Russia loses hold on Tajikistan pivot

By M K Bhadrakumar

The simmering rivalries amongst Russia, China and the United States have begun bubbling up in Tajikistan against the backdrop of the uncertainties of the post-2014 period for regional security and stability. After months or years of secretive negotiations, Russian exasperation over Tajikistan’s foot-dragging on the renewal of the lease agreement for its military base is surfacing.

However, the Russian-Tajik entanglement is more than a family quarrel, as it underscores the complex geopolitics of the post-2014 period in Central Asia when Western troops will have withdrawn from Afghanistan but the United States would still hope to keep permanent military bases in the region.

While the US intentions to expand its strategic footprints into

Central Asia have not been a great secret to Moscow, a new factor is that China, too, is contributing unwittingly to the erosion of Russian influence in the region.

Leaving to the wolves
Russia has deployed more than 6,000 soldiers from its 201st Motorized Rifle Division in Tajikistan, spread among three garrisons in Dushanbe, Kurgan-Tube and Kulyab.

The current tussle is over the renewal of the Russian basing rights in Tajikistan, which expire in 2014. The Tajik base is a crucial template of the Russian security system in the Central Asian region and it provides the underpinning for an effective future Russian role in Afghanistan. Dushanbe demands that the base can no longer be given gratis – Russia will have to pay rent – and, secondly, that the lease be renewed only be for another 10- year period.

Unsurprisingly, Moscow is indignant that Dushanbe is dictating terms at all, when the Tajik regime is vulnerable to the fallout from Afghanistan and cannot do without the Russian troops’ protection. In the Russian eye, Dushanbe’s perceived intransigence appears doubly illogical since the Tajik economy is highly vulnerable. The remittances by the 1.5 million Tajik migrant workers in Russia account for anywhere up to half of Tajikistan’s GDP.

Russia is also upset that the Tajik government is behaving in a shifty manner, after having agreed at a meeting between the then Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and his Tajik counterpart, Emomali Rahmon, in Moscow last September to work out a 49-year lease agreement by early this year.

At any rate, the Russian narrative is that all this is attributable to the bazaar culture in Dushanbe. “Apparently, someone in this impoverished and extremely corrupt country is hell-bent on making a quick buck, and it could come either from Moscow or Washington, depending on who pays more for the right to have a military base in Tajikistan,” Alexander Khramchikhin, director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis in Moscow, wrote in a commentary featured by the Russian news agency Novosti.

These are harsh words, and the Central Asian leaderships are highly sensitive to personal criticism. Khramchikhin went on to ridicule the Tajik leadership’s notions regarding the “unlimited power of the US military”, since the US is on retreat inexorably in Afghanistan and Central Asia. He warned that the Taliban “will almost certainly return to power” in Afghanistan with the support of the Pakistani army – “perhaps with the direct involvement” of the Pakistani army – once US and NATO troops withdraw. He argued:

So, hopes for American protection make no sense whatsoever. In general, it is absurd to presume that the Americans will ever go as far as spilling the blood of their soldiers to help out [Uzbekistan President Islam] Karimov or Rakhmon. It is therefore clear that if Russian troops withdraw from Tajikistan, it will actually create a problem for Tajikistan, not Russia.

Evidently, Moscow finds it unacceptable that the US is secretly negotiating deals with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for basing facilities. Meanwhile, reports are appearing that Dushanbe might offer the Ayni airbase to the US. On Friday, a ranking member of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Dan Burton, while on a visit to Dushanbe, said after a meeting with Rahmon that Washington is considering Tajikistan as a base in the post-2014 period since it has the longest border with Afghanistan. Burton promised that the US would increase its military aid to Tajikistan in 2014. He said Tajikistan “is a key to regional processes” and plays an important role in ensuring regional security.

Things seemed to have come to a flashpoint when at a meeting of the Council of the CIS Defense Ministers in Kaliningrad last Wednesday, Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Khairulloyev maintained with a straight face that fresh negotiations on the Russian base are needed. He pleaded he hadn’t yet seen the Russian draft for the lease agreement (which was handed over quite some time back), and that Tajikistan was preparing its own draft for detailed negotiations with Moscow.

