Expert on Central Asia Vitaliy VOLKOV

Last week the members of local community of salafits in Shubarshi village in Aktobe oblast shot up three policemen. It has been not the first case this year. Before that, a die-hard exploded himself in Aktobe  KNB department, in addition a vehicle filled with explosives detonated near KNB pretrial detention center in Astana. Members of Almaty city Special Forces suffered in a bloody slaughter in one of Almaty flats. These week, the prisoners of  Balkhash colony exploded themselves in attempt to escape (at least one of them – adherent of untraditional religious flow). Does it mean that tolerant and calm Kazakhstan is facing real threat of religious extremism? Alexander KRASNER (Novaya-Kazakhstan) and Seitkazy MATAYEV (KazTAG) discussed it with well known German expert on Central Asia Vitaliy VOLKOV in Köln.

-I have been talking about an “arc of crisis” for a long time, which has two branches: one comes from Afghanistan and Pakistan to India, and another one- through Central Asia to Russia and Caucasus. The fire has been walking on it inflaming hotbeds here or there. Islamic terrorists are trying to act in a wide front and constantly remind about themselves, as any resonant terror act attracts not just attention but also supporters.

There is quite wide recruiting base in Kazakhstan. It includes not only Kazakh people, but also migrant workers, who work here. Arab people actively act on your territory, who are closely connected with Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). But their target is not Kazakhstan, but, first of all, Uzbekistan and Russian Caucasus. If in tactical aims they need destabilization in Kazakhstan, they wil do it, and they have these opportunities. Although, your special forces, as I believe, are trying to trace this situation.

There are data, that the heads of newly formed Islamic underground world acting at the base of the IMU in Kyrgyzstan have strong positions and are ready for military actions. In this new IMU, as some sources reported, there are many militants from Caucasus and other Russian regions. There are data, that lately their troops have been replenished with militants from Kazakhstan.

The new IMU are basically based in Pakistan and supported by ISI – interdepartmental investigation office of this country. It is not based on relatives ties, which previous IMU members had, who escaped from Uzbekistan in the end of 1990th and settled in Pakistan. The new generation browbeats even the talibs in Afghanistan. They are carpetbaggers who set their rules of Shariat, they are ready to move, first to Afghanistan, and then to Kyrgyzstan, and through Tajikistan to Uzbekistan. They do not consider Tajikistan as a front direction, as in many districts there they have freedom of movement. The local Tajik authorities are paid by the IMU members, fear them or have the same goals as they do. That’s why they let them move through their territory, basically to Kyrgyzstan. Of course, the main ideological target of the new IMU is Uzbekistan. Karimov is their enemy, and the presidential chair under him, according to some signs, is swinging. People are dissatisfied with the ruling regime, population’s passionarity has increased. Recently one political force stated that they are ready for revolution of Arabic type. In common, that Arabic example for Central Asia has been underestimated by experts, including me.

Kazakhstan is a very convenient rear base for the militants, thus, it has better position in these terms, than other Central Asian states. There is no sense for Islamists to frustrate situation in Kazakhstan. Although, they can do it already today.

 -S.Matayev: In one word, you believe that militants are preparing operations in Central Asia to invade in these or those states of the region?

-According to my data, the IMU are planning scaled operations in Pakistan, Afghanistan and some Central Asian states.

 -S.M.: Who is interested in it and who is financing it?

-There are at least two big financing sources. First- it is drugs traffic. The drugs lords are not interested in destabilization, as they have adjusted routs for drugs transportation. They don’t need a big wave. They need small conflicts, as in the time of such conflicts it is possible “to fish in troubled water”. Another thing, when drug lords and warlords are the same people.  They can be close relatives of the president of this or that state or have direct ties with the president, government or somebody from the government; in this case the primary goal is the politics and the profit from drugs trafficking is a means for the goal achievement.

The second source of financing is bigger- it is sponsors from Arabic states, who, by the way, work also in Kazakhstan. Through  their channels they actively finance, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. They aspire to make khalifat.

The war in Libya on the background of the failure of NATO troops in Afghanistan nudges that in the USA, and, perhaps, in Europe, there is opinion in some political circles and special services that it is easier to conclude peace with Islamists rather than struggle with them. To make peace and define spheres of influence. Where is the border of this division?

Until today, all the heads of Central-Asian states believed that in any geopolitical situation they will get support from the West and from Russia, because they struggle with Islamists. As soon as Western politicians start looking for peace with ben Laden’s followers, it will immediately change the position of Central-Asian leaders.

-S.M.: Is the reaction of Central Asian leaders adequate on this situation?

