Arabs and Muslims. In what is seen by many as an effort to court the Jewish vote at next year’s presidential election, Obama has thrown into reverse the policy of outreach to the Muslim world that he expressed so eloquently in his 2009 Cairo speech. If he’s now driven to use the US veto at the UN Security Council to block theapplication of a Palestinian state for UN membership, he will have been defeated by the very forces of Islamophobia he once hoped to tame.

Obama’s policy in Afghanistan is equally perverse. On the one hand, he seems to want to draw the Taliban into negotiations. But on the other, some of his army chiefs and senior diplomats apparently want to destroy the Taliban first. This is hardly a policy likely to bring the insurgents to the table. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Ryan Crocker, the new US ambassador to Kabul, actually said that the conflict should continue until more of the Taliban are killed.  Who, one wonders, is in charge of US policy?

In a message on the occasion of the Eid at the end of Ramadan, Mullah Muhammad Omar, leader of the Afghan Taliban, seemed to hint at his readiness for a comprehensive negotiation. ‘Every legitimate option can be considered,’ he said,’ in order to reach the goal of an independent Islamic regime in Afghanistan.’ He urged foreign powers to withdraw their troops ‘immediately’ in order to achieve a lasting solution to the problem. In a gesture to his local opponents, he stressed that the Taliban didn’t wish to monopolize power and that all ethnicities would participate in a ‘real Islamic regime acceptable to all the people of the country.’

Surely the United States and its allies should respond positively to this message? A conference in Bonn next December is due to review NATO’s war in Afghanistan – a war that seems closer to being lost than won. About 25,000 soldiers reportedly deserted the Afghan armed services in the first six months of this year because they had lost faith in the Hamid Karzai government’s ability to protect them and their families. Coalition troops are due to withdraw their troops by the end of 2014. Might there not be an argument for an immediate offer of negotiation together with a pledge of an earlier withdrawal?  It is, after all, far from clear what strategic interests, if any, the West is defending in Afghanistan.

The subject is of considerable urgency since the US counter-insurgency strategy is in real trouble. In July, Ahmad Wali Karzai, Karzai’s powerful brother, was shot dead in Kandahar. In August, the Taliban attacked the British Council in Kabul. On September 10, a truck packed with explosives killed five people and wounded 77 US troops at a NATO military base south-west of Kabul – the highest injury toll of foreign forces in a single incident in the 10-year war. On September 13, insurgents staged a 20 hour-long assault on the US embassy and ISAF headquarters in the heart of Kabul – supposedly the best protected perimeter in the whole country. And on September 20, Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the High Peace Council, was assassinated.

Rabbani, an ethnic Tajik, was charged by Karzai with the task of seeking peace with the Taliban. He seems to have made little or no progress. He was a mujahidin leader in the war against the Soviets in the 1980s, then president of Afghanistan from 1992 to 1996, before being ousted by the Taliban. He then became a leading figure of the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras who fought the Islamists until the Taliban were driven from power by the US invasion of 2001. Although it’s not yet clear who is responsible for Rabbani’s murder, suspicion has fallen on the Pakistan-backed Haqqani network.

Pakistan has a vital strategic interest in Afghanistan. It wants to keep Indian influence out of a country that it considers its strategic depth. It suspects Karzai of being in league with India, and would appear to prefer a Taliban-governed Afghanistan to Karzai’s US-backed regime. In any event, Rabbani’s death robs Karzai of a key ally and strains his relations with Pakistan. It could be a step towards a civil war if no early attempt is made to engage the Taliban.

Now entering its 11th year – at the colossal cost to the US taxpayer of about $120 billion a year – the Afghan war has drained US resources, dangerously undermined the Pakistani state and threatened to destroy the US-Pakistani alliance. Addressing the US Senate in mid-September, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, accused Pakistan’s army and the ISI, the powerful military intelligence service, of being in league with the Haqqani network.  By using ‘violent extremism as an instrument of policy’, Mullen said, Pakistan was undermining the American military effort and jeopardizing the US-Pakistani strategic partnership.

Pakistan’s response was not long in coming. Speaking on the BBC programme The World Tonight on September 22, Gen. Asad Durani, a former head of the ISI, described US-Pakistan relations as in a state of ‘low-intensity conflict.’ Pakistan should back the United States’ opponents in Afghanistan, he said, if the US continued drone strikes against targets in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, in their hunt for the Taliban and their supporters, US special forces mount frequent night raids in Afghanistan, such as the one on September 2 that killed Sabar Lal , a wealthy Afghan, in his home in Jalalabad. According to press reports, the Americans broke in, handcuffed and blindfolded him and his guests, then took him out on the veranda and killed him. He had fought the Soviets in Afghanistan, spent five years in Guantánamo, then built a new life for himself and his family. Clearly this wasn’t enough to allay US suspicions of his links with Islamic militants, with US officials claiming he was an al-Qaeda affiliate.

