|Institute for Middle East|
The Taliban is temporarily slowed down its consultations with the Americans in Qatar. It seems that this is related to several aspects.
The first, and, of course, important – it is recent developments related to the shooting of Afghan civilians and an American sergeant in the ensuing mass disturbances. The Taliban are becoming more heed to the voice of the “crowd” and to actively use this fact to his campaign. Such was the case with the burning of the Koran by U.S. soldiers at a base in Bagram. The Taliban, in this case can not ignore the fact of mass disturbances and maintain at the same time negotiations “with the main enemy.” It’s an interesting point, because they used to such attention is not paid to public opinion, at least so clearly.
The second point. Americans have absolutely not prepared to discuss the unconditional withdrawal of Afghan President Karzai Hamidva from his post. In their version, it could be a gradual incorporation of the Taliban in power, with the unconditional resignation of weapons and the recognition of the partnership model with the current regime. Something like “circuit of the Tajik”, with its nuances of course. This is evidenced by the White House’s intention to keep its troops until at least 2014 with an emphasis on training the Afghan national army and security services. Recall that the recognition of the generals of the Pentagon “is now possible to rely only on a percentage of the total size of the entire Afghan army.” Hard to imagine that two years instructors will make a “miracle” and do what they could not do it for more than ten years. Especially since the main partners in this difficult work of the French at the present time has not yet set a date for withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan. The current battle for the Elysee Palace dictates the rules of the game, and now discusses the complete withdrawal of the military next year.
The third moment. The new leadership of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence deliberately slows down the pace of negotiations between the Taliban and the Americans. However, there are several reasons for this behavior. One of them – a secret contacts to activate Americans through the State Department and intelligence agencies with the Baloch leaders in Pakistan. These are two major groups, “Baluchistan Liberation Army” (H.Marri) and the Balochistan Republican Army (B.Bugti). In this action the Americans, Pakistanis linked in this direction with an increase in the number of attacks by separatists (600 episodes, which more than doubled as compared to 2010) on the Pakistani government officials and security forces. At the same time the Baluch leaders made at different levels of official figures in Washington, which will undoubtedly irritate Islamabad. The White House officially recognized the Baloch from the above two groups, “the official party to the conflict”, which means that they legitimize. It is considered the Pakistani military and the leadership “as the actual declaration of war.” At the same time, Americans are beginning to untwist the subject “of the imminent humanitarian disaster in Balochistan”, which dictates the adoption of urgent measures and tolerance “in the tribal zone” of charitable foundations and UN agencies. In the same series should be considered and the desire to open the White House, the U.S. General Consulate in Quetta.
For what it’s all done?
First, the “hang” of Islamabad and to outline a clear perspective of his large-scale conflict, “his home” if the Pakistanis will continue to take a “non-constructive position” on the settlement of the Afghan and NATO troops on the supply logistics corridors through Pakistan.
Second, the intentions of Americans (of course in return for their support) to turn the Baluch in the hammer to minimize or reduce the impact of “Al Qaeda” in the “tribal areas”. As far as this idea is productive, hard to judge, because the balance of power in the region was formed historically, and since such an operation, Baloch will definitely conflict with the Pashtun tribes that have a “jihadi” wing.
Third, Washington intends to use the Baluchis in full as a subversive force against Iran. Here they were inspired by the example “Jundullah”, whose members actually perform the task for a long time the CIA to conduct operations against the regime in Tehran.
If you add up all the foregoing, it can be concluded that Washington is once again began to “muddy” the game in the region with unknown AfPak “regional studies consequences” that are unlikely to be welcomed by central governments in the region. To encourage separatist sentiment is a very dangerous thing and can lead to tragic consequences.