The chief of the Russian General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov, has said Moscow won’t allocate any more funds for the development of the base in Tajikistan unless a new agreement is negotiated.

Moscow has indulged in some brinkmanship by stopping just short of holding out a threat to pull out its troops from Tajikistan and leave that country to the wolves. But Moscow is also unsure about Tajik intentions – whether Dushanbe is preparing the ground to get rid of the Russian military presence.

The Russian predicament is that it cannot question Tajikistan’s prerogative as a sovereign country to decide what is in its interests. Second, Moscow cannot prescribe to Tajikistan not to have dealings with the US, since Russia itself recently agreed to provide the Ullyanovsk air base on the Volga as a transit hub for the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Third, Moscow cannot insist Tajikistan should continue to provide rent-free base when Kyrgyzstan insists on rent for the US’ base in Manas.

Waking up to a dragon dance
The Russian officials have tried to frighten the Tajik side with the specter of an apocalypse following a Taliban upsurge in Afghanistan, underscoring that only Russia could act as Tajikistan’s savior. But the Tajiks are unlikely to be impressed. They know Russia is loathe to vacate the base, as it would then be playing itself out of the Afghan chessboard. Besides, in the Tajik estimation, there could be other providers of security if and when the crunch time comes.

China is today as much a stakeholder in the security and stability of Central Asia as Russia could be. Beijing has big plans with regard to Afghanistan’s natural resources, and Tajikistan is the gateway for China’s transportation route from Afghanistan to Xinjiang.

China is building railway links via Tajikistan to connect Afghanistan with Xinjiang. Discussions have just begun between Beijing and Kabul to construct a transit pipeline through northern Afghanistan, which could be connected to the massive Central Asia pipeline that China built from Turkmenistan to Xinjiang.

The Afghan government awarded the first Amu Darya Basin tender last year to China’s CNPC. The Chinese company is now performing field assessments and assessment of existing wells, and tendering for services. It has a commitment to produce at least 150,000 barrels of oil in 2012.

China is also expected to participate in the tender for granting oil concessions on the Afghan-Tajik border region, which Kabul is finalizing at the moment. Bejing is eager to boost incomes in Xinjiang and developing Afghanistan’s resources and importing them through the communication links via Tajikistan will help accelerate the economic development of China’s western region.

In fact, China Metallurgical won the contract for mining the Aynak copper deposit in Afghanistan by offering a US$2.9 billion investment, outstripping the second-place bidder by 70%. The offer included construction of a rail line of up to 800 kilometers, a 400-megawatt power plant, a coal mine to fuel it and a smelter for the copper.

Simply put, China has high stakes in the geopolitics of the region, and the security and stability of Tajikistan in particular has become a top priority for Beijing. Unsurprisingly, China has stepped up its military cooperation with Tajikistan the recent years – the latest visitor from China was Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army.

During his meeting with Tajik Defense Minister Khayrulloyev in Dushanbe on June 6, Chen said the overall development of China-Tajikistan relations have helped the “continuous progress” of military-to-military ties between the two countries. Chen was quoted as saying, “The Chinese side is ready to make joint efforts with Tajikistan to elevate the practical exchange and cooperation between the two armed forces in various fields to a new level.”

Chen’s visit coincided with the SCO military exercise “Peace Mission 2012″, held in Khujand, Tajikistan, last month. A 369-strong Chinese contingent took part in the exercise, including army aviation troops. The PLA Daily described the exercise as of “far-reaching significance” for “deterring the three forces (terrorism, separatism and extremism) and maintaining regional peace and stability.”

Again, during the SCO summit last month in Beijing, Rahmon paid a week-long visit to China, receiving a red-carpet welcome. According to the Tajik statement, various agreements were signed during the visit in the nature of a Chinese grant, concessional loans and technical assistance totaling around $1 billion. The statement said,

Ten new instruments of interstate, intergovernmental and interagency cooperation in such fields as energy, industry, road construction, geology, agriculture, banking, television and radio communications and other industries were signed in the presence of the President. A number of agreements between public and private companies from China and their counterparts from Tajikistan were reached.