In Yemen and the Horn of Africa, the United States’ increasing resort to drones, with their inevitable toll of civilian deaths, has enraged the local populations and driven recruits into the arms of the militants. According to the Washington Post, the Obama administration has used CIA-operated drones to carry out lethal attacks against al-Qaida in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. The drone programme has killed more than 2,000 militants and civilians since 2001.

Surely, now is as good a time as any to ask whether US policy hasn’t created more terrorists than the CIA has managed to kill? Would it not be better if the United States were simply to declare victory in Afghanistan – and indeed in all the other places where its Special Forces operate – bring its troops home as soon as possible, and turn its attention to tending the wounds in its own broken society?

Patrick Seale is a British writer on the Middle East and author of ‘The Struggle for Syria’ and ‘Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East’. He has reported for Reuters and The Observer among other publications.

Photo Credit: White House

‘Islamic revolution in Central Asia not possible’

Asian Development Bank Funds Northern Distribution Network, Allegedly for Humanitarian Reasons

[Once again, the Asian Development Bank is supporting the American war plans for Afghanistan and beyond, into Central Asia (SEE:  Asian Devel. Bank Funding Uzbek Project To Upgrade Ferghana Valley Highway).  In the previous support, the ADB provided the cash to modernize the remaining Uzbek highway system, which leads into the Ferghana Valley, the next target in the Imperial war plans.  The new money for the electrification of Uzbek railway section leading into Mazar i-Sharif, Afghanistan, is intended to supply military equipment and war materiel--NOT "humanitarian relief goods" or "exports of their main commodities" as is claimed in the report below.  Apparently, the ADB, like the UN, is just another arm of the US government.]

Why did US/NATO Go To Such Trouble To Avoid Taking the NDN Through Turkestan?

ADB funded Uzbekistan rail project to accelerate regional trade

ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is extending $100 million to upgrade a key railway in Uzbekistan which will stimulate local growth and boost regional trade.

ADB’s Board of Directors has approved the loan for the Railway Electrification Project which will finance the electrification of a 140-kilometer stretch of rail line between Marakand in Samarkand province and Karshi in Kashkadarya province, says a press release received here from Manila,Philippines here on Thursday.

The railway is part of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Corridor 6 that runs north to south, linking Europe, through Central Asia, to the Middle East andSouth Asia. In Uzbekistan, the route carries about 10 million tons of freight annually, including about 1.6 million tons of humanitarian relief goods for Afghanistan—more than half its imports.

The northern part of the railway is electrified, but the southern part, including the section from Marakand to Karshi, uses diesel locomotives which are slower and carry less freight. In addition, passenger and freight traffic has been growing steadily, putting existing facilities under strain and creating bottlenecks.

“This upgrade will improve regional connectivity along a vital transit route, cut transport costs, lessen greenhouse gas emissions and boost trade,” said Zheng Wu, a Transport Specialist at ADB’s Central and West Asia Department.

The project runs through remote, underdeveloped districts in the two provinces and better transport links will allow them to step up exports of their main commodities including cotton, horticulture products, marble, oil and gas.

The ongoing upgrade of the line, including a separate section being cofinanced by the Government of Japan, will also allow Afghanistan to take advantage of the ADB-funded Hairatan to Mazar-e-Sharif railway, which provides a critical link to Uzbekistan and beyond.

Along with physical improvements, which include an overhead power line, traction substations, modern signaling and telecommunication equipment, the project will provide training and other support to state-run rail operator, Uzbekistan Temir Yullari, to manage the new system. ADB is the lead development partner in Uzbekistan’s rail transport sector and the project builds on two earlier railway modernization and rehabilitation investments.

The Government of Uzbekistan and Uzbekistan Temir Yullari will provide counterpart funds equivalent to $76 million for a total investment cost of $176 million. The state rail operator will execute the project which is due for completion by March 2016.

 

Copyright PPI (Pakistan Press International), 2011

‘International forces behind Dir, Chitral attacks’

By Qaiser Butt

A view of the Lowari Tunnel in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa situated between Dir and Chitral district. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD: While the foreign office remains firm in its stance that Pakistan has been forced to retaliate against Afghan militant attacks, a senior official of the defence ministry has claimed that foreign forces in Afghanistan are behind recent cross border attacks in Pakistan.

According to the official, international forces raised a Coalition Special Operation Force (CSOF) to ‘directly and indirectly attack security forces and civilians in the bordering towns of Pakistan’.

He further told The Express Tribune that Islamabad had filed formal complaints with the US and Nato against armed attacks on its security forces in Dir and Chitral. “We are waiting for their reply,” he added while requesting anonymity.

