Whoever controls Central AsiaControls the World–Lord Curzon
When the French got together with the continental Europeans in the treaty of Brussels, the UKtried to thwart it with a grouping of its own called the Out-Eight. Britain failed and the French succeeded. Eventually London knocked on the door of Brussels and joined what is now known as the EU. Today that grouping rivals the US in GDP.
A similar event is happening in Asia.
The countdown has begun. 10 days– to one of the one fundamental tectonic shifts in recent history. Not since the Austro-Hungarians formed their alliance in 1918 has the world seen such a colossal development.
The SCO comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Russia also has a Quadilateral group with Pakistan, Tajikistan Afghanistan. Beijing and Islamabad are working to develop closer military and economic cooperation. China has publicly declared that “any attack on Pakistan will be considered an attack on China”. China is also pursuing a policy of ‘soft reverse containment’ of the USA in Asia and in Pakistan.
Moscow is working closely with Pakistan. It wants TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project to divert gas away from Europe towards South Asia and China. Pakistan and Russia have had several meetings in the past couple of years, and Zaradari has met Medhev twice to coordinate their approach in a post-US Afghanistan Moscow’s special representative on Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov (equivalent of Holbrooke) visited Islamabad last week for in-depth consultations.
Russian and China are augmenting Pakistan’s strategic sovereignty so that it can withstand America’s constant bullying. In the aftermath of the Abbottabad raid, Asif Zardari for all his faults is actively diversifying its foreign economic ties and foreign policy. Russia working on the directions of Catherine the Great is actively fostering the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as an exclusive club to keep out the United States of America.
Washington is reaching for the panic button. The US is fretting that the SCO is gearing up to admit Pakistan and possibly India as as full members. The US think tanks are chagrined that Afghanistan will join the club as an observer. The rethink on admitting new members has set alarm bells ringing in Washington. The odds are heavily stacked against the US.
The plan to prop up India against China as espoused by Paul Craig Roberts maybe failing
The Russian-Chinese initiative to induct Pakistan and possibly India as full SCO members deals a devastating blow to American of encircling China, threatening Iran, bullying Pakistan, and jawboning itself into Central Asia.
Clearly, the SCO summit in Kazakhstan on June 15th is an historic event of Himalayan proportions for the geopolitics of energy. America US apprehends a paradigm shift in the Asian power dynamic. Russia and China banding together with Pakistan and possibly India sends chills up the spines of US think-tanks. American hubris had it coming. Russia and China are re-crafting their South Asia polices that aim at harmonizing their ties with Pakistan and India respectively within the umbrella of the SCO. Russia is more of a honest broker than America today. Moscow was able to bring Delhi and Islamabad togther in Tashkent, something that the Americans have never been able to do.
The establishment of SCO in the 1990s was one of Beijing’s most successful diplomatic overtures. The purpose of establishing the SCO was and remains to this that –to challenge the US encroachment into Central Asia and China’s backyard. It has dampened America’s plans to making Central Asia its pawn in the Great Game. China has improved its relations with the regional players using the SCO.
Half the world will be represented in the SCO. That is powerful.
Next week will change Asia as we know it.