Tapi – still a long, long way to go

BR RESEARCH

The long wait is finally over as the Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) has finally been inked between Pakistan and Turkmenistan on the much-hyped TAPI gas pipeline deal. Although, the government is obviously claiming it as a key milestone towards the completion of the project – it is anything but…

It has taken no less than 17 years for Tapi to just sign the GSPA, as the idea was originated back in 1995. How much more will it take is anybodys guess, but experts opine that even if everything goes fast-paced, it won be completed before 2016-17, as a lot of issues from awarding contracts to agreeing on transit fees, security premiums, arranging finances and the product price are yet to be drafted.

It is ironic that it has taken such long time to even reach at the beginners level, whereas China, on the other hand, originated the pipeline plan with Turkmenistan in 2003 and it was up and running by 2009. Chinas project was very identical to Tapi in terms of project cost, pipeline distance and quantity of gas imported. The only difference was that China was far more serious and focussed and more importantly its route faced no security concerns.

Tapi, which is backed by the US for obvious reasons faces one security obstacle too many as it is designed to pass through the troubled areas of Herat and Kandhar in Afghanistan and Quetta in Pakistan. The US in all likelihood will have left Afghanistan, if and when Tapi comes online, which will leave it on the mercy of either Taliban or militants in Pakistan.

This is why, experts argue that IP gas pipeline is a much more viable alternative for Pakistan, which carries low risk and could be completed much quicker as Iran has completed the bulk of work on its end. Moreover, the gas price too, is expected to be $2/mmbtu lower than Tapi, but since Iran faces US sanctions and Pakistan faces US pressure, the financing of IP remains troublesome. That said Iran is willing to offer assistance in financing of the pipeline project and the Pakistan government also has the room to utilise a decent sum of money collected via Gas Infrastructure Development cess. But, combating the American pressure remains the biggest obstacle in the progress of IP pipeline.

If the ongoing talks between Iran and UN on the nuclear programme bear some fruit, the IP dream could come an inch closer. But, Tapi will remain a distant dream, as industry sources claim that without security guarantee, it would be next to impossible to reach agreements on pricing and transit fees with other countries and the security premium attached to the project might well be over and above the project cost itself.

Pakistan finds itself between a rock and a hard place – where it has a more viable option for the taking but can go for it – and the other one seems an ambitious project with strong backing. It is time Pakistan uses its diplomatic channels wisely and opt in its best economic interests as succumbing to international pressure have not and will not yield results and energy security would remain an elusive dream.

Russia Says Assad Forces, Rebels to Blame for Syria Massacre

Both government forces and rebels were responsible for this weekend’s massacre in Houla, Lavrov said

© REUTERS/ Shaam News Network

MOSCOW, May 28 (Marc Bennetts, RIA Novosti)

Both government forces and rebels were responsible for this weekend’s massacre in the Syrian town of Houla, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday.

“There can be no doubt that the authorities used artillery and tanks,” Lavrov said after talks with his U.K. counterpart William Hague in Moscow.

“[But] guilt should be apportioned objectively,” Russia’s top diplomat said. “It takes two to tango.”

Lavrov also said “dozens of players” were involved in the current violence in Syria.

At least 108 people, around a third of them children, were killed in Houla, near the former rebel stronghold city of Homs, according to United Nations observers. The UN Security Council, of which Russia is a permanent, veto-wielding member, unanimously condemned the Syrian authorities on Sunday over what it says was “an outrageous” attack.

“We are insisting on the carrying out of a probe into what happened in Houla,” Lavrov went on. “We need to understand how this happened to make sure it will never be repeated.”

Russian deputy UN ambassador Alexander Pankin told journalists ahead of Hague’s visit that Moscow did not rule out that the killings in Houla were a “provocation” carried out by rebel forces ahead of a visit by UN peace envoy Kofi Annan to Syria on Tuesday. He also refused to rule out the participation of foreign special forces in the attack.

The Kremlin has opposed attempts to impose UN sanctions on its ally, Syria, where Russia maintains its only foreign military base, over what Western powers say is the brutal suppression of a now more-than-one-year uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. Moscow, which continues to arm Damascus, says proposed UN resolutions on the violence-stricken country betray a pro-rebel bias.

Russia has, however, given its full backing to UN envoy Kofi Annan’s faltering six-point peace plan for Syria and Lavrov reiterated on Monday that Damascus needed to show more decisiveness to end the violence in the Middle Eastern country.

Hague said that the U.K. accepted that rebel forces bore responsibility for some of the violence.

“We are not arguing that all violence in Syria is the responsibility of the Assad regime, although it has the primary responsibility for such violence,” he said.