-Differently. Recently there was a message that Turkmenistan president ordered to organize controlling service on earth orbit and empowered it to the local Ministry of National Security. One of my colleagues supposed that Berdymukhamedov recently got to know about Google. And that Americans are watching Ashgabat and see everything what is going on there. He ordered to control this Google. Of course, it is a joke, but it is adequate to the level of his thinking. Berdymukhamedov is a dentist.

They said that he was Niyazov’s dentist. This person has no idea about how a state functions and how it is governed. All his analytics is based on fear. The situation is different in Kyrgyzstan, they have no time to analyze. Their goal is just to keep the state. As I know, Uzbekistan has strong analytical service, there are Soviet specialists. They forecast the future. Another thing is that this future does not seem pink in their forecasts. The economy is in critical condition.

Even Karimov can’t and does not want to go against gentility, terrible corruption, which is corroding the state.

There is no analysis of the situation in Tajikistan. But as far as they have ties with Afghan warlords, Rahmon gets information in the form of baizes what is planned and who to contact. He imprisoned all his former colleagues. They are also not great specialists, but at least they were warlords who went through war and had ties with various groups. Today Rahmon is in very complicated situation: his own kindred is dissatisfied with him, they say that he tends to lie a lot and disrespects elder people.

As for Kazakhstan, I think, the country which chaired the OSCE last year, should invest more into analytics connected with Afghan processes and propose deep strategic conception.

A. Krasner: Looks like the heads of Central-Asian states do not think much about geopolitical situation. First of all they are concerned about preservation of their personal power…

-The age of governors of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (for now I exclude Tajikistan and Turkmenistan leaders) stimulates various political circles and elites to think about their claim for power. It is more obvious in Uzbekistan and might be destabilization factor. There are several groups, controlled by the local national Security Council, which for now supports Karimov. However, the head of the council Inoyatov has his group of supporters in a certain region of the state. There are big businessmen, who form some political lobby, there is elder president’s daughter.

The situation is a bit different in Kazakhstan, I would not underestimate the factor of, for example, Rakhat Aliyev. Despite strong overestimation of his own opportunities, he continues to destabilize the situation.

-S.M.: What do you expect from the upcoming presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan? Will the cardinal problems be resolved there or everything will come to banal property redistribution? Now the presidential post in Kyrgyzstan reminds the royal one in Great Britain: reigning but not ruling. According to your opinion, should the presidential form of ruling return to Kyrgyzstan?

-It is the same as to think if a fly sitting on the head of a hippo affects his behavior. I am not sure the election will be held in the form as it is planned. Let’s make comparison with Afghanistan. For example, we will hold elections there. But Afghan people do not want to live in a uniform country. In this situation, they can elect anybody, but the main problem won’t be resolved, how to find consensus with various ethnic groups. I don’t believe that something can seriously depend on election in Kyrgyzstan. Perhaps, something can be changed, if a wave of processes travels through Central Asian states which I had mentioned before. A strong Islamic group will appear which will make claim for power.

As for Kyrgyzstan, there is a president, who can do almost nothing there, and, perhaps, already does not want to. It is obvious that security agencies of this state act independently and only in their interests, sometimes in cooperation with criminals.

-S.M.: Don’t you think that a third power not connected with any kindreds and groups, representing people’s masses can come to power during autumn election in Kyrgyzstan?

– I am very skeptical about so called free elections. From my point of view  a young leader should appear to bring changes, so called Shamil, who will call people to fight.

But it is blood. I think appearance of such Shamil is possible in Uzbekistan. Perhaps, it wil be somebody from the group of Mohammad Salih, as Salih is a charismatic person, a well-known poet, oppositionist, who lives abroad.

He stated about foundation of new movements and Karim fears. Looks like there are people in Uzbekistan government who are ready to support this movement. It is a statement of not only Salih, but also information from different sources, which confirms it. He is a representative of intelligence, from one side – quite national, from another side- soviet, dissident. At the same time he is not connected with the West so much to abstract from Uzbek reality. He is a person who believes in Islam, but he is not a fan. There are also “akremists” (main figures of Fergana events of 2005) and a number of other underground movements in Islam.

 A.K.: The calmest Central Asian state seems to be Turkmenistan. But as they say still waters run deep.. or am I mistaken?

-Turkmenistan is not a small country. Besides Turkmen people, who are dissatisfied with unemployment, who don’t get salaries from the government, there are a lot of Uzbek and Kazakh people- who are potentially protest electorate, which, Heaven forbid, will be claimed by Uzbekistan from one side and by Afghanistan from another side.

If Uzbekistan flares, I don’t exclude that Turkmenistan might be the next.

A.K.: What can you say about Chinese policy to Central Asia?

-It is quite selective and efficient. As I know Chinese positions are quite strong in some spheres in Kyrgyzstan, in educational branch they recently squeezed up Russians. Iran is trying to keep up to China in Tajikistan. But Rahmon fears Islamic tendencies, thus, he is very careful with Iran.