American news website the Long War Journal in a report last week confirmed that the CSOF was fighting against the Taliban in Afganistan’s Nuristan province – an area mostly under the control of the Taliban and other allied fighting groups.

Furthermore, noted strategy expert Brig Shaukat Qadir told The Express Tribune that the CSOF, which, he said, was established by the US to sponsor violence in Pakistan, was used by foreign forces to attack Pakistani bordering towns.

Meanwhile, a senior official in the foreign affairs ministry has confirmed that several rockets were recently fired as ‘retaliatory action’ on militants by Pakistani security forces in the Afghan province of Kunar.

The official made it clear that the attacks were part of retaliatory action against the militants who in the last two months have been constantly attacking Pakistani security forces and defence installations in Dir and Chitral from Kunar.

While the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government has repeatedly blamed US and Nato forces in Afghanistan for sponsoring militant attacks on civilian and security forces in Dir and Chitral, the foreign affairs ministry refrains from accusing foreign troops.

“We are aware that a third party is directly involved in anti-Pakistan violence in our tribal regions,” the source said while requesting anonymity.

Ruling out Afghanistan

“Islamabad is aware that the Afghan government is not responsible for the border violations,” the foreign office source said, adding that a militarily fragile country would not attack Pakistan on its own.

He also referred to the recent statement by the Afghan foreign ministry’s spokesman regarding the ongoing tug-of-war between Pakistan and the United States. He said Kabul was perturbed by the development. “The Afghan foreign ministry’s deputy spokesman Dr Faramarz Tamanna said that Afghanistan welcomes any regional and international pressure on Pakistan but believes that a deterioration of relationship between America and Pakistan can’t help regional peace”.

Pakistan’s foreign office believed that peace between Islamabad and Kabul was much more in the interest of Afghanistan. He said that after the recapture of the Waigal district in Nuristan by Afghani Taliban in March this year, foreign forces in Afghanistan sponsored attacks on the Pakistani bordering towns.

Published in The Express Tribune

Pakistan will be forced to retaliate, CIA chief told

By Kamran Yousaf

” Pakistan has the capability to give a ‘befitting response’ to any attempts by the US to invade the tribal areas,” Senate Standing Committee on Defence chairman Javed Ashraf Qazi.

ISLAMABAD: The effort to ensure that diplomacy and calmer heads prevail at a time of fragile relations between Pakistan and the United States is on. However, the effort notwithstanding, Islamabad has made it clear to Washington that, if it comes down to it, Pakistan will be forced to retaliate if American forces attempt to launch a unilateral strike on the country’s tribal belt.

The message was personally delivered by Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) Chief Lt General Ahmed Shuja Pasha to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief General David Petraeus during his recent trip to Washington, said an official familiar with the development.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Express Tribune that Pasha had informed his counterpart that the Pakistani people will not tolerate any US misadventure and in that case the government will be left with no other option but to retaliate.

Senior ISI members, the official said, had felt ‘betrayed’ by the blunt assessment of the US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen that the spy agency had links with the Afghan Taliban-allied Haqqani network. In a stinging remark, Mullen accused ISI of supporting one of the most feared Afghan insurgent groups to target US forces stationed in Afghanistan.

(Read: The political economy of confrontation)

But, in a closed-door meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Defence on Tuesday, a senior ISI official said that the US was simply attempting to make Pakistan the ‘scapegoat’ to cover up its failures in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Sore wounds from the May 2 US raid in Abbottabad that killed Osama bin Laden were also reopened in the meeting when a lawmaker, quoting an ISI official, told the parliamentary panel that Pakistan will not tolerate any unilateral strike on its soil by US forces to target the alleged safe havens of the Haqqani network.

“We cannot be caught off guard this time,” the official told lawmakers, referring to the raid that embarrassed the country’s powerful security establishment about its ignorance of the world’s most wanted man’s whereabouts. “This time, we will give them a surprise if they (Americans) dare,” he said.

Speaking to reporters, committee chair Lt General (retd) Javed Ashraf Qazi confirmed that lawmakers had voiced serious concern over threats emanating from Washington. Qazi, who also served as ISI chief in the 90s, insisted that Pakistan had the capability to give a ‘befitting response’ to any attempts by the US to invade the tribal areas.

Meetings continue

A frenzy of meetings continued, meanwhile, in Islamabad. US Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter is reported to have met Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir, for the second time in 24 hours, and later Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari.

The president also met Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani Zardari to discuss the situation.

A statement released by the media office of the President House said that the two leaders also discussed the all parties conference scheduled for September 29.

Reposing confidence in the ability of the democratic leadership to stand united at all times that call for unity, the president expressed hope that the country’s political leadership will be able to reach a consensus, the statement said.