China will be building a big cement plant with annual production capacity of 3 million tonnes at an estimated cost of $600 million in the Shahritus region in southern Tajikistan. The first stage of the plant with a production capacity of 1 million tonnes will be commissioned next year.

The Tajik leadership is conscious that China has by far outstripped all other external players in making investments in Tajikistan. Dushanbe has reciprocated Beijing’s goodwill by concluding an agreement last year to settle Tajikistan’s border dispute with China.

In sum, Russian experts have belatedly woken up to the reality that the ground beneath Russia’s feet in Tajikistan has dramatically shifted in the recent years. In the Novosti commentary, Khramchikhin acknowledged that the Tajik leadership might well have “opted for the protection of Beijing.” He concluded,

That would signal a whole new ball game and a new geopolitical reality. The Chinese political scientist Wu Sezhi said two years ago that “the creation of the SCO meets the political and economic interests of China in Central Asia and increases its influence over the former socialist republics. Their role as objects of geopolitical strategy for the United States and Russia is diminishing, and they are showing growing confidence in China.”

Clearly, the rivalry between Russia and China in Central Asia is not just inevitable, it has already begun.

Playing catch-up
From Moscow’s viewpoint, it is a bitter pill to swallow to see its little brother drifting away toward obscure friendships.

Yet the Chinese regional policy is not driven by any animus against Russia as such; on the contrary, its leitmotif is to keep the US out of Central Asia, something in which China and Russia have a convergence of interests. However, Beijing doesn’t regard Central Asia as Russia’s exclusive “sphere of influence” and is going about robustly advancing its strategic interests and in the process, paradoxically, it is augmenting those countries’ strategic autonomy vis-a-vis Moscow.

China has a strong motivation to invest in the region, which is its immediate neighborhood. Neither Russia nor the US can match the Chinese investment or its level of interest in forging comprehensive partnerships with the Central Asian states. Equally, Russia and US cannot cope with China’s “stealth power”, which is unobtrusive and calm – and lethal. The point is, China can put a lot more in than Russia or the US and yet it doesn’t need something out of it right away – unlike its competitors who are keen to realize returns on investment.

Thus, China is well-placed to meet optimally the rising national aspirations of the Central Asian states whereas the US can at best offer a transactional relationship and Russian involvement remains episodic, interspersed with unexplained periods of benign neglect.

China cannot be expected to stay out of Tajikistan in deference to Russia’s sensitivities. Conceivably, the post-2014 scenario in Afghanistan will only prompt China to accelerate its engagement of Tajikistan in the field of security and military cooperation.

The only realistic policy option for Russia will be to follow Chinese footfalls and attune its own policies to the rising curve of nationalism in the Central Asian region. The Central Asian leaderships – not only Rahmon – have become adept at defining their self-interests and their countries’ national interests and are today skilled enough in statecraft to determine what is in it for them in their dealings with external powers.

Russian policies, on the other hand, remain rooted in time past. It has run into the headwinds of Tajik nationalism. This was not a dominant political force in the recent decade but many factors have contributed to its revival and its increased appeal, as it used to be in the late Soviet and early independence days.

The principal reason for this is the hegemonic policies pursued by Uzbekistan, which relentlessly humiliates the Tajiks’ distinctive identity and their ancient roots in Central Asia. The Tajik nationalists always harbored the grievance that Moscow practiced overt discrimination against the Tajiks in favor of the Uzbeks.

The Tajik perception is also that its Central Asian neighbors have exploited its raw materials. Last but not the least, at a time of great fluidity both internally (when local patron-client networks are once again on the ascendancy) and externally (when the 2014 drawdown in Afghanistan looms ahead) it is only natural that the leadership leans toward playing on nationalist feelings to enhance its position.