Chinese positions in Uzbekistan are also very strong, although Karimov is quite careful, and lately tends to set close ties with the US, especially in the military branch. But here, he might face big problems with Russia. Medvedev went to Tashkent before the recent SCO summit not in vain, apparently, they discussed this issue.

At the same time China plays big role in Afghanistan and Pakistan, not less than the US.

Moreover, China is pushing out the US from Pakistan, which used to be American patrimony.

China is brining weapons there and giving Pakistan government more money than the US. That is why, Americans are looking for eastern rout for cargoes delivery to Afghanistan. Chinese, in their turn, do not hinder American base location in Bishkek, although, could outbid it in 5 minutes.

 -A.K.: What is ahead in Central Asia?

– From my point of view, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are the next hot points, and the events might develop there quite soon. There is no a single factor in Kyrgyzstan showing that there won’t be any new bow net with unpredictable consequences.

Central Asia is a powderkeg of the universe. A kind of universal “Afghanistan” will exist and oppose “civilization” despite all the solutions by force and finances until people find a way to reach agreement with each other without using power and money. Nor power neither money managed to defeat Afghanistan. It brings us to an opportunity to search for new peacekeeping ideas. About that I wrote in my books: in Turkmenka and in Kabul-Caucasus, and in the new novel Century of Die-hard.

-Thank you for the interview.

A Sheep’s Head On Your Doorstep Is Bad Omen In Every Country, I Think


Bad signs of Turkmenistan


Arkady Dubnov

Russian wife and a sheep’s head

The only intrigue of the upcoming presidential election is to be able to win a Berdimuhamedov “gain” more than 90 percent of the vote.

In the next Sunday, February 12, Turkmenistan held regular elections of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. “Seven brave” who will challenge him the title of “leader of the era of the great revival” of Turkmenistan, Berdymukhammedov no danger to represent.

Nevertheless, for several days hard ddos-attacks are the two main opposition website – Gundogar.org and “Chronicles of Turkmenistan”. Continuing harassment and objectionable to the authorities. Human rights activist Natalya Shabunts threatened with death, a sign of what is thrown to the door of her apartment severed sheep’s head. This is an evil omen in the east. But it is the only person who dares to openly defend the rights of Turkmenistan’s Russian-speaking, with a double, the Russian and Turkmen, citizenship.

Two days ago, the well-known international organization Amnesty International called on Ashgabat to issue abroad to receive urgent medical treatment of the outstanding Turkmen breeders 61-year-old Geldy Kyarizova, whose only fault is that he is married to a Russian.

Geldy Kyarizov – a man who owes his symbol of the national emblem of Turkmenistan. More than 20 years ago, in 1991, belonged to his private stud colt was born Yanardag, eight years later became a world champion. The image of this handsome man, who became the pride of the famous Akhal-Teke horses, was placed in the center of the emblem of Turkmenistan. Stallion himself, along with six other thoroughbred Akhalteke at the end of the last century, was donated by the late Kyarizovym now Saparmurat Turkmenbashi.Horseman made other gifts to the former Serdar (leader), at his request had two horse-drawn parade in 2000 and 1000 horses. These events are still in Turkmenistan unforgettable.

In the 1980s, when Soviet Akhal-Teke horses in the country handed over to the meat, and this despite the fact that the horse is an animal for the Turkmen sacred. To draw attention to this barbarism, Kyarizov with a group of enthusiasts organized in those years, several horse runs on Akhalteke horses, in 1988, he was able to get them from Ashgabat to Moscow. At the risk of liberty and violating Soviet laws, which prohibited include horses in a private courtyard, he was able to revive the purebred Akhal-Teke breed. Akhal-Teke expensive for many years as the late and current President of Turkmenistan to give love to various personages and other crowned heads of foreign states. Geldy Kyarizov in 1997 was appointed head of the state association “Turkmen Atlary” (“Turkmen horses”).

However, a few years later horseman fell out of favor. He was accused of stealing horses, abuse of office and negligence. But even the court gave the Turkmen accusations Kyarizova in horse stealing. Prosecution witnesses they retracted their testimony against him, saying that made them under torture. Remained “negligence”, for her, he got five years in prison. During this time Kyarizov suffered two heart attacks and lost 30 lbs. To his Russian wife, Julia pieces of silver, at this time send for a purpose of people to throw stones at her. The family chose the house, tore down the stables, the horses were on the street. Most Kyarizovu in prison more than once been told if he refuses to Russian wife, all his troubles will end. He hinted at it in his time and himself Turkmenbashi.