Over in Washington, US Special Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan Marc Grossman phoned the Pakistan Envoy to the US Hussain Haqqani in a bid to cool down the heated diplomatic state between the two countries.

Grossman said that the US and Pakistan were united on a wide range of issues, even though they differed over the Haqqani network.

We are funding the enemy: US congressman

Back in Washington, American congressmen were presented with an anti-Pakistan bill called the “Pakistan Accountability Act”, introduced by Congressman Ted Poe from Texas who is an outspoken critic of Pakistan.

“This so-called ally [Pakistan] continues to take billions in US aid, while at the same time supports militants who attack us,” US Congressman Ted Poe.

“This legislation will freeze all US aid to Pakistan with the exception of funds that are designated to help secure nuclear weapons,” says a transcript available on the Congressman’s website.

Citing Mullen’s statement on Pakistan supporting the Haqqani network, Poe said that, “Since the discovery of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan has proven to be disloyal, deceptive and a danger to the US. This so-called ally continues to take billions in US aid, while at the same time supports militants who attack us. The US must immediately freeze all aid to Pakistan. Pakistan has made it painfully obvious that they will continue their policy of duplicity and deceit by pretending to be our ally while simultaneously promoting violent extremism. By continuing to provide aid to Pakistan, we are funding the enemy, endangering Americans and undermining our efforts in the region,” he said.

Meanwhile, the prime minister, in an interview with Reuters, also struck a defiant tone – clearly warning the US on Tuesday to stop accusing it of playing a double game with militants.

“The negative messaging, naturally that is disturbing my people,” Gilani said. “If there is messaging that is not appropriate to our friendship, then naturally it is extremely difficult to convince my public. Therefore they should be sending positive messages.”

He implied that the US’ recent ratcheting up of pressure on Pakistan reflected frustration with the war in Afghanistan. “Certainly they expected more results from Afghanistan, which they have not been able to achieve as yet,” he said. “They have not achieved what they visualized.”

(With additional reporting by Huma Imtiaz in Washington)

Published in The Express Tribune

Congress will be supportive of any action that the (US military) experts deem necessary

Use of bombers in Pakistan under study: US senator

I would say when it comes to defending American troops, you don’t want to limit yourself: Senator Lindsey Graham.—AFP

WASHINGTON: Support is growing in the US Congress for expanding American military action in Pakistan beyond drone strikes already used to target militants in Pakistani territory, a senior Republican US senator says.

The comments by Senator Lindsey Graham, an influential Republican voice on foreign policy and military affairs, follow remarks by the top US military officer, Admiral Mike Mullen, accusing Pakistan last week of supporting the militant Haqqani network’s Sept 13 attack on the US embassy in Kabul.

Graham said in an interview on Tuesday that US lawmakers might support military options beyond the drone strikes that have been going on for years inside Pakistani territory.

Those options may include using US bomber planes within Pakistan.

The South Carolina Republican said he did not advocate sending US ground troops into Pakistan.“I would say when it comes to defending American troops, you don’t want to limit yourself,” Graham said. “This is not a boots-on-the-ground engagement — I’m not talking about that, but we have a lot of assets beyond drones.”

“A perfect world … would be Afghan, Pakistan and (US and Nato) coalition forces working jointly on both sides of border to deny safe havens, inside of Afghanistan and on the other side,” in Pakistan’s western tribal regions from which the Haqqani network and other militants are believed to operate, Graham said.

Graham said US lawmakers will think about stepping up the military pressure. “If people believe it’s gotten to the point that that is the only way really to protect our interests I think there would be a lot of support,” Graham said.

The Haqqani network is allied with Afghanistan’s Taliban and is believed to have close links to Al Qaeda. It fights US and Nato forces in eastern Afghanistan, operating out of bases in Pakistan’s North Waziristan.

US drone aircraft in recent years have targeted mostly al Qaeda figures rather than Haqqani militants.

PROTECT LIVES

Increased US military action on Pakistani soil, including the idea of US soldiers crossing the porous border from Afghanistan, would be deeply unpopular in Pakistan. Pakistan viewed the US military raid in May that killed Al Qaeda chief Osama in Laden in a Pakistani garrison town as a grievous breach of its sovereignty.

“Don’t underestimate how we feel about those who try to kill our troops,” Graham said in the interview.

“My belief is that Congress will be supportive of any action that the (US military) experts deem necessary to protect lives of American soldiers” in Afghanistan.

The tense ties between Pakistan and the United States worsened last week after Mullen, the chairman of the US military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the Haqqani network as a “veritable arm” of Pakistan’s ISI spy agency.

Graham, known as a hawk, said on Sunday that the United States must consider all options “including defending our troops” in confronting Pakistani support for militant networks active in Afghanistan.

