Will American Troops Commit Genocide Against American Citizens?

Will American Troops Commit Genocide Against American Citizens?

by Dave Hodges –  thecommonsenseshow.com

History Speaks — Will America Listen? (Part Three)

READ: Part One / Part Two

Anyone knows, who has half of an eye open, that American citizens are soon to become an endangered species under our present lunatic President. Everyone should know that all of our constitutional protections against an out-of-control globalist puppet regime are melting away right before our very eyes. Everyone knows that Obama, under the NDAA, has the legal authority to “disappear” all political opponents without so much as a trace. Everyone knows that American economy was driven over the fiscal cliff in 2008 when Congress permitted the bankers to plunder our tax revenues and, today, we are just waiting for the official eulogy that the American economy is dead and the real “hunger games” are about to commence. Everyone knows that when the Obama puppet masters in the Zionist Federal Reserve are done plundering what is left of our pensions, our social security, our private property and our 401k’s, that the economy will be collapsed once and for all. And then, what will the American people do? They will do what any generation of Americans would do, they will take to the streets in attempt to rid themselves of the corrupt banker controlled government which has ruined this country. Sadly, this last ditch desperate attempt at regaining our lost liberties will not have a happy ending.

Picture, if you will, the veterans groups marching on Washington DC. Imagine bus loads of citizens following the veterans groups which will demand an end to a tyrannical government. Obama will make a formal declaration of martial law. Americans, desperate for food, water and the means to make a living will seek open confrontations with the present administration and this will commence the darkest days in American, and perhaps, even world history.

Will American troops follow the genocidal orders surely to be delivered by Obama? Will they begin to secretly arrest perceived dissidents? Will the military follow orders to shoot to kill American citizens who will be desperately looking for their next meal? With FEMA’s performance following Katrina and now Sandy, will there even be a next meal? Don’t hold your breath.

When the irresistible force meets the immovable object, what will happen? Will American troops fire, when ordered, upon their American brothers and sisters? There are two possible answers to this question. First, it is a known fact that the military is programmed in boot camp to follow orders like a bunch of Pavlovian conditioned dogs who are well trained in the art of unquestionably carrying out the orders of their superiors without hesitation. From a military training perspective, there can be little doubt that American soldiers will not only fire upon American protestors, but most will do so without the slightest amount of hesitation or conscience. However, the field of psychology provides an even more accurate view of why we can expect the American military to do in the coming desperate times. Not only will our military fire upon us, their fellow citizens, but they will also willingly participate in the round up of dissidents, and the extermination of these dissidents in what has become known FEMA Camps, which will surely accompany the coming martial law. Folks, NORTHCOM has been training for this since the 1990′s.

Before I address the psychological reasons on why the coming American genocide is almost upon us and it will receive the enthusiastic support from active duty military personnel, let’s examine the fiction set forth by a group known as Oath Keepers.

Some our citizens are deluded into a false sense of security by the group known as Oath Keepers.  It is a well-intentioned effort to remind both law enforcement and the military to uphold the Constitution and to disobey unlawful orders which would bring harm to American citizens. Under the this false sense of security, many in the American public really believe that American troops will not fire upon American citizens in the impending civil disobedience which is sure to follow Obama’s Sovietization of the United States. The Oath Keepers have all but assured the American public that both law enforcement and the military will refuse to obey unlawful orders to commit genocide against protesting Americans. Anyone who believes this fiction is self-delusional. As you will see in the following paragraphs, history has already answered the question as to whether anything beyond a small minority will actually resist committing atrocities against the American people.

The world of psychological research provides the definitive answer to whether we should fear our military in the coming storm ahead in the form of a phenomenon called groupthink. Groupthink is often described as a decision-making process whereby the group members go along with what they believe is the consensus. Groupthink has also been used to describe individual acquiescence to authority even when the authority has limited power to enforce compliance. Groupthink often causes groups to make hasty, irrational decisions, where individual doubts are set aside, for fear of upsetting the group’s leadership and balance.

Just how far will people go to please authority figures and subsequently do what they know to be immoral? The first known laboratory test for groupthink occurred in 1963 by Yale professor, Stanley Milgram. Subjects for this landmark study were recruited for the Yale study through newspaper ads and direct mail. The participants were men between the ages of 20 and 50, from all educational backgrounds, ranging from an elementary school dropout to participants with doctoral degrees.