Kyarizova freed under an amnesty in the autumn of 2007, came to power Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. The year before Kyarizov was included in the list of political prisoners compiled by Human Rights Watch. However, in April 2002 this author had the opportunity to join a public debate with Turkmenbashi, who argued that no political prisoners in Turkmenistan. Since then, the country’s no longer allowed …

Today, the family lived in Turkmenistan Kyarizova the position of the hostages. His wife, sister and wife who have Russian citizenship, are not produced in Russia. It did not help and recourse to the Russian Embassy in Ashgabat. Their home is under constant surveillance, their phone calls tapped. In vengeful loop of the Turkmen authorities, and was the younger sister of his wife breeders managed to get out of Turkmenistan. She was expelled from the Diplomatic Academy in Moscow, after in 2008, went back to study the son of President Berdymukhamedov – Serdar.

As for the upcoming presidential elections in Turkmenistan, the only intrigue them is able to win a Berdimuhamedov “type” more than 90 percent of the vote. Funny detail on this background is the news of his arrival in Ashgabat February 10 election experts from Belarus. Two of them, the CEC secretary Nikolai Lozovik, and CEC member Ivan Shchurok, included in the list of 158 Belarusian officials who are prohibited from entry into the EU. These sanctions were imposed against Belarus, including the EU because of electoral fraud and denial management in Minsk to release political prisoners.

Iran crisis: multi-vector policy of the Central Asian countries in question


Iran crisis: multi-vector policy of the Central Asian countries in question


Vitaly Volkov

The escalation of the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program directly affects the interests of the countries of Central Asia. Can they continue to pursue multi-vector policy, or they will have to decide where they stand?

The crisis over Iran’s nuclear program escalates. The world’s media write about the likely escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel, on the one hand, and Tehran – on the other. And discuss its various scripts, not excluding the military. From Turkmenistan, which has land and maritime border with Iran, has not heard any particular reaction. Do not hurry to set out its position and the other Caspian neighbor Iran – Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries. Meanwhile, the Iranian crisis is directly affecting their vital interests, experts say.

Central Asia can not stay away

Russian expert on crisis situations Korolkova Leo , in the case of military conflict in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and – to a lesser extent – Tajikistan, get into the field of view of global players. “This conflict is not perceived by many as an attempt to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons, as well as an attempt to change the system that has developed in one of the richest hydrocarbon region of the world” – he said.

According to Russian experts, the escalation of Kazakhstan will be involved in it through the Caspian Sea. “Uzbekistan is already included in the basic military infrastructure of the United States and NATO, and a military airfield in Khanabad, it is possible to reopen the U.S. could be in for a few days. Kyrgyz airport “Manas” would necessarily be involved for transit cargo and troops to Afghanistan, “- says Korolkov. But, he continues, is most closely associated with neighboring Iran, Turkmenistan, on the one hand, it has extensive contracts with Tehran, including supplying the gas there, but on the other – allowing the Pentagon to use the runways to Mary for operations in Afghanistan.

The end of multi-vector policy?

Leo Korolkov believes that the Iranian crisis entails the actual end of a multi-vector policy, which is still trying to hold the countries of Central Asia. “Unlike the situation with the war in Afghanistan, where all officially opposed the Taliban, is now Turkmenistan and other countries have to decide who they would support”, – said Russian expert. As an example, he refers to the latest publication in the newspaper “Moscow News”, according to which Beijing has asked Ashgabat answers to several questions related to this role in a possible Iranian conflict.

In turn, a German expert on Central Asia Gunter Knabe said that the region is not highly interested in a military conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran, and their position in the current situation is not so bad. They can continue to supply its hydrocarbons in all areas of the more intense the smaller the market Iranian oil, and hope to increase their prices. On the other hand, in all these countries there are NATO troops, primarily the United States. “This gives the Central Asian countries to raise their own terms to the United States, which are dependent on the NDN to Afghanistan, and not succumb to pressure from Washington on the Iran issue” – indicates Knabe.

China and Russia propose to define

But China and Russia, convinced the German expert, will inevitably be offered to these countries to determine their position in the event of an escalation of the Iranian crisis. So now they have to be prepared to ensure that if necessary, take enhanced measures to ensure the safety of pipelines and have a concept in the case of large refugee flows.”Finally, the leaders of Central Asian states should be clear that the growing danger of an attack in the West and Israel on Iran, not to mention the fact this attack, help radical Islamists to spread their ideology to the masses and convince them of hostility to Islam of the West” – considers Knabe.