Such remarks from the US Congress, where patience has worn thin with Pakistan, have intensified speculation that the United States might resort to another cross-border raid such as the one that killed bin Laden, intensify drone attacks in Pakistan’s lawless tribal regions or send in bomber planes to attack militant hide-outs.

Lawmakers are proposing to restrict US aid to Pakistan by placing more rigorous conditions under which Pakistan, which possesses nuclear arms but is desperately poor, can access American military and economic assistance.

The United States has been frustrated by what it sees as Pakistan’s unwillingness to stamp out militants like the Haqqanis and the Taliban in Afghanistan, where US forces have been engaged in a war for the past decade.—Reuters

CIA Death Squad Responsible For Dumping 35 ‘Dead Zetas’ On Veracruz Highway

DEADLINE LIVE EXCLUSIVE: CIA Death Squad

Responsible For Dumping 35 ‘Dead Zetas’ On Veracruz Highway

 by supermario

Last July, DeadlineLive.info reported that the CIA death squad known as ‘Los Matazetas’ (Killers of Zetas) was going to start a war against Los Zetas in the state of Veracruz.

By Mario Andrade
DeadlineLive.info
September 26, 2011

Last week, motorists in Veracruz, Mexico witnessed a gruesome scene where over a dozen armed men wearing face hoods created a road block and dumped 35 dead bodies at a busy highway. The armed men used two stolen commercial trucks to transport the bodies, then cleverly left the trucks and the bodies beneath an underpass in the town of Boca de Rio. The armed ‘sicarios’ then left a banner stating that the bodies were of members of Los Zetas and drove away with no police or military presence to stop them. Each dead body had the letter ‘Z’ carved.

Mexican authorities have recently announced that the criminal organization responsible for the massacre is the Jalisco Cartel (New Generation). The ‘new generation’ Jalisco Drug Cartel is a subsidiary branch of the CIA-backed Sinaloa Drug Cartel, headed by Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman –a man who has smuggled cocaine into the U.S. onboard CIA rendition aircraft, and a man who according to Vicente Zambada’s federal court testimony, is a DEA operative.

Last July, DeadlineLive.info reported that a CIA death squad known as ‘Los Matazetas’ had announced their intentions to remove Los Zetas from the state of Veracruz. Los Matazetas is a death squad created by the new generation Jalisco Drug Cartel. In recent months, the CIA-backed Sinaloa Drug Cartel removed the original members of the Jalisco Cartel and placed their own operatives in the region in order to prevent a takeover by the Knights Templar, Los Zetas, or the Beltran-Leyva syndicate (Barbie Valdez’s previous criminal organization).

Yesterday, the death squad known as Los Matazetas posted a video on Youtube (also posted at the websiteBlog del Narco) describing how they plan to eliminate Los Zetas from the state of Veracruz and eventually, from Mexico.

In the video, the man speaking at the center of the table uses sophisticated Spanish vocabulary –unlike the typical street drug gang language used in most execution videos. The spokesman probably has a university graduate level degree (master’s degree or higher). His tone of voice and vocabulary is similar to that of a university professor or a high-ranking politician.

It is important to mention that in 1993, in Colombia, the CIA and U.S. special forces (Delta Force) created the death squad known as Los PEPES, which was acronym for people who are persecuted by Pablo Escobar. Los PEPES used guerrilla warfare tactics to eliminate Pablo Escobar and his drug cartel operatives. Much like Los Matazetas, Los PEPES used similar messages and psy-ops, painting themselves as Robin Hoodstrying to protect the average people from certain evil drug lords. Though in reality, they are just eliminating the competing criminal organizations that are not affiliated with the federation of cartels, led by the CIA-Sinaloa alliance. Many of the members of Los Matazetas and the New Generation Jalisco Cartel are former operatives of CIA asset Ignacio ‘Nacho’ Coronel’s organization - the man who was in charge of the CIA rendition flights that transported cocaine into the United States.

Below is the video and a Deadline Live exclusive verbatim translation of it:

Video: Narcocomunicado de Los Mata-Zetas | Blog…, posted with vodpod

Good afternoon.

At 16:00 hours of this Saturday 24 of September of 2011, we issue the following announcement.

To the federal, state and municipal authorities, and society in general.

As you may already know, the public safety problems in our country have now began to transcend all political, economic and military sectors, affecting those who are the most vulnerable due to the circumstances created by their own way of life.

We make mention of this so it can be understood what our role is in this problem. Due to our ethical values, we forbid our organization to engage in extortion, kidnapping, robbery, intimidation, or any other activity that negatively affects the moral fabric, family values or the peace of mind (of the population).

Motivated by personal experiences of those of us who now form part of this force, which constitutes the enforcing arm of the people and for the people, our only interest and objective is the cartel known as Los Zetas. Thus, we respect the armed forces, which we understand that they cannot act outside the limits of the law like we do.