Milgram wanted to determine what percentage of people would willingly administer enough progressive electric shocks which would result in death simply based on the orders of a perceived authority figure (i.e., the experimenter).

There were three participants in the experiment:

1. The Teacher was the real subject in the experiment. Their role was to administer shocks for each wrong answer provided by the learner. How far would they go, was the true subject of the experiment.  Would they actually kill a person for failing to provide the correct answer on a word pair test? Would they mindlessly follow the orders of the experimenter to continue with the abuse, regardless of the results and obvious harm being perpetrated upon the pretend victim in the experiment?

2. The second participant, the Learner, was actually a plant in the experiment. The Learner would sit in an adjacent room and pretend to be shocked for each wrong answer that they would purposely give. Eventually, they would cry out for help and beg the Teacher to stop administering the electric shocks. Their cries included pleas of mercy that were often based on an unknown level of self-expressed cardiac distress that they were pretending to experience.

3. The Experimenter was a stern looking fellow who carried a clipboard, wore a lab coat, and would urge the Teacher to continue regardless of the make believe pleas of the Learner.

The “Teachers” were told by the experimenter that they would be participating in an experiment to test the effects of punishment on learning. However, as has already been stated, this was not the goal of the experiment.

The “Teacher” was given a list of word pairs which was used to teach the Learner. The Learner was actually a confederate, or a plant, in the experiment. The Teacher would then read the first word of each pair and read four possible answers. The Learner would deliberately press the wrong button to indicate his response. Since the answer was incorrect, the Learner would receive an electric shock, with the voltage progressively increasing with each wrong answer. Therefore, the
subjects believed that for each wrong answer, the Learner was receiving an ever increasing level of actual shocks which would eventually result in death.

In reality, there were no shocks. After the confederate (i.e., Learner) was separated from the subject, the confederate set up a tape recorder integrated with the electro-shock generator, which played pre-recorded sounds of pain and distress for each successive level of shock. After a number of voltage level increases, the Learner would bang on the wall which divided him from the subject (teacher). After several instances of banging on the wall and complaining about his heart condition, the learner provided no further responses to questions and no further complaints. The fate of the Learner was left to the imagination of the teacher. The silence was met with the command to continue with the experiment. Although the Learner was not being harmed, the Teacher believed that they were administering progressively dangerous shocks. From the instrumentation panel, the Teacher could clearly see that their shocks were approaching the level of lethality. Was the Teacher being forced to capitulate and continue with the experiment? Quite the contrary was true, the prompts to continue administering shock were encouraged by minimal prompts and absolutely no threats were offered by the Experimenter.

If at any time the subject hesitated or expressed a desire to discontinue the experiment, the subject was given a planned and verbatim succession of verbal prompts by the experimenter:

1. “Please continue.”

2. “The experiment requires that you continue.”

3. “It is absolutely essential that you continue. ”

4. “You have no other choice, you must go on.”

If the Teacher still wished to stop after having listened to four successive verbal prompts, the experiment was discontinued. Otherwise, the experiment was terminated after the subject had administered the lethal 450-volt shock three times in succession.

Milgram expected that less than one percent would actually administer a fatal electric shock. The actual results were so stunning that he decided to film the results on the final day, fearing that nobody would believe his results. And what were the results? Despite expressing some measure of discomfort and the minimal use pressure, in Milgram’s first set of experiments, 65% (26 out of 40) of the subjects administered the experiment’s final and hypothetically fatal 450-volt shock. Amazingly,no participant steadfastly refused to give further shocks before the 300-volt level!

Milgram’s results were confirmed when Dr. Thomas Blass performed a meta-analysis on the results of repeated performances of the experiment. Blass found that the percentage of participants who were willing to administer fatal voltages remains remarkably constant, between 61% and 66%.

The results of Milgram’s and Blass’ work are stunning in their final conclusion which demonstrated that almost two-thirds of all Americans will mindlessly follow the commands of a “perceived” authority figure even when the authority figure has no real power over the people. Is this why our military continues to serve a despot who does not hesitate to throw away their lives or anyone else under his charge such as Ambassador Stevens?