Vice-President of the European branch of the International Crisis Group Deletro Allenbelieves that the military conflict in Iran would be catastrophic for the region, but until then so far away. And the situation does not require the countries of Central Asia out of a multi-vector policy. Deletro convinced that Turkmenistan, which followed a policy of neutrality, with an increase in tension all the more necessary to continue the same course.”Kazakhstan, which is located further away from Iran and other conflict zones, and from which no one does not require a clear position on Iran, too, there is no reason to intervene in the conflict. Another thing – Uzbekistan, for which, as for Turkmenistan, Afghanistan’s neighbors could bring trouble after the withdrawal of NATO troops from the Hindu Kush, “- says Vice-President of the European branch of the International Crisis Group.

The specificity of Tajikistan

Günter Knabe draws attention to the special relationship linking Tehran and Dushanbe, which strongly emphasize the cultural unity of the Tajik and the Iranian people. “In addition, Dushanbe, is counting on military assistance to Iran in the event of a conflict with one of his neighbors,” – says German expert. Alain Deletro indicates that “for the good working relationship with Iran, Tajikistan, no blame. No one expects from Dushanbe, there will solve the problem of Iran’s nuclear program. “

Source :: Deutsche Welle

For Kazakhstan the Silk Road Leads To Deutschland

Nazarbayev is preparing for a strategic partnership with Germany


February 7 to Berlin to visit President Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan. Germany hopes to conclude from this Central Asian country into a strategic partnership, which implies an exchange of raw materials to technology. will be held February 7-8 visit by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to Germany, the first since 2009. In addition to meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel), the program host provides performance Nazarbayev at the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP) and the Kazakh delegation dinner in East Committee of German Economy. During the visit the parties intend to conclude a large number of agreements, especially in the economic sphere. As acknowledged by the experts, the main document, which is calculated Nazarbayev signed and Merkel – is an agreement on strategic raw materials, industrial and innovative partnership. “It is a unique agreement, embodying all the ideas of German Ostpolitik,” – said in an interview with Deutsche Welle, Alexander Rahr ( Alexander Rahr), director of the Center named Berthold Beitza German Society for Foreign Policy. A similar agreement is in Berlin with Russia, and now appears to Kazakhstan, he said. “German companies have access to the resources of Kazakhstan, and Astana – preferences for acquiring new technologies”, – explained the essence of the contract Rar.Meanwhile, details of a future agreement, negotiations for which were, according to the parties, not easy, and lasted over a year, has not yet been disclosed. “After signing this document, Germany will receive a” green light “for economic expansion in the region, which has long been eyeing in Berlin” – said the editor of German magazine Zenith Alexander von Hahn (Alexander von Hahn). Kazakhstan need another partner, Nazarbayev’s visit is needed to saving maneuver on the international scene, says German expert on Central Asia, Gunter Knabe (Günter Knabe).Kazakh leader set himself the task of rapprochement with Europe as a partner, who can not and does not want to be a threat for Astana. “At a time when Kazakhstan is sandwiched between China and Russia, and is constantly weakening the U.S. position, Kazakhstan needs another partner,” – said Knabe. “for Nazarbayev’s visit to Berlin – an opportunity not only to demonstrate its status as one of the main partners of the EU in the region,” – indicates the Alexander von Hahn. “Kazakhstan needs international prestige. Country wants to see itself as a bridge between Europe, Asia and the Islamic world,” – adds Alexander Rahr of the German Society for Foreign Policy. “The meeting with Merkel as a continuation of dialogue on the prospects of cooperation with Germany and the EU in a very difficult period of growing uncertainty,” – says von Hahn. Increasing uncertainty uncertainty, he said, there remains both in terms of who will be at the helm of the country after the departure of Nazarbayev and in regard to the rapidly changing geopolitical situation around Kazakhstan. “I am referring to the growing crisis in Russia, the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan and the economic expansion of China”, – explained the browser. Against the backdrop of the fact that the West’s relations with Iran worsen, and the European Union in the near future is going to give up Iran’s energy resources, both Kazakhstan supplier of oil and gas may obtain additional benefits from their exports, predicts Gunter Knabe. “Astana may be a winner, although she is not interested in the outbreak of open conflict between the West and Iran,” – said German expert. Nazarbayev, according to Knabe, do not forget that this position has allowed Kazakhstan to Berlin to take a critical position for the Kazakh elite, the chairman of OSCE in 2010. “His visit to the President of Kazakhstan wishes to express gratitude for the service previously, and for what kind of assistance at the time, Germany had to ethnic Germans from Kazakhstan”, – said Knabe. Human rights activists are also preparing for the visit of the Kazakh president’s visit to prepare and human rights activists. Hugh Williamson of the German branch of Human Rights Watch said the government should raise the Federal Republic of Germany in the negotiations a number of issues of human rights issues and the political situation in Kazakhstan.”There are three most important themes: the last parliamentary elections, the investigation of the tragedy in Zhanaozen, as well as the problems of Kazakhstan’s labor laws,” – said Williamson. Human Rights Watch has plans this week to send the Chancellor of his appeal. According to the defenders of Germany should at least reconsider their plans for closer ties with Kazakhstan, and wonder whether Astana after the bloody events in Zhanaozen continue to be stable and reliable partner. Author: Michael Bushuev Editor: Vladimir Dorokhov Deutshe Welle , February 6, 2012

Will Islam Karimov Accept World Bank Analysis of Roghun Project Impact?

