||Rahmon hardly make it to the next presidential elections, started his political intrigue lead to his removalIn November last year, when the attention of Russian and Central Asian media was focused on the “case of the pilots’ Vladimir Sadovnichy and Alexei Rudenko in Tajikistan is closed, there was another event – a meeting of the board under the chairmanship of the Emomali Rahmon.
And if the “pilot case” has not only lazy, then information on the Presidential Council on November 24 and did not become a part of the media. Although, in my opinion, the decisions made at this Council, in its significance surpass everything that happened in Tajikistan over the past year. I will say more. Analysis is not in my possession Protocol № 32-20 dated November 24, 2011, signed by the head of the Administration of the President of Tajikistan M. Dulatov and approved by the President on November 26, suggests that in power “Dangara clan”, led by Rahmon, ready to change the foreign policy Course Tajikistan.And the new course will be more than an unpleasant surprise for the Russian and Iran.
Protocol № 32-30 – welcome to the world of lawlessness and security forces of political repression
Referring to the content of the document (see scan of original pages here , here , here , here , here and here .) Theme of the meeting of the Council, “On consideration of the social situation in the country and the objectives and responsibilities of responsible persons and offices”, originally an ordinary meeting of the impression that the officials conducted a dozen a week. Ingredients present (Kakharov AA – Minister of Interior, Khudoyarov BT – Minister of Justice, Yatimov SS – Secretary of the National Security Council, Salimzoda Sh – Attorney General, Azizov AA Fattayev C . S. – Adviser to the President Tadzhikestan, Holiқov AG – Chairman of the Committee on Religious Affairs, Assad AA – Head of the Secretariat of the President of Tajikistan) – also has a personal emergency. Questions can only call the absence of representatives of the Ministry of Security, but it is understandable. Neither Rahmon nor his entourage did not trust the Ministry of Security of Tajikistan, believing that it is under the full control of the Russian special services.
Actually, the whole of the Council consisted of Rahmon speech, after which he started giving orders. It is these orders that are of particular interest to any analyst.
Some of these orders are a standard set of administrative measures against religious organizations and movements that the Tajik refers to “extremist”:
- strengthen the monitoring of the activities of religious institutions, especially mosques and use all means and forces to combat radical and extremist movements, including Salafi (p.1 protocol order Kaharov AA, the Minister of Internal Affairs, Yatimov SS , Secretary of the National Security Council and Holiқovu AG, Chairman of the Committee for Religious Affairs);
- strengthen the process of withdrawal from public places and shops tapes and disks containing radical religious materials (paragraph 3 of the Protocol, the commission Yatimov SS, Secretary of the National Security Council and Kaharov AA, Minister of the Interior, responsible public administration and local government executive bodies);
- take the necessary operational measures to arrest and banning illegal religious schools (p.5 protocol order Holiқovu AG, Chairman of the Committee for Religious Affairs);
But special attention to orders, according to the protocol 32-20, play activities against the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. Here the events are more diverse and includes not only purely administrative action, but also a set of operational activities uniformed RT:
- in coordination with local government officials and local entrepreneurs with funding to keep under constant review the activities of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, especially the activities of its leaders and members, to take the necessary measures to prepare for a full list of members of the Islamic Renaissance Party, determine the methods and techniques of their missionary work to advance our operational goals, including – to create incentives for them to leave the party (step 2 protocol, the commission instructed Kaharov AA, the Minister of Internal Affairs, Yatimov SS, Secretary of the National Security Council and Holiқovu AG , chairman of the Committee for Religious Affairs).
In fact, this paragraph provides complete control over the activities of the IRP and its leaders. But at the same time put and purpose – a surgical procedure to achieve that members of the party left the IRP. Particularly touched by the passage that to finance the activities of law enforcement agencies should “use the local businesses.” Such legal innovation (contrary, by the way, the legislation of Tajikistan) – not just a new word in the world struggle with the opposition, but neoskudevayuschy extra income for the “fighters against religious extremism.” Basic question – what would happen to an entrepreneur who does not agree to its money “used” Tajik law enforcement agencies? As will be stated the charges against him, the refusal to cooperate? The obstruction of law enforcement? Or, on the principle of “who is not with us,” – promoting religious extremists?