We condemn the bad public servants, whom with their support, they allow this segment of society continue to harm mainly the communities in the port of Veracruz, Boca del Río, Cardel, Jalapa, Poza Rica, Tuxpan, Panuco, Córdoba, Orizaba, Perote, San Andrés Tuxtla, Martínez de la Torre, Minatitlán, Acayucan, Alvarado, Coatzacoalcos and other municipalities in the state of Veracruz.

We do not elude our responsibilities; however, only by leveling the plane field (fighting in their turf) can Los Zetas be eradicated at the root. As a result, we ask of these public servants to stop supporting them; for the armed forces to be certain that our own objective is to annihilate Los Zetas; and for the society in general to be sure and to trust that we, Los Matazetas do not kidnap or extort, and we will never go against our national heritage. We respect federal and local government institutions in their fight against organized crime. We understand their position of not collaborating with us, which obligates us to operate clandestinely but always for the good of the Mexican people.

We are anonymous and faceless warriors, but we are proud to be Mexicans. Let us not fall in the trap of foreign enemies, who are experts at delivering betrayal, deceit, discredit, and malice, shielding themselves in their so-called ‘respect of God and democracy.’

Again, we reiterate to the local and federal authorities that our fight is against Los Zetas, and if with our recent acts (the dumping of the dead Zetas on the street), we offendeded society, the people of Mexico and the federal entities, we would like to offer our apologies on behalf of our entire group.

What we intended to do was to show the people of Veracruz that these individuals are not invincible. Thus, we ask you not to fall victim of them. Do not continue to allow yourselves to be extorted by them.

Everyone has his own fears and struggles. We are all one heart.

Thank you.

 

 

Not A Single Afghan Battalion Fights Without U.S. Help

• By Spencer Ackerman  

Updated 2 p.m.

Ten years of war. Two years of an accelerated effort to train Afghans to take over that fight, at an annual cost of $6 billion. And not a single Afghan army battalion can operate without assistance from U.S. or allied units.

That was the assessment made by the officer responsible for training those Afghan soldiers, Lt. Gen. William Caldwell. Out of approximately 180 Afghan National Army battalions, only two operate “independently.” Except that “independently,” in Caldwell’s National Training Mission-Afghanistan command, means something different than “independently” does in the States.

Those two “independent” battalions still require U.S. support for their maintenance, logistics and medical systems,” Caldwell admitted when Pentagon reporters pressed him on Monday morning.

“Today, we haven’t developed their systems to enable them to do that yet,” Caldwell said.

 

Building up foreign armies isn’t easy. During 2008’s battle for Basra, Iraqi forces relied heavily on U.S. and British support — and still saw more than a thousand desertions. That was four years after then Maj. Gen. David Petraeus took over the training of the Iraqi military.

For the past two years, Caldwell’s overseen a big push to expand, professionalize and train Afghan soldiers and cops. Caldwell has gotten bodies into uniforms: the Afghan army and police total 305,516 today, up from 196,508 last December, and they’re “on track,” Caldwell says, to reach 352,000 by November 2012.

Caldwell praised Afghan police officers during the Taliban’s audacious attack on Kabul earlier this month. Two separate cops “literally did a bear hug” on separate suicide bombers in different places around the city, sacrificing themselves in the process. “Policemen were doing heroic deeds,” Caldwell said.

But most of Afghanistan’s men in uniform can’t read at a kindergarten level, much less understand the instrument panels on a helicopter or the serial numbers on their rifles.

That’s one reason why it’ll be years before the U.S. takes its training wheels off the Afghan soldiers’ bikes. Although the Obama administration plans to turn the war over to forces Caldwell trains by 2014, Caldwell told Danger Room in June that the Afghans will need U.S. training until as late as 2017.

That is, if attrition doesn’t get in the way. Caldwell expressed alarm that 1.4 percent of Afghan cops and 2.3 percent of Afghan soldiers walk off the job every month, saying that if “left unchecked [attrition] could undo much of the progress made to date.” Yet last week, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta testified that attrition rates are “as much as three percent per month.

Asked by Danger Room about the increase, Caldwell simply said that the “goal we’ve set” is a 1.4 monthly attrition level across both forces. In the Afghan National Army, attrition “has been steady over the last year. We have not seen the decline,” Caldwell said.

Then there’s the nagging issue of human rights. “U.S. officials have for years been aware of credible allegations that newly-installed Kandahar police chief [Brigadier General Abdul] Raziq and his menparticipated in a cold-blooded massacre of civilians,” writes Matthieu Aikins, in a gut-wrenching new expose for The Atlantic. Yet Raziq has been showered with cash and official praises from the highest level of the American-led coalition in Afghanistan.