Terms of assessing the impact of Roghun project may be reviewed

Payrav Chorshanbiyev

Handbook of Swiss company Poyry, engaged in carrying out the assessment of environmental and social impacts of the project “Rogun” intends to ask the Government of Tajikistan to extend the completion of appraisal work.

According to the Tajik service of Radio “Liberty” the head of the expert group Poyry dumped by Robert, the experts group behind the schedule of works and the data necessary to develop a revised schedule for completion of the research.

The negotiations of the World Bank, which are held under the auspices of the estimated work with the Government of Tajikistan on this matter is expected next week, reports radio “Ozodi.”

According to him, the final date of completion of the assessment of environmental and social impact of Roghun project will be agreed during the negotiations.

Earlier, in December this year in the World Bank Dushanbe “AP”, reported that the Director of Strategy and WB projects in the Europe and Central Asia, Theodore Ahlers, during his visit to the Republic requested the Government to develop a revised schedule for completion of the research, together with consultants, taking into account the recent delays. However, if the representation of the Bank did not specify reasons for the revision of the schedule.

Recall that in May last year, the World Bank reported that the latest results of evaluation studies will be obtained for about 18 months, ie until October 2012.

World Bank at the request of the Tajik government is funding a two key evaluative studies of Rogun – estimated feasibility study (OTEI) and assessment of environmental and social impacts of the project (ESIA).

As a result of an international tender, which took place under the supervision of the World Bank, a consortium led by Coyne & Bellier, engaged in carrying out feasibility study (a contract signed on February 8, 2011), a Swiss company Poyry – holding ESIA (contract signed on March 25, 2011).

Against the construction project is the Rogun Uzbekistan, expressing fears of a dam break in connection with a possible earthquake. However, in Tajikistan say the fears are groundless Tashkent, the country’s other stations are working with this type of dam, which have proved their resilience over four decades.

Rogun construction site with the designed height of 335 meters is located 110 km east of Dushanbe. Installed power station, which will be installed six units will be 3.6 MW.

Estimated cost of the station on the Vakhsh River, which is inside the river in Tajikistan, according to the government of the republic, is $ 2.2 billion

America and Egypt … from serving on the other knockout?

America and Egypt … from serving on the other knockout?