A similar measure in lawlessness of civil servants, and this is how it should be called a state of affairs that prevailed today at RT, gives new impetus to the corrosive Tajikistan corruption. But the implications of this decision are not exhausted. In terms of fiscal poverty, Rahmon, in fact, creates an additional feeder for security forces, to lure them by buying by Tajik (and not only) business loyalty “Dangara clan.”
However, this point – this is only an indication and a certain direction, in which the efforts of law enforcement officers should strive. Further items include the protocol and specific measures against the IRP.
All the same, the third paragraph of the Protocol: “checking passports of citizens, especially in the capital, to find the place and time of their visit, to determine the party affiliation of citizens … With the help of government experts to identify the sources that fund political parties, including the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan; take the necessary steps to control their financial activities. ”
Order Hudoyarovu BT, Minister of Justice, AA Azizov and Fattaevu SS, Adviser to the President of Tajikistan, “take control of the political parties and the media” (p.4).Simple, tasteful and again – without being distracted by such things as the Constitution of the Republic of Tajikistan. And again – without specifying what is meant by the term “take control”: censorship? Antioppozitsionnyh to publish materials? Speaking of this form of work speaks directly paragraph 6, the commission Fattaevu SS, Advisor to the President of the Republic of Tajikistan in accordance with the relevant government authorities’ to take necessary measures for the publication in the media of the facts of illegal activities of the leaders of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. ” It’s about what else illegal activity in the presence of such a dense “cap” is all about? I do not about that if that will come up in the offices of security agencies and Rahmon’s administration? You will, but there is the impression that is preparing the groundwork for a public trial of the “enemies of the Tajik people – religious extremists”, a plot against the Republic and President.
Indirectly, this is evidenced by this paragraph from step 7 (order Azizov AA, Adviser to the President Tadzhikestan, Kaharov AA, the Minister of Internal Affairs, Yatimov SS, Secretary of the National Security Council, Sh Salimzoda , the Attorney General, the Supreme Court and other state leaders and authorities), “to take the necessary steps to maintain constant readiness of soldiers and officers.” Ready for what?
Generally, familiar with both the protocol and to another document – a statement of MIA “On measures for the implementation of the working protocol Council in the presence of President of Tajikistan, N 32-20 of 24 November 2011,” signed by the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan, General Rakhimov the question arises: officials say that there is threat to the stability of the Republic of Tajikistan on “religious extremists” in the first place – from the Islamic Renaissance Party. But if you carefully analyze these two documents, it becomes apparent that deliberately provoked resentment from the top. Return once more to claim 5 minutes:
- “- To take necessary and effective measures to ensure that all students return illegally studying in religious schools outside the country and warn people about the prohibition of such studies in the future.
- take the necessary operational measures to stop the operation of illegal religious schools;
- agreement with the Executive and the relevant bodies of Rasht district, convert to sports and manufacturing, those objects that are registered for social activities and are used as a mosque. “
If you add all the things mentioned above – increased passport controls, restrictions on freedom of movement, restrictions on the right of religious education, the media campaign against the IRP and a number of special events – in particular, in Section 3, there are such:
- to review the activities and the role of women in the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, and take appropriate action.
- use of existing capabilities, identify those who participated in strikes in 1992 (during the Civil War) and to take the necessary measures in their homes. “), the conclusion is clear – the legal opposition, and IRP – first of all, being pushed to overt action against the regime.
What is so clearly provoke discontent? Yes, and given the fact that the credibility of the authorities in Tajikistan today is very low (for example, a recent study published by the “Eurasia”, proves that with setbacks in legal disputes in the public institutions of justice, the ordinary citizens of Tajikistan are increasingly looking for solutions to their conflicts of opinion leaders, read – to the same opposition). Provoke resentment and, at the same time, to create a great feeder for special services, alert the army units and special forces … For what?