Both Hague and Lavrov insisted that Annan’s peace plan was the only way forward.

“We are very much agreed that the Annan plan is the best hope for Syria,” Hague said, adding that the alternatives were ever increasing chaos in Syria, and a dissent closer and closer to all out civil war.”

Lavrov said that Russia was applying pressure “daily” on Syria, but that it believed certain other countries were not fully committed to Annan’s plan.

“Russia has particular role in applying pressure,” Lavrov said. “We sense from our contacts that some other forces are not committed. We support Kofi Annan’s plan and they should do everything for this to succeed…There should no be external interference.”

Moscow has condemned Western suggestions that regime change in Syria is the solution to the spiral of violence, and Hague was keen to stress on Monday that Assad’s immediate fate was not the main concern.

We have said all the way back from last August that finding a solution involves him standing aside,” Hague said. “But the important thing is that the Annan plan is pursued. That is now the urgent priority.”

And Lavrov said the main thing for Moscow was not who was in power in Syria, but a successful implementation of Annan’s plan.

“The main thing is stopping the violence, and to create a political dialogue among the Syrian people. Everything else is secondary,” he said. “And if we want to stop the violence, we have to work together with the regime and the opposition. Kofi Annan’s plan is about consensus.”

Hague and Lavrov’s talks came as Syrian opposition activists alleged that over 40 people, including women and children, had been killed in the city of Hams by government artillery attacks and shelling.

Air Force Reservists To Be Deployed As First Wave of American Police State

Defense Department Seeks Legal Authority to Deploy Reservists onto American Streets

Susanne Posel  Occupy Corporatism

Thanks to Posse Comitatis, the US military are forbidden from responding on the streets of America whenever the whim is announced.

The Posse Comitatus Act, Section 1385, states that only under “circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress” can the military presence on American streets is allowed.

Yet, if the Defense Department has their way, a new authorization act will give them the power to order the armed forces to be used against the American public.

Air Force reservists are slated to be the new response team for domestic disturbances. Disseminated from Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) and other reserve agencies, these men and women could be called to be first response to natural disasters within the US. The legislation would extend mobilizations for indeterminate periods of time.

The AFRC affirms that reservists are traditionally not used in “homeland disaster response”. The governors of individual states can request the National Guard’s assistance during a natural disaster when local law enforcement becomes overwhelmed.

Our reservists have been asked and often volunteer to assist after disasters hit the homeland,” said Lt. Gen. Charles E. Stenner Jr., chief of Air Force Reserve and AFRC commander. “Mobilizing needed reservists will help sustain their support for longer periods and make operations more efficient. We mobilize reservists to handle contingencies overseas, so it makes sense that we do that to take care of our own country.”

Because of the specialized training that reservists are given in dealing with disasters, the US government has decided they would be perfect as a first response team.

Earlier this month, in Crookston Minnesota, there were armed US National Guardsmen that were patrolling a residential neighborhood .

These functions are called “urban operations training” where military personnel carry armed weapons with the command not to “utilize armory or pyrotechnics”.

Within the Air Force Reserve, there are other specialized units such as response personnel, supplies and equipment focused on disaster scenarios.

As recent as 2008 saw our National Guard unit in America under NORTHCOM as “domestic security”.

Stenner proclaims that this new authority will allow the armed forces to make greater contributions to Americans should there be a natural disaster. He is referring to the frustration chiefs of reservist experience because they are “unable to help their communities.”

The push for over-reaching authority allocated to the armed forces will negate local reservist’s purpose by Title 10, which gives them federal power that supersedes state authority in Title 32.

Armed Forces chiefs claim that there were reserve-component Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines who were close at hand with the capabilities needed, but they didn’t have the authority to act,” said Army Lt. Gen. Jack C. Stultz, chief of Army Reserve. “Finally, we got the law changed. This new legislation says that now we can use Title 10 reserves.”

Without a declaration of emergency or disaster from the President, these armed forces could not act. With this new ability, they can . . . whenever and for whatever purpose they are ordered to.

The law specifies that local law enforcement is still mandated to provide initial response; yet if needed, the National Guard will become the first step requested by a state governor.

And then there is the matter of scenario that allows reservists to be deployed for a promised 120 days, which could be extended based upon request. “We just have to make sure we have the procedures and processes worked out,” Stultz remarked about the specifics that are now being worked out to avoid confusion of authority later on.

Stultz is very anxious to have this power at his fingertips. “Let’s not wait until a hurricane hits to say, ‘How do we do it?’”
These reservists are going to be the response team for any future (and assured) “overseas contingencies”.

As operations in the Middle East are winding down, Stultz can now refocus his attention on militarizing America.