Hamdy Howeidi


See Egyptian-American relations deteriorated sharply under the insistence of the Egyptian government to charge and detain citizens Omrakin various charges in a case known as the funding suspicious organizations, civil society, on the government of Egypt, Egypt refused to strongly interfere in the conduct of investigations to the belief that this is an internal affair Egyptian On the other side The United States tried to American pressure in all its cards on Egypt, but to no avail. 
it is her part, Susan Rice, U.S. Ambassador at the United Nations, that the detention of Egyptian authorities have 19 Americans in Cairo would have dire consequences for the relations between Egypt and the United States of America. 
Rice said in an interview TV station with “CBS” that “Washington is talking to Cairo, constantly, in this regard, including through the days and last hours.” 
Rice said that U.S. citizens detained in Cairo have been working to build a more democratic society and did nothing at all just that. 
and saw the newspaper (The Christian Science Monitor) U.S., relations between Egypt and the United States break down gradually, especially after the Egyptian authorities to prosecute U.S. citizens and turning them into felonies to begin trial on charges of management organizations in Egypt without obtaining the required permits. 
The paper said that this position of would bring the tension between Egypt and Washington to the “breaking point”, referring to ignore Egypt to the demands of U.S. Secretary of State “Hillary Clinton” and the U.S. Congress for the immediate release of Americans accused foreign funding of NGOs in Egypt and to allow them to travel and return to their country, so as not to collapse the coalition that between the two countries continued for a long time. 
The newspaper pointed out that the first steps the collapse of the relationship between the two countries will be targeted to raise U.S. aid to Egypt, estimated at U.S. $ 1.5 billion annually of which about $ 1.3 billion spent in the form of military aid. 
At this critical juncture, is seeking United States to maintain its relations with Egypt after the fall of former Egyptian President “Hosni Mubarak,” which was a close ally of Washington since he took office, while U.S. officials were much attention to the junta that has ruled Egypt since, in the hope of maintaining the alliance with Egypt in this turbulent time of transition in Egypt. 
and increased tension between Egypt and America, and worsened in recent months since the government launched the Egyptian campaign of defamation against organizations funded by the United States, and prevented foreign workers of these organizations is to travel, and began a criminal investigation with 19 Americans, raising the risks and crises in the face of the United States, according to the newspaper. 
expected the newspaper “New York Times,” U.S. more tension in Egyptian-US relations in the coming days, following the assignment of 19 Americans among 40 people to the criminal court on Sunday. 
The newspaper said the strategic relationship the U.S. Egyptian going through its worst phase in 30 years. 
She noted that the referral of Americans nineteen to trial on the issue of financing foreign civil organizations will not pass easily. 
, the newspaper said investigations with the Americans in Egypt comes at a time resound the U.S. warnings urgent and explicit that such actions could jeopardize the annual U.S. aid to Egypt of $ 1.55 billion annually, of which 1.3 billion in military aid. The newspaper said that “Hillary Clinton” and U.S. Secretary of State told the Egyptian foreign minister “Mohammed Amr” during Togdama the Conference on Security in the “Munich”, Germany, that there are many problems cropped up due to the NGOs that may affect the relations between the two countries, and said clearly that the situation Worse and may affect the aid. 
The newspaper said that Alkoonjris U.S. committed the State Department not to be passed aid this year, but after making sure that Egypt is making progress Nhawwaldemqratih, including respect for the independence of civil society organizations under investigation now. 
also said U.S. President “Barack Obama, “the Marshal” Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, “the President of the ruling military council in Egypt that the investigation with the Americans and organizations working in the fields of human rights and democracy, represents a major failure in the transition to democracy. Also signed 40 seats U.S. to address each of the “Hillary Clinton” and “Tantawi” has the same warning. 
The Senator, “Patrick Leahy” Chairman of the Committee in charge of foreign aid in Congress under the guidance similar warning. 
The newspaper said that America rejects accusations of Egyptian civil society organizations, private International Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute, who are related to leadership of the U.S. Congress, that it is working to undermine stability and t in Egypt by funding the protests and demonstrations.
despite warnings that pervaded U.S. newspapers on Monday of the risks and repercussions of the decision by the Egyptian authorities convert 19 Americans to court for the start of their trial on charges of management organizations without obtaining the required permits, and tampering with the country’s stability, and that this procedure offers friendship Egyptian-American, and aid granted by Washington to Cairo to the risk of loss, but they carry fraught cry of horror from the ongoing transformation of Egypt, and the beginning of its independence, and getting out of the cave dependency, space freedom and the search for their interest without regard for any considerations. 
The American newspapers that the effect of magic “aid” that were used by America to make the Cairo bow to her wishes it ended the January Uprising, they are afraid of hard loss of its alliance with Cairo, which is the cornerstone of its strategy in the Middle East and ensure security of its ally pampered Israel, arguing that the warnings and threats to U.S. officials, is only “the cries of a drowning man who is looking for those who save him from death.” 
and considered the “New York Times” that the decision of the Egyptian authorities to convert 19 Americans and others to trial in the case of receipt of civic organizations external funding to tamper with the country’s stability threatens the coalition the three decades between the United States and Egypt, the decision raises the tension between the two countries and reaches its peak in the time of an important move by Egypt to democracy after the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak, and angry protesters battling security forces in the streets of the capital and other major cities, which makes the economy in need of pressing for billions of foreign aid. 
She explained that the U.S. fears the loss of dependency Egypt after the revolution, The first time officials say officials, Egyptian prosecutors have a warrant out of control, but the government, including the Attorney General, under the direct authority of the Military Council, noting that the investigation was accompanied by drumbeat escalating hostile statements of the United States by the government, which suggests that Washington distributes cash to stir up unrest in the streets. 
