[According to the following analysis (I think that I am understanding what is being said), Turkey is the "free radical" that is being used by Moscow to destabilize American incursions into former Soviet territory. By using Turkey's interests in getting the gas flowing through its bank accounts as gentle persuasion to draw Istanbul into Moscow's camp, Armenian issues become the catalyst that drives Turkey into taking blocking actions against American moves. Turkey is playing both sides in these conflicts, particularly in the Caucasus Region, but is it playing the role of double-agent in all of them?]
Refusal of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to participate in the informal summit of CIS and foreign minister of this country , Elmar Mamedyarov - from talks with his Armenian counterpart in Brussels, can be regarded as an ultimatum to the co-chairs of the Minsk Group of OSCE to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Recall that Aliyev did not participate in the forum of the CIS, citing a decision by the presence of the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan . Baku said that he agrees with the mediators worked out the Madrid document defining “date basic principles of” Karabakh settlement. At the same time, officials in Azerbaijan say that the Armenian side is stalling for time and does not give consent. On the other hand, Azerbaijan daily pumps rhetoric, as if pushing brokers to pressure on Armenia.
In general, Ilham Aliyev and his team create a very uncomfortable with the information point of view, the atmosphere for Armenia. Madrid signing a document under the threat of renewed war, the Armenian leadership has put itself in “a weak position.” At the same time in Yerevan are well aware that a loud declaration of “consent” of Baku with the Madrid principles – a diplomatic ploy, followed by an equally unexpected statements and decisions.
Moreover, in Baku at this stage do not hide “special position” on the key issue – a mechanism of determining the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh. This position consists in the fact that the outcome expected in Nagorno-Karabakh “popular will of the” must lead to the consolidation of the status of Nagorno Karabakh within Azerbaijan’s borders. That is, Azerbaijan agrees with the Madrid principles, but with the proviso that the conflict will be resolved as favorably to him. It is clear that such a “reservation” does for Armenia to continue negotiations is absolutely meaningless. Then on what counts in Baku?
Without a doubt, the Azerbaijani leadership is closely monitoring the most important in this situation the regional process – the Russian-Turkish talks on the so-called Platform for Security in South Caucasus. The expert community too quickly thrown out of sight of the initiative of Turkey, the main phase which, as it might seem to many, was the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.
However, the Turkish elite, especially the Prime Minister of this country , Recep Tayyip Erdogan , initially made no secret that its main task is not to unlock the Armenian border and give it new opportunities for economic development (as it is not strange, it is a version of actively lobbied officials in Armenia). Erdogan from the first day of signing the protocols linked perspectives of Armenian-Turkish “dialogue” with the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Simply put, sought full involvement of Ankara in the Minsk process against the will of one of its sides – Yerevan. And now, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu said that Ankara and Yerevan signed in October last year in Zurich protocols are now in the refrigerator. Faced by them there, as already noted above, due to the exceptional efforts of the Turkish premier.
Thus, the Armenian-Turkish protocols were efforts made by Turkey in the refrigerator, “and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan is introduced in the” oven “. Given the fact that Baku strongly lobbied for the inclusion of Turkey in the OSCE Minsk Group, we can assume that the hand on the controller keeps the temperature just Ankara.
Added a new feature degree in Karabakh process of the Turkish side will very soon – during the official visit of Russian PresidentDmitry Medevedeva in Ankara on 11-13 May. The same Davutoglu about the impending visit of the agenda, explicitly stated that the negotiations with the Russian president at the forefront of the Karabakh issue will be raised. But this “Turkish news is not exhausted. Thus, Turkey has declared its intention to strengthen the security of the Autonomous Republic of Nakhichevan and Azerbaijan at the informal level to specify that would not mind to see there and the Turkish military base. At the official level, as the representative of the Presidential Administration Ali Hasanov said that it was a military and strategic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Lest there be any doubt about the fact that this is addressed messidzh Russia, he added: “If there is a military and strategic cooperation between Armenia and Russia, why should it not be between Azerbaijan and Turkey?”
It is interesting to note that such drastic steps Baku, contrary to the logic promising closer relations with Russia, have been taken literally immediately after “freezing” the Armenian-Turkish protocols. The correspondent of IA REGNUM News in Baku in connection with the said political scientist Arif Yunusov : “The Government of Azerbaijan in the second half of last year was criticized Turkey, and then the United States. At the same time, it has strengthened relations with Russia and Iran. It is anti-American rhetoric has subsided, and Turkey’s position once again welcome. Might not the sharp swings in foreign policy to undermine the confidence of partners in Baku? ” In response, the expert said: “Yes, indeed, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy today is highly inconsistent. It is based on personality factors, emotions often davleyut over reason and logic. It seems, often repeating the propaganda phrase that Azerbaijan -” a leader not only the entire region, but even one of the leading players in world politics, our authorities themselves believe it. This was particularly evident in the apparent rejection last year of Ilham Aliyev on Obama’s invitation to participate in the Istanbul Summit that many will simply shocked. A follow-up attacks and actions against Turkey – the main strategic ally of Azerbaijan – in general it was difficult to understand. It’s not even the fact that Azerbaijan has strengthened economic ties with Russia and Iran. This is normal, you should try to have with neighbors, normal and good relations. But of Baku were clearly political in nature, have been outspoken protests against his policies the U.S. and Turkey. All this, of course, will not bring any dividends to Azerbaijan “.