Caldwell has instituted an additional 18 hours of training on respecting Afghans’ rights into the eight-week course that the typical would-be Afghan cop takes. But Caldwell doesn’t train every Afghan cop. Members of a program called the Afghan Local Police — founded in 2010 by Petraeus to recruit auxiliaries against the Taliban — has been implicated in “killings, rape, arbitrary detention, abductions, forcible land grabs, and illegal raids by irregular armed groups,” according to a Human Rights Watch report issued this month.

Special Operations Forces are responsible for turning these groups into respectable units. When Danger Room asked if it was time for Caldwell to take over that training, Caldwell said, “We’ve not been asked to at this point… If there is a request for us to help and become engaged in that, we obviously would. But at this point, I think the special forces element that has the responsibility for that clearly sees and understands what that report says. We all take that very seriously.”

With insurgents assassinating the man in charge of negotiating a peace deal, the Afghan security forces are the backbone of the U.S.’ long-term plan for Afghan security. During his Senate testimony on Thursday, Panetta called their development “one of the most notable successes” of the war.

Yet not only can no Afghan army battalion operate without U.S. aid, the U.S. has been purchasing them a lot of creature comforts. Caldwell said that his command recently stopped buying air conditioning units for Afghan barracks, replacing them with fans instead — part of an effort to pare down the $6 billion that it costs to keep the Afghan security forces going. Caldwell said he expects that number to drop — in part because someday Afghanistan won’t be ravaged by insurgency (maybe, hopefully) — but he doesn’t know how much it’ll drop by, or by when.

“I’m still very realistic about the challenges out there,” Caldwell said.

Update: I misheard Caldwell during today’s Pentagon briefing when he discussed the goal he’s set for monthly attrition rates. Thanks to his public-affairs officer, Lt. Col. Shawn Stroud, for alerting me to my mistake.

Photo: Flickr/DVIDSHUB

Civilians accuse NATO of massacre in Sirte raids

• THE AUSTRALIAN
  

THE civilians pouring out of the besieged city of Sirte accused NATO of genocide yesterday as rebel forces called in reinforcements and prepared for a fresh assault on Muammar Gaddafi’s home town.

Long lines of civilian vehicles were leaving after a night of NATO air attacks on the town. Rebel forces fighting for the National Transitional Council added artillery and mortar fire.

The people leaving the town, many looking scared, said conditions inside Sirte were disastrous. They made claims which, if verified, are a challenge for NATO – which operates under a UN mandate to protect civilians – saying the NATO bombing raids hit homes, schools and hospitals.

“It was worse than awful,” said Riab Safran, 28, as his car was searched by rebel fighters outside Sirte. His family had slept on the beach because the houses were being bombed, he said. “They hit all kinds of buildings – schools, hospitals,” he said.

He could not distinguish between the NATO bombs and the rebels shells, he said, but believed it was a NATO bomb that destroyed his home on Saturday.

NATO said its warplanes bombed a number of military targets, including a rocket launcher, artillery and ammunition stores.

Some of those interviewed said the Gaddafi forces were making people stay in the city. Others said residents were frightened of the rebel fighters, who were reported to be abducting women from cars trying to leave Sirte. NTC fighters denied the charges.

Residents said power and water had run out and petrol was 88 Libyan dinars ($72) a litre. The water shortage has produced an epidemic of diseases, according to medical staff at a clinic in the town of Harawa, 40km east of Sirte.

But the Gaddafi forces had supplies of ammunition, pasta, oil, flour and food, residents said. They used an open radio channel to taunt the rebels, insisting the city would never be taken.

Meanwhile, Libya’s transitional justice minister said he had imposed a measure abolishing the country’s state security, prosecution and courts, which sentenced regime opponents to prison.

At a press conference in Tripoli, Mohammed al-Alagi said he had signed the order to disband the security agencies, but it still needed approval by the NTC.

He said the order included the abolition of a special court where many opposition members were sentenced to life in prisons such as Abu Salim in Tripoli, where inmates were reportedly massacred by the Gaddafi regime.

Rebel leaders are pressing ahead with efforts to do away with some of the hated remnants of the former regime even though fighting continues and Gaddafi’s whereabouts remain unknown.

In a boost to Libya’s economy, Italian and French energy companies have begun oil production in Libya after months of civil war, a potential economic lifeline for the new government.

Officials of the transitional administration are still awaiting international action to unfreeze billions of dollars in Libya’s assets. They say the funds unfrozen so far are not enough to rebuild the country after 42 years of the Gaddafi regime.

The de facto prime minister, Mahmoud Jibril, asked the UN Security Council to lift some of the economic sanctions on Libya, but said NATO should stay until civilians were no longer being killed.

Italian energy giant Eni said yesterday it had resumed oil production in Libya. By Monday, 15 major wells had been tapped, producing 31,900 barrels of oil a day.

French energy company Total said it also started oil production in Libya last week.