Besides, Dushanbe’s attention is wandering lately toward the US playing catch-up with the Chinese juggernaut. It needs time to figure out Washington’s recent flurry of engagement and to balance its ties to get the best out of China and the US.

The odds are that Tajikistan will choose to renew the lease for the Russian base on the basis of revised terms. But it will also have moved into China’s orbit, thanks to Beijing’s generous no-strings soft loans, which are desperately needed for development, military support and floods of investment from Chinese firms.

Tajikistan is on the way to becoming a “pivot state” against the post-2014 Afghan backdrop, traditionally close to Moscow but now hedging more toward China while exploring what leverage it can get out of the engagement with the US. The Tajiks are no doubt aware that Russia may again become a superpower, and the US still remains a superpower; but then, China is the unique resident superpower.

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.

Russia’s NGO conundrum

Ajay Kamalakaran

Not all NGOs receiving funds from overseas are indulging in malpractices but the Russian Government has every right to ask questions.

Source: Julian Hibbard

There seems to be a particular feeling of discomfort in the West overRussia’s new bill that calls for certain categories of NGOs receiving foreign funding to register with the Justice Ministry. The main aim of this bill is to monitor NGOs that are involved in politics. It’s no secret that some governments in the West aren’t particularly fond of Vladimir Putin. Some might argue that there are powerful people in Brussels, London and Washington who would salivate at the prospect of instability in Russia a la Yeltsin years. After all, those were the days when multinationals set up a strong base in Russia and about $250 billion went out of the country in one of the largest capital flights in history.

NGOs must register as foreign agents

After living long enough in Russia, there is one thing I learned about the torch-bearers of fairness and democracy that come preaching to the Russians: When in Rome, they sure do behave as the Romans. Life as a journalist in an area that was just opening itself to foreigners (as Sakhalin was around 2003) was an eye-opener. The guardians of Western values and civilisation indulged in the most corrupt practices, bribing officials in a way that would even shock some Russian businessmen. Others opposing the multinationals paid off local NGOs to sustain campaigns against the big bad oil companies. Then there were those from the civilized world who used the effective tool of local thugs to meet certain objectives.

Of course, it isn’t just NGOs from the West that to tend to engage in activities that are “inconsistent with their primary purpose.” After the 1998 financial crisis, when most Western companies packed up and left Sakhalin, a few NGOs moved in from South Korea. Their aim was to help the economically disadvantaged ethnic Koreans on the island. The Sakhalin Koreans, a small but visible minority in the region, were as poor (and atheist) as the rest of the island’s population in the late-1990s. Then came the South Korean NGOs, basically a front for the various churches in the Asian economic powerhouse.

To keep the story short, the funds from South Korean NGOs, many of which came with missionary zeal and a conversion condition, turned the Sakhalin Koreans into the dominant business community on the island and an ardent group of believers! There is still a fear that the ‘expansion’ may spread to the Slavic descendants of Orthodox Christians, who are not sure of their religious leanings, even two decades after the fall of communism. Under such a scenario, these new believers, like the Sakhalin Koreans, become a political force. The most paranoid of commentators even suggest that these believers, powered by foreign NGOs may create some trouble across the Russian Far East.

NGOs tend to be an easy front for foreign governments to push their political and economic agendas. In India, we know how some American and Scandinavian NGOs bankrolled the movement to stop the Russian-operated Kudankulam plant. Surprise surprise; church-groups were used to sabotage the project, which is a hallmark of Indo-Russian cooperation. The American-backed protestors in Kudankulam are now behind bars for “waging war against the nation,” something that NGOs in Russia are unlikely to be charged with if they violate the provisions of the bill.

The Russian NGO bill is fair and pretty much toes the line of a similar law in the United States. So, if something is good for the undisputed leader of the Free World, why do Western NGOs have a problem with such a bill when it comes to Russia? The penalties proposed by the Russian bill are far less severe than in America.

