What will happen to Syria after this conflict?
Never has the Middle East seen such a divide between its nations since the inception of the Iran-Iraq War. On one side is the Gulf States: Qatar, Saudia Arabia, and the only non-Gulf State, Turkey. On the other side: Syria and Iran. You would think this was the Cold War with the United States on one side and Russia (formerly the U.S.S.R) on the other. Throw out your textbooks, the Cold War isn’t over. But, is this about the proliferation of arms? Or is this a more complex conflict that has led to the rise of religious extremism coalesced with the dilapidation of Arab nationalism?
When Ben Ali, Ghaddafi, and Mubarak were deposed by Salafis amalgamated with people legitimately opposed to the government for political and economic reasons; it became Assad’s turn to face the people. The issue with the attempt to abdicate Assad was, for the most part, sectarian in nature. Dr. Bashar al-Assad is one of the most educated leaders in the world. His English is spoken with remarkable fluidity and accuracy; he speaks English at a higher level of proficiency than most Americans. So, why was this man facing removal? He wasn’t corrupt like Mubarak; his wife’s family did not use her husbands political influence for their monetary gain like Ben Ali’s wife; and he did not obstruct education and create a personality cult like the late Ghaddafi. He was a simple man. The reforms were there. Syria’s economic climate was no different than the other countries in the world. He did not abuse minorities like Ghaddafi. The Druze in Syria were at peace with the government. Lebanon survived its 2005 Cedar Revolution without the increase of bloodshed within its borders. Now, the Assad regime was facing a threat that most were not prepared for – a proxy war between Israel and Iran.
“What! What does Israel have to do with this? Oh, I get it – you are throwing out the conspiracy card.” No, I am not. I am giving you the truth. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are in for a surprise; they have been used for their wealth and influence. Do you really believe the United States supports Al Qaeda and religious zealots hell-bent on bringing religious hegemony to the world? Not a chance. It’s a regional war, so you have to use your resources to attain what you endeavor. The U.S. has strong ties with the three aforementioned countries. Israel, well, Israel does not. The Flotilla crisis still angers Turkey. Saudi Arabia is furious that Israel will not recognize Hamas in Gaza. Of course, there is Qatar, who offers nothing besides a wealth of oil and money. So, why are they blind to Israel’s hidden agenda? Well, because it’s aligned with their own political agenda. Remember, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend;” this is true.
Weapons are pouring into Syria, foreign Muslims are calling for Jihad against the ‘kafirs’ in Syria, and Syrians are fighting their own people. Nothing good has come from this in the Arab world. They are systematically destroying themselves for the greater good of Israel. What is the greater good of Israel? The isolation of Iran and the obstruction and destruction of Hezbollah. In 2006, Israel was embarrassed by the stalemate between their armed forces and Hezbollah. In fact, it was a victory for Hezbollah. Hezbollah received what they wanted in the end and Israel was forced to concentrate troops in the southern part of the land they plundered. They were on the side of Iran during the Iran-Iraq War and now they are sworn enemies. Do you think if they could predict the rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon that they would rethink their support of Iran during the war? I believe they would have. Iran becoming stronger only weakens Israel. Iran as a nuclear power creates fear and desperation on the side of Israel. They believe Iran and Hezbollah to be the biggest threat to the sovereignty of the reinvented Kingdom of David.
So, what happens when the FSA finally quits and foreign Jihadists are called to end their jihad. Qatar, Saudia Arabia, and Turkey will have failed to usurp Assad and have caused insurmountable destruction to Syria that all of their billions of dollars combined could not fix. The people who have perished in this conflict cannot be brought back. Their families will forever associate a stigma with those three nations. As the Syrian government rebuilds over the ashes of a once beautiful nation, the people will remember the deeds of those who used money and political influence to bring about their own political hegemony. Some will call for immediate reprisals against those three nations and I am sure there will be. Perhaps Assad grants clemency to the PKK after he arms them. Maybe he arms Saudi’s against their own government. I cannot tell you for sure.
Can Assad put everything aside for a harmonious Arab League? The answer is absolutely not. Syria needs to drop out of the Arab League and cut all ties with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey (until Erdoghan is out of office), and Jordan. He needs to strengthen his alliances with Iraq and Algeria. He needs to become the champion of anti-Jihad around the world. Countries like Mali could use a friend like him. He already has Iran as his strongest ally, all he needs to do is isolate Qatar and Saudi Arabia; but, he needs to do it without violence. The Saudi government is not as stable as it appears. They oppress minorities, deny women rights, and they are notorious human rights violators (You know they sat on the United Nations Human Rights Council – what a joke). As for Qatar, they are insignificant – truthfully. Do not listen to any English or American Middle Eastern analysts; they are under the influence of Qatar’s money, especially many academics and professors. My own aunt, whose name I will remain anonymous, takes her students to Qatar and finds them work. She also vehemently opposes Assad. She lives very comfortably, which is obvious with her income from all of her broadcasts on Al-Jazeera. Moving on, they will still use Al-Jazeera and the media to influence people. My hope is that people wake up and boycott their media.
Finally, good ole Israel. Well, former president Clinton had more relations with Monica Lewinsky than Syria has had with Israel. Syria will continue to support Hezbollah and Iran. Netanyahu and the rest of the Likud will become more aggressive with their words towards Iran. They will deny any involvement in the Syrian conflict; which is a lie. How are rebels coming into the Golan from Israel? You are telling me a country who has more checkpoints than a Nascar race does not have a checkpoint to block insurgents from coming into Syria? How about their aerial attack in southern Syria? Was that an accident or a clear violation of the U.N’s laws of warfare? You be the judge. Why did the news just report that Israel has confirmed 50,000 troops from Lebanon and Iran coming to Syria? They want to legitimize the Opposition using rebels from abroad by stating that Syria is using soldiers from abroad. Israel will never live at peace and they shall meet a heavily armed, well-trained Iranian Army one day in the near future. Unfortunately for them, their endeavor to remove the Assad regime so Iran cannot have a way to attack Israel directly will fail.