Additional reporting: AP

Why did US/NATO Go To Such Trouble To Avoid Taking the NDN Through Turkmenistan?

[What demands did Turkmenistan make upon the US for permission to take the Northern Distribution Network through a narrow strip of its territory that Uzbekistan did not make in deals for right-of-way through the entire nation, from end to end?]

  Global map–elevations, interactive

[The NDN railway system follows approximately the same course as the yellow road (M-39) in the screen-shot above.  Considering that most of both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are approx. 250 meters above sea level, it is extremely strange that the US would agree to test their capabilities to the max, with every shipment going over the NDN rail lines into Uzbekistan.  Why build a rail line with very steep grades, through territory that was 1500 meters (5,000 feet) above sea level?]

SUBJECT: UZBEK RAIL: RED HOT WHEELS TO AFGHANISTAN

REF: 09 TOKYO 2590
CLASSIFIED BY: Robert McCutcheon, Econ Officer, State, Pol/Econ
Office; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
1. (C) SUMMARY. XXXXXXXXXXXX told us
that Uzbekistan Railroads is having difficulty operating freight
trains on its new Karshi-Termez line. Obsolete locomotives with
inadequate brakes result in multiple delays and wheels that glow
red hot by the time a train has completed the mountain crossing.

2. (C) On November 9 we met with XXXXXXXXXXXX. XXXXXXXXXXXX
is heavily involved XXXXXXXXXXXX in the construction and
operation of Uzbek Railroad’s new line through the mountains from
Karshi to Termez. The natural, geographically dictated routing
from Karshi to Termez is via Turkmenistan, but after independence
in 1991, the GOU made the strategic decision to reduce its
dependence on routes through now foreign territory. This new
line, partially funded by XXXXXXXXXXXX, avoids Turkmen territory but has to
contend with steep mountain grades. The first trains rolled down
the new track in early 2009.
3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX told us that there have been difficulties operating
trains over the Karshi-Termez line. Most locomotives used by Uzbek
Railroads are built to the same design as U.S. lend-lease
locomotives given to the Soviet Union in World War II. Soviet
engineers copied this design and used it to produce locomotives
that came to form a significant portion of Soviet rolling stock.
The problem with Uzbekistan’s legacy Soviet locomotives is that
they were never intended for use in mountainous terrain. They have
inadequate brakes and must be operated at slow speed. On the
descents, the brakes in all wagons are applied continuously, thus
necessitating frequent stops so that the wheels can cool. XXXXXXXXXXXX
told us that by the time trains have descended from the mountains,
the wheels are glowing red hot.

the next phase for the Karshi-Termez
rail line will be electrification. This will be accomplished in
four stages over a five-year period, with the steepest grades being electrified first. The cost is expected to be $550 million USD;
this includes provision for purchase of Chinese manufactured
electric locomotives.
6. (C) Only when the electrification program is complete will the
Karshi-Termez line be able to transport freight at full capacity.
XXXXXXXXXXXX told us he is worried, however, that the electrification
program is competing for priority within XXXXXXXXXXXX with a program to
rebuild power generation stations in Uzbekistan.

7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX told us he was appalled at how long it takes to
transport anything by rail in Uzbekistan. About 70 percent of rail
traffic is freight, but a typical train carries only half the
freight per wagon as a U.S. wagon — 50 tons instead of 100 tons.
From conversations with Uzbek engineers, XXXXXXXXXXXX said the limitation
appears to be not the trains but the quality of the steel used in
the tracks. He described the tracks as brittle and thus subject to
fracture if higher loads are transported.

View Larger Map

http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2011/09/28/7_year_sentence_sought_for_ukraines_tymoshenko/

Ukraine Seeking 7-Year Sentence for Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko

Ukraine wants jail term for former leader

Police blocked supporters of former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko in Ukraine yesterday. (Sergey Polezhaka/AFP/Getty Images)

Associated Press / September 28, 2011

KIEV – Ukrainian prosecutors asked a judge yesterday to sentence former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in prison on charges she abused her office in signing a gas import contract with Russia in 2009, Tymoshenko’s office said.

Prosecutor Liliya Frolova also asked Judge Rodion Kireyev to bar Tymoshenko from occupying government posts for three years and fine her $190,000 for the alleged damages she caused the state energy company Naftogaz, said Natasha Lysova, a spokeswoman for Tymoshenko. Prosecutors were not available for comment.

Tymoshenko stands accused of violating legal procedures when concluding the gas agreement with Moscow at a price prosecutors believe was inflated. She maintains her innocence and says the trial is an attempt by her longtime enemy, President Viktor Yanukovych, to bar her from upcoming elections as a convicted felon.

Tymoshenko was jailed during her trial on Aug. 5 on charges of contempt of court.

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