To achieve political success, every authoritarian regime requires a high level of voluntary cooperation (i.e., groupthink) from its citizenry. Cooperation can be coerced as many times, in dictatorial regimes, cooperation is obtained as a result of extreme intimidation by carrying out a relatively small number of exceptionally harsh punishments in order to serve as a warning to the masses. However, there are not enough police, inspectors, auditors, etc. to control a populace in which the majority would fail to comply with the status quo. Then why do we continue to follow leaders who have abandoned the Constitution and the welfare of our people long ago? Is America a prisoner to the groupthink phenomena? What about gross ignorance as a contributor to America’s capitulation to such bad leadership? Can anything be done?  Now that we have had the confirmation of FEMA Camps, are you concerned about the propensity for the American people to follow directions right to the planned extermination of Americans as planned by the globalists?

I wholeheartedly support and applaud the efforts of the Oath Keepers. However, when one considers the conditioned response training of the military and the propensity for even nonmilitary personnel to blindly follow orders, through the process of group think, I think Oath Keepers may only be able to exert a very minimal effect on the overall outcome as it pertains to the American troops committing genocide against the American people.

Part 4 will examine what options Americans, who steadfastly refuse to accept the tyrannical government that we are increasingly being exposed to, have at their disposal to combat the coming American genocidal holocaust.




“Will American Troops Commit Genocide
Against American Citizens?”

  1. “…there can be little doubt that American soldiers will not only fire upon American protestors, but most will do so without the slightest amount of hesitation or conscience. ”

    Any/All dictators will local citizens to defend and carry out their reign of terror. The USA will be no different. Another eye opening article for all to ponder. Thanks!

  2. This article is the only one of it’s kind, because Dave Hodges asks the question that no other American would: “Will American Troops Commit Genocide Against American Citizens?”. I can tell anyone from personal experience, the late 20th to early 21st century military is comprised of “Muttonheads”. Yes, i said it, someone finally has to. I am sick of all the blind patriotic idiocy that American citizens show for “Our Heroes” . Next to 0 of American troops admit to the fact that they are accomplices to Illegal Wars and Occupation. Next to 0 of American troops admit that countries like Iraq and Afghanistan are worse off than before the US invaded! Next to 0 of American troops admit that “conspiracies” such as Operation Northwoods (which is identical in function/scope to the invented “War On Terror”) actually exist. I, myself nearly got into a brawl with enlisted nitwits who denied it even existing when I asked about depleted uranium ammunition and armor, even though G.I.s are being poisoned by said armor/ammo! Not to mention the scores of deformities and child birth fatalities to the Iraqis and others nations citizens who are constantly exposed to that radioactive crap.

    Add to that, the fact, that Illegal Aliens are allowed in the military, along with ex-convicts, gang members, American civilians who have no criminal history, but are severely ignorant or just plain stupid (Brainless American Youth 18-25), I just recently spoke to a 23yr old who thinks being prepared “is stupid” and that “there is nothing wrong with the US military , the NDAA or Drones because we gotta get the terrorists”

    The answer is yes yes and yes! American Troops will turn on American civilians! I don’t care how many Vet parades you go to, no matter how much you donate to the USO, no matter how many CARE packages you send to “our boys” in Iraq, those clowns will turn on you as soon as they get the command because they are not capable (for the most part) of rational thinking and foresight. They literally have a cartoon mentality, (autobots vs decepticons) with no grey area between.

    The groupthink also infects the families of officers and soldiers, so blind obedience is constantly reinforced ( tell a US soldier who caused “collateral damage” to foreign innocents that he just committed murder, his answer will be: “We build bridges for them! We give them drinking water and MREs! We freed them from “whoever”! Their all ungrateful!” AND his family and friends will parrot the same garbage and G.I. numbskull will actually feel even better than before because he “knows” that he is “protecting our freedoms and trying to bring “American values” to “idiot foreigners”…

    When “Johnny G.I.” shows up with local law enforcement to take you and yours to a FEMA re-education camp, and to urinate all over your 2nd amendment rights, do yourself a favor and make sure it’s “Johnny’s” last tour of duty…

  3. You are absolutely right, “it will receive the enthusiastic support from active duty military personnel”

    I am also pretty sure that under the coming mass amnesty Obozo may make it a requirement that all (presently) illegal aliens serve under Obama in his civilian force before they can finalize the process of becoming “legalized”. A force just as big and just as strong as the military.