You can attribute it to incompetence Rahmon and his entourage. But it will be a big mistake. Yes, the current regime in Tajikistan is incompetent in all things, with regard to economic and social issues. But in matters of maintaining its own power – it may well be the envy of competence and European leaders. The issue of retaining power in the East – it is not a matter of politics, it is a matter of physical survival. So what pushes Rahmon at provoking conflict?
Something about the survival of the regime in a poor country
If you carefully analyze the performances of the Tajik officials, it may give the impression that the main problem of RT – a kind of “religious extremists” and “opposition” whose machinations prevented Tajikistan tomorrow to enter the kingdom of abundance and prosperity. But it is – a lie. The main problem in Tajikistan – is the president Emomali Rahmon and his entourage. In a secret telegram to the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe, dated February 16, 2010, describes how Rahmon controls the economy of the former Soviet Republic, “All power in the country, from the President to the policeman on the corner, covered by cronyism and corruption. Rahmon and his family control the main companies of the country, including the largest bank, and they are hard to protect their business interests, without regard to the damage to the economy as a whole. As one of the foreign ambassadors, President Rahmon prefers to control 90% of ten-dollar pie rather than 30% of the hundred-dollar. “ All industrial exports Tajikistan – are aluminum and electricity from hydropower. However, a large portion of the proceeds “technically owned by the state,” Tajik Aluminium Company “(TALCO) settles in certain mysterious offshore company controlled by the president,” the authors dispatch, adding sadly, “the State Budget of the income goes to a small part.”
Confirmation of what they say in diplomatic cables can be heard from ordinary Tajiks. All my interlocutors in Dushanbe said that in the country there was not a telephone pole, which would not have privatized many daughters-in-law and close relatives Rahman, not to mention the shops and businesses. I was struck by the unanimous conviction of my interlocutors that Rahmon mentally healthy, no measure does not know and has lost touch with reality.
Rahmon’s regime has brought the country to a complete collapse, destruction and dire poverty. Tajikistan today – it is the poorest of the former Soviet republics.Average annual income of a resident of Tajikistan is 260 dollars. Tajikistan’s GDP per capita has one thousand dollars a year (in Russia the figure was eight thousand dollars). 60 percent of Tajiks live below the poverty line, the unemployment rate is 40 percent. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, remittances of Tajik migrant workers in Russia are two annual budgets in the country. Tajikistan’s budget is $ 485 million, and from Russia in the republic shall transfer $ 1 billion, and legally – only $ 500 million if not the help of Tajik migrants, the situation in Tajikistan would be worse than even in Afghanistan.
How ironic that it is the money of those who Rahmon condemned to poverty in their own country and forced to work abroad – maintain social stability, involuntarily working to preserve the regime. Issyakni this thread – and the people’s anger sweep Rahmon and his entourage, all Dangara clan, the whole army of footmen and servants who serve them. Need to see the eyes of Dushanbe, when they talk about their “president”. All with whom I spoke were confident that a little more in the country will begin a revolution. I do not know how to call her later, but it is clear that Rahmon waiting at best fate of Muammar Gaddafi. Members of his family, his inner circle already packing their bags, buy property abroad and transfer downloaded from the republic money to foreign accounts. Therefore, I repeat: the issue of preservation of power – it is a matter of physical survival Rahmon and his family and “Dangara clan.”
And on this, to put it mildly, a difficult social background Rahmon picks risky political game, painted in 32-20 minutes. On what he expects? That gives it confidence?Where such a strange desire to go into open conflict, which certainly also plesnet Tajik blood?
The answer to this question can be obtained by: first, instead of just a “conflict” to use the term “controlled conflict”. And then everything falls into place – actions Rahmon and his team aim to purge the political field. By provoking speeches disgruntled (and well to these speeches prepared, ensuring the loyalty of security forces), “Dangara clan” will be able to completely destroy the opposition and to ensure absolute control of the country. A control that will allow him to carry out any change of course in both domestic and foreign policy.