It’s only NGOs used as a front for foreign governments to advance their political goals in Russia that have to worry about the new legislation. There are thousands of NGOs that are involved in several causes that help the Russian people and this bill will not pose any kind of threat to them. But then we still have some people, who dream of a flower revolution in Russia, and as far-fetched as that may seem, there are enough independent accounts of opposition political parties in the country receiving some kind of assistance from overseas. A lot of this assistance comes via NGOs. It’s this kind of activity that the Russian Government wants to put an end to. Foreign governments that want to use the NGO route as a means for a coup d’état or to meet other political ends will have to find another way to advance their agenda.

---

This writer was the editor of the Sakhalin Times from 2003 to 2007.

Russia Sends Anti-Submarine Black Sea Fleet Destroyer and 3 Amphibious Landing Ships To Syria

[SEE:  Russia gets its armed forces ready in the Caucasus]

Experts Club

Russia sends Black Sea warship to Syria -source

ASW Destroyer Smetlivy # 810 (Class: Kashin)

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine | Tue Jul 10, 2012

(Reuters) - Russia dispatched a destroyer-class warship to Syria on Tuesday, a source in the Russian Navy told Reuters, and another military source was quoted as saying four more Russian ships were en route to the violence-torn country.

Moscow has been the major ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as he battles an armed uprising, but the source quoted by Interfax news agency said the ships’ mission had nothing to do with the conflict.

Interfax quoted the military source as saying the ships were carrying marines on a training mission as well as food, water and fuel for Russia’s naval maintenance and repair base in Syria’s Mediterranean port of Tartous.

It is Moscow’s only naval base outside of the former Soviet Union and its navy regularly sends supplies there.

The destroyer Smetlivy, which patrolled the waters off the coast of Syria in April and May, was seen leaving the Black Sea port of Sevastopol on Tuesday morning.

“Smetlivy is leaving for Syria today… The vessel is expected to reach the Turkish straits tomorrow morning,” the navy source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A Russian Black Sea Fleet spokesman said the ship had been dispatched, but declined to confirm its destination. “The vessel has gone to sea, I cannot tell you anything else,” spokesman Vyacheslav Trukhachyov said.

The military source told Interfax that three landing ships and an anti-submarine destroyer from Russia’s Northern fleet had left the port of Severomorsk and were headed for Tartous.

Russia, which has blocked Western-led attempts to have the U.N. Security Council impose harsh sanctions on Assad’s government, has been a major arms supplier to Damascus. But a Russian official was reported on Monday as saying that Moscow was suspending arms deliveries while the conflict continued.

Late last year, Russia sent a flotilla of warships to waters off Syria including flagship aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.

(Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Russia’s “Red Line” In the Caucasus/Caspian Region

Russia Hints at Intervention in Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict – July, 2012

Here I am standing on my balcony on a warm and sunny day in Yerevan watching a pair of Russian piloted Mig-29s conducting areal maneuvers in the skies between the outer reaches of Yerevan and the Arax river. Enemy occupied Mount Ararat, once a cradle of human civilization and for several thousands of years the very epicenter of Armenian statehood, is providing this show of Russian strength in the south Caucasus with a surreal yet magnificent backdrop.

As I watched this little spectacle playing out before me, I felt the strong urge to reflect on some thoughts.

Not far south from where I currently am, the tense political standoff with Iran continues at full throttle… Not too far south from where I am, the Islamo-Turco-Western agenda in Syria has plunged the embattled nation into a bloody civil war… Not too far east from where I am, Central Asia descends once again into chaos… Not far west from where I am, neo-Ottoman forces are on the move once again… Not too far west from where I am, Europe continues to suffer from a historic financial collapse… Not far north from where I am, Western, Georgian, Turkic and Islamic interests continue to collaborate and conspire against Russia and Armenia…

The Caucasus, where I currently am, remains as tense as ever as Baku continuous to test Armenia’s military defenses as well as Yerevan’s patience.

And fearing that its most important ally in the Caucasus is under threat, the Russian Bear has begun to growl in more ways than one. On this morning, the stern growl of the jet engines of the Mig-29s I see silhouetted against Mount Ararat before me gives me hope that Armenia will again survive these troubling times. And again I would like to call on Armenians to come to their good senses and remain as close to the Russian Bear as possible and in doing so properly exploit the historic opportunity the Russian state is providing our small, poor, landlocked and blockaded nation surrounded by enemies in one of the most hostile political environments on earth.