    A force which will have no qualms about firing on Americans, who have been conditioned to hate Americans and seek out revenge for perceived wrongs done to them taught to them from birth by their rabid Marxist teachers, mentors, and leaders–no matter what side of the border they operate from..

    even if this “civilian” force never materializes the US military WILL do the job, except that with all the wars and operations going on around the world it just doesn’t seem to me that they have enough available men to get the job done without extra help. The UN? China? Hmm.

  4. It seems there comes a moment when one passes over and beyond the ‘point of no return’ line, in terms of the Groupthink, i.e. the mind is unable to stop the program and a total reactionary sequence jumps into play based on “all” the uploaded, inputed data, e.g. TV programs/commercials, movies, IRS fear tactics, smart meters, HAARP, Rx and Non-Rx drugs, GMO Food, School indoctrination, etc., etc., etc., from the moment one was conceived all the way to the molded and manipulated form we find ourselves in now.

    The Human Mind is much stranger than I could have ever imagined.

    Which has got me thinking about one rather strange concept, i.e. what it takes to “kill” someone. I’ve been “preparing” for many years now, for the field of all possibilities regarding the great storm brewing “just over there” and, in the process of adequately preparing for “that” day, I’ve acquired various “tools” to defend myself and loved ones against “certain forms” of tyranny. Even though my mind says, “Do what you need to do to stand up for righteousness”, my heart wonders what might be the short term and long term repercussions to that vulnerable organ, if I were to succeed in achieving that object. It seems so diametrically opposed to the nature of life, i.e. ending someone else’s rather than supporting it. Of course, with all the TV and Movie Groupthink programming taking place while being plugged into that world as a youth, it seems as “easy” as playing a video game (which, incidentally, I only participated in a few times, years ago).

    We’ve been lucky in America. Last civil war was before any of us were around. Seen civil wars on TV/Films, but never up close and personal.

    This is No Drill.

France, Austria, and Spain Come-Out for Palestinian Vote–(US Has Corrected British Backsliding–UPDATED)

“William Hague says UK may abstain in Palestinian UN vote”

[It seems that every European ally of the US, except for the Zionist entity (and their German slaves) and the United States itself, are coming-out to support the Palestinian vote at the UN–France and Austria, Britain and Spain.]

France backs Palestinians in statehood bid

France backs Palestinians in statehood bid

France has become the first major European country to back the Palestinian drive for statehood at the UN.

Austria reportedly also plans to support the proposal and claims it will be joined by more than half of the EU’s 27 member states. The vote is due later this week.

France is a permanent member of the UN security council and has backed an upgrade in status for Palestine for decades.

“It is a question of political coherence,” Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told the lower house of parliament. He added that immediate and unconditional negotiations are the only way that a Palestinian state can emerge.

Israel and the United States oppose the move.

“I think that the great majority of nations will vote with us. We tried very hard to win the largest number of European countries to vote in favor” said Palestinian Ambassador to the UN, Riyad Mansour.

Upgraded status would mean the opportunity to participate in debates in the General Assembly and to join UN agencies, as well as the International Criminal Court.

Israel has promised unilateral action if the Palestinians challenge its actions in the ICC.

Muslim Brotherhood–Making Lists, Rounding-Up Anti-Islamist Activists

An Egyptian protester kicks a tear gas canister during clashes with Egytptian riot police in Tahrir square on 25 November n Cairo. (AFP PHOTO/STRINGER)An Egyptian protester kicks a tear gas canister during clashes with Egytptian riot police in Tahrir square on 25 November n Cairo. (AFP PHOTO/STRINGER)vv

rounding up activists

Activists allegedly handed over to the police


The Egyptian Centre for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR) has claimed that members of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) are rounding up people and handing them over to the security forces. It is alleged that they are targeting people they believe to have been involved in attacking Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) headquarters.

Malek Adly, a lawyer for ECESR said, “the MB are making lists and taking people from the street.” He reported that MB members have been moving in large groups and forcibly taking people to the central security forces, who transfer them to the police to be arrested.

Adly said “the people who are picked up are charged with attacking MB members, the police or the FJP buildings.” He added, “the ECESR have sent legal assistance to help these people and we have been successful in securing their release.”