It appears that the assessment Yunusov few straightforward. Indeed, increasing anti-American rhetoric, Aliyev secretly helped Turkey, as Ankara at that time suffered from the intense pressure from Washington, “the Armenian question. “Rapprochement” with Russia is also difficult to find for some act against the interests of Turkey – for the simple reason that no countermeasures to the Turkish side has not followed. On the contrary, Ankara, in turn, also increased its dialogue with Moscow. The same applies to Iran. “Consent, that Azerbaijan has reacted to the idea of brokering role of Iran in the Karabakh process (and this is the case when the Baku simultaneously endorsed and the result of work of OSCE Minsk Group), coincided with the active support for Ankara’s position on the Iranian nuclear issue and anti-Israel rhetoric Erdogan.
Thus, the point of view of the fact that Azerbaijan has affected the position of the Turkish government on the Armenian issue imitation rapprochement with Russia and Iran, and achieving his, returned to Turkey’s orbit, looks very doubtful. In fact, Azerbaijan has very skillfully played the role of lightning rod for Turkey, Ankara, providing several important arguments that are not brought to its logical conclusion the process of normalizing relations with Armenia, as well as to strengthen its position in the energy dialogue with the EU and Russia. “Kontrliniya” Ilham Aliyev has helped Turkey to motivate Americans to unlock the impossibility of a unilateral Turkish-Armenian border without compromising the interests of Turkey and the Europeans to instill energy risks associated with the refusal of Azerbaijan to sign gas agreement with Ankara.
In general, Azerbaijan and Turkey today are trying to put “the cart before the horse” – first, the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the security zone around Nagorno-Karabakh, then unlock the Armenian-Turkish border. We can say that the Azerbaijani-Turkish bloc came to the same, where to begin. However, an important achievement was the new atmosphere prevailing in the region of Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Turkish dispute over the classification of the events of 1915. The Armenian leadership has taken the curtain considerable efforts to make the process of recognition of the Genocide additional momentum. Recent statements of the Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan directly appeal to this problem. Visiting the graves of the Armenian leader Woodrow Wilson in the U.S. – very eloquently reflected the official position of Yerevan. The same blank defense adopted by the Armenian authorities in Karabakh process.
Thus, the efforts of Azerbaijan and Turkey are aimed mainly at the violation of the status quo in the South Caucasus. At the same time Baku and Ankara expects that at this stage, Russia will have a decisive impact on Armenia. Otherwise, as already stated, Turkey began to build a railway to Nakhchivan, and deploy a military base there, and Azerbaijan simply increases the axis of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara and in the future, quite possibly, out of the CIS. Visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s first in Ajaria (Batumi), and then to Baku, scheduled immediately after a visit to Ankara Medvedev, will open another line of Turkish activity. Remembering the role of Turkey in ensuring the safety of Nakhichevan, Ankara could not forget about Adjara, with its Muslim population. Thus, Moscow is trying to turn into an instrument of pressure on Armenia, threatening to destabilize the situation in Transcaucasia and usilienim in the region of the Turkish military presence.
In turn, Armenia, after freezing dialogue with Ankara, and is interested in slowing down the Karabakh process. However, Yerevan will be difficult to explain that in fact these two processes were directly linked to each other, since previously the Armenian authorities assiduously denied this. Indeed, after the unsealing of the Armenian-Turkish border and obtain security assurances from Turkey, the Armenian side would be easier to begin the withdrawal of troops from some of the best parts of the front line with Azerbaijan. And now, this initiative will be absolutely disastrous for Armenia and Karabakh, both in terms of external and internal security.
A sharp intensification of Turkish foreign policy in four strategic areas – the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Middle East and Central Asia – in the medium term could lead to further destabilize the situation in these regions. “Litmus test”, which gives the interim results of the foreign policy doctrine of “strategic depth” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, becomes situation in the South Caucasus after the apparent failure of the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. The speed of the Caucasian problems requires participants in the political process of building a flexible line. It appears that Russia will soon be forced to re-emphasize approaches to regional issues, taking into account be active tandem Azerbaijan-Turkey. If, however, Moscow and Ankara will come to a consensus on the Karabakh issue, then Armenia will have no choice but to strengthen the defensive line and look for the guarantors of the status quo among the other centers of power.