I’d like to take a little detour here and briefly address a very important topic that is inherent to all that is occurring in the region in recent times.

Affordable and/or unhindered access to oil, gas and various other commodities plays a big role in world affairs. The pursuit to manage/exploit natural resources and commodities is one of few core factors lurking behind virtually every single crisis plaguing the world today. At a time when populations across the world are booming and at a time when more-and-more nations are stepping out of the middle ages and into the modern world, man’s perennial fight to control the world’s natural wealth and/or its distribution networks is fast reaching new heights.

Let’s face it, had the Middle East, the Caucasus or Central Asia been free of oil and gas they would not be making news headlines today, and they would not be the perennial battleground they have been for over one hundred years. Oil politics is a major factor in international affairs today, as it has been for well over a century. The fierce competition to acquire new oil and/or gas deposits and the desire to control the distribution of current energy production lurks behind most of the bloodletting we see around the world today. Therefore, when looking at what is occurring in and around the Caucasus today, it would help us to first recognize the core elements that are the driving force behind the scenes.

In the big picture, the region’s ethnic strife and territorial disputes that come along with such strife is not why the Caucasus has attracted so much attention from the global community. Energy politics, also referred to as the Great Game, is the primary reason why the Caucasus has attracted so much international attention. Unbeknownst to many, even to many of us Armenians, the Caucasus region is in fact a very strategic energy corridor linking Central Asia’s enormous energy potential to the rest of the world. As a consequence of the region’s strategic situation, Armenia has come to play a very important role for all interested powers. The potential for impacting, positively or negatively, the region’s energy distribution is one of Armenia’s and Artsakh’s most strategic values for friends and foes alike. Needles to say, the other strategic value Armenia currently has going for itself today is of course being a Russian foothold in the region.

Similarly, although it lacks natural wealth, Syria also sits on territory that is foreseen to host major energy transportation routes. This may be one of the reasons why Ankara, Riyadh and Western powers want to control the political affairs in Syria, the other reason of course being the obvious fact that Syria is one of the strategic gateways to Iran. The energy transit route that is foreseen to pass through Damascus may be seen as an alternative corridor to release some pressure off of the Persian Gulf and lessen the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz. Towards the bottom of this page you will find a very interesting Asia Times article titled The Oil Road Through Damascus.

Seeing the writing on the wall, the Russian Federation is forging ahead and reinforcing its naturally wealthy Eurasian fortress and reinstituting its political and economic influence upon much of former Soviet territories. Fortunately, Moscow has more recently become very active in the Middle East as well. Moscow’s political resurgence has been made possible by its natural wealth.

Russia, the world’s largest political entity, continues to control the world’s greatest amount of energy reserves and it has more-or-less monopolized energy transit routes of Central Asia. In fact, even by Western estimates the Russian Federation is by-far the wealthiest nation when it comes to natural wealth, a very distant second is the United States. For more information please see the last three articles at the bottom of this page.

The 24/7 Wall Street article titled “The World’s Most Resource-Rich Countries” is a brief look at the natural wealth of nations and it is enough to help one understand the core motivation of international relations and the very basis of geostrategy. Natural wealth is what makes the political world tick. Having said that, the estimated wealth officially attributed to the Russian Federation is grossly underestimated in my opinion. There are vast tracts of land throughout Russia’s vast and yet untouched eastern reaches that have not even been thoroughly studied, and there is of course the vast Arctic region within which Russia has the largest stake in.

Russian land has been the envy of Western powers for centuries. Back in the mid-1990s Madeline Albright is said to have made the infamous claim that it is unfair for one nation, i.e. Russia, to control so much natural wealth (see article at the bottom of this page). Their fear and envy for centuries has essentially been this:

If Russia, geographically the largest and the most resource rich nation on earth who is also happens to be a major nuclear military power ever gets its act together, that is if it becomes stable enough to develop an efficient national infrastructure and system of governance, it can dominate the political and economic life of the world for generations to come. As a result of this simple yet profound realization, the political West will do everything and anything in its power to try to contain Moscow and to undermine Russia’s development. This in fact may explain Western policies vis-à-vis Russia for well over a century.