About the features of assistance to Tajikistan and gratitude-Rahmon
Immediately raises the question – what kind of change of direction in foreign policy is all about? And here comes the “second.” If we compare the action in suppressing Rahmon “religious extremism” legal opposition – the IRP, with similar actions of another, to the other post-Soviet state – Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan, opened meaningful coincidences, practically – identity. Azerbaijan is actively “Media” of the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan, are mass arrests of activists of the Azerbaijani counterintelligence reports of disclosure of “terrorist cells” who planned to assassinate Israeli diplomats and prominent figures of the Jewish diaspora. Here’s how to comment on what is happening today in Azerbaijan, leading expert of “Heritage Foundation” Ariel Cohen: “In recent years, relations between Baku and Tehran steadily deteriorating due to strengthening ties between Azerbaijan and the United States and NATO … Iranian pressure on Baku gives the United States and the West in general right with stronger response … In the face of Iranian threats to Azerbaijan seeks to work more closely with the West … The U.S. should increase the volume of cooperation with Azerbaijan, including in the areas of counter-terrorism, intelligence and strengthen border security. The Obama administration should take the initiative in their own hands and push Europe and Turkey to cooperate. “
And here is what the official report Specialist Congressional Research Service (CRS), Jim Nichol, “After September 11, 2001, Tajikistan has expressed willingness to cooperate closely with the United States, but could not go on it because of the negative attitude of Moscow.” Add – and with Rahmon declare a “special relationship with Iran.” Cynically speaking, Rahmon hoped that his position will be paid. What is actually happening – Russia actually subsidizing the Tajik economy, providing 90% of its petroleum products on preferential terms, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has invested in energy projects and small business RT. Thus, direct investment in Iran Tajik economy in the nine months of 2011 amounted to approximately $ 15 million, while trade between Tajikistan and Iran in 2011 amounted to more than $ 204 million (and the goods were imported from Iran to the tune of over $ 161 million).
But at the same time – increasing amount of direct funding from the U.S.. According to the report of the Congress, from 1992 to 2008 in Tajikistan has received irrevocable basis for $ 778.6 million (Freedom Support Act). In 2009 – $ 35.8 million, 2010 – $ 48.3 million in 2011 – $ 47.1 million must be remembered that these figures do not include funding for programs in Tajikistan, which is facilitated through the Defense and U.S. Department of Energy and non-governmental funds, so that the figures can be easily doubled.
By the way, in the approach to solving the economic problems of Tajikistan, there has always been two approaches. Russia and Iran have invested in the real economy. October 16, 2004, during a visit to Dushanbe, Putin announced a major investment (according to various estimates, from $ 1.2 billion to more than $ 3 billion) in the field of special interests Rahmon – hydropower (primarily – Sangtuda-1, then – Rogun) and in the remaining Soviet-era aluminum industry (working on the principle of tolling). From the moment that marked Russia in Tajikistan its fundamental interests, their interest in the creation of a consortium to finance Sangtuda 2 announced Iran, China has pledged to invest in the Nurek hydropower plant. Prior to this, no state, especially in the West, are not taken seriously Rahmon calls to invest in these industrial facilities.
And the West … The West did not put into the economy, and in the development of “democratic institutions.” In fact – in the pocket Rahmon and his surroundings that these public institutions and represented. When traveling in the West, Rahmon has repeatedly emphasized that “satisfied” relations between Tajikistan and the United States. He is particularly pleased with the relationship of security – mainly American help in financing and training, which is designed to strengthen the capacity of the state border control, the fight against drug trafficking and counter-terrorism operations.
And how interesting behaved Rahmon on the one hand, in relation to Russia is increasingly sounded frankly unfriendly statements. The Internet was full of stories about how the Tajik authorities brazenly “threw” Iranian businessmen who had imprudence to do business in Tajikistan. Tajik officials have started talking about the fact that cooperation with Russia and Iran to Tajikistan unprofitable. In an interview with U.S. Ambassador to Tajikistan Richard Hoagland Rahmon said that Moscow was preparing against him. But complaining to his grave share Rahmon in the same conversation made significant hint – first, in the course lasts two and a half hour meeting, the President expressed his gratitude to the United States, curling, that “the international community is important to temper, as he put it,” the worst instincts Russia “. Secondly, Rahmon ambassador hinted that Tajikistan is ready to certain conditions (read – for a fee, and security guarantees personally Rahmon and his entourage) to host the U.S. military base.