Hundreds of thousands converge on Tahrir, demand Morsy rescind his declaration

Hundreds of thousands converge on Tahrir

Protesters demand Morsy rescind his declaration


Protesters flocked to Tahrir Square on Tuesday, as several marches converged. A stage was set up on which people led chants and gave speeches while a near-continuous stream of marches and unaffiliated protesters flooded the square.

Overnight clashes around the square had largely died down by the morning. A field doctor, Tamer El-Nahas said there were many cases of injuries overnight. “Today [Tuesday] has been relatively quiet,” he said, speculating that there would not be any significant clash between security forces and protesters, so long as there were thousands of people present.

A member of Al-Dostour party said that he and his party demanded President Mohamed Morsy withdraw his controversial constitutional declaration, “which is tantamount to a dictatorship,” he said.

“How can we call him President when he has the power of a dictator,” said Om Mena, a protester. “We demand he withdraws the decree immediately,” she continued.

By 4pm several marches were still converging in the square. The Wafd party march approached the square brandishing their flags, but quickly lowered them at the request of the podium speakers who called for only Egyptian flags to be raised in the square.

“[Gamal Abdel] Nasser had warned us,” a chant led by the farmers’ union march began. “Do not trust the [Muslim] Brotherhood.”

Speakers on the stage led chants against the president, calling for the downfall of the regime.

The atmosphere in Tahrir was calm, and security forces were nowhere to be seen. “They are behind the walls,” a 14 year old protester with a Guy Fawkes mask said.

By 5 pm, numbers in Tahrir had swelled to tens of thousands, and on the arrival of the largest marches from Shubra, Zamalek and Mustafa Mahmoud Square, Tahrir protesters numbers was estimated to be hundreds of thousands. Lawyers, judges and journalists are among those who are protesting the president’s decision.

The Muslim Brotherhood said via their Twitter account that the “low protester turnout today [Tuesday] indicates a lack of support among Egyptians,” but nevertheless supports peaceful protests and strong opposition.

The social isolation of Ikhwan

The social isolation of Ikhwan


The Muslim Brotherhood announced a few days ago that they will protest on Tuesday in support of Morsy’s latest decree in Abdeen Square. Residents of Abdeen area hung up a banner reading, “Ikhwan not welcome.” The Brotherhood moved the protest to the vicinity of Cairo University.

The students on social media outlets promised them a “special welcome” and advised them to relocate their protest to Giza Zoo (right next to the university) warning that even the animals will chase them away, which lead of course to a torrent on typical Egyptian jokes.

On Monday night an official announcement was made; the Brotherhood will not protest that day to avoid bloodshed.

The Brotherhood has not fully got it yet, but they are currently being socially isolated by the people not the power of the law.  It is the first step towards becoming a social leper. Exaggeration? Let’s examine the facts.

Following Morsy’s latest constitutional declaration giving himself demi-God powers, political groups convened last Thursday announcing the formation of a front to fight the “monopoly” of Ikhwan over Egypt promising not to allow another dictatorship to rule the country. The groups were formed of socialists, seculars, liberals, moderates and even Mubarak supporters leached themselves to the initiative.

Al-Nour party, most prominent Salafi group in Egypt, protested the declaration because of the unlimited powers Morsy bequeaths upon himself and criticising the way Morsy sacked the prosecutor general, corrupt as he is, as it violates the sanctity of judicial law.

Judges have called for a national strike two days ago and some NGOs estimate the court strikes to be nearing 70% all over Egypt against a decree deemed to weaken judiciary powers.

The press syndicate held its annual meeting two days ago, refusing the decree with reporters throwing out their “elected” Ikhwan representative out of the meeting, calling for the downfall of Morsy, joining Tahrir sit-in, and threatening a general strike.

Thinkers and writers have flooded local papers with columns threatening the beginning of tyranny with reference to Adolf Hilter’s rise to power through democratic elections and Iran’s Al-Khomeini who took over the country after a revolution, forming his revolutionary guard and executing and imprisoning his critics.

Independent workers unions urged workers to join the current Tahrir sit-in, objecting the decree as well as the newest Labour Act Morsy issued decried by many labor organisations and civil societies mainly as it does not allow disabled workers to retain their union membership and allowing the current minister—a Muslim Brotherhood labour leader—to appoint union board members among other catastrophic results.