Remember the adage of the Anglo-Americans establishment: Keep America in, Russia out and Germany down!

Moscow’s control of vast tracts of resource rich lands and its control of energy distribution networks throughout Eurasia’s heartland gives the Russian Federation immense economic and political potential in the 21th century. In fact, in recent years various experts in the United States and Europe, as well as senior policymakers in various Western capitols have been forecasting a future dependence on Russia’s natural resources. Needless to say, dependence of any sort means political subservience. Needless to say, the financial/political elite of the Western world is not about to give up the wealth and power it has accumulated for centuries. This may explain why strategic thinkers in the Western world have felt compelled to maintain a strong military presence in the Middle East and Central Asia. The aforementioned threat emanating out of Russia may be the main factor in their geostrategic formulations.

The following two maps–[EDITOR'S NOTE:  Download from original article to view very large maps.]– will give you a general look at the energy distribution picture of the Eurasia as of the last ten years -

As you can see, most of the energy produced in Central Asian transits through the Russian Federation. In fact, the only Central Asian energy route that is not currently under Russian or Iranian control is the corridor that passes through the south Caucasus, traversing Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. In the big geostrategic picture, losing this last Russia-free and Iran-free energy corridor in the south Caucasus is ultimately what the political West is terrified of. Energy politics and the “Great Game” in the Caucasus region is something that I have written a lot about during the past several years. I would like the reader to revisit some of these older yet still relevant commentaries -

At the Crossroads of Strategic Pipeline Corridors:http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/06/at-crossroads-of-strategic-pipeline.html

Russia’s Fight For Control of Russia’s energy:http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/moscow-currently-satisfies-about-13-of_07.html

The New “Great Game”: Oil Politics in the Caucasus and Central Asia:http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/some-see-expulsion-of-washingtonian.html

Armenia May Become Alternative Transit Energy Route Between Caspian Basin And Europe: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/08/day-or-two-after-washington-announced.html

This is ultimately what the Whore of Babylon was concerned about when serious border skirmishes broke-out between Azerbaijan and Armenia while she was visiting Yerevan last month. Simply put, the fear is that a war in the region may see Armenian/Russian forces forever severing the flow of energy in the south Caucasus. Knowing that a Russia-backed Armenia possess the military might to defeat their Azeri client state in an armed confrontation, the Anglo-American-Zionist global order does not yet want to see the resumption of major hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Saakashvili’s historic blunder in 2008 was bad enough for them. The following blog pages about regional political affairs might as well have been written yesterday for much of the geostrategic factors found within them remains unchanged -

 

Azerbaijan Preparing For War Against Armenia: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/03/tensions-are-definitely-high-in-south.html

 

Keep Armenia isolated, George Friedman:http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/arye-gut-israeli-jewish-expert-in.html

 

Russia to become involved in another war on post-Soviet space?http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/article-by-sergey-balmasov-and-vadim.html

 

Artskah today plays a major role in Eurasia’s Great Game. Artsakh’s existence as an unrecognized military fortress serves the geostrategic interests of the Kremlin. While the unresolved dispute over Artsakh ensures Armenia’s political dependence on Moscow, Artsakh has also been the Russian sledgehammer hanging over Turkish heads, the sharp sickle that in one swoop can sever one of the strategic energy lifelines of the West. Simply put, Artsakh ensures Armenia’s dependence on Moscow and Azerbaijan’s fear of Moscow. As a result, strategic planners in Moscow will not tolerate any military misadventures by Baku. Fearing, however, that Baku may be under intense pressure to resolve its problems militarily, Moscow has been strengthening its military presence throughout the north Caucasus, as well as those located in Armenia. See various relevant article posted at the bottom of this commentary.