Accuracy of the readiness to shift to U.S. Rahmon sufficiently illustrate some of the facts of daily life: in conditions of severe energy savings for the local population (in the winter cold light turns on for 2-3 hours), RT uninterrupted electricity supplies in U.S. controlled Afghanistan. Even in the controversial issue of the American democratic NGOs Rahmon received “Solomonic solution” denied official registration to organizations such as National Democratic Institute and Freedom House, but, nevertheless, allowing them to carry out most of the programs. Another positive signal from Rahmon, he just authorized the use of the national curriculum tutorial on the basics of civil rights, which is the result of long-term work of the International Development Foundation for Electoral Systems (International Foundation for Election Systems – IFES). For several reasons, IFES – the only Democratic U.S. NGO, delivered from the annoying attention of the Tajik authorities and acting without any obstacles.
But happiness calf sucking two queens at once, can not be infinite. From the autumn of last year Rahmon and his team felt that tolerate his “art” nor Russia nor Iran are not going to. On the Russian side, this has resulted in a number of demonstrative deportations of migrants (as a response to “the case of pilots”), and in the introduction of new Russian export duties on light oil in Tajikistan, as in other CIS countries enjoy preferential tariffs before the entry into By the rules of the Customs Union of the three countries – Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.
From this point on, “Dangara clan” started making foreign policy shift toward “heart of the alliance” with the U.S.. It is clear that agreement, the alliance provided Hamrokhon Zarifi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, a figure little studied, but – more interesting than his connections and position, just read his article «The Message from the Roof of the World» in the weekly “New Europe” .
Today for the alliance to three conditions – squeezing Russia out of the RT, the opposition sweep with simultaneous elimination pro-Iranian lobby, which should provoke Iran into unfriendly statements. And then there is a good excuse to ask the protection and expansion in the U.S. presence in the country.
Task of squeezing Russia official Dushanbe decides exhibiting absurd claims for $ 300 million for the operation of the 201 military base in Tajikistan. But the other two conditions are quite capable to fulfill the activities outlined in the protocol № 32-20, made famous by those in Tajikistan, said current plans Rahmon and his environment – an adventure that leads to chaos RT.
But the paradox of the situation is that Rahmon overestimating its importance for the U.S.. The plans of the State Department it would play the role of a “bulldozer”, which should be “clean” political field, pro-Russian and pro-Iranian lobby (including physical destruction), to carry out the foreign policy shift, to ensure entry of the U.S. in Tajikistan … and in this role it is pumped. The fruits of these reforms, all the preferences of the “pro-American in Tajikistan”, will take advantage of others. Since 2006, there are leaks that the post of the next president of Tajikistan Americans “try on” the current head of the MFA RT – Hamrokhon Zarifi. That Washington lobbied his appointment to the post. And it is the policy of Washington holds Zarifi now in office, up to the limit of its strained relations with Russia. Let me quote a passage from a State Department diplomatic cables related to Zarifi: “Pro-American Tajik politician agreed to our proposals and asked to observe strict confidentiality of the meeting in the name of the execution of strategic tasks assigned to him and his team friendly country – the United States.”
Washington’s skill players deserves applause. Artfully entwined Rahmon informal guarantees by buying the entire clan for relatively little money, the U.S. actually made it a mechanical doll that comes up that road, which he charted. Goes – without deviating from the course, is – not even responsive to the wishes, but only on the fingers wiggling their owners. Only here the doll does not know that in the end the way it did not expect the power and luxury, but a garbage dump. And in its place a puppet, opening the way to the heart of the United States in Central Asia, will take another doll. The cycle of dictators “banana republics” pawns “The Grand Chessboard” is unknown from what imagined themselves the rulers …