The United States, Morsy’s current best friend following the Gaza-Israel ceasefire, has raised its eyebrows in worry over the declaration. Hillary Clinton on the phone with Egyptian foreign minister told him the United States wants to see “the constitutional process move forward in a way that does not overly concentrate power in one set of hands” and expressed her worry over “competing demonstrations.”

Away from politicians and their games, are the protesters who have taken over Tahrir since 19 November. My biggest surprise was their age, mostly under 18 with vengeance combined with adolescent  hormones leading to a volatile mix that won’t give up unless their demands are met. They do not fear death or injury. They play with tear gas canisters as they would a ball. They welcome gunshots not caring about the results.

Most of those whom I have spoken to either buried a friend in 25 January  2011 revolution and its following battles, or lost a loved one in the Port Said football match massacre. Their demand is the same: fair trials of those who killed their loved ones. They do not care about elections, politics or the judiciary system.

Morsy has become another Mubarak in their young minds with killers vindicated in courts, continuous torture cases by the police, a poverty spike that is affecting them on daily basis and the unfulfilled promise of the revolution of “a better life for all,” which was why people outset Mubarak in the first place.

On Monday, Egyptians buried two boys; 17 year-old Gaber Sahah, “Jika” to his friends, shot in the face and 15 year-old Islam Massoud, bludgeoned till death. Jika was a Baradei-supporter and 6 April activist while Massoud belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood. The funerals ran simultaneously in Cairo and Damanhur. Both mothers were taped having a nervous breakdown. Jika’s father and Massoud’s brother accused Morsy and “his brotherhood” of killing their children.

Historians assure that Egypt has never quite suffered a civil war.

In three months of Morsy’s rule, Egyptians are facing-off on the streets.

Now the Brotherhood has two options; either Morsy takes back his decree, which would mean his loss to the pressure of civil groups and the street or he insists on it causing more street clashes and more blood that in turn can lead to three different scenarios; the ousting of Morsy, the Brotherhood fortifying their first step to a tyrannical rule or a much-feared military intervention.

Their promise of a “renaissance” project has turned into a promise of a civil war.

As tens of thousands fill Tahrir square Tuesday afternoon as I am writing these words, the credibility of Ikhwan is dwindling by the second and their social isolation may soon follow.

Bahrain protests against Saudi Union project

Bahrain protests against Union project

Bahrain was in protest demonstrations on the Union project with Saudi Arabia(Al-Jazeera)


Tens of thousands of Bahrainis today outside the capital Manama to protest what they called the pursuit of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to includeBahrain , after the announcement of the project a union between the two countries during the summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council  Monday in Riyadh.

The Deputy Secretary General of the  opposition National Accord Association Khalil Ibrahim Al-Marzouq of the island “The three hundred thousand BD came out to express their attachment to the stability of Bahrain,” and added that the draft Union aims to break up national unity and popular escape from the benefits. ”

He expressed his conviction that the project came after the inability of the authorities in Bahrain for the suppression of popular protests.

In contrast, Deputy Secretary General of the Association of National Forum Nasser residue of the island that “the Union is not a fad but is passed by the idea three decades,” and added “we have not heard the idea of ​​annexation of Bahrain by Saudi Arabia only current sectarian.”

Fadala described what being sectarian bias because it coincided with the exit of “groups حرضتها Iran.” He said that “the danger to the Gulf states comes from Iran, which wants to being singled Bahrain.”

The leaders of the six Gulf Cooperation Council met in Riyadh on Monday to discuss the king’s call Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz  to unify the GCC countries, but they failed to agree on further integration schemes.

It is scheduled to resume talks in this regard later this year.

The witness Bahrain protests over a year ago demanding political reform and democracy.

Saudi Arabia fears that extends the unrest in Bahrain to the Shiites who are in its eastern region, the oil-producing.

The growing tension between Iran and the Gulf Arab states in recent months. Arab leaders have accused Tehran of fomenting the Shiite-led protests in Bahrain, a charge Iran denies and denies Bahraini protesters.

Iran considered that the Union project is the demise of the Kingdom of Bahrain due to the lack of consistency in the economic and military capacity and the number of people between the two countries.

