Petraeus’ ‘Battle of Khorasan’

[The reference to “Khorasan” (Greater Khorasan or Ancient Khorasan [Persian: خراسان کهن یا خراسان بزرگ] is a historical region spanning what are now most of Afghanistan, northeastern Iran, and the southern parts of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikstan) is taken from an article at the CIA-linked website Long War Journal, claiming that an “Al-Qaeda” leader made the linkage between Afghanistan and ancient Khorasan (SEE:  Al Qaeda’s Shadow Army commander outlines Afghan strategy – Khorasan).]

Osama bin Laden’s strategy for bringing the US to the battle zone in Pakistan is bearing fruit. The ‘battle of Khorasan’ is on.

General David H. Petraeus, former commander, U. S. Central Command. Image via Wikipedia. Now the head of the CIA

The relations between Pakistan and America hit new nadirs every week. The stoppage of $500 million of funds to the Pakistani military was inevitable, especially since General Kayani had already asked the military aid to be diverted to civilian usage. The expulsion of 100 US “trainers” was demanded by the Corp Commanders and General Kayani and General Pasha had to acquiesce to the demands of rank and file of thePakistani Army. The US has also halted the $300 million in coalition support funds which are being withheld as retribution for lack of progress in attacking North Waziristan. The bottom line is that the US has reached its limits in persuading the Pakistanis to do what they want. Holding back funds is the only leverage the US has. It has now played that card. When General Kayani announced that the Pakistani military will not use US funding, they had already calculated the consequences of denying food and water to the Shamsi Air Base, ostensibly leased out by the UAE to the USA.

The ISI now is hunting down and breaking up the CIAnetwork. The lowest the CIA could ever go was to use Polio eradication for its nefarious purposes. This is a crime against humanity. The tribals have already been suspicions of the Polio drives. The disease has almost been eradicated from the planet. It survives in the remote parts of Pakistan. The CIA has used doctors and the Polio drive for its own profit. This is a huge setback to the Polio drive.

Using doctors to try to get the DNA samples of the OBL compound failed, but it now has grave consequences for world health and US Pakistan relations.

The security outlook for Afghanistan faces unsurmountable issues. In retaliation for the blocked U.S. aid, Pakistan will be obliged to follow through with its threat to withdraw some of his soldiers from the border areas and dismantle more than one thousand border sentry posts. With Leon Panetta taking over as defence secretary the Pakistani military is wary of his new team. The Pakistan military following an independent and more nationalistic strategy against the militants will begin to drawdown its forces in Fata and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

This de facto ceding of territory to the Afghan Taliban has consequences for American war planners. The US is the occupying power in Afghanistan. It has inadvertently or by design left a vacuum in the border area. The Pakistani government suspects US complicity with the TTP and most analysts think that the US forces have given space to the TTP so that it can launch attacks on Pakistan from Afghan soil. Over the past six weeks, the Pakistan army has fired over 760 rockets and artillery shells into three Afghan provinces, killing at least 60 people. This is retaliation for the cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan. As the US attacks areas in FATA, the Pakistani Army will continue to retaliate against the foreign sponsored TTP.

The decision to sanction the Pakistani Army has long term consequences for America. Policymakers in Washington have to live with the risks invloved in alienating a new generation of Pakistan Army officers.

So the game on the chess board continues. As General Petraeus begins his counter-insurgency campaign inside Pakistan, the ISI has been gearing up to thwart that war. Hundreds of US spies have been rounded up.

The covert war in in full gear. President Barack Obama is turning to the CIA director Gen. David Petraeus to implement more quasi-military JSOC type of operations. The CIA’s decade old presence in Pakisan is now being overtly challenged by the ISI. THe CIA director will feel the pressure. Intensifying the covert war and increased drone attacks will have serious consequences of US-Pakistani relations.

General Petraeus is now leading an illegal war. He will be a battlefield commander of a robotic air force and a small army of U.S. and Afghan paramilitaries, many of whom are former special operations soldiers. General Petraeus’s campaign in Pakistan will be a civilian-led covert action, authorized under Title 50 of the United State Code. To Pakistan, it will look a lot like war.

There are international consequences of this illegal war. Beijing overtly and covertly will be the biggest impediment to US machinations. The ocnsistent
Chinese message to its neighbors has been that the US cannot be trusted. They will continue to say “I told you so”.

Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, while on a tour to China was given unprecedented access to some of China’s most important military capabilities. –including a visit to the HQ of China’s Second Artillery Corps, the unit responsible for China’s nuclear deterrent and many of its rapidly-growing missile forces.Admiral Mullen allowed him to sit in the cockpit of a J-11, one of China’s most advanced operational jets, and to inspect a late-model diesel-electric submarine. As America’s banker the Chinese General Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, offered some stinging unsolicited advice for policymakers in Washington. This is just the beginning. As a representative of the country that holds one Trillion Dollars of US debt, the caustic remarks must have pouring sulphuric acid on US sensitivities.

“I know the U.S. is still recovering from the financial crisis,” Chen said. “Under such circumstances, it is still spending a lot of money on its military and isn’t that placing too much pressure on the taxpayers? If the U.S. could reduce its military spending a bit and spend more on improving the livelihood of the American people … wouldn’t that be a better scenario?” General Chen’s carefully crafted message was undoubtedly designed to reinforce doubts about the Pentagon’s ability in the long run to fulfill its security commitments to the region. In other words, Beijing has told Washington, your war efforts in Afghanistan are unsustainable. China already has great friends in the neighborhood. That message resonates in the region.

US officials may choose to ignore Chen’s remarks and carry on with business as usual. However this will have long-term consequences for the region–already a playground for various powers. While China will reassert its right to own the South China Sea, it will continue to thwart US effort to encircle it from the Pamirs.

The Recent visit of President Zardari to Tehran cannot be billed as a routine trip. In the aftermath of US sanctions on the Pakistani military, Tehran has offered to stop in and provide Pakistan with financial and energy help. Tehran has built the IP pipeline right up to its border, and this pipeline needs to be hooked up the Pakistani gas grid at Sibbi. Tehran has also offered 1000 MW of electricity at subsidized rates. There is talk of cooperation on Afghanistan and resistance to the CIA. THe two countries will probably form joint networks to weed out CIA spies from both countries.

The Pakistan military is in the process of initiating peace deals with the militants. With a chagrined China, an angry Iran, an upset Pakistani military “and a despondent President Karzai, the shattered US exit strategy in Afghanistan is in pieces. If the US cannot count on Pakistani help in disengaging from Afghanistan, it will be stuck in the quagmire-— and this may as well cost Mr. Obama his elections.

As Confucius said–”we live in interesting times”