At a news conference Sunday, announced the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation “, Abul-Naga”, which oversees foreign aid, that the government “would not cut off the power “on the case .. The government will not hesitate to expose the plans of State that threaten the stability of the country,” explained Western diplomats that the Egyptian government found it appropriate to mobilize support by stoking the differences with Washington, which in spite of financial donations, and the resentment of the people here because of its support for Israel and its invasion of Iraq. 
The newspaper “Los Angeles Times” said that the Egyptian-American relations fell to their lowest levels in three decades, Resolution provocative dramatically, threatening the aid, but it highlights the widening gap between Washington and one of its closest allies in the Middle East after the revolutions that swept across North Africa and the Arab region. 
the paper quoted analysts and activists as saying that the investigation continued, despite American pressure confirms that Egypt after the revolution, independence from liability America, and became looking for their interests without regard to any other considerations, unlike the situation before the revolution that was the U.S. demands a sword hanging over the necks of everyone and due execution, and raises concern Washington strongly she feels is losing its charm and its control over Cairo and the paper aid. 
For their part, were not the newspaper “Washington Post” free to comment on this issue, warning also that this step provocative and could deprive Egypt of aid and interference relations in America in a dark tunnel, and said that pressure on the relationship already strained between the ruling generals in Egypt and the Obama administration, threatens to break the links and coalition out of Egypt cave liability America. 
She added: “Washington has a good relationship with the generals in Egypt under President Hosni Mubarak, when he was seen to the army as a bulwark against “Islamists”, and the Mubarak regime was Arab ally the most important in Israel, but these relations have been strained over the past year also fought the generals in a country with almost daily street protests, and the problems economic and reached an unprecedented level of deterioration, and accuse the military leaders of foreign often secretly working to destabilize Egypt during the difficult period of transition. ” 
In response to U.S. pressure, officials said they were not able to interfere in the matter jurisdiction, noting that this decision to pay Charles Dunn, director of the House one of the organizations accused of destabilizing the country, said “This is a dangerous escalation .. I think that the army is trying to regain some credibility on the street by showing that he can succeed in the face of the United States. ” 
said the magazine “Newsweek” America said that the campaign against civil society organizations in Egypt looks to avenge personally by the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Faiza Abu Naga, which was the target of these organizations during the campaign in the parliamentary elections in 2010 and accused of buying votes. 
The magazine said in a follow-up to the implications of the investigations conducted by Egypt with the organizations of the international community and the charges faced by foreign funding and transferred to the Criminal Court, that after a year of protests, which are still plaguing Egypt since the revolution that ousted President Mubarak, the military council cast the responsibility of continuing unrest on foreign hands. 
In his search for a scapegoat, Council launched broad investigations with civil society organizations. But the attack on the non-governmental organizations and interrogate American citizens and prevent them from leaving the country, has strained US-Egyptian relations, including threatening military assistance provided by the United States to Egypt. 
In the opinion of Newsweek that the smear campaign against organizations that are supposed to enjoy the support from abroad may be treated with the public opinion with apprehension. 
During the summer, the Council launched a military free rein to Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, which is described by the magazine as the greatest enemy of the financing of foreign and civil society in the country. 
She explained that Abul-Naga, one of the ministers the few who had remained since the era of Mubarak activists obstinate against human rights organizations and sources of funding abroad since taking office in 2004. 
but did not get a break large to pursue them. 
and remember the newspaper that funding Melody has always been a sensitive issue in Egypt, but the raid offices of civil society organizations and shut it down, put the military on a collision course with the legislation in the U.S. the new link continued aid to the commitment of the Army to transfer power to a democratic government. 
Newsweek quoted Stephen Mknezny, executive director of the Democracy Project Middle East in Washington, saying that the fact that this is threatening to cut off military aid, this is a real threat to the relationship between Egypt and the United States on a larger scale. 
When Barack Obama took the presidency of the United States, decided to run to try to improve relations with a number of countries in the Middle East. 
, says Michelle Dunn, Director, Center for Rafik Hariri, the Middle East in the Atlantic in Washington, the Government of Egypt said in confidence during the transition period from the Bush to Obama: one thing can remove the tension in the relationship, a return to the old way in dealing with granting non-governmental organizations, ie the provision of grants organizations registered only. already stopped the Obama administration to stop the grants to organizations not registered in Egypt after they had been given grants to organizations registered and unregistered alike since 2004, although the arms of the smaller of the U.S. government such as the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labour Office has continued to finance non- recorded. 
and follow the paper: In this controversy, showing Faiza Abu Naga, which is considered by many to engineer the current campaign, and is described as highly intelligent and committed too including some call revenge personally. 
Faapo Naga, former ambassador of the United Nations is fully aware how it works, human rights groups abroad, and are seen Kmaadh strong Mubarak, and was itself targeted by civil society organizations during the campaign in the parliamentary elections in 2010, when accused of buying votes. 
It seems that Abu Naga mobilize increasing influence with the presence of the military council. 
and has been for years pressing for the flow of U.S. aid to stop the government-controlled, which allows it to distribute aid as they want. 
But after the revolution started in the U.S. aid is distributed to non-registered also in a bid to make them part of the future of Egypt Democrat, a move hostile to Abu Naga .. In the meantime, I ended the honeymoon between the Revolution and the military council a few months after the fall of Mubarak, the Board found itself under increasing criticism from human rights groups because of the emergency law and military trials of civilians. 
and see without the intensity of the campaign against civil society suggest that concerns Abu Naga civil society organizations and found an echo in the military. 
concluded The newspaper report saying that many observers believe that the real problem is not the attack on the American organizations, but the target of trying to hold the leaders of Egypt.