Nevertheless, Moscow has made it unmistakeably clear that it will go to war over Armenia.

The last twenty years have ruined Russian-Georgian relations for the foreseeable future. Russians and Turks have been natural competitors for centuries and it is no different today. Moreover, Islam as well as pan-Turkism poses a significant threat to the Russian Federation. In light of all this, Armenia is the only political entity in the region that guarantees Russia’s long-term presence in the strategic south Caucasus. Russia-friendly and Christian, Armenia is the only nation-state in the region that is a reliable and a natural buffer against Turkic and Islamic expansion. Therefore, it is quite easy to see why Moscow will be willing go to war simply to ensure that the pro-Armenian status-quo in the region remains intact. And this is ultimately why Moscow has massed troops on Azerbaijan’s northern borders, increased the frequency of its military exercises throughout the region and has begun to beef-up its military presence in Armenia. This is all being done by Moscow to discourage Baku from going to war.

More importantly, this state of affairs is providing the Armenian republic with a historic opportunity that it has not seen in a very long time, in fact a historic opportunity that it has not enjoyed in perhaps nearly one thousand years.

Some claim we are fast heading to towards a world war, others claim we are in the preliminary stages of a world war and yet others claim we are already in the initial phases of a world war. I don’t know about a world war per se but political and economic tensions are increasing around the world and something’s got to give. If major hostilities break-out, after the Middle East, the Caucasus will unfortunately become one of the major theaters of military operations. Being that the Caucasus is Russia’s strategic underbelly, we can all therefore expect Moscow to treat the region as its first line of defense. The silver-lining in all this is that there may come at some point a historic opportunity for Yerevan, an opportunity for Armenians to finally break Armenia out if its mountain prison.

Arevordi
July, 2012

Leading Shiite leader Ayatollah Al-Nemer shot injured, arrested by Saudi Wahabi forces

[SEE:Two Saudis die in clashes over arrest]

SAUDI ARABIA

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has shot injured and arrested Shia cleric Ayatollah Al-Nemer on Sunday 08 July 2012 at 5:00 p.m. local time in KSA, the Shia Post reported.

According to received picture, injuries from which it can be assumed that the arrest was violent.

According to local residents, loud gun firing were heard and the pursuit ended with Ayatollah Al-Nemer’s car hitting a wall of a nearby house.

Sources close to Ayatollah Al-Nemer indicated that the Ayatollah has been injured without conforming whether the injury was due to the gun firing or the car accident.

Shortly after the car accident, police members took Ayatollah Al-Nemer to an unknown place while his car was left on its spot.

Two weeks ago in his Friday sermon Shaikh Al-Nemer criticised Arab dictators in Saudi, Bahrain.  He is well known for publicly criticising dictators.

After the shot injures and arrest of Ayatullah Shaikh Al-Nemer, hundreds of  Saudis  Shiite Muslims took streets in Awamiah and Qatif for his release and protested against the KSA for the brutal attack on Shiite Cleric.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has arrested hundreds of innocent Shiite Muslims including children, since they have demanded basic rights for living.

Since February 2011, Saudi protesters have held demonstrations on an almost regular basis in the oil-rich Eastern Province, mainly in Qatif and the town of Awamiyah, calling for the release of all political prisoners, freedom of expression and assembly, and an end to widespread discrimination.

However, the demonstrations have turned into protest rallies against the Al Saud regime, especially since November 2011, when Saudi security forces killed five protesters and injured many others in Eastern Province.

The Saudi interior ministry issued a statement on March 5, 2011, prohibiting “all forms of demonstrations, marches or protests, and calls for them, because that contradicts the principles of the Islamic Sharia, the values and traditions of Saudi society, and results in disturbing public order and harming public and private interests.”

Saudi Arabia is a state party to the Arab Charter on Human Rights. Article 24 of the charter states that “every citizen has the right… to freely pursue a political activity [and] to freedom of association and peaceful assembly.”

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have also criticized the Al Saud regime for silencing dissent through intimidation and violation of the basic rights of citizens.