The Days In Jordan: the Monarchy In the Balance


The Days In Jordan: the Monarchy In the Balance

November 16, 2012 Valeria Ruggiu
Le giornate giordane: la monarchia in bilico

Jordan days is the channel that is broadcasting the live streaming of the protests. Jordan is enjoying his days of anger. Almost two years after ‘protests began on 14 November saw explode in the streets around the country so impetuous and uncontrolled. The budget for the second day of protests is two people, including a security officer and a protester who tried to break into a public office. Many wounded, tear gas and vandalism.What Jordan is experiencing at this time is urban warfare. From north to south the protests have expanded like wildfire: Tafileh, Shobak, Maan, Aqaba, Irbid, Salt, Zarqa, Russeifa, the Jordan Valley and Amman. The capital is unexpectedly blocked by angry protesters who wander without a specific destination, trying to prevent the blocks from the police patrolling the streets.

It’s not just that. People began to gather in the street shortly after the government’s announcement of the suspension of subsidies on fuel that, in fact, lead to a rise in its price from 15 to 53.8 percent, depending on whether we are talking about gasoline, diesel , kerosene and domestic gas. The move was made ​​in the context of different operations austerity that aim to save the Kingdom on the brink of a financial crisis. The government of Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour, recently appointed, is the fifth appointed by the King in the 23 months of protests in the country. A practice that seems to no longer having a palliative effect against the popular discontent and might not be enough this time to calm the riots. Even the reform movements that have shown in recent months have called for calm people, distancing himself from the violent outbursts.

The slogans shouted by the demonstrators have changed target: not only al-Islah al-Sha’b yurid Nidham butalso yasqut yasqut-Abdallah. No longer just the reform of the regime, but the fall of Abdallah. This like many others with similar meanings are an important sign for the country. The taboo of the King, incriticabile, he fell dead. The children express their anger and identify the cause of their problems in the figure of the king’s reforms are not enough. Seek revolution.
The long wave of so-called Arab Spring has perhaps reached the Jordan? But what does this mean for the country? What are the possible scenarios in case the situation fell within the normal range as has happened in recent months? The country is protesting it, but not everything. Many, again, defend the King and do not see the need for a violent upheaval to change things. Of course, now that the King change strategy change because the government no longer needed. It is too late to take up the situation in a peaceful manner? Twenty-three months, the people waited for the arrival of government after government reforms take effect. There was the reform of the Constitution, there was a reform of the electoral law, anti-corruption measures, but none of them seems to have deeply affected the real problems. Was definitely not easy even engage in the discussions that led to these reforms because the first Jordanian society and its governance structures are heavily influenced, if not shaped, by tribalism that produces corruption, the pervasive presence of the secret services and the Jordanian identity problem. Key pillars of society does not easily collapsible.

The King has in front of him a few roads. The most desirable would be a revocation of the operation that affects the fuel in order to calm the markets. This, however, could only be guaranteed if an externalrefill the state coffers. Then there would be no choice but to meet the people’s will begin a real process of effective reforms. On the other hand, the second option would be the use of strong-arm tactics, martial law on the model of a black November. But this would lead the country into civil war and it would be unthinkable at the international level, with the Syrian crisis in place, losing valuable ally Jordan. Although the second seems unthinkable, the first involves a second phase, however, problematic. Reforming Jordan really mean it going to affect the tribal links that have always constituted the basis of society and public affairs from the time of its birth as a modern state. The basis of tribal loyalty, upon which the Jordanian monarchy would be put to the test if they were put in question the privileges that govern it. The problem of identity, the source component Palestinian majority in the country, is a source of instability and potential conflict civil. Is currently challenged state sovereignty, as it did in the sixties by the fedayyin Palestinians and culminated in 1970 with the Black September, but it is an indelible memory in the history of the country.

Cards in play are many and an important player like Jordan in the Middle East chessboard can not risk making the wrong move. It is hoped, therefore, that the fuse broke out these days do not surrender the country into chaos, but that the King take a step back and, in honor of the birthday of his father Hussein, transform his kingdom into a parliamentary monarchy on the model UK. A revolution from above.


Valeria Ruggiu is research associate in the Program “Middle East” dell’IsAG.